Posts Tagged ‘corporate buybacks’

Will We Hold It Wednesday – Strong Bounce Edition

What an amazing recovery!  

Just one week ago the World was coming to and end and now everyone has their rally caps back on.  Investors really are sheep – except I think sheep have better memories…  We're still right on plan of dropping 10% and then bouncing 4% (strong bounces) by Wednesday (today) that was initiated on October 6th by our friends at the Fed (see yesterday's post for the summary).  For those of you keeping score, our strong bounce predictions for today were:

  • Dow 16,466 (weak) and 16,632 (strong).
  • S&P 1,878 (weak) and 1,903 (strong).
  • Nasdaq 4,280 (weak) and 4,360 (strong).
  • NYSE 10,360 (weak) and 10,540 (strong).  
  • Russell 1,104 (weak) and 1,128 (strong).

INDU WEEKLYThe Dow is just 17 points away from our goal and we'll just need the NYSE and the Russell to confirm their bounce lines and THEN we can get bullish again.  Meanwhile, we actually got a bit more bearish in our Short-Term Portfolio (also in yesterday's post) as our Long-Term Portfolio popped right back to up 18.1% for the year so we wanted to lock those gains in with the STP, which finished the day up 81.8%, down from 92% in the morning as the markets rocketed.  

If the rally is real, the Dow should have no problem at all popping our 16,632 line – after all, it jumped 234 points yesterday but stopped dead right at our strong bounce line.  The…
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Will We Hold It Wednesday – Global Correction Edition

You call this a correction?

The Nasdaq is down 4%, Russell is down 5%, the Hang Seng is down 6% and the FTSE is down 3.6% but barely a pause from the rest of our Global Indexes.  The problem is, it's been so long since we had a proper pullback that people think a tiny little correction is the end of the World.  Even in the good old days, before high-frequency trading made a joke out of the market – investors didn't get too upset about a 5% pullback

That may be the problem as well.  The reason the market has marched off to record highs is BECAUSE investors have been led to believe that it's better than bonds, better than cash, even – to have your money in the stock market.  We certainly seem to have convinced a lot of Boards of Directors that the best thing to do with their company's money is to buy back their own stock or the stock of their competitors – no matter how ridiculous the price.  

$533Bn of hard-earned Corporate Profits were spent buying just the S&P 500, by the S&P 500, in the past 12 months alone.  That's 20% more than all of 2013 ($420Bn) and 30% over the 5-year average and that DOESN'T include M&A activity – also at a record pace.   While this has been going on, insiders have been SELLING their company stock at a record pace – Interesting…

So the company uses it's profits, not to invest in it's own future but to prop up it's own stock price – making earnings seem better because you are dividing the profits by a lower number of shares than there were last year.  This inflates the stock price and the insiders get out and that's when you buy – is that about right?  

What a friggin' scam - I can't believe you fell for that!  Seriously, that is such an obvious fraud that you would think people would run screaming away from equities.  The problem is, there's nowhere to run to, is there.  Your cash is being devalued, bonds don't keep up with inflation, real estate is still very…
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INSIDERS AREN’T THE ONLY ONES BOYCOTTING THEIR OWN SHARES

INSIDERS AREN’T THE ONLY ONES BOYCOTTING THEIR OWN SHARES

boycotting stock sharesCourtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Insiders aren’t the only ones who aren’t buying their own shares.  According to S&P U.S. corporations have reduced buybacks of their own shares to levels that haven’t been seen since 1998.  Bloomberg reports:

U.S. companies spent the least on share buybacks in the second quarter since at least 1998, S&P said, as the recession crimped earnings.Standard & Poor’s 500 Index companies paid $24.2 billion to repurchase shares, a 72 percent decline from the $87.9 billion they spent a year earlier and 86 percent less than the record $172 billion in the third quarter of 2007. That’s the least since S&P began tracking the trend in 1998, the New York-based research and credit rating firm said. In the second quarter, 169 companies bought back stock, compared with 288 a year earlier.

The worst recession in seven decades convinced companies to stop buying back shares even after valuations fell to their lowest level in two decades, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Executives use repurchases to lower the amount of outstanding shares and increase stockholders’ stake in profits.

