Posts Tagged ‘computer algorithm’

Yield Curve Happenings: Long Bond Yield Drops, Everything Else Rising

Yield Curve Happenings: Long Bond Yield Drops, Everything Else Rising

Courtesy of Mish

Curve Watchers Anonymous noted an interesting thing on Friday and again today. The long end of the yield curve is rallying or steady (yields declining), while the middle portion of the curve is selling off (yields rising).

This happened on Friday and again today.

Yield Curve as of Friday’s Close (2009-12-11)

[click on charts to enlarge]

Yield Curve as of Monday (2009-12-14 15:21 EST)

On Friday, the 2-year, 3-year, 5-year and 7-year yields rose, with the 5-year and 7-year yields rising more than the 10-year yield. The long bond yield dropped.

Today, the long bond (30-year) treasury yield is lower again, with the 10-year yield flat, while the 2-year, 3-year and 5-year yields are rising.

This is not normal action to say the least.

On December 11, in Yield Curve Steepest Since 1980; Hard Times Ahead in 2010 I stated "Judging from action in the 5-year treasury, it appears as if there is a long 3-to-5 year, short 30-year trade in play."

Here is a chart I made last Thursday, and posted Friday.

Yield Curve As Of December 10 2009

Flashback July 16, 2009: Pimco Says Improving Economy to Steepen Yield Curve

The difference between Treasury two- and 10-year yields may widen to record levels set last month as the U.S. economy recovers, according to Pacific Investment Management Co., which runs the world’s biggest bond fund.

“Long-term rates will rise at a faster speed than short- term rates,” Pimco portfolio manager Tony Crescenzi wrote in a report distributed by e-mail early in the Asian trading day. “Market participants decided months ago that the Armageddon scenario was out and stabilization was in,” he said.

The so-called yield curve steepened to as much as 2.62 percentage points today, the most in almost four weeks. It rose to a record 2.82 percentage points on June 5 as investors demanded greater compensation for the risk that growth will spark inflation. Just a week ago, investors said the curve would narrow on signs the global economic recovery was petering out.

Clearly that was a good play and I congratulate PIMCO.

Should the pattern from today and last Friday continue, it would be a reversal of a long 3-to-5 year, short 30-year trade in play.

Certainly,


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Phil's Favorites

An infectious disease expert explains new federal rules on 'mix-and-match' vaccine booster shots

 

An infectious disease expert explains new federal rules on ‘mix-and-match’ vaccine booster shots

Discuss with your doctor whether or not you need a booster – and if so, which vaccine will work best for you. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News via Getty Images

Courtesy of Glenn J. Rapsinski, University of Pittsburgh Health Sciences

Many Americans now have the green light to get a COVID-19 vaccine booster – and the flexibility to receive a different brand than the ori...



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Biotech/COVID-19

An infectious disease expert explains new federal rules on 'mix-and-match' vaccine booster shots

 

An infectious disease expert explains new federal rules on ‘mix-and-match’ vaccine booster shots

Discuss with your doctor whether or not you need a booster – and if so, which vaccine will work best for you. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News via Getty Images

Courtesy of Glenn J. Rapsinski, University of Pittsburgh Health Sciences

Many Americans now have the green light to get a COVID-19 vaccine booster – and the flexibility to receive a different brand than the ori...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin: why its value has rocketed once again

 

Bitcoin: why its value has rocketed once again

Shutterstock/rzoze19

Courtesy of Andrew Urquhart, University of Reading

Bitcoin’s journey into mainstream finance has reached another major milestone – and another record price. The cryptocurrency was trading at US$66,975 (£48,456) following the launch of an exchange traded fund (ETF) in the US w...



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Zero Hedge

CFTC Awards Almost $200 Million To Deutsche Bank Whistleblower

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

In a release out Thursday, the CFTC said it had issued a monstrous $200 million whistleblower award to someone whose "specific, credible, and timely original information significantly contributed to an already open investigation and led to a successful enforcement action, as well as to the success of two related actions, by a U.S. federal regulator and a foreign regulator."

It marks the largest payout ever by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Informatio...



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Chart School

Price and Volume Swing Analysis on Bitcoin and Silver

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Many take guidance from news, pundits or advisors. Well sometimes the swings of price and volume are a better measure of what happens next.

The big boys do not accumulate or distribute in single 1 second trade, they build positions over weeks, months and years. They use price swings in the market to build or reduce positions, and you can see their intent by studying swings of price and volume and applying Tim Ord logic as written in his book called 'The Secret Science of Price and Volume: Techniques for Spotting Market Trends, Hot Sectors, and the Best Stocks'.

Tim Ord is a follower of Richard Wyckoff logic, his book has added to the studies of Richard Wyckoff, Richard Ney and Bob Evans.

Richard Wyckoff after years of...

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Politics

Steve Bannon faces criminal charges over Jan. 6 panel snub, setting up a showdown over executive privilege

 

Steve Bannon faces criminal charges over Jan. 6 panel snub, setting up a showdown over executive privilege

Defiant or following Trump’s direction? John Lamparski/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Courtesy of Kirsten Carlson, Wayne State University

The House committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol is tasked with providing as full an account as possible of the attempted insurrection. But there is a problem: Not everyone is cooperating.

As of Oct. 14, 2021, Steve Bannon, a one-tim...



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Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider





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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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