Posts Tagged ‘CRI’

Harley-Davidson Calls Pop as Bulls Position to Ride Rally Higher

Today’s tickers: HOG, V, CRI & ANR

HOG - Harley-Davidson, Inc. – Shares in Harley-Davidson roared to life during the month of June, rising some 20.0% since June 13. Bullish players expecting the price of the underlying to continue to accelerate to the upside scooped up call options this morning. HOG’s shares are currently up 1.75% on the day to stand at $41.69 as of 11:35 am ET. Call options in the front month are the most heavily trafficked, with the July $43 strike call attracting the greatest volume. Investors exchanged more than 4,100 calls at the July $43 strike against previously existing open interest of just 33 contracts. It looks like traders purchased most of the calls at that strike for an average premium of $0.36 a-pop. Call buyers profit if shares in the motorcycle manufacturer climb another 4.0% over the current price of $41.69 to surpass the average breakeven point at $43.36 by July expiration. Harley-Davidson’s shares traded within pennies of the breakeven price back in April when the stock rallied to a 2-year high of $43.15. The July contract calls expire four days before HOG reports second-quarter earnings. In-the-money calls set to expire in August received some attention, as well. It looks like some 2,100 calls may have been purchased for an average premium of $2.74 each at the August $40 strike. The calls changing hands at this strike could be closing positions as open interest at this strike is sufficient to cover volume generated thus far in the session. The rise in demand for HOG calls helped lift options implied volatility on the stock 7.4% to 32.23% by 11:50 am in New York.

V - Visa, Inc. – The run-up in Visa’s shares sparked by the Fed’s decision to impose a $0.22 cap on swipe fees rather…
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Testy Tuesday Morning

Wow – what a lot of work to get back to last Tuesday's high! 

As usual, the vast majority of gains came in pre-market trading and the rest came in light-volume, early morning trading while the rest of the day was dominated by every buyer finding a willing seller for 75% of the day's volume.  We saw what happened on Thursday when someone big wants to sell and there are no buyers so we'll see how long the bull's luck (manufactured or otherwise) will hold out as we begin to get economic data along with some early earnings reports.

The Ag sector popped 2% yesterday ahead of tonight's earings from MOS with MON checking in tomorrow morning so we'll see how wise those last-minute bets were in short order.  SONC also has earnings tonight and we like those guys long-term.  SONC makes a decent buy/write candidate as you can buy the stock for $10.29 and sell June $10 puts and calls for $2.25 for a net entry of $8.04 with a very nice 24% profit if called away at $10 and an average entry of $9.02 (a 12% discount) if more stock is put to you below $10 in June. 

FDO and WOR also report tomorrow morning.  FDO will be interesting but a weak dollar probably hurt them last quarter.  Tomorrow night we hear from BBBY, BLUD, OHB and Sonic competitor RT, who seem a bit pricey at $7.50.  Thursday we get our first real builder, LEN along with STZ and TXI.  After the bell on Thursday we hear from APOL, CRI and SCHN with GBX and PSMT on Friday.  AA officially kicks of earnings season next Monday with GAP, INFY, KBH, BGG, SCHW, SHFL, INTC and JPM highlighting the reporters. 

We have plenty of data this week including Factory Orders and Pending Home Sales at 10 am along with December Auto Sales throughout the day (did you get a new car for Christmas?).  Tomorrow is jobs day, with the ADP Report and Challenger Job Cuts ahead of the bell followed by ISM Services (yesterday's ISM was a nice beat) and, of course, Crude Inventories at 10:30 which are unlikely to sustain $82 oil (USO Jan $40 puts for .80 are a good way to play this)We talked about the other stuff yesterday so I won't repeat it – suffice to say
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Gold Mminers ETF Attracts Bullish Option Plays

Today’s tickers: GDX, CF, S, XHB, PCLN, XLF, CX, CAR, BZH, CRI & ERTS

GDX – Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF – Shares of the gold ETF that invests in shares of precious metals mining companies are up 0.5% to $49.53 with one hour remaining in the trading session. Option implied volatility has come down from 54% to 46% recently as gold’s price has surged. Nearer-term investors sought downside protection on the fund, whereas long-term traders initiated bullish plays. Investors hoping to lock in gains experienced during the recent run-up in the price of gold purchased 4,000 puts at the January 2010 47 strike for 3.05 apiece. Further along, at the March 2010 44 strike, another 6,000 puts were picked up for an average premium of 3.10 per contract. Finally, long-term bullishness took the form of a call spread in the January 2011 contract. It appears one investor purchased about 5,000 calls at the January 50 strike for an average of 9.52 each, marked against the sale of the same number of calls at the higher January 55 strike for 7.55 each. The net cost of the optimistic play amounts to 1.97 per contract. The trader stands to accrue maximum potential profits of 3.03 each if shares of GDX rally 11% over the current price to $55.00 by expiration in January 2011.