“Weak economies, poor growth prospects, the credit crunch, all of those factors that pushed stock prices down were also impacting revenue, and cash on hand, and all the things needed to repurchase shares,” said James Gaul, a money manager at Boston Advisors LLC in Boston, which oversees $1.5 billion. “In a situation where you’re really strapped for day-to-day expenses, you’re not going to be buying back stock.”

The collapse of the subprime mortgage market spurred $1.6 trillion in bank losses and writedowns worldwide, dragged the U.S., Europe and Japan into the first simultaneous recession since World War II and froze credit markets.

Buybacks Drop

The decline in share buybacks came after the S&P 500 fell to its lowest price relative to profits in 24 years in March. The index traded at an average price-earnings ratio of 14.2 in the second quarter, compared with 16.9 a year earlier and 16.6 in the third quarter of 2007.

Companies in the S&P 500 hoarded cash in the second quarter to weather a record eighth consecutive decrease in quarterly profit. They held a combined $1.06 trillion in cash in the period, 21 percent more than a year earlier and 29 percent more than the in the third quarter of 2007,


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INSIDERS AREN’T THE ONLY ONES BOYCOTTING THEIR OWN SHARES

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INSIDERS AREN’T THE ONLY ONES BOYCOTTING THEIR OWN SHARES

boycotting stock sharesCourtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Insiders aren’t the only ones who aren’t buying their own shares.  According to S&P U.S. corporations have reduced buybacks of their own shares to levels that haven’t been seen since 1998.  Bloomberg reports:

U.S. companies spent the least on share buybacks in the second quarter since at least 1998, S&P said, as the recession crimped earnings.Standard & Poor’s 500 Index companies paid $24.2 billion to repurchase shares, a 72 percent decline from the $87.9 billion they spent a year earlier and 86 percent less than the record $172 billion in the third quarter of 2007. That’s the least since S&P began tracking the trend in 1998, the New York-based research and credit rating firm said. In the second quarter, 169 companies bought back stock, compared with 288 a year earlier.

The worst recession in seven decades convinced companies to stop buying back shares even after valuations fell to their lowest level in two decades, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Executives use repurchases to lower the amount of outstanding shares and increase stockholders’ stake in profits.

“Weak economies, poor growth prospects, the credit crunch, all of those factors that pushed stock prices down were also impacting revenue, and cash on hand, and all the things needed to repurchase shares,” said James Gaul, a money manager at Boston Advisors LLC in Boston, which oversees $1.5 billion. “In a situation where you’re really strapped for day-to-day expenses, you’re not going to be buying back stock.”

The collapse of the subprime mortgage market spurred $1.6 trillion in bank losses and writedowns worldwide, dragged the U.S., Europe and Japan into the first simultaneous recession since World War II and froze credit markets.

Buybacks Drop

The decline in share buybacks came after the S&P 500 fell to its lowest price relative to profits in 24 years in March. The index traded at an average price-earnings ratio of 14.2 in the second quarter, compared with 16.9 a year earlier and 16.6 in the third quarter of 2007.

Companies in the S&P 500 hoarded cash in the second quarter to weather a record eighth consecutive decrease in quarterly profit. They held a combined $1.06 trillion in cash in the period, 21 percent more than a year


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Zero Hedge

The Fed And The Treasury Have Now Merged

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Submitted by Jim Bianco of Bianco Research

As I've argued, the Fed and the Treasury merged. Powell said this was the case today (from his Q&A):

These programs we are using, under the laws, we do these, as I mentioned in my remarks, with the consent of the Treasury Secretary and the fiscal backing from the congress through the Treasury. And we are doing it to provide credit to households, businesses, state and local governments. As we are directed by the Congress. We are using that fiscal backstop to absorb any losses we have.

Our ability is limited by the law. We have to find u...



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Phil's Favorites

The PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Webinar - 04-08-2020

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here.

