Posts Tagged ‘CROX’

Monday Market Movement – Do We Ever Go Down?

breadth

We all go down for a piece of the moment
Watch another burn to the death to the core
And the roadshow thrills pack the freaks and the phonies
Sing: now is now, yeah! – Rob Zombie 

There is just no way to win betting against this market!  

Well, actually, there is one way and that's betting that each pop is nonsense and tends to have a subsequent pullback intra-day but, long-term, the cumulative effect of all that low-volume pumping has been a rousing success, to say the least.  

As you can see from Andy Thrasher's S&P chart, there has been some amazing underlying deterioration since the July 4th weekend with the Advance/Decline line falling back to trend and stocks above their 200-Day Moving Average dropping 15% in 3 weeks.  Stocks above the 200 DMA is a fantastic leading indicator for downside move – ignore it at your own risk. 

TNXPeople are panicking into bonds, dropping the 10-Year Yield 20%, from 3.1% to 2.45% this year but it doesn't matter because Central Banksters are pumping SO MUCH MONEY into the Global Markets that there's enough to buy all asset classes simultaneously – something that is unprecedented in Financial History – what could go wrong?

Well, one thing that could go wrong is you putting your money into Mutual Funds.  As it turns out, in an S&P study of actively managed Mutual Funds, only 2 (two) out of 2,862 actually beat the S&P over ANY of the fund's lifetimes (limited to 12 months or longer).  

That's even worse than the average performace of hedge funds, which only averaged a 0.59% annual loss when compared to just putting your money directly into the S&P.

 This dovetails with a conversation we were having this weekend in our Member Chat Room, where I identified 4 trade ideas for a $50,000 Portfolio that only used 1/4 of the buying power to generate $365,512 in projected profits over the next 15 years using CONSERVATIVE options strategies designed to MATCH the S&P, not beat it.…
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Too High Tuesday? 10 Bullish Trade Ideas that Made Over 1,200%

SPY 5 MINUTEThis is ridiculous.

As noted on Dave Fry's chart, the S&P made a new record high with narrow participation and essentially all of the gains were one big move in the Futures to reprice the index.  I said yesterday we have been getting 50% of the day's volumes in the close and yesterday was no different and that closing volume is all dumping into the ETF, IRA and 401K suckers that are forced to buy.  

We took a couple of big bats against the Dow's move up yesterday, adding a DIA put at $166.80 (see yesterday's Member Chat for details) as well as going long on DXD at $26.20 – both with leveraged options plays, of course.  

SPX WEEKLY

We still have plenty of bullish trades to protect but, when we bein to cash out our winners and start buying short plays on the index – you can tell the winds are changing.  Our 500% trade on DDM from Thanksgiving was scheduled to top out in April anyway – and we sold in May to go away.  

That trade was one of our "10 Trade Ideas That Can Make (and some have already made) 500% in a Rising Market" and I had just as much trouble convincing people to go long in November as I'm having convincing people it's time to cash out in May.  

Not all the trades are done, but a quick summary of those positions is:

  • ABX 2015 $13/18 bull call spread at $2.80, selling 2015 $15 puts for $2.05 for net .75, now $2.35 – up 213%
  • 8 QQQ Jan 2014 $75/80 bull call spreads for $3 ($2,400), selling 1 ISRG 2015 $300 put for $23.50 ($2,350) for net $50, now net $2,600 - up 5,100%


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Thrilling Thursday – Our Apple Trade of the Year Pays Off Early!

Go Apple!!! 

AAPL was our 2014 trade of the year, so we are thrilled with their Q1 earnings and expecting to see $600 on this run (I sent an Alert to our Members early this morning and you can see it on Twitter as well) detailing our strategy as well as discussing PSW's Rule #1 and it's practical implications.  In our first Webcast of the year, we picked AAPL as our top trade idea and again, on TV on March 6th, I was almost embarrassed to say AAPL was once again our trade of the year for BNN (it was last year's trade too).  

NDX WEEKLYThe fact was, there simply wasn't a more obvious way to make money tnan buying AAPL at just over $500.  When AAPL dipped to $480 in February, we PRESSED our long bets from January, rather than abandon them.  As I was saying, our 2013 trade of the year was also AAPL and I hate to seem like I don't have any other ideas but that options spread netted 550%, turning $2,800 into $15,400 in 2013 (the spread matured this year at 614% but we killed it early).  

