Posts Tagged ‘CS’

Credit Suisse Call Options In Play On A Down Day For Financial Stocks

 

Today’s tickers: CS, GM & TXT

CS - Credit Suisse Group – Call options changing hands on global financial services firm, Credit Suisse Group, this morning look for shares in the name to rally in the near term, perhaps following the Zurich, Switzerland-based company’s first-quarter earnings report one week from today. Shares in CS are down 4.6% on the session to stand at $27.50 just after midday in New York. The May $28 strike calls are seeing the most volume, with upwards of 2,700 lots in play versus open interest of 341 contracts. It looks like most of the volume was purchased at a premium of $0.75 apiece, thus positioning buyers to profit in the event that the price of the underlying increases 4.5% to settle above the breakeven price of $28.75 at expiration. Yesterday afternoon the May $29 strike calls also traded more than 2,500 times, with the bulk of those contracts purchased for $0.75 each. Upside call buyers may lose the full amount of premium paid for the options contracts should the rally in CS shares fail to materialize by May expiration. Though shares have surrendered approximately 10% of their value since touching a 52-week high of $30.40 on February 2nd, the stock continues to trade up 70% off the 52-week low of $16.09 reached back in August of 2012.

GM - General Motors Co. – Shares in General Motors are in negative territory today, down 1.5% at $29.03 as of 12:35 p.m. ET, amid a down day for U.S. stocks. It looks like some traders may be taking advantage of the dip in GM’s shares to initiate bullish bets on the stock ahead of the company’s first-quarter earnings report on May 2nd. Call options on the automaker are outpacing puts, with the call/put ratio hovering around 3.5 in early afternoon trading. Sizable volume in the June $31 and $33 strike calls caught our eye, though volume at both strikes is lighter than existing open interest levels. It looks like traders purchased around 4,000 calls at…
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Upside Calls Active At Credit Suisse

 

Today’s tickers: CS, HUN & MS

CS - Credit Suisse Group – Trading traffic in Credit Suisse options this morning suggests some traders are positioning for shares in the name to rally in the near term. The stock kicked off the final trading session of the week in rally-mode, helped higher by an upgrade to ‘overweight’ from ‘equalweight’ at Morgan Stanley. But, shares have since surrendered gains, trading flat at $28.16 as of 11:00 a.m. ET. The most active contracts on CS this morning are the Feb. $28 strike in-the-money call options, with roughly 5,000 lots in play versus open interest of 885 contracts. Traders shelled out an average premium of $1.11 per contract to buy the $28 strike calls, and may profit at expiration next month should shares in the financial services provider rally 3.4% to exceed the effective breakeven price of $29.11. Credit Suisse is scheduled to report fourth-quarter earnings on Thursday, February 7th, prior to the opening bell.

HUN - Huntsman Corp. – A big print in Huntsman Corp. put options pushed the maker of chemical products onto our ‘hot by options volume’ market scanner in the early going on Friday. Shares in HUN are currently down 0.70% on the day to stand at $17.57 as of 11:15 a.m. in New York trading. The single-largest transaction in options on Huntsman appears to be disaster insurance on the name, or protection against a sharp adverse move in the price of the underlying through May expiration. It looks like one strategist purchased roughly 18,000 puts at the May $12 strike for a premium of $0.20 apiece. The contracts make money at May expiration if shares in Huntsman Corp. plunge 33% from the current price of $17.57 to settle below the effective breakeven point at $11.80. Shares in Huntsman, up nearly 50% during the past six months, last traded below $11.80 in July 2012. The chemical company is scheduled to report fourth-quarter earnings in mid-February.

