Posts Tagged ‘COP’

Big Bear Put Spread Initiated On ConocoPhillips


Today’s tickers: COP, HD & HCA

COP - ConocoPhillips Company – Options on ConocoPhillips are among the most active by volume on Wednesday, with shares in the name down 0.90% on the session to stand at $61.12 as of 12:05 p.m. ET, just hours ahead of the global energy company’s fourth-quarter earnings report after the closing bell. The largest transaction in COP options this morning was the purchase of an Aug. $47.5/$57.5 put spread, established at a net premium outlay of $1.80 per contract. Time and sales data shows blocks of 48,700 puts trading as part of a spread today, with overall volume at each strike topping 50,000 contracts. The bearish position makes money, or provides downside protection, if shares in COP drop 9.0% from the current price of $61.12 to trade below the effective breakeven point at $55.70. Maximum potential profits of $8.20 per contract are available on the spread should ConocoPhillips’ shares slump 22% to settle at a new 52-week low of $47.50 at August expiration. Shares in COP last traded below $47.50 back in February 2010.

HD - Home Depot, Inc. – Bullish options activity on the home improvement retailer this morning looks for shares in Home Depot to improve during the next couple of months. The stock today trades up 0.10% to stand at $67.27 as of 10:45 a.m. ET, after the shares earlier this week rallied to a new 52-week high of $68.15. The heaviest trading traffic in HD options is at the Mar. $65 strike, where upwards of 3,300 in-the-money calls changed hands versus open interest of 1,104 contracts. It looks like most of the call options were purchased by one trader for an average premium of $3.05 apiece during the first 10 minutes of the trading day. The strategist may profit at expiration in March should shares in Home Depot rally X% over the current price of $67.27 to top the average breakeven point at $68.05. The company is scheduled to report fourth-quarter earnings ahead of the opening bell on February 26th.…
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Testy Tuesday – 7.5% or Bust!

Wheee, this is fun!

Will our 7.5% lines hold?  As I mentioned yesterday, we expected a test of our 7.5% lines at  Dow 10,950, S&P 1,160, Nasdaq 2,400, NYSE 7,450 and Russell 690 and we remain TECHNICALLY bullish if we hold them.  The Dollar was doing well until about 3am this morning but then turned down sharply – some sort of rumor is driving the market and, of course, heading into the G20 pretty much any comment made by any Central Banking official is blown way out of proportion.  

China is likely to raise rates today, making a small concession to the US on their exchange rates but more so to cool off the massive property bubble that is forming in their cities.  That may put some downward pressure on commodities without strengthening the dollar – an interesting combo, but one that illustrates how China is becoming more important in the Global marketplace than the US.  

If China is raising their lending rate to 5.56% and their deposit rate to 2.5%, they risk attracting even more money, including a reverse carry-trade from the US, when money can be borrowed from the Fed at 0.25% and lent to China for 2.5% giving the trader a 2.25% profit for the year.  2.25% may not sound that sexy, but when it’s done by Investment Banks and other investors who can lever their money 10:1, that’s a 22.5% on their cash.  This is how Japan has supported their economy for two decades but it’s hard to imagine what will happen if the US Dollar, which makes up 62% of all money on the planet, starts flowing out of the country in even faster quantities.  

pboc1019We were just discussing investing in foreign countries in Member chat and I warned that this may not be the best time to make that kind of move as the dollar is very possibly bottoming here and transferring US Dollars to another currency risks hitting a reversal that wipes out any interest gains and possibly even some the principal as the Dollar rebounds and you find yourself in the wrong currency at the wrong time.  

I guess I should talk about AAPL although we’ve already discussed it in depth in Member Chat but they do seem to have had some kind of earnings and, although very nice – expectations were already a bit high so they…
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Contrarian Player Plants Bull Call Spread on Seed Maker Monsanto Co.

 Today’s tickers: MON, EWZ, XLB, HPQ, V, BCSI & SLB

MON - Monsanto Co. – Shares of the maker of genetically modified seeds seemed to be recovering at the start of the current session following Tuesday’s horrendous performance wherein the stock fell as much as 9.80% from an intraday high of $52.64 to a low of $47.50. MON’s shares managed to rebound 4.50% off Tuesday’s low of $47.50 to briefly touch an intraday high of $49.62, although the rally proved to be short-lived and shares are down 1.00% at $48.25 as of 3:15 pm ET. Though MON was unable to keep hold of earlier gains, one contrarian player is optimistic that Monsanto’s shares will reverse course and head back up by November expiration. The investor purchased a call spread, buying 5,000 calls at the November $55 strike at a premium of $0.85 each, and selling the same number of calls at the higher November $60 strike for a premium of $0.27 apiece. Net premium paid to establish the transaction amounts to $0.58 per contract. Thus, the investor is ready to make money should Monsanto’s shares surge 15.20% over the current price of $48.25 to surpass the effective breakeven point on the spread at $55.58 by November expiration. Maximum potential profits of $4.42 per contract are available to the bullish player if MON’s shares jump 24.35% to trade above $60.00 by expiration day.