Rolling that $15,400 into this year's trade has another 525% of upside potential (at AAPL $650), which would return $80,850 if AAPL is at $650 or better in Jan 2016.  So, starting with $2,400 in Jan 2013, we can parlay our bet to $78,450 in profits (3,268%) in just 36 months – not bad!

This stuff isn't hard folks, that was starting with just two contracts in 2013 and following our trade of the year.  In 2012, our trade of the year was BAC – which turned out to be the best-performing stock in the S&P that year.  In fact, on Jan 5th of 2012, I laid out my case for putting 100% of your portfolio into BAC and simply leaving it there for the year.  I was even crazy enough to go on TV on the 17th and say the same thing!   Lucky it worked out, really…

Of course, we don't only make picks once a year.  Just yesterday morning, in Member chat, Wobat said: "Did i miss the debrief on AAPL?
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Upside Calls Active On UPS As Stock Hits Fresh Highs

UPS – United Parcel Service Inc. – Trading in weekly call options on the package delivery company indicates some traders are positioning for shares in UPS to continue higher this week, with shares in the name up 3.2% on Monday at a new all time high of $98.65. The company reported third-quarter earnings ahead of the opening bell on Friday.

Traders prepared to benefit from continued gains in the price of the underlying shares in the near term purchased calls on UPS this morning, buying around 775 of the Nov 01 ’13 $97 strike calls for an average premium of $0.60 each, and picking up around 675 of the Nov 01 ’13 $98 strike calls for an average premium of $0.50 apiece. Call buyers stand ready to profit at expiration this week in the event that shares in UPS settle above the breakeven points at $97.60 and $98.50, respectively. 

CROX – Crocs, Inc. – Shares in footwear and apparel maker Crocs fell more than 6.0% during morning trading to $12.95, the lowest level since September 10th, after the stock was cut to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Overweight’ with a target share price of $15.00 from $18.00 at Piper Jaffray.

Trading in the March expiry put options suggests one or more traders are bracing for the price of the underlying to extend losses during the next five months. Upwards of 2,000 of the Mar ’14 $13 strike puts have changed hands so far in the session against open interest of 413 contracts, and it looks like most of the volume was purchased at a premium of $1.40 each. Put buyers stand ready to profit at expiration if shares in CROX decline 10% from the current price of $12.95 to breach the breakeven


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Bull Call Spread On LVS Looks For Q3 Earnings To Impress

 

Today’s tickers: LVS, CROX & F

LVS - Las Vegas Sands Corp. – Casino stocks are popping today in sympathy with Wynn Resorts Ltd. after that company posted better-than-expected third-quarter earnings, announced plans to double its regular quarterly dividend and declared a $7.50 a-share special cash dividend. Las Vegas Sands Corp., which is scheduled to release third-quarter results tomorrow, rallied as much as 4.5% on Thursday morning to hit $46.30 in the early going. One options player appears to be positioning for further near-term upside with the purchase of a bull call spread in the newly issued weekly options that expire one week from tomorrow. It looks like the trader purchased a 400-lot Nov. 02 ’12 $47.5/$50 call spread for a net premium of $0.54 per contract. The strategy makes money if shares in LVS increase 5% from the current level of $45.70 to top the effective breakeven point at $48.04, with maximum potential profits of $1.96 per contract available on the position should shares surge 9.4% to hit $50.00 by expiration next week.

CROX - Crocs, Inc. – Shares in plastic-clog maker, Crocs, Inc., are getting slammed today after the company’s fourth-quarter top and bottom line estimates came in lower than analysts expected. The stock is down more than 20% at $12.89 as of 12:05 p.m. in New York. Crocs reported better-than-expected third-quarter profits after the final bell on Wednesday, but missed expectations for revenue in the quarter. Front month put activity on CROX this morning suggests one or more traders are holding out hope for a mild recovery in the shares in the near term. The sale of around 1,800 puts at the Nov. $13 strike provides an average premium of $0.32 per contract to sellers, who keep the full amount of premium as long as shares in the shoe maker exceed $13.00 at expiration next month. The puts were sold within the first couple of minutes of the opening bell this morning…
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Traders Feast On CROX, YUM Call Options

 