MS - Morgan
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Bearish Options On Vail Resorts Pay Off For Some Traders As Shares Slide

 

Today’s tickers: MTN, TRIP & CS

MTN - Vail Resorts, Inc. – Shares in ski resort operator, Vail Resorts, Inc., dropped sharply on Tuesday after the company posted a larger-than-expected first-quarter loss and warned it may miss its projected earnings target for the year. The stock currently trades down 9.2% on the day at $50.70 as of 11:00 a.m. in New York, the lowest level since August. Rising open interest levels and a review of time and sales data for transactions in MTN front-month put options on Monday indicates some strategists were anticipating the stock may pullback after earnings. Bearish players appear to have purchased around 200 puts at the Dec. $52.5 strike for an average premium of $0.65 each and more than 350 put options at the Dec. $55 strike at an average premium of $1.48 apiece. Traders prepared for Vail Resorts to hit an icy patch find the value of their contracts have more than tripled overnight, with premium on the $52.5 and $55 strike contracts rising to $2.50 and $4.60 apiece, respectively, as of 11:15 a.m. ET on Tuesday morning. Finally, traders also appear to be selling upside calls on Vail, with around 225 of the Dec. $57.5 strike calls hitting the bid price of $0.05 in the early going.

TRIP - TripAdvisor, Inc. – Shares in online travel company, TripAdvisor, Inc., are on the decline today, trading down 3.75% at $36.28 as of 11:30 a.m. ET. Upside call buying on the stock, however, suggests some strategists are positioning for the price of the underlying to rebound ahead of December expiration. Options volume on TRIP today is greatest in the front month calls, with heavy trading traffic in the $38 and $39 strike contracts. Traders exchanged some 1,400 call options at the Dec. $38 strike and another 1,100 lots at the higher Dec. $39 strike. It looks like most of these calls were purchased earlier in the trading session at average premiums of $0.65 and…
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Coventry Call Buyers In The Black Following Aetna Deal

 

Today’s tickers: CVH, CS & WYNN

CVH - Coventry Health Care, Inc. – Options traders who purchased Coventry Health Care call options earlier this month are sitting on substantial paper profits this morning; shares in the managed care company rose 19% to a new four-year high of $41.70 on news Aetna is buying the company for $42.08 a share, in a deal valued at $7.3 billion. One winning trade initiated just before the weekend was the purchase of 220 of the Sept. $36 strike calls for a premium of $0.80 apiece. These contracts are now deep in-the-money and cost $5.80 each to purchase, or 7.25 times more than one trader paid on Friday afternoon. A larger bullish stake was established last Wednesday with the purchase of 2,650 of the Jan. 2013 $33 strike calls at a premium of $2.55 per contract. The asking price on the calls is currently up three-fold at $8.90 apiece as of 11:30 a.m. in New York. Finally, the purchase of some 1,650 calls at the Sept. $35 strike for an average premium of $0.53 each back on August 6th has generated big potential profits. Traders who picked up the $35 calls at $0.53 apiece could currently sell the calls for 11 times as much, or $6.30 per contract, as of 11:40 a.m. ET. Another winner from the deal is hedge fund, Greenlight Capital, Inc., which disclosed a 4.98% stake in Coventry and a long position in around 3.1 million shares in Aetna in the second quarter ended June 30th.

CS - Credit Suisse, Inc. – Traders are buying upside call options on Credit Suisse for a second consecutive trading session, positioning for shares in the Swiss bank to rebound. The stock has lost 40% of its value since March 19th, slipping around 1.5% this morning to $17.98. On Friday, buyers stepped in to pick up approximately 4,000 of the Sept. $18.97 strike calls for an average premium of $0.50 each…
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Bullish Spreads Take Shape In Walgreen Options Ahead Of Earnings

Today’s tickers: WAG, CS, BMC & NOK

WAG - Walgreen Co. – Less than one week remains before Walgreen’s first-quarter earnings report, and a large options trade initiated on the stock this morning prepares one strategist to potentially enjoy big profits should the drugstore chain’s performance send shares skyward. Walgreen Co.’s shares today are up 1.0% at $33.94 in afternoon trade. It looks like the bullish player established a sizable call spread, buying at least 9,200 calls at the Jan. 2012 $35 strike and selling the same number of calls up at the Jan. 2012 $39 strike, all for a net premium outlay of $1.20 per contract. The investor may profit at expiration day next month as long as WAG’s shares rally another 6.7% to surpass the effective breakeven price of $36.20. Maximum possible profits of $2.80 per contract are available to the trader in the event that Walgreen’s shares soar 14.9% to exceed $39.00 at expiration in January.