EWZ - iShares MSCI Brazil Index ETF – Investors are placing near-term bearish bets on the Brazil fund this afternoon by selling calls to finance the purchase of put spreads in the October contract. The large pessimistic plays could be the work of traders hedging long positions or the mark of outright bearish bettors expecting the price of the underlying fund to slip lower ahead of expiration next month. Shares of the EWZ, an exchange-traded fund designed to replicate the price and yield performance of publicly traded securities in the aggregate in the Brazilian market – as measured by the MSCI Brazil Index, rallied…
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CVS’s Sympathy Rally Inspires Bullish Options Activity

 Today’s tickers: CVS, DRIV, AVP, WAG, ADBE, PHM & COP

CVS - CVS Caremark Corp. – The better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings report from Walgreen Co. this morning helped CVS’s shares higher during the trading session. Shares rallied as much as 3.365% to rein in an intraday high of $31.64. The increase in the price of the underlying stock inspired one options player to extend bullish sentiment on the stock by initiating a calendar roll. It looks like the investor purchased 10,000 calls at the November $30 strike at a premium of $1.11 each back on September 17, 2010, when shares were trading around $29.72 each. The surge in shares since the purchase bumped up premium on those now in-the-money calls, which the investor sold today for a premium of $2.09 apiece. Net profits on the sale amount to $0.98 per contract. Next the investor renewed optimism on CVS by purchasing a fresh batch of 10,000 calls at the higher January 2011 $32 strike at a premium of $1.64 a-pop. Profits on the new position are available to the trader if CVS’s shares jump 6.3% to surpass the effective breakeven price of $33.64 by expiration day in January.

DRIV - Digital River, Inc. – It looks like an investor expecting Digital River’s shares to remain range-bound through November expiration sold a strangle in the second half of the trading session. Shares of the provider of a variety of marketing solutions and services increased more than 5.50% this afternoon to touch an intraday high of $33.34. The strangle-strategist appears to have sold 2,500 calls at the November $35 strike for a premium of $1.35 each, and sold the same number of puts at the lower November $28 strike at a premium of $0.525 apiece. Gross premium pocketed on the transaction amounts to $1.875 per contract. The trader keeps the full amount of premium received on the strangle play if DRIV’s shares trade within the boundaries of the strike prices described through expiration day. The short positions in both call…
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Option Player Cops a Strangle on ConocoPhillips

Today’s tickers: COP, POT, BAC, HPQ, AMZN, SLV, SPWRA, XEC, WFMI & C

COP – ConocoPhillips – A short strangle employed in the May contract on ConocoPhillips this afternoon suggests one investor expects shares of the underlying stock to remain range-bound through expiration. COP’s shares are down 1.25% to $49.29 with approximately thirty minutes remaining in the trading session. The trader ‘copped’ a strangle play by selling 3,000 puts at the May $46 strike for a premium of $1.77 apiece in combination with the sale of 3,000 calls at the May $52.5 strike for an average premium of $1.13 each. The investor responsible for the transaction pockets a gross premium of $2.90 per contract, and keeps the full amount of premium if ConocoPhillips’ shares trade within the confines of the strike prices described through expiration in May. The short position undertaken in both calls and puts leaves the trader vulnerable to potentially devastating losses should COP-shares swing dramatically in the next few months. Losses accumulate for the investor if shares rally above the upper breakeven price of $55.40, or if the price of the stock plummets through the lower breakeven point at $43.10, ahead of expiration day.

POT – Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. – Fertilizer and feed products manufacturer, Potash Corp., attracted bullish options traders this afternoon. POT-shares are up 0.75% today to $114.01 just ahead of the closing bell, which contributes to the more than 14.50% rally in the price of the underlying stock since February 5, 2010, when shares stood at $99.36. Optimistic trading patterns appeared in the March contract where one investor established a ratio call spread. The transaction involved the purchase of roughly 4,500 calls at the March $125 strike for a premium of $1.77 apiece, marked against the sale of about 9,000 calls at the higher March $135 strike for an average premium of $0.52 each. The net cost of the ratio spread amounts to $0.73 per contract. Maximum potential profits of $9.27 per contract pad the investor’s wallet if Potash’s shares rally sharply by 18.50% over the current day’s price to reach $135.00 by March expiration. Shares must increase at least 10.25% before the investor breaks even on the spread at a share price of $125.73.