Today’s tickers: CROX, YUM & LOW

CROX - Crocs, Inc. – The tail may be wagging the dog at casual footwear maker, Crocs, Inc., today with heavy trading traffic in August expiry calls preceding a sharp upside move in the price of the underlying early in the trading session. The stock fell 1.9% at the open and continued to trade in negative territory until a burst of call activity at approximately 9:40 a.m. saw the stock bounce off its lows and gain as much as 6.3% to $15.03. Upwards of 3,500 option contracts have changed hands on CROX thus far in the session, with more than nine calls trading for each put option in play. In- and out-of-the-money calls expiring in August are seeing the most action, with some 1,900 in-the-money contracts purchased for an average premium of $1.00 each at the $14 strike. Another 2,000 contracts traded to the middle of the market at the Aug. $15 strike at an average premium of $0.58 apiece, while 825 calls were picked up at the $16 strike for a premium of $0.30 per contract. The trader or traders responsible for the activity may be positioning for shares to rise following the company’s second-quarter earnings report next Wednesday after the final bell.

YUM - YUM! Brands, Inc. – The operator of fast food restaurant chains KFC, Pizza Hut and Taco Bell, reports second-quarter earnings after the final bell this afternoon. Call spreads initiated on YUM this morning suggests one trader is prepared to profit should shares in the name post single-digit gains ahead of July expiration later in the week. China growth concerns, the crisis in Europe and flagging U.S. consumer confidence have weighed on YUM shares in recent months, with the stock currently down 13% off the April 20th all-time high of $74.44. The stock today, however, is in positive territory with shares in the name up 1.1% at $65.13 just before midday in New York.…
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DISH Call Options Active After AT&T / T-Mobile Merger Falls Through

             Today’s tickers: DISH, CROX, USB & BPOP

DISH - DISH Network Corp. – Investors were busy buying call options on the provider of direct broadcast satellite subscription television service straight out of the gate this morning on speculation the company may have what AT&T needs after the potential deal with Deutsche Telekom’s T-Mobile USA unit fell through. Shares in DISH Network rallied sharply on news of the failed merger as analysts directed attention to the Englewood, Colorado-based Company’s spectrum, an attractive asset to AT&T, which needs to bulk up on wireless airwaves. DISH’s shares increased as much as 9.4% to $27.50 in the first half of the session, spurring some strategists to snap up call options in the front month. It looks like investors prepping for shares in DISH Network to extend gains in the near term purchased around 1,250 in-the-money calls at the Jan. 2012 $27 strike for an average premium of $1.50 each. Call buyers stand ready to profit at expiration next month in the event that shares in DISH rally another 3.6% to exceed the effective breakeven price of $28.50. Bullish activity spread to the Jan. 2012 $29 strike where some 230 calls were purchased at a premium of $0.65 per contract. DISH Network’s shares must soar 7.8% to top $29.65 in order for higher-strike call buyers to profit at expiration day in January.

CROX - Crocs, Inc. – Options traders slipped their feet into Crocs call options this morning, with shares in the rubber clog maker climbing as much as 6.7% to $15.53 today. Heavy call volume in the front month suggests some strategists are gearing up for substantial near-term gains in the price of the underlying stock. The company yesterday announced it obtained a five-year $70 million secured revolving line of credit to replace its existing $30 million asset backed line of credit. The CFO of the company said in a release that the new credit agreement provides “additional financial flexibility to invest in our strategic initiatives.” Bullish investors that purchased more than…
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Crocs, Inc. Options Active As Shares Tank

Today’s tickers: CROX, SHLD, TLM & DPZ

CROX - Crocs, Inc. – Lower-than-expected third- and fourth-quarter sales guidance from the maker of plastic clogs trounced shares in Crocs, Inc. today, roughly two weeks before the company’s official third-quarter earnings release on November 3. Shares in CROX plunged 39.15% to as low as $16.21 this morning. Options on Crocs are changing hands at a fairly rapid clip, with trading in calls outpacing that in puts by more than 3-to-1. Trading in CROX calls appears somewhat mixed. It looks like some strategists are buying call options to get ahead of any potential rebound in the price of the underlying should selling pressure ease up ahead of October expiration. The most active option is the Oct. $18 strike call, where more than 3,200 contracts changed hands by 11:25 am EDT against zero open positions. Investors paid or received an average premium of $0.43 per contract depending on whether they were buying- or selling-to-open the position. Buyers of the contracts profit at expiration in the event that shares in CROX rally 11.0% over the current price of $16.60 to surpass the average breakeven point at $18.43. Meanwhile, sellers of the calls walk away with the full $0.43 credit received as long as the shoemaker’s shares fail to rally above $18.00 at expiration.

