Posts Tagged ‘China’s economy’

Will The EU’s Collapse Push The World Deeper Into The Great Depression II?

Will The EU’s Collapse Push The World Deeper Into The Great Depression II?

Courtesy of Timothy D. Naegele[1]

First World War

“For want of a nail . . .  the kingdom was lost.”[2] Will Greece’s debt crisis lead to a Greek debt default and the collapse of the euro and an ensuing collapse of the 27-member European Union (or EU), and trigger the next round of crashes that will be described by economic historians decades from now as “the Great Depression II”?[3] The assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria and his wife in Sarajevo, Serbia brought the tensions between Austria-Hungary and Serbia to a head.  In turn, it is said this triggered a chain of international events that embroiled Russia and the major European powers; and World War I broke out in Europe.[4] Will Greece’s debt crisis set a series of events in motion that sends the world into a downward economic spiral of unfathomable proportions?

For years, I have wrestled with the question of whether the Europe would collapse economically, politically, socially and militarily.  Sounds absurd, you say?  The countries are too interwoven and mutually dependent now for that to happen, and at the very least they will muddle along, making the worst of the best situations, and achieving the lowest common denominator?  The United States of Europe, they are not and never will be, but they have achieved a degree of cohesiveness that I never thought was likely years ago.

I believed jealousies and rivalries and, yes, the hatreds of the past would linger barely beneath the surface, coming unglued at the most inopportune times when it really mattered the most.  When the chips were down, I felt the EU would splinter and fall apart; and that its participants and the world would write it off as a noble experiment that failed, much like the League of Nations.  After all, its successor—the United Nations—is considered to be a colossal joke by Americans, many of whom would love to see it shipped to Europe, and its building on the East River in Manhattan bulldozed and turned into a park, or made into co-ops or condominiums.

The bitter hatreds of the past seem to have subsided in Europe though, and it has become a cultural melting pot, more and more.  Airbus was the first tangible sign of economic integration that I never thought would…
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When Will China’s Bubble Burst?

When Will China’s Bubble Burst?

A sales agent waits for customer in front of the model of a property development at the 5th China (Shenzhen) Real Estate Fair, in the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen

Courtesy of Washington’s Blog

As Bloomberg notes, Marc Faber thinks China may crash in 9 to 12 months, and hedge fund manager Jim Chanos and Harvard University’s Kenneth Rogoff are also warning of a crash.

Nouriel Roubini told Bloomberg:

In China, where property prices rose at a record pace in April and consumer prices climbed at the fastest rate in 18 months, the economy faces the risk of a “significant slowdown,” Roubini said.

“China should be tightening monetary policy, increasing interest rates and let its currency appreciate over time,” he said. “They are too slow, they are not doing it fast enough.”

On April 20th, BusinessWeek wrote:

China’s Shanghai Composite Index may drop as much as 6 percent after breaching the 250-day moving average for the first time in a year, Shenyin & Wanguo Securities Co. said.

The benchmark gauge plunged 4.8 percent to 2,980.3 yesterday, the most in eight months, on concern government measures to curb real estate speculation will slow economic growth. The index may extend losses until reaching the next support level of 2,803…

Yesterday, Calculated Risk noted that the Shanghai composite is continuing down: 

Keep an eye on the Shanghai index (in red). It appears China’s economy is slowing.

This graph shows the Shanghai SSE Composite Index and the S&P 500 (in blue).

The SSE Composite Index is at 2,622.67 mid-day – down about 300 points from 2 weeks ago. 

[Click here for full chart]

Vincent Fernando notes that Beijing property prices are starting to fall rapidly (and that Shanghai is next), as China clamps down on the property bubble.

As MarketWatch notes:

China’s economy is teetering on the edge of a major slowdown … according to a noted China strategist.

David Roche, an economic and political analyst who manages the Hong Kong-based hedge fund Independent Strategy, says the world’s third-largest economy is now on the brink, faced with the inevitable reckoning that follows an extended bank-lending binge.

"We’ve got the beginnings of a credit-bubble collapse in China," said Roche, predicting the economy will likely cool from its stellar double-digit growth rate to a 6% annual expansion as a result.

While that may not sound bad, Roche believes the collateral damage from the cooling will be anything but mild, as the banking sector comes under pressure from cumulative


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China: Economic Catastrophe Unfolding

China: Economic Catastrophe Unfolding

china real estateBy Terence Doherty, guest author

Here’s some recent news about the real estate markets in China. I think it is fascinating watching how these things unfold. This proves once again that the lesson of history is that we don’t learn the lessons of history.

I predicted over 2 years ago that the Chinese stock markets would implode dramatically, much to everybody’s disbelief and skepticism. It began a few months sooner than I thought, but, that is exactly what has happened. Now for the last year or so, I have predicted that things will get VERY bad in the Chinese real estate markets over the next several years. Again, most people I have talked to about this (especially Chinese) have almost universally dismissed this notion as absurd.

