Posts Tagged ‘CROX’

Monday Market Movement – Do We Ever Go Down?

breadth

We all go down for a piece of the moment
Watch another burn to the death to the core
And the roadshow thrills pack the freaks and the phonies
Sing: now is now, yeah! – Rob Zombie 

There is just no way to win betting against this market!  

Well, actually, there is one way and that's betting that each pop is nonsense and tends to have a subsequent pullback intra-day but, long-term, the cumulative effect of all that low-volume pumping has been a rousing success, to say the least.  

As you can see from Andy Thrasher's S&P chart, there has been some amazing underlying deterioration since the July 4th weekend with the Advance/Decline line falling back to trend and stocks above their 200-Day Moving Average dropping 15% in 3 weeks.  Stocks above the 200 DMA is a fantastic leading indicator for downside move – ignore it at your own risk. 

TNXPeople are panicking into bonds, dropping the 10-Year Yield 20%, from 3.1% to 2.45% this year but it doesn't matter because Central Banksters are pumping SO MUCH MONEY into the Global Markets that there's enough to buy all asset classes simultaneously – something that is unprecedented in Financial History – what could go wrong?

Well, one thing that could go wrong is you putting your money into Mutual Funds.  As it turns out, in an S&P study of actively managed Mutual Funds, only 2 (two) out of 2,862 actually beat the S&P over ANY of the fund's lifetimes (limited to 12 months or longer).  

That's even worse than the average performace of hedge funds, which only averaged a 0.59% annual loss when compared to just putting your money directly into the S&P.

 This dovetails with a conversation we were having this weekend in our Member Chat Room, where I identified 4 trade ideas for a $50,000 Portfolio that only used 1/4 of the buying power to generate $365,512 in projected profits over the next 15 years using CONSERVATIVE options strategies designed to MATCH the S&P, not beat it.…
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Too High Tuesday? 10 Bullish Trade Ideas that Made Over 1,200%

SPY 5 MINUTEThis is ridiculous.

As noted on Dave Fry's chart, the S&P made a new record high with narrow participation and essentially all of the gains were one big move in the Futures to reprice the index.  I said yesterday we have been getting 50% of the day's volumes in the close and yesterday was no different and that closing volume is all dumping into the ETF, IRA and 401K suckers that are forced to buy.  

We took a couple of big bats against the Dow's move up yesterday, adding a DIA put at $166.80 (see yesterday's Member Chat for details) as well as going long on DXD at $26.20 – both with leveraged options plays, of course.  

SPX WEEKLY

We still have plenty of bullish trades to protect but, when we bein to cash out our winners and start buying short plays on the index – you can tell the winds are changing.  Our 500% trade on DDM from Thanksgiving was scheduled to top out in April anyway – and we sold in May to go away.  

That trade was one of our "10 Trade Ideas That Can Make (and some have already made) 500% in a Rising Market" and I had just as much trouble convincing people to go long in November as I'm having convincing people it's time to cash out in May.  

Not all the trades are done, but a quick summary of those positions is:

  • ABX 2015 $13/18 bull call spread at $2.80, selling 2015 $15 puts for $2.05 for net .75, now $2.35 – up 213%
  • 8 QQQ Jan 2014 $75/80 bull call spreads for $3 ($2,400), selling 1 ISRG 2015 $300 put for $23.50 ($2,350) for net $50, now net $2,600 - up 5,100%


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Thrilling Thursday – Our Apple Trade of the Year Pays Off Early!

Go Apple!!! 

AAPL was our 2014 trade of the year, so we are thrilled with their Q1 earnings and expecting to see $600 on this run (I sent an Alert to our Members early this morning and you can see it on Twitter as well) detailing our strategy as well as discussing PSW's Rule #1 and it's practical implications.  In our first Webcast of the year, we picked AAPL as our top trade idea and again, on TV on March 6th, I was almost embarrassed to say AAPL was once again our trade of the year for BNN (it was last year's trade too).  

NDX WEEKLYThe fact was, there simply wasn't a more obvious way to make money tnan buying AAPL at just over $500.  When AAPL dipped to $480 in February, we PRESSED our long bets from January, rather than abandon them.  As I was saying, our 2013 trade of the year was also AAPL and I hate to seem like I don't have any other ideas but that options spread netted 550%, turning $2,800 into $15,400 in 2013 (the spread matured this year at 614% but we killed it early).  