The sharp drop in the price of the underlying may be just what some bearish strategists were hoping to see. Open interest indicates there are 770 existing positions open in the Nov. $27 strike put. Examining changes in the open interest level at that strike suggests 500 of the puts were likely purchased by one trader at a premium of $2.20 each this past Friday. Shares in Crocs ended the previous week at $26.97. The subsequent nosedive in the price of the underlying now sees the price tag on those puts 380.0% higher at $10.60 as of 11:30 am in New York. Premium on the put options may continue to climb if shares in CROX extend losses through November expiration. Options implied volatility on the stock jumped 28.4% to 87.9% in the first half of the session.

SHLD - Sears Holdings Corp. – A sizable bearish put spread on Sears Holdings Corp. may signal caution by at least one investor ahead of the specialty retailer’s third-quarter earnings report in less than one month. Shares in Sears rallied 3.4% to $75.00 by 12:30 pm in New York,…
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CEO Pick for J.C. Penney Sends Options Traders Into Overdrive

Today’s tickers: JCP, CROX, CSCO & KR

JCP - J.C. Penney Co., Inc. – Frenzied options trading ensued following reports that Ron Johnson, head of retail at Apple Inc., was named CEO of J.C. Penney Co. The news drove shares in the department store operator up 19.5% to $35.97by 1:40 pm in New York. The number of options in play on JCP today is approaching 171,000 contracts in afternoon trade, topping overall open interest on the stock of 160,338 contracts.Johnson’s appointment to JCP seems to have injected traders with a renewed sense of optimism on the department store owner. The previous four weeks were not kind to shares in J.C. Penney, which declined 27.3% since mid-May to $29.82 this past Friday.

Investors are exchanging roughly 1.6 call options on JCP for each single put option in action. June and July contract calls are the most active with in- and out-of-the-money call buying a seemingly popular strategy amongst traders. Investors who picked up calls a few hours ago at the start of the rally paid far less than the current asking price on the options in most cases. June $30 strike calls, for example, were purchased around 1,100 times earlier in the session for an average premium of $1.79 each. The now deep in-the-money calls currently tout a hefty price tag of $5.90 per contract. Trading traffic in options expiring this Friday ballooned during the session. Call volume at the June $32strike, the most at any single strike in the front month, is greater than 12,500 contracts against previously existing open positions of 3,818 contracts. Early-birds paid an average premium of around $0.46 per contract for those calls, which now have an asking price of $3.90 a-pop. July contract calls drew crowds, as well. The July $35 and $36 strike…
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Monday Market Movement – More Monetary Madness

Get ready for a crazy week!

We have data this week, we have the Fed and we have elections and yes, we have a worthless currency that’s worth less and less every day.  This morning, China’s PMI hit 54.7 for October, up from September’s 53.8 and indicating that China’s decision to raise rates had no impact on growth.   India found this thrilling and went up 1.4% (as of midnight) but the Nikkei flatlined because China’s gains are Japan’s losses at the moment as the Dollar failed to maintain an early pop to just 81.2 and fell back more than half a point in Asian trading.  

The yen’s moves have been "excessive" recently, a Japanese government official said Monday, but he declined to comment on whether Tokyo authorities intervened in the foreign exchange market earlier in the day to knock the currency lower. Exporters remained under selling pressure, with Canon off 0.6% and Toyota Motor down 1.1%. Honda Motor lost 3.4% despite reporting solid second-quarter earnings as the automaker cut its fiscal second-half net profit outlook.  Sony shares fell 2.2% as news that the electronics giant had returned a net profit in the July-September was offset by concerns over pressure on earnings at its television division.

"The soft U.S. dollar suggests that the market is still gearing up for a sizeable QE this week," said Greg Gibbs, currency strategist at RBS in Sydney. In Seoul, the market was modestly higher but investors were cautious ahead of the Fed meeting this week. Net selling by foreigners also tempered demand. "Some investors appear concerned that the Fed’s meeting this week may not take enough quantitative easing measures to satisfy market demands," said Lee Kyoung-min at Woori Investment & Securities in Seoul.