CF – CF Industries Holdings, Inc. – Bearish option plays appeared on the manufacturer of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer products today after the firm rejected rival Agrium Inc.’s increased takeover offer of $4.52 billion. Shares of CF are currently trading 4% lower to $77.20. Investors purchased put options at the now in-the-money December 80 strike for an average premium of 6.70 apiece. Perhaps put-buyers are protecting long stock positions. Otherwise, they are hoping to accrue profits if shares of CF decline through the effective breakeven price of $73.30. Another trader unraveled a previously established bullish play in the January 2010 contract. The investor originally placed an extremely bullish 8,500-lot call spread at the January 90/100 strikes. However, the trader abandoned bullish sentiment today by closing out the spread. Option implied volatility on CF jumped 7.5% over Monday’s closing value of 52.9% to reach an intraday high of 55.9%.

S – Sprint Nextel Corp. – Shares of the wireless communications company surrendered a portion of gains experienced during yesterday’s 20% rally to an intraday high of $3.43. The stock…
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Carter’s Earnings Cancel Sends Implied Options Volatility Skywards

Today’s tickers: CRI, RDC, XL, VIX, XHB, XRX, EFA, WYNN, BIDU & XHB

CRI – Carter’s Inc. – The more than 20,500 option contracts exchanged thus far today on the children’s apparel company trumps existing open interest of just 3,342 lots by a factor of 6. Shares of Carter’s are suffering significant erosion after the firm announced plans to delay its third-quarter earnings release, originally scheduled for this evening, perhaps until November 12, 2009. News of the postponement sent shares tumbling 25.5% lower to $21.16. Investor uncertainty jumped through the roof as evidenced by the massive 66% rise in option implied volatility this morning to an intraday high of 90%. Bullish investors took advantage of today’s declines by trading near-term call options. One trader put on a ratio call spread by purchasing 1,000 calls at the in-the-money November 20 strike for 2.30 apiece, and by selling 2,000 calls at the higher November 25 strike for 55 pennies each. The net cost of buying the calls is reduced to 1.20 per contract. The effective breakeven price of $21.20 on the transaction allows the investor to profit by expiration in November if shares of CRI rise at least 4 cents. Maximum potential profits of 3.80 per contract are available if the stock recovers up to $25.00. Losses would begin to accumulate if any rally lifted the share price above $28.80.

RDC – Rowan Companies, Inc. – Option traders scooped up put options on the provider of contract drilling services while shares slumped 2.75% to $24.90. The January 2010 22.5 strike had at least 1,400 puts purchased for an average premium of 1.16 apiece. The now in-the-money January 25 strike attracted traders who picked up 1,300 puts for about 2.15 each. Bearish sentiment spread to the April contract where another 2,000 puts were coveted at the April 22.5 strike for 2.02 a-pop. Finally, the most action took place at the in-the-money April 25 strike where 9,800 puts were purchased for an average of 3.18 each. Perhaps put-buying investors are aiming to protect the value of long positions in the underlying. Otherwise, traders placing bearish bets on RDC hope to accumulate profits on further share price weakness over the next several months.

XL – XL Capital Ltd. – Bullish investors took aim at XL Capital put options in the January contract this afternoon. Shares of XL are slightly higher by less than 0.25% to…
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ValueWalk

Larry Kudlow Weighs In On The November Jobs Report

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

First on CNBC: CNBC Transcript: National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow Speaks with CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” today on the November jobs report.

Q3 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

White House Economic Advisor Larry Kudlow Weighs In On The November Jobs Report

CARL QUINTANILLA: The director of the National Economic Council will talk about the November jobs’ number this morning. Larry, good morning. Happy Friday, good to have you back.