 

Major Topics:

00:01:34 - Checking on the Markets
00:04:32 - Current News
00:31:34 - LEVI
00:35:08 - AMZN
00:39:26 - Mark Mahaney's Stock Coverage
00:43:00 - Public Transportation & Disinfecting
00:48:08 - Petroleum Status Report & OPEC
01:00:24 - COVID-19 Update | WYNN
01:16:00 - Portfolio Projection: Income Portfolio
01:17:23 - FUTURES
01:18:49 - Earnings Portfolio
01:19:27 - STP | LTP
01:22:52 - S&P 500
01:30:05 - AAPL
01:34:15 - VIX
01:36:00 - M
01:42:56 - VIAC
01:47:02 - XOM
01:50:29 - LB
01:52:44 - IRBT
01:57:48 - Crude Oil WTI
02...



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Biotech/COVID-19

COVID-19 is hitting black and poor communities the hardest, underscoring fault lines in access and care for those on margins

 

COVID-19 is hitting black and poor communities the hardest, underscoring fault lines in access and care for those on margins

Nurse Shelia Rickman participates in an after-shift demonstration on Monday, April 6, 2020, in Chicago’s Hyde Park neighborhood, after media reports of disproportionate numbers of black people dying from COVID-19 in the city. AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast

Grace A. Noppert, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

As the COVID-19 epidemic continues to ravage the American public, an unsurprisin...



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ValueWalk

Coronavirus symptoms, causes, prevention and cure

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The best case situation for Coronavirus or COVID-19 is that in a few weeks it dies down and things get back to normal. However, we must entertain the possibility of a far more frightening scenario.

COVID-19 models continue to change for the better

April 9, 2020 Update: More than 1.5 million people around the world have been infected by the novel coronavirus, and nearly 90,000 have died. In the U.S., the death toll surpassed 14,000 on Wednesday. Tuesday alone saw a record 1,858 deaths. So far, approximately 425,000 people in the U.S. have tested positive for COVID-19.

Although researchers say the peak hasn’t been reached yet, the model in use by the White House and many other agencies was updated on Wednesday. The number of projected deaths from the virus in the U.S. declined to 60,415 by August, compared...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver/Gold Indicator Creates Largest Bullish Pattern In Decades!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is an important metals indicator sending one of the largest bullish messages in nearly 50-years? Very Possible!

This chart looks at the Silver/Gold ratio on a monthly basis since the mid-1970s. Historically metals bulls want to see the ratio heading up, to send the metals complex a solid bullish message.

The ratio hit the top of the falling channel (A) back in 2011, where it created a large bearish reversal pattern. Since creating the bearish pattern at resistance, the ratio has experienced a significant decline.

9 years after hitting the top of the channel the ratio hit the bottom of the channel at (1) last month, where it looks to have created one of the largest monthly b...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Suggests Much Lower Prices Yet To Come - Part I

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system suggests a much deeper price move is in the works and the current price rally will likely end near resistance levels identified by the Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system.  We are posting this research post for friends and followers to help them understand the true structure of price and to allow them to prepare for what we believe will become a much deeper downside price move in the future.

Fibonacci Price Theory teaches us that price moves in waves within up and down price cycles. The recent peak in price, near February 25, 2020, has resulted in a very deep -36% price collapse in the S&P 500 (ES) recently. This dow...



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Chart School

The Big Short movie guides us to what is next for the stock market

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

There is nothing new in WallStreet, it is only the players that change. Sometimes a market player or an event gets ahead of the crowd and WallStreet has to play catch up.

Previous Post Dow 2020 Crash Watch Dow, Three strikes and your out!

It is important to understand major WallStreet players do not want to miss out on a money making moves.  







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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
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Members' Corner

10 ways to spot online misinformation

 

10 ways to spot online misinformation

When you share information online, do it responsibly. Sitthiphong/Getty Images

Courtesy of H. Colleen Sinclair, Mississippi State University

Propagandists are already working to sow disinformation and social discord in the run-up to the November elections.

Many of their efforts have focused on social media, where people’s limited attention spans push them to ...



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Digital Currencies

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

 

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

Get used to it. Anastasiia Bakai

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

Anyone holding bitcoin would have watched the market with alarm in recent weeks. The virtual currency, whose price other cryptocurrencies like ethereum and litecoin largely follow, plummeted from more than US$10,000 (£8,206) in mid-February to briefly below US$4,000 on March 13. Despite recovering to the mid-US$6,000s at the time of writin...



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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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