CS - Credit Suisse Group – Call options on Credit Suisse are more active than usual today on news the financial services provider plans to merge operations of its investment banking and private banking units to lower costs. Shares in the second-largest Swiss bank rallied as much as 3.85% to $23.45 in the first half of the trading session. Fresh prints in Jan. 2012 contract call options indicate some investors are positioning for Credit Suisse Group’s shares to rise as the New Year gets underway. Traders exchanged more than 11,000 calls at the Jan. 2012 $25 strike against open interest of just 79 contracts. It looks like one trader generated much of the volume, buying 5,200 of the call options for an average premium of $0.90 a-pop. The investor stands prepared to profit should the Swiss bank’s shares surge 10.4% to top $25.90 at expiration next…
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Monday Meltdown – Global Edition

108%!

That’s how much Greece is paying today to borrow money for a year!  In theory, if you lend Greece $10,000 today, next year they will pay you back $20,800.  In THEORY that is because, at 108% – IF they actually borrowed at that rate, you could be very sure that they would not be around to pay you.  That’s the joke of this whole thing – we have these insanely unrealistic prices being set on bonds, which only hurts the people who have outstanding ones and need to redeem them as Greece doesn’t actually borrow money for even double-digit interest rates.  It’s all a silly, artificial construct that is only useful in spreading panic among investors.  

Unfortunately, investor panic is all you need to really destroy the Global economy – as we proved in 2008.  As you can see from the chart on the right, we are currently mirroring the same path we took 3 years ago as we head into October and, in fact, our financial sector is performing WORSE than it did when we had ACTUAL major bank and minor country failures – not just rumors of them.  

On Friday, Greece’s finance minister, Evangelos Venizelos, blamed “organized rumors” for renewed speculation that Greece would default, and said the country intended to comply with all terms needed for the bailout that European countries agreed to in July. But the fact that the details of the deal have yet to be locked down has unnerved some investors.

In a speech this week, Josef Ackermann, the chief executive of Deutsche Bank, said it was not justifiable for politicians to demand that European banks raise more capital, as Christine Lagarde (DSK’s evil replacement), the head of the International Monetary Fund, had done. “It’s obvious,” he said, “that many European banks would not be able to handle writing down the sovereign bonds they hold on their banking books to market levels.”

Patrick Chappatte - The International Herald Tribune - Stock market panic - English - Economy,USA,Finance,Subprime,Crisis,Stock Market,Wall Street,Crash,Bank,Speculation,Housing,FearBut, he said, it would “risk undermining the credibility” of European bailout packages “if politicians were to now send out the signal that they do not believe in the success of those measures.” And, he argued, forcing banks to raise capital now would anger investors by forcing the dilution of current shareholders

 "Risk undermining the credibility of European bailout packages?!?"  Is this guy freakin’ kidding?  Greece is being "bailed out" and the market rate on their debt…
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Monday – Mubarak’s Mood May Move Morning Markets

Is it safe?  

I asked that question at the end of November in "Timid Tuesday – Is It Safe" and here we are, 60 days later and up 7.5% and, on the whole, feeling less safe than we did back then, when the Market Oracle and I seemed to be the only people concerned global inflation and sovereign default risks rising rapidly.  Although we were playing the market bullishly, with our aggressive $10,000 Virtual Portfolio (and make sure you check out our brand new $25,000 Virtual Portfolio that begins today with a $100,000 goal by December 31st) we decided to try to take from $26,000 to $50,000 by Jan 21st (we only made $35,000), our Breakout Defense Plays (5,000% in 5 Trades or Less) and our Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges – it was with one hand on the exit door at all times.  As I said at the close of Timid Tuesday’s article: "This house of cards is teetering folks – please be careful out there!

