Posts Tagged ‘Conquer the Crash’

What To Do With Your Pension Plan

What To Do With Your Pension Plan

Couple Sitting by Lake

Courtesy of Elliott Wave International 

Robert Prechter’s Conquer the Crash foresaw and explained nearly every chapter of today’s financial crisis, years before it happened. Enjoy your 8 free chapters from the book with this free Club EWI report; here’s a quick excerpt from chapter 23, "What To Do With Your Pension Plan." Note especially the last two paragraphs.

Make sure you fully understand all aspects of your government’s individual retirement plans. In the U.S., this includes such structures as IRAs, 401Ks and Keoghs. If you anticipate severe system-wide financial and political stresses, you may decide to liquidate any such plans and pay whatever penalty is required. Why?

Because there are strings attached to the perk of having your money sheltered from taxes. You may do only what the government allows you to do with the money. It restricts certain investments and can change the list at any time. It charges a penalty for early withdrawal and can change the amount of the penalty at any time.

What is the worst that could happen? In Argentina, the government continued to spend more than it took in until it went broke trying to pay the interest on its debt. In December 2001, it seized $2.3 billion dollars worth of deposits in private pension funds to pay its bills.

In the 1930s, the world heard a lot of populist rhetoric about why “rich” people should be plundered for the public good. It is easy to imagine such talk in the next crisis, directed at requiring wealthy people to forfeit their retirement savings for the good of the nation.

With the retirement setup in the U.S., the government need not be as direct as Argentina’s. It need merely assert, after a stock market fall decimates many people’s savings, that stocks are too risky to hold for retirement purposes. Under the guise of protecting you, it could ban stocks and perhaps other investments in tax-exempt pension plans and restrict assets to one category: “safe” long-term U.S. Treasury bonds.

Then it could raise the penalty of early withdrawal to 100 percent. Bingo. The government will have seized the entire $2 trillion — or what’s left of it given a crash — that today is held in government-sponsored, tax-deferred 401K private pension plans. I’m not saying it will happen, but it could, and wouldn’t you rather…
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Bob Prechter’s “Conquer The Crash”

Bob Prechter’s "Conquer The Crash": Eight Chapters For Free

Shares Of Freddie Mac And Fannie Mae Continue Sharp Decline

By Nico Isaac of Elliott Wave International

When Robert Prechter sat down to write the first edition of "Conquer The Crash" in 2002,… the major blue-chip averages were rebounding off a historic bottom, the notorious dot.com bust was making way for a powerful housing boom, Fannie Mae’s chief executive was named “the most confident CEO in America,” President George Bush was enjoying a 60%-plus approval rating, Gulf War II hadn’t begun yet, and when it did, a “quick and easy victory” was supposed to follow, and the Federal Reserve was largely credited with slaying the big, bad bear via the sharp blade of monetary policy.

Five years later, the tables turned. The U.S. housing market endured its worst downturn since the Great Depression; Fannie Mae’s CEO was ousted amidst a mortgage crisis of incalculable damage. George W. Bush left the oval office with a record low approval rating of 25%, and the expected “cakewalk” victory in Iraq became a “quagmire” and national dilemma.

Anticipating these and other “shocks” to the global system is the unparalleled achievement of “Conquer The Crash.” Here, the following excerpts from the book put any doubt to rest:

Iconic Houses

Housing: “What screams bubble – giant historic bubble – in real estate is the system-wide extension of massive amount of credit.” And “Home equity loans are brewing a terrible disaster.”

Bonds: “The unprecedented mass of vulnerable bonds extant today is on the verge of a waterfall of downgrading.”

Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac: “Investors in these companies’ stocks and bonds will be just as surprised when the stock prices and bond ratings collapse.”

Politics: “Look for nations and states to split and shrink.” And — “The Middle East should be a complete disaster.”

Credit Expansion Schemes “have always ended in a bust.” And — “Like the discomfort of drug addiction withdrawal, the discomfort of credit addiction withdrawal cannot be avoided.”

Banks: “Banks are not just lent to the hilt, they’re past it. In a fearful market, liquidity even on these so called ‘securities’ [corporate, municipal, and mortgage-backed bonds] will dry up.” (176)

The tools in Bob Prechter’s analytical toolbox, Elliott wave analysis and socionomics, enabled him to predict these “sea changes” in the economic, social, and political landscape.  What else do the pages…
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3 BIG Reasons To Avoid Stocks

3 BIG Reasons To Avoid Stocks

Courtesy of Elliott Wave International

AIG just made a BIG comeback: it announced its first profitable quarter after seven quarters of losses on Friday. (Let’s all light a CIGar and celebrate, since taxpayers helped bail it out to the tune of $180 billion.)

So why shouldn’t the rest of us DIG into our pockets to show that we give a FIG about the stock market’s own comeback? Who would refuse a GIG to dance a JIG on the grave of the bear market?

Fortunately, it doesn’t take a MIG to shoot down this idea. Bob Prechter did it in his best-selling book, Conquer the Crash, when he explained that it’s best not to act like a PIG at a trough that will soon be empty — particularly since the U.S. economy is heading for a deflationary depression. It’s better to RIG up some kind of safety net in advance, rather than to WIG out about market ZIG-zags.

Here are three reasons Conquer the Crash gives not to speculate in the stock market now, even though it has been rising since the July low.  

* * * * *

Excerpted from Chapter 20 of Conquer the Crash, You Can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression by Robert R. Prechter, Jr.