LARRY KUDLOW: Thank you. Hello folks, how are...



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Phil's Favorites

OCC Says JPMorgan Chase Has $29.1 Trillion of Custody Assets; That's $8 Trillion More than the Assets of All Banks in the U.S.

Courtesy of Pam Martens

Jamie Dimon, Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase

On November 24 the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) fined JPMorgan Chase $250 million for wrongdoing that was apparently too deplorable to be spoken out loud to the public. The specific details were cloaked in this phrase: “failure to maintain adequate internal controls and internal audit over its fiduciary business.”

We went to the OCC’s Consent Order connected to the fine to see if there were the ty...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Is The US Dollar About To Reach A Melting Point?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

It’s been 20 years since the last major peak in the US Dollar. Could the greenback’s latest turn lower confirm another peak?

Today’s chart takes a macro view of the US Dollar Index and highlights the long-term down-trend at each point (1). As you can see, the buck is on a topsy turvy ride, bouncing up and down within this down-trend.

The latest bottom formed after the financial crisis and has seen the US Dollar trade within a 9 year up-trend channel marked by each (2). This gave bulls some confidence that the US Dollar may have formed a long-term bottomȂ...



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Politics

Ignoring Warnings His Election Lies Could Get People Killed, Trump Posts 46-Minute Rant Full of 'Unhinged' Falsehoods

 

Ignoring Warnings His Election Lies Could Get People Killed, Trump Posts 46-Minute Rant Full of 'Unhinged' Falsehoods

"Georgia elections director yesterday: Trump's rhetoric is going to get people killed. Trump today: here's 46 minutes of unhinged conspiracy theories."

Courtesy of Jake Johnson, Common Dreams

Activists march through the city of Detroit on November 7, 2020 to denounce President Donald Trump's false claims of voter fraud. (Photo: Adam J. Dewey/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

Just days...



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Zero Hedge

Stocks Plunge After Pfizer Cuts Vaccine Rollout Target By Half Due To "Supply Chain Obstacles"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

US stocks tumbled during the final hour of trading Thursday as Pfizer revealed that it expects to ship half the number of vaccines this year, raising new questions about the optimistic projections and expectations for the pace of vaccinations.

The company cited supply chain delays tied to the fact that the company has found raw materials in early production that did not meet its standards.

It still expects over 1bln doses rolled out in 2021

"Scaling up the raw material supply chain took longer than expected," a company spokeswoman said. "And it's important to highlight that the outcom...



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Chart School

Gold Chart Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Gold swing trade is due, lets review some charts to see if it is a viable move.

The seasonal period of gold is now upon us, gold should advance for the next 3 months.

Gold Gann Angle Chart ...



Gold Channel Chart .. close up!



 

Gold Channel Chart
 


Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination of Gann Ang...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Rapid COVID-19 tests can be useful - but there are far too few to put a dent in the pandemic

 

Rapid COVID-19 tests can be useful – but there are far too few to put a dent in the pandemic

Rapid tests for COVID-19 are easy to administer and give fast results. AP Photo/Julio Cortez, File

Courtesy of Bonnie LaFleur, University of Arizona and Katherine Ellingson, University of Ari...



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Digital Currencies

Five Reasons Why Bitcoin is Going Up

 

Five Reasons Why Bitcoin is Going Up

Courtesy of 

Call it the “Respectability Rally”…

A few reasons for Bitcoin’s return to the record highs. It’s about $18,500 as of this writing, matching the previous highs from 2017’s original explosion.

Reason one: It’s going up because it’s going up. Don’t scoff, this is the reason most things in the markets happen and then the explanations are called for afterwards. I’m in financial television, I have literally watched this process occur in real-time. The more something moves in a given direction, the more peop...



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Mapping The Market

COVID-19 Forces More Than Half of Asset Management Firms to Accelerate Adoption of Digital Marketing Technology

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

There is no doubt that the use of technology to support client engagement initiatives brings both opportunities and threats but this has been brought into sharp focus this year with the COVID-19 pandemic.

The crisis has brought to the fore the need for firms to enable flexibility in client engagement – the expectation that providers will communicate to clients on their terms, at their speed and frequency and on their preferred channels, is now a given. This is even more critical when clients are experiencing unparalleled anxiety from both market conditions and their own personal circumstances.

...

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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

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Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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