That was 60 days ago.  We’re a lot older now and have learned a lot about the World since then.  We learned that China, Japan and the IMF are all ready, willing and able to buy the bonds of various EU nations.  We learned that the Dollar can still fall 5% (was 81.44 on November 30th) further down despite Europe’s very obvious problems and Japan’s MASSIVE 200% Debt to GDP ratio.  We learned that Uncle Ben will never stop printing money (until forced) and we learned that commodities can rise much faster than even our aggressive "Secret Santa" plays anticipated, with every one of our hedges (XHB, XLE, DBA and XLF) already over our year-end targets, all on track for gains well over 100%.  

After watching our Alpha 2 pattern break (as I predicted it would on Monday morning) for the week, we went a lot more bearish on Thursday when I said in that morning post: 

Keep in mind that gold and silver are our defensive plays. In Member Chat yesterday, Jromeha mentioned he’s 80% in cash and 85% short the market on the 20% in play and I said I thought that was an excellent way to play what I felt was a blow-off top after the Fed. We added 2 disaster hedges yesterday, a TZA spread that pays 500% if we get to $17 by


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More Money Monday – Corporate America’s $2Tn Pile of Cash

$2,000,000,000,000 is a lot of cash.

That’s about how much America’s 500 largest NON-FINANCIAL companies have on their books.  This is up about $500,000,000,000 from last year as 2010 has been very, very good for corporate profits, which are growing at a 36% pace this year and we’ll get a better insight into that this earnings season.  Right now, our biggest problem is a lack of faith in the economy.  As we noted last week, temp hiring is near records but real hiring is not there at all – companies are using what turnaround there is to save up for the next rainy day. 

Sales are still weak but profit margins have expanded tremendously and Poor Sales is still listed as the single most important problem by 30% of the CEO’s surveyed, followed by Taxes (22%) and Regulations (13%).  If poor sales to the consumer are the main problem, then what is the logic of laying off more workers and lobbying against more stimulus?  As Brett Arends noted this weekend, we are hardly sliding into Socialism with Federal Spending at 25% of the economy this year vs. 23.5% under Reagan – and he didn’t have a $1Tn annual military budget (his was $200Bn and was considered out of control at the time) nor did he have a $400Bn annual interest payment on existing debt (Reagan pretty much invented modern debt – before him, we had the same debt since WWII). 

Lack of consumer spending is the prime factor holding back the recovery at the moment and who can blame them.  Unemployment has sidelined 22% (not a typo) of the men aged 25-65 in America.  That does not count those who are working part-time or full-time at low-paying jobs – that is 18M men between 25 and 65 in the United States of America who have no jobs at all!  And what does our government do about it?  They cut off their unemployment benefits – as if there are 18M job openings and these guys are just lazy…

There were, in fact, 3.1M job openings in April and that was up 24% from last year so that means that "just" 14.9M American men of working age are structurally unemployed.  Structural unemployment is joblessness caused not by lack of demand, but by changes in demand patterns or obsolescence of technology, and requiring retraining of workers and large investment in new capital
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Jobless Thursday – Max Keiser Bashes Banks

This is a good one!

 

I've never embedded a video before but you just have to see this so I'm learning a new trick.  Keiser puts out some gems like:

  • Goldmans Sachs, JPM, CitigGroup are all engaged in accounting fraud
  • The American peasants have got to be the stupidest people in the World today.  They don't mind becoming peasants, they don't mind living like peasants and, if that's the case, then we should do nothing to stop them from sliding into a peasant class. 
  • Banks are just stealing money outright from the World economy.
  • There is no liquidity being provided by the banks, they are hoarding their cash and non-disclosing their losses.
  • In part 2 of the video: "The reality is people are dying due to the actions of JPM, GS and the Wall Street Jihadists"

Max compares Wall Street bankers to suicide bombers and predicts it is only a matter of time before they are back before Congress with a gun to their heads threatening the destruction of America if they don't get another bailout.  I'm glad he said it an not me because I get enough hate mail from GS fans…  Keiser makes the point that, while the American people may put up with this nonsense, the leaders of Europe and Russia and China look at what's going on here and have no faith in our currency.