But this is not just a guess.  When you read these articles, you will see just some of the evidence that leads me to this conclusion. There are a lot of data on this, and most of it comes from statistics issued by various Chinese government agencies. But it is not advertised by the mainland press or TV.   So, many Chinese are not at all aware, and think that everything will soon be wonderful, because that is pretty much what they constantly hear from the official media.

That is one thing I noticed immediately about China: there is a constant barrage everywhere you turn—-TV, advertisements, magazines, newspapers, billboards, etc.—-that essentially suggests that everything is wonderful and getting more wonderful all the time, and everybody is just happy, happy, happy, and China is getting better and better and stronger and stronger.  I was really struck by this. It was like living in a never-ending infomercial. Maybe some go to China and are not very aware of this, but to me it was like a constant din.

Actually, at least some of this data is readily available on the mainland. But it requires digging.  The official news agencies like Xinhua and the People’s Daily just keep repeating the same mindless mantra in endlessly varying ways every day: “Everything is good, there are only a few small little problems, but the Motherland is unstoppable and will just get mightier and mightier.” If the Falun Gong would just chant that mantra, they would get to keep their organs and they would have no more problems in China. 

 

 

The news here…
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The Science Behind the $13 Billion Medical Cannabis Industry

 

The Science Behind the $13 Billion Medical Cannabis Industry

By , Visual Capitalist 

 

The Science Behind the Medical Cannabis Industry

There’s nothing quite like cannabis in the plant kingdom. Beneath its humble surface, over 750 unique compounds exist within – all of which have helped propel the cannabis industry into the multi-billion dollar market it is today.

Today’s infographic from ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold is Knocking on a Key Breakout Level

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

For the past 5 years, Gold prices have traded sideways. There were plenty of “trades” to be made, but that type of price action tends to grind out long-term bulls and bears.

You can see this in today’s “monthly” closing chart for Gold (shown below).

Gold bulls caught a break recently when Gold broke out above its multi-year downtrend line at (1) and (2). This spurred a big advance in metals & mining stocks.

Can Gold bugs and bulls keep the momentum going? We should find out shortly.

Gold is currently knocking on a key breakout resistance level (3). A bullish message will be sent to bulls if Gold can breakout above the 2017 m...



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Zero Hedge

Trump: "I Want 5G, Or Even 6G, Tech In The US As Soon As Possible"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

President Trump has finally hit upon the real issue at the center of the US government's battle with Huawei: It's all about the technology. To wit, one reason why US allies and the UK and Germany have been so hesitant to cut ties with the Chinese telecoms giant is that, as its founder pointed out in a recent interview with Western media, there is no real alternative. US telecoms like Verizon still lag their Chinese rivals when it comes to 5G.

So, in a series of tweets sent Thursday morning, President Trump exclaimed that "I want 5G, and even 6G technology in the United States as soon as ...



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ValueWalk

Liquid Technology Clinches Bid To Dispose Theranos IT Assets

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Liquid Technology Provides Theranos With Post-Shutdown Equipment Processing and Recycling

Theranos [Public domain], via Wikimedia CommonsThe Company Spearheaded the Biotech Start-Up’s Task of Decommissioning and Reselling of Thousands of Unneeded IT Assets

Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc

...

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Insider Scoop

Seaport Global Initiates Bullish Coverage On A Dozen Cannabis Stocks

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Seaport Global turned bullish on cannabis stocks Thursday, initiating coverage on a dozen names. However, some of the most popular U.S. cannabis stocks are not among the firm’s top picks.

The Analyst

Seaport Global analyst Brett Hundley initiated coverage of the following cannabis stocks with Buy ratings:

  • Aphria Inc (NYSE: APHA), $18 target.
  • Hexo Corp...


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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Thursday, 02 August 2018, 07:48:20 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: $600 BN interest payments for US gov, print baby print



Date Found: Sunday, 05 August 2018, 09:22:26 PM

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Comment: Hire FED interest rates always brings double trouble



Date Found: Monday, 06 August ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptos Are Surging: Bitcoin, Ethereum Hit One-Month Highs As Institutions Dip Toes

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Cryptocurrencies are surging while the US equity markets take the day off. Ethereum is up over 18% from Friday's 'close' and the rest of the crypto space is a sea of green. While no immediate catalyst (headline or technical level) is clear, increasing chatter over institutional investors dipping their toes in the space have prompted an extension of the positive trend.

A sea of green...

Source: Coin360

Ethereum is leading the charge follow...



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Biotech

Cancer: new DNA sequencing technique analyses tumours cell by cell to fight disease

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Cancer: new DNA sequencing technique analyses tumours cell by cell to fight disease

Illustration of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, showing lymphoblasts in blood. Kateryna Kon/Shutterstock

Courtesy of Alba Rodriguez-Meira, University of Oxford and Adam Mead, University of Oxford

...

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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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