Posts Tagged ‘credit card writeoffs’

Improvement In Case-Shiller Housing Index – Will It Last?

Improvement In Case-Shiller Housing Index – Will It Last?

housing, "don't make us beg"Courtesy of Mish

Over the past couple months, I have had many people tell me "the housing bottom is in". Supposedly the stock market bottom is in as well, and in just a couple years the S&P will be back at 1500. Really?

Stock market bulls have no idea how weak earnings will be as consumers continue to retrench and unemployment climbs. As noted previously a "Buy The Dip" Mentality Is Fully Entrenched among fund managers and individual investors in spite of the fact Insiders Dump Shares at Fastest Pace in 2 Years.

Moreover, housing bulls ignore shadow inventory, seasonal factors, and temporary effects of the soon to expire $8,000 first-time home buyers credit.

Shadow Housing Inventory Will Halt A Housing Recovery

iStockAnalyst is reporting Shadow Housing Inventory Will Halt A Housing Recovery.

Any optimist talking up a housing recovery might want to pause and look deeper into the housing crisis. Amherst Securities Group analysts believe the market faces about 7 million properties that are likely to be seized by lenders have yet to hit the open market. There are two sources that contribute to a huge shadow housing inventory; ARM mortgages which are due to reset now through 2012 and current home owners who are struggling to make payments.

Assuming no other properties are on the market, it would take 1.35 years to sell this inventory based on the current pace of existing-home sales, analyst Laurie Goodman.

The favorable seasonality will be over come the October housing numbers and the reality of a 7-million-unit housing shadow inventory is likely to set in.

The uptick in the housing numbers are due to banks slowing down the filing of forecloses due to the government loan modification program, the spring/summer seasonality strength of the housing market, buyers rushing to take advantage of the soon to expire $8,000 first-time home buyers credit and the record low mortgage rates thanks to the Federal reserve buying treasuries to help keep mortgage interest rates artificially low but that program is due to be over during the 1st quarter of 2010.

When the shadow inventory is unleashed and government is out of stimulus gun powder for the housing market, reality that the housing correction is not over will set back in.

In Breakfast with Dave, Rosenberg


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Phil's Favorites

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Feb. 26, 1pm EST

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Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

...

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Zero Hedge

Futures Spike After Germany Yanks "Debt Break": Berlin To "Temporarily Suspend" Limit On Public Borrowing

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

The Germans may have opposed closing borders in response to the outbreak in Italy, but it appears Berlin is planning to do something about the outbreak.

According to reports, the Germans are stepping up to suspend Berlin's longstanding constitutional "debt break" and deliver the fiscal stimulus for which economists have been begging.

To try and prevent a full-blown recession ...



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Biotech & Health

World economy flashes red over coronavirus - with strange echoes of 1880s Yellow Peril hysteria

 

World economy flashes red over coronavirus – with strange echoes of 1880s Yellow Peril hysteria

Courtesy of John Weeks, SOAS, University of London

As the novel coronavirus pandemic continues to unfold, travel restrictions are being imposed around the world. China is the main target, with various countries including Australia, Canada and the US placing different restrictions on people who have travelled through the country ...



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Insider Scoop

Benzinga Pro's Top 5 Stocks To Watch For Wed., Feb. 26, 2020: DIS, SPCE, BYND, SDC, JCP

Courtesy of Benzinga

Benzinga Pro's Stocks To Watch For Wednesday

  • Disney (DIS) - The company announced Bob Iger will step down as CEO, to be replaced by Bob Chapek. Iger will assume the role of Executive Chair through 2021. Disney shares were down about 2% on the news. 
  • Virgin Galactic (SPCE) - Shares were down 4% following Q4 results. The company reported a nearly $73 million loss on sales of under $530K. The stock is probably one of the most popular stocks on Wall Street right now: about 15 million shares trade per day on average; on Tuesday, ahead of the earnings report, about 41 million shares traded. Virgin Galactic was about a $6 billion market-cap company ...


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Kimble Charting Solutions

Dow Industrials Reversal Lower Could Be Double Whammy for Stock Bulls!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Dow Jones Industrial Average “monthly” Chart

The Dow Industrials have spent the past 70 years in a wide rising price channel marked by each (1). And the past 25 years have seen prices test and pull back from the upper end of that channel.

The current bull market cycle has seen stocks rise sharply off the 2009 lows toward the upper end of that channel once more.

In fact, the Dow has been hovering near the topside of that price channel for several months.

But just as the Dow is kissing the top of this channel, it might be creating back-to-back “monthly” bearish ...



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The Technical Traders

Yield Curve Patterns - What To Expect In 2020

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Quite a bit of information can be gleaned from the US Treasury Yield Curve charts.  There are two very interesting components that we identified from the Yield Curve charts below.  First, the bottom in late 2018 was a very important price bottom in the US markets.  That low presented a very deep bottom in the Yield Curve 30Y-10Y chart.  We believe this bottom set up a very dynamic shift in the capital markets that present the current risk factor throughout must of the rest of the world.  Second, this same December 2018 price bottom set up a very unique consolidation pattern on the 10Y-3Y Yield Curve chart.  This pattern has been seen before, in late 1997-1998 and late 2005-2008.

...

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Chart School

Oil cycle leads the stock cycle

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Sure correlation is not causation, but this chart should be known by you.

We all know the world economy was waiting for a pin to prick the 'everything bubble', but no one had any idea of what the pin would look like.

Hence this is why the story of the black swan is so relevant.






There is massive debt behind the record high stock markets, there so much debt the political will required to allow central banks to print trillions to cover losses will likely effect elections. The point is printing money to cover billions is unlikely to upset anyone, however printing trillions will. In 2007 it was billions, in 202X it ...

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Members' Corner

Threats to democracy: oligarchy, feudalism, dictatorship

 

Threats to democracy: oligarchy, feudalism, dictatorship

Courtesy of David Brin, Contrary Brin Blog 

Fascinating and important to consider, since it is probably one of the reasons why the world aristocracy is pulling its all-out putsch right now… “Trillions will be inherited over the coming decades, further widening the wealth gap,” reports the Los Angeles Times. The beneficiaries aren’t all that young themselves. From 1989 to 2016, U.S. households inherited more than $8.5 trillion. Over that time, the average age of recipients rose by a decade to 51. More ...



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Digital Currencies

Altcoin season 2.0: why bitcoin has been outgunned by crypto rivals since new year

 

Altcoin season 2.0: why bitcoin has been outgunned by crypto rivals since new year

‘We have you surrounded!’ Wit Olszewski

Courtesy of Gavin Brown, Manchester Metropolitan University and Richard Whittle, Manchester Metropolitan University

When bitcoin was trading at the dizzying heights of almost US$2...



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ValueWalk

What US companies are saying about coronavirus impact

By Aman Jain. Originally published at ValueWalk.

With the coronavirus outbreak coinciding with the U.S. earnings seasons, it is only normal to expect companies to talk about this deadly virus in their earnings conference calls. In fact, many major U.S. companies not only talked about coronavirus, but also warned about its potential impact on their financial numbers.

Q4 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Coronavirus impact: many US companies unclear

According to ...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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