Rolling that $15,400 into this year's trade has another 525% of upside potential (at AAPL $650), which would return $80,850 if AAPL is at $650 or better in Jan 2016.  So, starting with $2,400 in Jan 2013, we can parlay our bet to $78,450 in profits (3,268%) in just 36 months – not bad!

This stuff isn't hard folks, that was starting with just two contracts in 2013 and following our trade of the year.  In 2012, our trade of the year was BAC – which turned out to be the best-performing stock in the S&P that year.  In fact, on Jan 5th of 2012, I laid out my case for putting 100% of your portfolio into BAC and simply leaving it there for the year.  I was even crazy enough to go on TV on the 17th and say the same thing!   Lucky it worked out, really…

Of course, we don't only make picks once a year.  Just yesterday morning, in Member chat, Wobat said: "Did i miss the debrief on AAPL?
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Upside Calls Active On UPS As Stock Hits Fresh Highs

UPS – United Parcel Service Inc. – Trading in weekly call options on the package delivery company indicates some traders are positioning for shares in UPS to continue higher this week, with shares in the name up 3.2% on Monday at a new all time high of $98.65. The company reported third-quarter earnings ahead of the opening bell on Friday.

Traders prepared to benefit from continued gains in the price of the underlying shares in the near term purchased calls on UPS this morning, buying around 775 of the Nov 01 ’13 $97 strike calls for an average premium of $0.60 each, and picking up around 675 of the Nov 01 ’13 $98 strike calls for an average premium of $0.50 apiece. Call buyers stand ready to profit at expiration this week in the event that shares in UPS settle above the breakeven points at $97.60 and $98.50, respectively. 

CROX – Crocs, Inc. – Shares in footwear and apparel maker Crocs fell more than 6.0% during morning trading to $12.95, the lowest level since September 10th, after the stock was cut to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Overweight’ with a target share price of $15.00 from $18.00 at Piper Jaffray.

Trading in the March expiry put options suggests one or more traders are bracing for the price of the underlying to extend losses during the next five months. Upwards of 2,000 of the Mar ’14 $13 strike puts have changed hands so far in the session against open interest of 413 contracts, and it looks like most of the volume was purchased at a premium of $1.40 each. Put buyers stand ready to profit at expiration if shares in CROX decline 10% from the current price of $12.95 to breach the breakeven


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Bull Call Spread On LVS Looks For Q3 Earnings To Impress

 

Today’s tickers: LVS, CROX & F

LVS - Las Vegas Sands Corp. – Casino stocks are popping today in sympathy with Wynn Resorts Ltd. after that company posted better-than-expected third-quarter earnings, announced plans to double its regular quarterly dividend and declared a $7.50 a-share special cash dividend. Las Vegas Sands Corp., which is scheduled to release third-quarter results tomorrow, rallied as much as 4.5% on Thursday morning to hit $46.30 in the early going. One options player appears to be positioning for further near-term upside with the purchase of a bull call spread in the newly issued weekly options that expire one week from tomorrow. It looks like the trader purchased a 400-lot Nov. 02 ’12 $47.5/$50 call spread for a net premium of $0.54 per contract. The strategy makes money if shares in LVS increase 5% from the current level of $45.70 to top the effective breakeven point at $48.04, with maximum potential profits of $1.96 per contract available on the position should shares surge 9.4% to hit $50.00 by expiration next week.

CROX - Crocs, Inc. – Shares in plastic-clog maker, Crocs, Inc., are getting slammed today after the company’s fourth-quarter top and bottom line estimates came in lower than analysts expected. The stock is down more than 20% at $12.89 as of 12:05 p.m. in New York. Crocs reported better-than-expected third-quarter profits after the final bell on Wednesday, but missed expectations for revenue in the quarter. Front month put activity on CROX this morning suggests one or more traders are holding out hope for a mild recovery in the shares in the near term. The sale of around 1,800 puts at the Nov. $13 strike provides an average premium of $0.32 per contract to sellers, who keep the full amount of premium as long as shares in the shoe maker exceed $13.00 at expiration next month. The puts were sold within the first couple of minutes of the opening bell this morning…
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Traders Feast On CROX, YUM Call Options

 