I think this is great as it saves me from ranting and raving this morning.  I had my fill in yesterday's post when I said the only way to play this market to the bull side is to suspend all logical disbelief.  Fortunately, we had a huge, ridiculous run-up in the morning that gave us tremendous shorting opportunties.  Even as the market was rising, in my 9:56 Alert to Members, we targeted the DIA $99 puts at $1.30 and those finished the day at $2 (up 54%) and in my 10:32 Alert to Members we sold the FAZ $19 puts for $1.80 and those finished the day at $1.20 (up 33%).  We also took short plays as the market topped on MS, IYT, CS, ICE, V, GMCR, DD, EBAY and even our beloved AAPL as the market was just too ridiculous looking to be bullish. …
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Friday Morning – Goldman’s Global Goose!

We have talked about manipulation all week but this takes the cake!

The Nikkei was plunging 250 points this morning as the dollar collapsed (in a move to boost commodities and the US markets – more on that later) below the critical 94 Yen mark and, EXACTLY AT THE MOMENT the Nikkei crossed the critical 10,200 line we've been watching all week (11 am, just as they were closing for lunch), Kathy Matsui, chief equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, jumped on the phone and literally stopped the presses by calling for a 73% increase in Japan's corporate profits next year buoyed by cost cuts, a weaker yen and rising demand.  “People are going to be surprised at how sharp the recovery will be,” Matsui said in a phone interview.  

Goldman’s estimates equate to 48.9 yen in earnings per share for the Topix in the financial year ending March 2011, placing the benchmark at 19.4 times estimated earnings. The brokerage also reversed its forecast among all industries to a 23.3 percent increase in pretax profits this year from a 15 percent decline.  “Our forecasts for both the March 2010 and March 2011 financial years exceed consensus estimates largely due to our expectations of stronger global growth, continued restructuring benefits, and a weaker yen,” Matsui wrote in a report titled “Back in Black.”

Note that Ms. Matsui is the only analyst who sees this Asian miracle occurring this year as Global emerging-market equity funds posted their biggest weekly outflows of 2009 as investors pulled money out of China on concern banks expanded credit too rapidly, EPFR Global said.  Funds that invest in emerging-market stocks worldwide lost $946 million, while China funds had their worst week since the first quarter of 2008, according to the Cambridge, Massachusetts-based research company. Investors pulled $810 million from Asia excluding-Japan funds, the most in 24 weeks, while Latin America and Europe, Middle East and Africa funds had “modest inflows,” said EPFR, which tracks funds with $10 trillion worldwide.  

This amazing 200% reversal of forecast timed at 10pm on option expiration eve East Coast time, took the S&P futures from 996 all the way back to 1,010 and took the Dow futures from 9,250 (down 100 from Thursday's close) all the way to 9,375.  The Nikkei managed a "stick save" and finished the day down "just" 1.4% at 10,250 and the
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Phil's Favorites

Don't fear a 'robot apocalypse' - tomorrow's digital jobs will be more satisfying and higher-paid

  Don't fear a 'robot apocalypse' – tomorrow's digital jobs will be more satisfying and higher-paid

Tomorrow’s good jobs will require digital skills like programming. alvarez/Getty Images

Courtesy of Christos A. Makridis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

If you’re concerned that automation and artificial intelligence are going to disrupt the economy over the next decade, join the club. But while policymakers and academics agree there’ll be significant disruption, they differ about its impa...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Financial Crisis Deja Vu: Home Construction Index Double Top?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Most of us remember the 2007-2009 financial crisis because of the collapse in home prices and its effect on the economy.

One key sector that tipped off that crisis was the home builders.

The home builders are an integral piece to our economy and often signal “all clears” or “short-term warnings” to investors based on their economic health and how the index trades.

