Posts Tagged ‘Collar trades’

How to Make Profits in Your Spare Time

 

Option Sage submits:

I saw an infomercial from Fisher Investments where Ken Fisher mentioned 3 attributes that he believes are keys to successful investing which can be crudely summarized as follows:

[1]  Focus on long-term investing

[2]  Expect surprises

[3]  Stay ahead of the crowd by knowing what others don’t

The first point is certainly critical and weeds out the greedy ‘get-rich-quick’ traders from the patient traders.  Our policy here is that of ‘play-to-win’.  We like to be aggressive in seeking profits with short-term plays but we also recognize that if those trades don’t work out that we can still rely on longer term plays to end up profitable in the end. 

The second point regarding expecting surprises asks the trader the question “Are you managing risk well and do you have contingency plans in mind each time you enter a trade?”  While the second part of the sentence is important, the first is paramount!  No matter what you do, never violate risk management rules which we have discussed here in the past.

The third point is a luxury in my view.  Of course, it would be nice to know what others don’t but it’s not critical.  By definition only a small number can have information that the rest of the crowd does not have so if you are not trading full-time you have to find another way of making money without relying on staying ahead of the crowd.

As I was scanning for trades over the weekend, I came across one trade which might in fact fall into the category of offering relatively attractive profits by relying on options rather than additional information.  In fact, I know many of our members find it hard to focus on the daily trades and would like to construct virtual portfolios with the longer-term in mind.  As Phil mentioned in his classic "James Bond Investing" article, playing short-term positions requires constant vigilance and you need to ready to turn on a dime with…
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Just Another Manic Monday – The Inverted Risk Pyramid

This is going to be fun!

69230.strip

We already have a bigger boost than we expected in the futures market.  After extensively reviewing our picks (generally bearish) from last week's action we determined that even 55% is too bearish as we pop over our breakout levels.  So we added more picks to our very bullish Watch List, held an extensive conversation on Mattress Plays in Member Chat (just in case) and dug through the dirt looking for "green shoots" in our weekend reading – all to help us get more comfortable with the bullish plays IF we break over our watch levels and hold them (3 of 5 at least):  Dow 9,829, S&P 1,071, Nas 2,146,  NYSE 7,047 and Russell 620.

Also, just in case, we reviewed the Collar Strategy, which is a very useful way to use options to lock in long-term profits, which can have nice tax advantages if you can benefit from hanging onto things over 12 months.  Japan is closed and Asian stocks fell off on low-volume trading.  “The question is whether the rally has over-extended beyond the confirmation of economic stability that we’ve seen,” said Jason Teh, who helps manage about $3.2 billion at Investors Mutual Ltd. in Sydney. “It’s still hard to know exactly where the world’s going to go, and the degree of growth remains very hard to quantify.”  The Hang Seng dropped 200 points (1%), back to 21,299 and the Shanghai fell half a point but India went the other way (industrial output up 10.4%), along with Singapore, who are claiming a 14.9% rise in GDP – how's that for a green shoot?

The futures went wild at 3 am, when Europe opened, and those markets are up over 1% on continuing news that the dollar is being dumped.  This time we have an article in Bloomberg indicating that Central Banks have printed over $400Bn in new money last quarter, bringing their holdings up to $7.3Tn, yet only 37% of that money went into the US dollar.  The dollar’s 37 percent share of new reserves fell from about a 63 percent average since 1999. Sever Englander of BCS concluded in a report that the trend “accelerated” in the third quarter. He…
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Study: Option Collar Strategy Beats Buy and Hold by 65%

From the Options Industry Council:

The results of a new study examining the use of options in a collar strategy (both active and passive implementations) on the PowerShares QQQ™ exchange-traded fund (ETF) show it provides superior returns to the traditional buy and hold strategy while reducing risk by almost 65%.

The Options Industry Council (OIC) is pleased to note the study reaffirms the risk management potential of equity options, finding that during the entire 10-year study period, including the sub-periods around the tech bubble and credit crisis, collars significantly outperformed the QQQ, providing much needed capital protection.

Loosening Your Collar: Alternative Implementations of QQQ Collars,” by Edward Szado and Thomas Schneeweis, looked at data from March 1999 to May 2009. It concluded that over the entire 122 month period the passive collar returned almost 150%, while the QQQ lost one-third of its value. The active collar outperformed both strategies and returned more than 200%. 

Additionally, the study simulated a collar on a small-cap mutual fund. The return of the active mutual fund collar was four times the return of the fund, while the standard deviation was about one-third lower. The study was conducted by the Isenberg School of Management’s Center for International Securities and Derivatives Markets (CISDM) at the University of Massachusetts.