QE2, QE2 and more QE2 – this is the basis for the global rally.  How much QE2 will be enough to satisfy a global market that is now counting on AT LEAST $1Tn to be handed out by the Fed in 2011?  It’s not just QE2, of course, the Fed continues to hand out money to Wall Street on an almost daily basis through their Permanent Open Market Operations or "POMO" and that trade has become as reliable as our "3am Trade" on the Yen as we at PSW have now begun to follow the POMO schedule (as Goldman Sachs has been advising their own clients) to give…
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Phil's Favorites

How To Spend $45,000 On A $27,000 Car

Courtesy of Mike Shedlock, MishTalk

As cars become more expensive, and trade-ins worth less and less, buyers go deeper in debt on new cars.

Please consider taking a $45,000 Loan for a $27,000 Ride.

Consumers, salespeople and lenders are treating cars a lot like houses during the last financial crisis: by piling on debt to such a degree that it often exceeds the car’s value. This phenomenon—referred t...



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Zero Hedge

How To Spend $45,000 On A $27,000 Car

Courtesy of Mike Shedlock, MishTalk

As cars become more expensive, and trade-ins worth less and less, buyers go deeper in debt on new cars.

Please consider taking a $45,000 Loan for a $27,000 Ride.

Consumers, salespeople and lenders are treating cars a lot like houses during the last financial crisis: by piling on debt to such a degree that it often exceeds the car’s value. This phenomenon—referred t...



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Insider Scoop

These Analysts Love BellRing Brands

Courtesy of Benzinga

BellRing Brands Inc (NYSE: BRBR) is a nutrition products company known for its ready-to-drink protein shakes and was born out of the separation of Post Holdings Inc (NYSE: POST)....



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The Technical Traders

Welcome to the Zombie-land Of Investing - Part I

Courtesy of Technical Traders

This current market environment is very reminiscent of the 2006-08 market environment where price rotated into weakness on technicals and continued to establish new all-time price highs in the process – creating what we are calling a “zombie-land melt-up”.  This very dangerous price action is indicative of money chasing a falling trend.  Where technicals and fundamentals are suggesting that price is actually weakening quite substantial, yet the process of price exploration is continually biased towards the upside as investors continue to pile onto the back of the beast expecting a further melt-up.

Let’s take a look at what happened to the ES and Gold in 2006 an...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold Indicator Sending Fresh Bearish Message, Says Joe Friday!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Could the Gold/US Dollar ratio be sending a fresh concerning message to Gold bulls this week? Joe Friday says Yes!

This chart looks at the Gold/Dollar ratio over the past 8-years.

The intersection of two long-term channel met at (1) a few months ago. The ratio was testing the bottom of one as resistance and the top of another as resistance at the same time.

As the ratio was testing both channels as resistance, a sizeable bearish reversal pattern took place at (1).

Since the reversal pattern took place, the ratio has been heading lower.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am; The ratio is breaking below...



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Digital Currencies

3 Reasons Why One Trader Didn't "Manipulate" Bitcoin Price To $20K

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by William Suberg via CoinTelegraph.com,

Bitcoin price highs in 2017 were not the result of a single trader on an exchange, the CEO of payment company Circle claims. In a series of tweets on Nov. 4, Jeremy Allaire disputed ...



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Chart School

Gold Gann and Cycle Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Gold has performed well, golden skies are here again. In fact it has been a straight line move, and this is typically unusual and a pause can be expected.

It seems the markets are happy again, new highs in the SP500, US 10 year interest rates look to re bound, negative interest may soften. The US FED has reversed their QT and now doing $250BN (not QE) repo. The main point is the FED has stopped QT, and will do QE forever. The evidence now is the FED put is under market risk and the possibility of excessive losses do not exist. 

Point: If in future if there is market risk, the FED will print it's way out of it.
Subject To: In this blog view. The above is so until the amount required rocks confidence in the US dollar as a reserve currency.&n...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Today's Fed POMO TOMO FOMC Alphabet Soup Unspin

Courtesy of Lee Adler

But make no mistake, if the Fed wants money rates to stay down by another quarter, it will need to imagineer even more money.

That’s on top of the $281 billion it has already imagineered into existence since addressing its “one-off” repo market emergency on September 17. This came via  “Temporary” Repo Man Operations money, and $70.6 billion in Permanent Open Market Operations (POMO) money.

By my calculations that averages out to $7.4 billion per business day. That works out to a monthly pace of $155 billion or so.

If they keep this up, it will be more than enough to absorb every penny of new Treasury supply. That supply had caused the system to run out of money in mid September.  This flood of paper had been inundati...



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Biotech

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Courtesy of  , Visual Capitalist

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless co...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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