Today’s tickers: CROX, YUM & LOW

CROX - Crocs, Inc. – The tail may be wagging the dog at casual footwear maker, Crocs, Inc., today with heavy trading traffic in August expiry calls preceding a sharp upside move in the price of the underlying early in the trading session. The stock fell 1.9% at the open and continued to trade in negative territory until a burst of call activity at approximately 9:40 a.m. saw the stock bounce off its lows and gain as much as 6.3% to $15.03. Upwards of 3,500 option contracts have changed hands on CROX thus far in the session, with more than nine calls trading for each put option in play. In- and out-of-the-money calls expiring in August are seeing the most action, with some 1,900 in-the-money contracts purchased for an average premium of $1.00 each at the $14 strike. Another 2,000 contracts traded to the middle of the market at the Aug. $15 strike at an average premium of $0.58 apiece, while 825 calls were picked up at the $16 strike for a premium of $0.30 per contract. The trader or traders responsible for the activity may be positioning for shares to rise following the company’s second-quarter earnings report next Wednesday after the final bell.

YUM - YUM! Brands, Inc. – The operator of fast food restaurant chains KFC, Pizza Hut and Taco Bell, reports second-quarter earnings after the final bell this afternoon. Call spreads initiated on YUM this morning suggests one trader is prepared to profit should shares in the name post single-digit gains ahead of July expiration later in the week. China growth concerns, the crisis in Europe and flagging U.S. consumer confidence have weighed on YUM shares in recent months, with the stock currently down 13% off the April 20th all-time high of $74.44. The stock today, however, is in positive territory with shares in the name up 1.1% at $65.13 just before midday in New York.…
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DISH Call Options Active After AT&T / T-Mobile Merger Falls Through

             Today’s tickers: DISH, CROX, USB & BPOP

DISH - DISH Network Corp. – Investors were busy buying call options on the provider of direct broadcast satellite subscription television service straight out of the gate this morning on speculation the company may have what AT&T needs after the potential deal with Deutsche Telekom’s T-Mobile USA unit fell through. Shares in DISH Network rallied sharply on news of the failed merger as analysts directed attention to the Englewood, Colorado-based Company’s spectrum, an attractive asset to AT&T, which needs to bulk up on wireless airwaves. DISH’s shares increased as much as 9.4% to $27.50 in the first half of the session, spurring some strategists to snap up call options in the front month. It looks like investors prepping for shares in DISH Network to extend gains in the near term purchased around 1,250 in-the-money calls at the Jan. 2012 $27 strike for an average premium of $1.50 each. Call buyers stand ready to profit at expiration next month in the event that shares in DISH rally another 3.6% to exceed the effective breakeven price of $28.50. Bullish activity spread to the Jan. 2012 $29 strike where some 230 calls were purchased at a premium of $0.65 per contract. DISH Network’s shares must soar 7.8% to top $29.65 in order for higher-strike call buyers to profit at expiration day in January.

CROX - Crocs, Inc. – Options traders slipped their feet into Crocs call options this morning, with shares in the rubber clog maker climbing as much as 6.7% to $15.53 today. Heavy call volume in the front month suggests some strategists are gearing up for substantial near-term gains in the price of the underlying stock. The company yesterday announced it obtained a five-year $70 million secured revolving line of credit to replace its existing $30 million asset backed line of credit. The CFO of the company said in a release that the new credit agreement provides “additional financial flexibility to invest in our strategic initiatives.” Bullish investors that purchased more than…
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Crocs, Inc. Options Active As Shares Tank

Today’s tickers: CROX, SHLD, TLM & DPZ

CROX - Crocs, Inc. – Lower-than-expected third- and fourth-quarter sales guidance from the maker of plastic clogs trounced shares in Crocs, Inc. today, roughly two weeks before the company’s official third-quarter earnings release on November 3. Shares in CROX plunged 39.15% to as low as $16.21 this morning. Options on Crocs are changing hands at a fairly rapid clip, with trading in calls outpacing that in puts by more than 3-to-1. Trading in CROX calls appears somewhat mixed. It looks like some strategists are buying call options to get ahead of any potential rebound in the price of the underlying should selling pressure ease up ahead of October expiration. The most active option is the Oct. $18 strike call, where more than 3,200 contracts changed hands by 11:25 am EDT against zero open positions. Investors paid or received an average premium of $0.43 per contract depending on whether they were buying- or selling-to-open the position. Buyers of the contracts profit at expiration in the event that shares in CROX rally 11.0% over the current price of $16.60 to surpass the average breakeven point at $18.43. Meanwhile, sellers of the calls walk away with the full $0.43 credit received as long as the shoemaker’s shares fail to rally above $18.00 at expiration.