Typically, you want to employ a collar to protect a dividend-paying stock from losing value.  We employed this strategy successfully in our last $100K Virtual Portfolio with KMP, who pay a healthy 7.6% dividend but had fallen 35% in 6 months in March.  As we were re-entering the position back at $40 (with a 10% dividend), we were happy to be in it just for the premiums

The study makes for a very interesting read.  We do not employ full collars very often but they are a very useful strategy to know as you can "lock down" your positions when the markets get rough and it's also a great way to vacation-proof your virtual portfolio without having to alter your existing positions.  Also, as noted in the study, an active management approach – like the one we employ in our buy/writes (rolling the short positions along) leads to the greatest benefits over time.  As the OIC says about the strategy:

This strategy offers the stock protection of a put. However, in…
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Zero Hedge

China Growth Slows To 29 Year Low In 2019 Despite Q4 Rebound

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

With phase-one talks completed in October (and signed this week), tonight's Q4 GDP and December smorgasbord of data is being keenly watched by the market for any signs that China's massive credit stimulus has actually done any good at all.

Ahead of tonight's key China data dump, State Grid, China's largest utility company, has warned the rate of economic growth in the country could plunge to 4% within the next four years, according to internal forecasts.

"We were upbeat about China...



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Phil's Favorites

Russian government resignation: what's just happened and what's in store for Putin beyond 2024?

 

Russian government resignation: what's just happened and what's in store for Putin beyond 2024?

Courtesy of Graeme Gill, University of Sydney

News came from Moscow overnight that the Russian government had resigned, followed by the announcement that Putin would be recommending the current prime minister Dmitry Medvedev be replaced by the head of the tax office, Mikhail Mishustin.

Why has the government resigned, and what does it mean for the future?

Prior to the government’s resignation, President Vladimir Putin announced a series of proposed changes to the constitution to be placed before the people in a future referendum. I...



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Insider Scoop

10 Biggest Price Target Changes For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Citigroup lifted Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) price target from $145 to $170. Caterpillar closed at $147.87 on Thursday.
  • UBS cut Twitter Inc (NYSE: TWTR) price target from $37 to $35. Twitter shares closed at $34.19 on Thursday.
  • Morgan Stanley boosted the price target for Yum! Brands, Inc. (NYSE: YUM) from $113 to $118. Yum! Brands closed at $102.16 on Thursday.
  • Jefferies lifted the price target on Ventas, Inc. (NYSE: ...


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Kimble Charting Solutions

Tesla About To Run Out Of Energy Here? Short-Term Peak Possible?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Tesla (TSLA) has been screaming higher of late, as very impressive gains have taken place.

Is Tesla about to run out of energy/take a break/experience some selling pressure? A unique price setup is in play, that bulls might want want to be aware of.

This chart applies Fibonacci to the 2016 lows and 2017 highs at each (1). The impressive rally of late has it testing its 161% extension level, based upon those price points.

At the same time, it is hitting its 161% extension level, it finds itself at the top of a 7-year rising channel, with momentum hitting the highest ...



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Chart School

Gold Gann Angle Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

The new year of 2020 has gold is poised to break out higher. Why is gold going higher? Maybe the FED's economists can explain .... or not.

Maybe these could be on the list:

- FED repo hundreds of billions a day.
- ECB made up tools to keep the European banks solvent.
- A sugar high stock market with Apple Inc and Microsoft looking like Bitcoin 2017.
- The US bond market is NOT confirming a strong stock market.
- Corporate profits have flat lined for 3 years while stocks soared each year.
- Knowing an US election year needs stimulus, and a lower US dollar is a first choice.
- China deal, will have a currency element to make it easier to do business. Lower US dollar.



Gold Gann Angle ...

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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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The Technical Traders

Is The Energy Sector Setting Up Another Great Entry?

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Another wild week for oil traders with missiles flying and huge overnight price swings in crude. As we recently pointed out within our current Oil research article, Oil and the Energy sector may be setting up for another great trade.  We recently commented on how the supply/demand situation for oil has changed over the past 20+ years. 

With US oil production near highs and a sh...



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Digital Currencies

Cryptos Have Surged Since Soleimani Death, Bitcoin Tops $8,000

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Bitcoin is up over 15% since the assassination of Iran General Soleimani...

Source: Bloomberg

...topping $8,000 for the first time since before Thanksgiving...

Source: Bloomberg

Testing its key 100-day moving-average for the first time since October...

...



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Members' Corner

Tobin Smith: Foxocracy, the 2020 Election, and the Stock Market

 

For decades, Fox News has been spreading false information and hooking its audience into an angry, xenophobic and paranoid worldview. It's no mystery that Fox was instrumental in the 2016 election -- but how did it do it? How did it gain so much influence? Tobin Smith, CEO of Transformity Research, Inc. and former Fox News contributor and talk show host, explores this phenomenon and discusses Fox News’ emotionally predatory and partisan propaganda media strategies and tactics in his new book, ...



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Biotech

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

A vial of insulin. Prices for the drug, crucial for those with diabetes, have soared in recent years. Oleksandr Nagaiets/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Vanderbilt University

About 7.4 million people ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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