BAC – Bank of America Corp. – B of A investors have enjoyed an 8.75% rebound in the financial firm’s share price to $15.66 today, up from…
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Optimistic Trader Initiates Call Spread on ConocoPhillips

Today’s tickers: COP, EEM, DE, SIRI, JPM, FCX, T, PCS, MSFT & EK

COP – ConocoPhillips– Oil and gas company, ConocoPhillips, attracted an optimistic options player to the January 2011 contract today. Shares began the trading day on the up-and-up, but reversed direction in the latter portion of the session, falling slightly by 0.20% to $48.26. The long-term bullish strategist purchased a debit call spread to position for upside gains in the underlying share price by expiration next January. The spread involved the purchase of 5,000 calls at the January 2011 $50 strike for an average premium of $3.91 apiece, marked against the sale of the same number of calls at the higher January 2011 $65 strike for about $0.60 each. The net cost of the transaction amounts to $3.31 per contract. The investor responsible for the trade stands ready to accrue maximum potential profits of $11.69 per contract if COP’s shares gain 35% over the current price to reach $65.00 by expiration day. Shares must rise at least 10.5% from today’s price before the call-spreader breaks even on the transaction at $53.31.

EEM – iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF – Shares of the MSCI Emerging Markets exchange-traded fund fell less than 1% in afternoon trading to stand at $38.47. September contract options trading suggests one investor is positioning for continued downward movement in the price of the underlying stock by expiration. The pessimistic trader established a bearish risk reversal on the fund by selling 5,300 out-of-the-money call options at the September $45 strike for a premium of $1.35 apiece, spread against the purchase of the same number of put options at the September $33 strike for $1.77 each. The investor paid a net $0.42 per contract for the transaction. Profits to the downside accumulate only if shares of the EEM slump another 15.3% from the current price to breach the breakeven point at $32.58 by expiration in the next eight months. We note that the fund’s share price has remained above the $33.00-level since July 15, 2009.

DE – Deere & Co. – Shares of agricultural equipment maker, Deere & Co., are trading 1.80% higher to stand at $52.03 in the first half of the trading day. Notable options activity appeared in the January 2011 contract where one investor initiated a long-term protective play using put options. The trader established a put spread by purchasing 10,000 puts at…
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American Express bulls play calendar spread

Today’s tickers: AXP, JNPR, GE, XLF, JPM, WFC, DNA, COP & XOM

AXP – American Express Company – Shares of the global payments and travel company have rallied by 7% to $11.83, an upward move which is likely due to the news that AXP’s fourth quarter earnings were favorably revised yesterday because of an accounting error. Adjustments boosted earnings per share to 21 cents from the previously recorded 15 cents for the quarter, and net income for the year amounted to $2.7 billion up from $2.63 billion originally. Option traders welcomed the unexpected news and established bullish positions on AXP today. One indication of bullishness was the rash of put selling in the March contract. March 10 and 12.5 strikes were heavily sold. Juxtaposed with the near-term bullishness observed is one far-term optimist on AXP, who sees shares doubling by January 2011. In the January 2010 contract at the 20 strike price 10,000 calls were sold for 95 cents each. Using the 20 strike price in January 2011, 10,000 calls were purchased for 1.95 apiece. For this calendar spread to come good, shares would need to nearly double from the current level. We have to think that this spread is already or will be coupled with underlying stock with the risk that the investor is left deficient of shares in the event of a break through $20.00 ahead of expiration.

JNPR – Juniper Networks Inc. – Shares have remained relatively flat today, having fallen just 0.15% to $13.46. The assured and secure Internet Protocol networking solutions company caught our attention due to its high call-to-put ratio which is currently favoring calls 11 times to every single put in play. But, the majority of the calls traded today were sold, indicated an overall bearish picture of the stock. At the March 13 strike price, 3,300 in-the-money calls were sold for 88 cents apiece – perhaps profit taking by investors exiting existing positions at that strike. At the March 14 strike 3,500 calls were shed for 42 cents apiece. The same trend was observed in the April contract where the April 12 strike price had 4,000 calls sold for 1.96, the 13 strike price saw the sale of over 5,100 calls for a premium of 1.28, and the 14 strike had more than 3,600 calls sold for 80 cents per contract. Implied volatility has come off since yesterday reading of 60% to…
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Phil's Favorites

Will #deletefacebook become a thing?