The sharp drop in the price of the underlying may be just what some bearish strategists were hoping to see. Open interest indicates there are 770 existing positions open in the Nov. $27 strike put. Examining changes in the open interest level at that strike suggests 500 of the puts were likely purchased by one trader at a premium of $2.20 each this past Friday. Shares in Crocs ended the previous week at $26.97. The subsequent nosedive in the price of the underlying now sees the price tag on those puts 380.0% higher at $10.60 as of 11:30 am in New York. Premium on the put options may continue to climb if shares in CROX extend losses through November expiration. Options implied volatility on the stock jumped 28.4% to 87.9% in the first half of the session.

SHLD - Sears Holdings Corp. – A sizable bearish put spread on Sears Holdings Corp. may signal caution by at least one investor ahead of the specialty retailer’s third-quarter earnings report in less than one month. Shares in Sears rallied 3.4% to $75.00 by 12:30 pm in New York,…
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CEO Pick for J.C. Penney Sends Options Traders Into Overdrive

Today’s tickers: JCP, CROX, CSCO & KR

JCP - J.C. Penney Co., Inc. – Frenzied options trading ensued following reports that Ron Johnson, head of retail at Apple Inc., was named CEO of J.C. Penney Co. The news drove shares in the department store operator up 19.5% to $35.97by 1:40 pm in New York. The number of options in play on JCP today is approaching 171,000 contracts in afternoon trade, topping overall open interest on the stock of 160,338 contracts.Johnson’s appointment to JCP seems to have injected traders with a renewed sense of optimism on the department store owner. The previous four weeks were not kind to shares in J.C. Penney, which declined 27.3% since mid-May to $29.82 this past Friday.

Investors are exchanging roughly 1.6 call options on JCP for each single put option in action. June and July contract calls are the most active with in- and out-of-the-money call buying a seemingly popular strategy amongst traders. Investors who picked up calls a few hours ago at the start of the rally paid far less than the current asking price on the options in most cases. June $30 strike calls, for example, were purchased around 1,100 times earlier in the session for an average premium of $1.79 each. The now deep in-the-money calls currently tout a hefty price tag of $5.90 per contract. Trading traffic in options expiring this Friday ballooned during the session. Call volume at the June $32strike, the most at any single strike in the front month, is greater than 12,500 contracts against previously existing open positions of 3,818 contracts. Early-birds paid an average premium of around $0.46 per contract for those calls, which now have an asking price of $3.90 a-pop. July contract calls drew crowds, as well. The July $35 and $36 strike…
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Monday Market Movement – More Monetary Madness

Get ready for a crazy week!

We have data this week, we have the Fed and we have elections and yes, we have a worthless currency that’s worth less and less every day.  This morning, China’s PMI hit 54.7 for October, up from September’s 53.8 and indicating that China’s decision to raise rates had no impact on growth.   India found this thrilling and went up 1.4% (as of midnight) but the Nikkei flatlined because China’s gains are Japan’s losses at the moment as the Dollar failed to maintain an early pop to just 81.2 and fell back more than half a point in Asian trading.  

The yen’s moves have been "excessive" recently, a Japanese government official said Monday, but he declined to comment on whether Tokyo authorities intervened in the foreign exchange market earlier in the day to knock the currency lower. Exporters remained under selling pressure, with Canon off 0.6% and Toyota Motor down 1.1%. Honda Motor lost 3.4% despite reporting solid second-quarter earnings as the automaker cut its fiscal second-half net profit outlook.  Sony shares fell 2.2% as news that the electronics giant had returned a net profit in the July-September was offset by concerns over pressure on earnings at its television division.

"The soft U.S. dollar suggests that the market is still gearing up for a sizeable QE this week," said Greg Gibbs, currency strategist at RBS in Sydney. In Seoul, the market was modestly higher but investors were cautious ahead of the Fed meeting this week. Net selling by foreigners also tempered demand. "Some investors appear concerned that the Fed’s meeting this week may not take enough quantitative easing measures to satisfy market demands," said Lee Kyoung-min at Woori Investment & Securities in Seoul.