Should You Speculate in Stocks?

Perhaps the number one precaution to take at the start of a deflationary crash is to make sure that your investment capital is not invested “long” in stocks, stock mutual funds, stock index futures, stock options or any other equity-based investment or speculation. That advice alone should be worth the time you spent to read this book.

1. Stocks May Go to Near Zero

In 2000 and 2001, countless Internet stocks fell from $50 or $100 a share to near zero in a matter of months. In 2001, Enron went from $85 to pennies a share in less than a year. These are the early casualties of debt, leverage and incautious speculation. Countless investors, including the managers of insurance companies, pension funds and mutual funds, express great confidence that their “diverse holdings” will keep major portfolio risk at bay. Aside from piles of questionable debt, what are those diverse holdings? Stocks, stocks and more stocks. Despite current optimism that the bull market is back, there will be many more casualties to come when stock prices turn back down
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Phil's Favorites

What the US could learn from Thailand about health care coverage

 

What the US could learn from Thailand about health care coverage

A computer screen promoting this year’s open enrollment, which will run 45 days. In years past, open enrollment continued for months. Ricky Kresslein/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Joseph Harris, Boston University

The open enrollment period for the Affordable Care Act (ACA) draws to a close on Dec. 15. Yet, recent assaults on the ACA by the Trump administration stand in marked contrast to efforts to expand access to health care and medicine in the rest of the world. In fact, ...



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Zero Hedge

California Troubled Utility Proposed $2 Billion Rate Hike To Fund "Wildfire Safety"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

One month after the stock and bonds of troubled California Utility Pacific Gas & Electric cratered after the company hinted of a liquidity crisis as a result of mounting legal obligations following California's destructive Camp Fire, shocking and infuriating its investors...

...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Dow Theory Concerns? Transportation Stocks Make New Lows

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The bull market is experiencing its first real test since the 2014/2015 stock market correction. Volatility is high and key sectors are heading lower.

One such sector is the Transportation Sector(NYSEARCA: IYT) and select stocks.

The age-old Dow Theory call for the Industrials and Transports to lead the market (and confirm each others moves). Currently, both are struggling. But the Dow Transports are on the precipice of a major breakdown. Looking at the chart below, you can see that the Transportation Sector ETF (IYT) is attempting to break down below its 12-month trading range and 9-year rising support line.

If the market doesn’t reverse higher soon, this break down will send a negative message to investors about the economy… and the broader stock market.

A move lower wou...



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Digital Currencies

Crypto Bull Tom Lee: Bitcoin's 'Fair Value' Closer To $15,000, But He's Sick Of People Asking About It

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Listening to the crypto bulls of yesteryear continue to defend their case for new new all-time highs, despite a growing mountain of evidence to suggest that last year's rally was spurred by the blind greed of gullible marginal buyers (not to mention outright manipulation), one can't help but feel a twinge of pity for Mike Novogratz and Wall Street's original crypto uber-bull, Fundstrat's Tom Lee.

Lee achieved rock star status thanks to ...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga.

  • Data on retail sales for November will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • Data on industrial production for November will be released at 9:15 a.m. ET.
  • The flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index for December is schedule for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • Data on business inventories for October will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the recent week is schedule for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.

Posted-In: Economic DataNews Economics ...



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Biotech

Those designer babies everyone is freaking out about - it's not likely to happen

Reminder: We're available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Those designer babies everyone is freaking out about – it's not likely to happen

Babies to order. Andrew crotty/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy A Cecile JW Janssens, Emory University

When Adam Nash was still an embryo, living in a dish in the lab, scientists tested his DNA to make sure it was free of ...



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Members' Corner

Blue Wave with Cheri Jacobus (Q&A II, Updated)

By Ilene at Phil's Stock World

Cheri Jacobus is a widely known political consultant, pundit, writer and outspoken former Republican and frequent guest on CNN, MSNBC, FOX News, CBS.com, CNBC and C-Span. Cheri shares her thoughts on the political landscape with us in a follow up to our August interview.

Updated 12-10-18

Ilene: What do you think about Michael Cohen's claim that the Trump Organization's discussions with high-level Russian officials about a deal for Trump Tower Moscow continued into June 2016?

...

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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Dec 09, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

Bears are certainly showing the type of strength we haven’t seen in a long time.   A week ago at this time futures were surging on news of a “truce” for 90 days between China and the U.S. in their trade spat.  But the charts were still not saying lovely things despite a major rally the week prior.   And by Tuesday, darkness had descended back on the indexes, with another gut punch Friday.    A lot of emphasis was put on a long term Treasury yield dropping below a shorter term Treasury.

On Monday, the yield on five year government debt slid below the yield on three year debt, a phenomenon which has p...



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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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ValueWalk

Vilas Fund Up 55% In Q3; 3Q18 Letter: A Bull Market In Bearish Forecasts

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The Vilas Fund, LP letter for the third quarter ended September 30, 2018; titled, “A Bull Market in Bearish Forecasts.”

Ever since the financial crisis, there has been a huge fascination with predictions of the next “big crash” right around the next corner. Whether it is Greece, Italy, Chinese debt, the “overvalued” stock market, the Shiller Ratio, Puerto Rico, underfunded pensions in Illinois and New Jersey, the Fed (both for QE a few years ago and now for removing QE), rising interest rates, Federal budget deficits, peaking profit margins, etc...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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