Posts Tagged ‘chart analysis’

Whistling Past The Graveyard?

Whistling Past The Graveyard?

Courtesy of Karl Denninger, The Market Ticker 

In less than two minutes, here it is…. 

 


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SPY Intraday Sept 25 Shows Triangle and Mega Divergence

[Note: Adam at Market Club just sent out this new video on Crude, Trend Lines, and the Fibonacci retracement tool.]

Now, Binve brings us another "massive chart dump" and he’s not kidding. Here’s all you want to know about charts leading into next week’s trading. - Ilene

Another Massive Chart Dump / P2 Analysis Wrap-Up

Courtesy of Binve at Market Thoughts and Analysis

I wrote the first iteration of this post here (A Massive Chart Dump – P2 Analysis Wrap-Up) on Aug 29. There are three main reasons why I wrote that post at that time, saying that the end of P2 [end of the up trend] would be soon:

1) There was a 5 wave count up from the Aug 18 low that could possibly have served as a C wave to finish P2 (obviously it didn’t)
2) There was a possible ending diagonal setup, identified here: So the Diagonal Walks Up to the Two and Says…,
3) Our first born child was due any day (was actually born on Sept 3) and I knew I would not have time to watch the market anytime around then. So I figured I might as well write a post calling for the top soon, because I might not get a chance while it was actually happening :) . LOL!

Well, as we all know, Mr. Market does not do anything obviously. And since then we had a big pullback, then a big rally, then a dramatic and confusing spike with a large pullback. … which brings us to now.

So what is up?

That is what I will explore in this post. I will most assuredly not be getting this 100% right. But in the past few weeks we have received a few glimpses of what Mr. Market’s intentions may be. And I will give my interpretation. Hopefully it is useful, or at the very least, an entertaining read.

… On to the analysis!

…. And by "Chart Dump", I don’t mean all these charts belong in the toilet.

I wish Primary 2 was done, I *want* Primary 2 to be done. Why? Several reasons. Mainly because this rally is "fake". It is a countertrend rally in a overall secular bear market. And countertrend rallies are fine. In fact, they can be fun! Traders can make money…
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A Massive Chart Dump – P2 Analysis Wrap-Up

A Massive Chart Dump – P2 Analysis Wrap-Up

Courtesy of Binve at Market Thoughts and Analysis

…. And by "Chart Dump", I don’t mean all these charts belong in the toilet :)

So like I said on Friday, I wish Primary 2 was done, I *want* Primary 2 to be done. I just don’t think it is done. But I do think it is very close to being done, next week looks very likely for the top.

But the whole point of this post is to look at a whole host of indices, sectors, asset classes, and sentiment indicators to show that there are some very substantial divergences taking place. Some of the "leader indices" show that they have already potentially topped (are not making higher highs with the broader markets). The Dollar and the VIX may have already bottomed. Volume is drying up (or at least substantially declining) in most of the indicies. In short a lot of the signs that we expect to see with Primary Wave 2 have occurred, and things are more or less "on track" for a large trend change in equities.

The other reason for this massive update this weekend is that our first born child is due any day now, and my blogging and chart updates will drop off dramatically next month. binve’s life is about to get a lot more interesting.

This post contains a lot of charts that I show often, but every chart is completely updated with new annotations and analysis. I believe it is a useful post and tells the picture of the markets from a macro view. Enjoy!

The Primary Wave 2 Checklist

There are several signals that we should see that help to let us know we are at the end of Primary Wave 2. There are some characteristics that Elliott (and then Frost and Prechter later) put forth that would describe some of the technical, fundamental and sentiment aspects of Wave 2. Here are some of those (modified to be bullish, as this Wave 2 is bullish):

From EWP: “Second Waves often retrace so much of Wave one that most of the losses endured are gained back by the time it ends. At this point investors are thoroughly convinced that the bull market is here to stay. Second waves typically end on very low volume…
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A Quick Daily Look at Google and Intel

A Quick Daily Look at Google GOOG and Intel INTC

Courtesy of Corey at Afraid to Trade

With Google (GOOG) announcing earnings that ‘disappointed’ Thursday night and Intel’s (INTC) earnings earlier in the week surprised, let’s take a quick look as of July 17th at these two market moving stocks.

First, with Google (GOOG):

google chart

Google, like Apple (AAPL), has been in a very strong uptrend off the early March lows.  With only one pullback before the June highs, price rose almost without pausing.

risky, playing earnings, rolling diceThe run-up into the June high was tremendously powerful (that’s why people trade Google – for the action and volatility) which terminated in a doji that gapped up into an exhaustion/reversal bar just above $440.

We had an “abc” move down off those highs into what appears to have formed a “double top” at prior resistance with a slight negative momentum divergence.

Notice how volume spiked Thursday as traders/investors took positions in expectation of blow-away profits (similar perhaps to Intel).  Playing the ‘earnings game’ can be very risky, as expectations were not met by Google’s latest announcement.  We are now in a ‘pullback/retracement’ mode.