QE2, QE2 and more QE2 – this is the basis for the global rally.  How much QE2 will be enough to satisfy a global market that is now counting on AT LEAST $1Tn to be handed out by the Fed in 2011?  It’s not just QE2, of course, the Fed continues to hand out money to Wall Street on an almost daily basis through their Permanent Open Market Operations or "POMO" and that trade has become as reliable as our "3am Trade" on the Yen as we at PSW have now begun to follow the POMO schedule (as Goldman Sachs has been advising their own clients) to give…
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Zero Hedge

Over 80% Of Dutch Support Restrictions On Muslim Women's Clothing

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

In August a Danish law came into force banning face-covering veils, and as Statista's Niall McCarthy notes, the move to ban burqas or niqabs has proven highly controversial and divisive.

There were protests when the law came into force and the Scandinavian country experienced an extensive debate on whether it was discriminatory ...



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Phil's Favorites

Animal Spirits: Borrowing From the Future

 

Animal Spirits: Borrowing From the Future

Courtesy of 

On this week’s Animal Spirits, we discuss:

$250 trillion in debt

Dalio could lose 1% a day for a year and still be worth $400 million

...



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ValueWalk

Tilson Says TLRY Is Like Cryptos, 3D Printing, A Bubble About To Burst

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Whitney Tilson’s additional comments on the hottest new stock TLRY. Excerpted from an email to colleagues.

A quick follow-up to my email this morning:

1) After seeing my comments on Tilray (TLRY) in my email earlier today, Yahoo Finance invited me on their afternoon streaming video show, The Final Round, where I:

  • Heaped scorn on this obvious bubble stock, saying it’s overvalued by at least 10x, maybe even 100x
  • Compared it to cryptocurrency, 3D printing, and alternative power ...


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Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver & Gold- Best buy point in 25-Years?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

This chart looks at the Silver/Gold Ratio over the past 30-years.  Historically when the ratio is heading higher it sends a message to be long and strong Gold & Silver.

When the ratio is heading lower, historically it’s been a great time to avoid Gold & Silver. The ratio has been heading lower since the highs back in 2011, suggesting it’s not the time to buy and hold Silver & Gold.

The decline in the ratio over the past 7-years has it currently testing the 1995 lows as well as a potential support line at (2).

Best time to buy Silver & Gold in the past 25-years? T...



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Digital Currencies

Mania to Mania

 

Mania to Mania

Courtesy of 

“Russell rarely played the stock market and had little investing experience when he put around $120,000 into bitcoin in November 2017.”

This comes from a CNN money article, Bitcoin crash: This man lost his savings when cryptocurrencies plunged. From January 2017 through the peak in early 2018, Ethereum gained 16,915%.

Any time you have something go vertical, you just know that some peopl...



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Insider Scoop

A Peek Into The Markets: US Stock Futures Flat Ahead Of Housing Starts, Current Account Data

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Pre-open movers

U.S. stock futures traded mostly flat in early pre-market trade. Data on housing starts for August and the current account report for the second quarter will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1 point to 26,273.00, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures traded declined 2 points to 2,909.75. Futures for the Nasdaq 100 index slipped 1.5 point to 7,523.

Oil prices traded ...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Sep 16, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

Slow and steady drip up all this past week in a very quiet news environment.  A gap down top open the day Tuesday (which was recovered quickly) and a gap up Thursday (which held) were the highlights!

The latest on TRADE WARS!(tm):

Tuesday, news hit that China vowed to retaliate and plans to ask the World Trade Organization next week for permission to impose sanctions on the U.S. for Washington’s noncompliance with a ruling in a dispute over U.S. dumping duties, Reuters reported. That’s part of a dispute that goes back to 2013.

“Trade wars are certainly a concern, but I don’t know that they’re a one...



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Members' Corner

Nike, Colin Kaepernick and the pitfalls of 'woke' corporate branding

 

Adding this article to Members Corner, in case anyone wants to share their opinions on Nike and Kaep, or on divisiveness in general. Also see the article I mentioned in the comments section, "A Warning From Europe: The Worst Is Yet to Come" and What’s behind the current wave of ‘corporate activism’? ~ Ilene

Nike, Colin Kaepernick and the pitfalls of 'woke' corporate branding

Courtesy of Simon Chadwick, University of Salford...



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Biotech

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Breast cancer type 1 (BRCA1) is a human tumor suppressor gene, found in all humans. Its protein, also called by the synonym BRCA1, is responsible for repairing DNA. ibreakstock/Shutterstock.com

By Jay Shendure, University of Washington; Greg Findlay, ...



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Mapping The Market

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

Via Jean-Luc:

Famed investor reflecting on his mistakes:

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

One that stands out for me:

Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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