Will #deletefacebook become a thing?

Courtesy of 

It’s always hard to tell whether or not people will follow through with these sorts of memes…

This is the cover of the new Bloomberg Business magazine:

And here is the accompanying story from Paul Ford.

This tweet is getting a lo...

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Zero Hedge

What Happens Next In The Global Trade War: A Q&A With Goldman Sachs

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Today, according to Politico, the White House will unveil its plan to hit China with tariffs and other trade restrictions, one day ahead of schedule as President Trump is slated to outline the results of U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer's investigation into allegations that China violates U.S. intellectual property rights by forcing American companies to transfer valuable technology to Beijing.

Lighthizer’s office has determined that the US loses at least $30BN a year to China’s alleged forced technology transfers, and the administration is weighing a package of tariffs equivalent to that amount of Chinese imports; according to Reuters it could be as high ...

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Insider Scoop

20 Stocks Moving In Wednesday's Pre-Market Session

Courtesy of Benzinga.


  • Proteostasis Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: PTI) shares rose 12.4 percent to $5.80 in pre-market trading after the company reported withdrawal of equity offering due to market conditions.
  • China Auto Logistics Inc. (NASDAQ: CALI) shares rose 10.8 percent to $4.40 in pre-market trading after surging 15.41 percent on Tuesday.
  • Fennec Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: FENC) rose 8.9 percent to $10.38 in pre-market trading a... more from Insider

Digital Currencies

Why accountants of the future will need to speak blockchain and cryptocurrency if they want your money


Why accountants of the future will need to speak blockchain and cryptocurrency if they want your money


Courtesy of Anwar Halari, The Open University

If you haven’t already heard of Bitcoin, you either haven’t been paying attention or you’re a time traveller who just touched down in 2018. Because by now, most of us will have heard of Bitcoin and some of us have even jumped on the bandwagon, investing in cryptocurrencies.

But despite its popularity, many people still don’t understand the technology that underlines it: blockchain. In...

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Chart School

Bears Take Control

Courtesy of Declan.

More decisive action from bears today as markets lose support.  The S&P undercut the rising trendline and 20-day plus 50-day MAs in a move which looks like it could develop into a test of the February spike low and the 200-day MA again; support at 2,695 is looking critical here. Aggressive traders could look to buy at these levels but confidence in this holding would not be high.

The Dow also saw its 'bear flag' / consolidation triangle resolve to the downside. The two positives were the relatively light volume and the ...

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Peter Thiel: Need To Rethink Tariffs In Light Of Trade Deficit With China; SF Sucks, Bitcoin Rocks

By VW Staff. Originally published at ValueWalk.

PayPal cofounder Peter Thiel in a wide-ranging interview on President Trump’s trade tariffs, China’s economy, technology regulations and his outlook for bitcoin.


Check out our H2 hedge fund letters here.

Peter Thiel: Need To Rethink Tariffs In Light Of Trade Deficit With China

Peter Thiel On Leaving Silicon Valley For Los Angeles

Billionaire investor Peter Thiel argues Silicon Valley is is a ‘totalitarian place’ where people are not allowed to have dissenting views.


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Members' Corner

Cambridge Analytica and the 2016 Election: What you need to know (updated)


"If you want to fundamentally reshape society, you first have to break it." ~ Christopher Wylie

[Interview: Cambridge Analytica whistleblower: 'We spent $1m harvesting millions of Facebook profiles' – video]

"You’ve probably heard by now that Cambridge Analytica, which is backed by the borderline-psychotic Mercer family and was formerly chaired by Steve Bannon, had a decisive role in manipulating voters on a one-by-one basis – using their own personal data to push them toward voting ...

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How your brain is wired to just say 'yes' to opioids

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


How your brain is wired to just say ‘yes’ to opioids

A Philadelphia man, who struggles with opioid addiction, in 2017. AP Photo/Matt Rourke

Courtesy of Paul R. Sanberg, University of South Florida and Samantha Portis, University of South Florida


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Mapping The Market

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

Via Jean-Luc

How propagandist beat science – they did it for the tobacco industry and now it's in favor of the energy companies:

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

The original tobacco strategy involved several lines of attack. One of these was to fund research that supported the industry and then publish only the results that fit the required narrative. “For instance, in 1954 the TIRC distributed a pamphlet entitled ‘A Scientific Perspective on the Cigarette Controversy’ to nearly 200,000 doctors, journalists, and policy-makers, in which they emphasized favorable research and questioned results supporting the contrary view,” say Weatherall and co, who call this approach biased production.

A second approach promoted independent research that happened to support ...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!


We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.


EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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