In today’s chart, we highlight the Dow Jones Home Construction Index. It has climbed all the way back to its pre-crisis highs… BUT it immediately reversed lower from there.

This raises concerns about a double top.

This pr...



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Zero Hedge

Fiat Cuts 1,500 Jobs At Canada Minivan Plant

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

If the consumer has gone cold or just silly millennials not forming families because of their limited financial mobility due to insurmountable debts, minivan demand in North America is plunging, resulting in planned production cuts and job losses at one Fiat Chrysler Automobiles plant in Canada. 

Bloomberg reports Fiat will cut productio...



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Insider Scoop

A Peek Into The Markets: US Stock Futures Plunge Amid Coronavirus Fears

Courtesy of Benzinga

Pre-open movers

U.S. stock futures traded lower in early pre-market trade. South Korea confirmed 256 new coronavirus cases on Thursday, while China reported an additional 327 new cases. Data on U.S. international trade in goods for January, wholesale inventories for January and consumer spending for January will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. The Chicago PMI for February is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET, while the University of Michigan's consumer sentime...



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Biotech & Health

Could coronavirus really trigger a recession?

 

Could coronavirus really trigger a recession?

Coronavirus seems to be on a collision course with the US economy and its 12-year bull market. AP Photo/Ng Han Guan

Courtesy of Michael Walden, North Carolina State University

Fears are growing that the new coronavirus will infect the U.S. economy.

A major U.S. stock market index posted its biggest two-day drop on record, erasing all the gains from the previous two months; ...



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The Technical Traders

SPY Breaks Below Fibonacci Bearish Trigger Level

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our research team wanted to share this chart with our friends and followers.  This dramatic breakdown in price over the past 4+ days has resulted in a very clear bearish trigger which was confirmed by our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system.  We believe this downside move will target the $251 level on the SPY over the next few weeks and months.

Some recent headline articles worth reading:

On January 23, 2020, we ...



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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

...

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Chart School

Oil cycle leads the stock cycle

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Sure correlation is not causation, but this chart should be known by you.

We all know the world economy was waiting for a pin to prick the 'everything bubble', but no one had any idea of what the pin would look like.

Hence this is why the story of the black swan is so relevant.






There is massive debt behind the record high stock markets, there so much debt the political will required to allow central banks to print trillions to cover losses will likely effect elections. The point is printing money to cover billions is unlikely to upset anyone, however printing trillions will. In 2007 it was billions, in 202X it ...

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Members' Corner

Threats to democracy: oligarchy, feudalism, dictatorship

 

Threats to democracy: oligarchy, feudalism, dictatorship

Courtesy of David Brin, Contrary Brin Blog 

Fascinating and important to consider, since it is probably one of the reasons why the world aristocracy is pulling its all-out putsch right now… “Trillions will be inherited over the coming decades, further widening the wealth gap,” reports the Los Angeles Times. The beneficiaries aren’t all that young themselves. From 1989 to 2016, U.S. households inherited more than $8.5 trillion. Over that time, the average age of recipients rose by a decade to 51. More ...



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Digital Currencies

Altcoin season 2.0: why bitcoin has been outgunned by crypto rivals since new year

 

Altcoin season 2.0: why bitcoin has been outgunned by crypto rivals since new year

‘We have you surrounded!’ Wit Olszewski

Courtesy of Gavin Brown, Manchester Metropolitan University and Richard Whittle, Manchester Metropolitan University

When bitcoin was trading at the dizzying heights of almost US$2...



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ValueWalk

What US companies are saying about coronavirus impact

By Aman Jain. Originally published at ValueWalk.

With the coronavirus outbreak coinciding with the U.S. earnings seasons, it is only normal to expect companies to talk about this deadly virus in their earnings conference calls. In fact, many major U.S. companies not only talked about coronavirus, but also warned about its potential impact on their financial numbers.

Q4 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Coronavirus impact: many US companies unclear

According to ...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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