Next, on to Intel (INTC):

Intel Chart

As opposed to Google, expectations for Intel (INTC) were  lower, and so better than expected numbers caused the stock to surge, driving the S&P minis up nine points after Tuesday’s close (which preceded a trend day on Wednesday… though strangely enough Intel formed a doji on Wednesday and a ‘trend day’ on Thursday).

Volume surged to a new 2009 high as did price and the 3/10 momentum oscillator – all signs of fresh and enduring momentum that should lead to higher prices in the established up-trend (though expect a pullback/retracement instead of a parabolic rally – the new momentum high indicates a short-term overbought reading, as do all oscillators).

So it’s a different picture as painted by two market leaders.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

Photo:  A Winning Miss, Buxom woman rolling dice, copyrighted by Art Photo Co., Grand Rapids, Mich, Wikipedia.

 


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Phil's Favorites

Mr. Morgan

 

Mr. Morgan

Courtesy of 

The Federal Reserve had a precursor before it became the lender of last resort. It wasn’t an institution or a government department. It was a single, solitary man named J. Pierpont Morgan. Mr. Morgan, he was called in the newspapers, and you didn’t need to go any further – everyone knew to whom you were referring.

Stock market panics were common in the early 1900’s because of the agrarian nature of the economy. Each summer, the local banks that catered to farmers throughout the country began calling their money back from the banks in New York City and Chicago so they could raise enough capital to bring in the h...



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Zero Hedge

Anatomy Of The $2 Trillion COVID-19 Stimulus Bill

Courtesy of Visual Capitalist

The unprecedented response to the COVID-19 pandemic has prioritized keeping people apart to slow the spread of the virus. While measures such as business closures and travel restrictions are effective at fighting a pandemic, they also have a dramatic impact on the economy.

To help right the ship, the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act — also known as the CARES Act — was passed by U.S. lawmakers last week with little fanfare. The act became the largest economic stimulus bill in modern history, more than doubling the stimulus act passed in 2009 during the Financial Crisis. ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

The new coronavirus emerged from the global wildlife trade - and may be devastating enough to end it

 

The new coronavirus emerged from the global wildlife trade – and may be devastating enough to end it

Government officers seize civets in a wildlife market in Guangzhou, China to prevent the spread of the SARS disease, Jan. 5, 2004. Dustin Shum/South China Morning Post via Getty Images

Courtesy of George Wittemyer, Colorado State University

COVID-19 is one of countless emerging infectious diseases that are zoonotic, meaning they originate in animals. ...



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Members' Corner

Tinker, Tailor, Mobster, Trump

 

Tinker, Tailor, Mobster, Trump

What happens when a Confidential Informant becomes President?

Courtesy of Greg Olear, at PREVAIL, author of Dirty Rubles: An Introduction to Trump/Russia

...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Fear Indicators Creating Huge Bearish Reversal Patterns This Month?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Its been a rough month for Stocks and Crude Oil. Could these two indicators be suggesting that a panic in fear has run out of steam?

This 2-pack looks at the fear indicators in the Nasdaq (VXN) and Crude Oil (OVX).

Both were at the highest levels in years back in 2008. Both peaked in 2008, as they created monthly bearish reversal patterns.

Turing the page to March of 2020, the Nasdaq fear index could be double topping at t...



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Insider Scoop

Strategist Channels His Inner Elsa, Says Apple Investors Need To Let It Go

Courtesy of Benzinga

The "Frozen" character Elsa famously declared it's time to "let it go" when her dark secret has been discovered. Boris Schlossberg of BK Asset Management has a similar message to Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) investors.

'Absolutely' No Discretionary Spending

The market is guilty of "utterly underestimating" the ultimate economic impact the ...



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Chart School

Big moving Averages and macro investment decisions

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

When price is falling every one wonders where demand will come in.


RTT black screen Tv videos study the simplest measure of price (simple moving average). What has happen before guides us now. 














Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Digital Currencies

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

 

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

Get used to it. Anastasiia Bakai

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

Anyone holding bitcoin would have watched the market with alarm in recent weeks. The virtual currency, whose price other cryptocurrencies like ethereum and litecoin largely follow, plummeted from more than US$10,000 (£8,206) in mid-February to briefly below US$4,000 on March 13. Despite recovering to the mid-US$6,000s at the time of writin...



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The Technical Traders

These Index Charts Will Calm You Down

Courtesy of Technical Traders

I put together this video that will calm you down, because knowing where are within the stock market cycles, and the economy makes all the difference.

This is the worst time to be starting a business that’s for sure. I have talked about this is past videos and events I attended that bear markets are fantastic opportunities if you can retain your capital until late in the bear market cycle. If you can do this, you will find countless opportunities to invest money. From buying businesses, franchises, real estate, equipment, and stocks at a considerable discount that would make today’s prices look ridiculous (which they are).

Take a quick watch of this video because it shows you ...



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ValueWalk

Entrepreneurial activity and business ownership on the rise

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Indicating strong health of entrepreneurship, both entrepreneurial activity and established business ownership in the United States have trended upwards over the past 19 years, according to the 2019/2020 Global Entrepreneurship Monitor Global Report, released March 3rd in Miami at the GEM Annual Meeting.

Q4 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The Benefit Of Entrepreneurial Activity ...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.