Posts Tagged ‘current financial crisis’

An Unusually Cheery Set of Links

An Unusually Cheery Set of Links

By inoculatedinvestor, courtesy of Zero Hedge

Intro: "For a change, this week I decided to only comment on links that suggest that everything in the world is rosy and that the US is already in the middle of an impressively sound V-shaped recovery. Too bad I couldn’t find anyone who argued either of those points credibly. Oh well, guess everyone will have to settle for yet another dose of reality."  

Peggy NoonanPeggy Noonan pulls no punches: In one of her latest missives in the Wall Street Journal, Peggy Noonan poses a very simple question. Do today’s leaders of America really care about the future of this country? I often worry that the re-election cycle has gotten so short and the incentive to pass the burden onto future lawmakers is now so pervasive that we can do no better than short-sighted, even foolish near term fixes to current problems. Extend and pretend when it comes to financial companies and kick the can down the road when it comes to the bulging deficit seem to have become the official policies in Washington. Clearly, no one wants to force any more pain on already strained American households. But at what point do the consequences of the actions being taken actually become magnitudes worse than the painful rebalancing and restructuring we could choose to face today? It is within this context that Noonan posits an interesting theory. Her premise is that the current leaders have lived in a period of such US prosperity that they are essentially too arrogant to even contemplate the idea that country could be in the midst of a lasting decline:

When I see those in government, both locally and in Washington, spend and tax and come up each day with new ways to spend and tax—health care, cap and trade, etc.—I think: Why aren’t they worried about the impact of what they’re doing? Why do they think America is so strong it can take endless abuse?
 
I think I know part of the answer. It is that they’ve never seen things go dark. They came of age during the great abundance, circa 1980-2008 (or 1950-2008, take your pick), and they don’t have the habit of worry. They talk about their "concerns"—they’re big on that word. But they’re not really


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Stiglitz on the Financial Crisis

Stiglitz on the Financial Crisis

Joe StiglitzCourtesy of Jesse’s Café Américain

Joe Stiglitz describes the current financial crisis and prospective recovery quite well, and the conclusions he draws are remarkably similar to our own which is gratifying.

It’s good to hear these things from a distinguished Nobel laureate, and not just from your humble Propriétaire, while puttering over his daily bread.

Bloomberg
Stiglitz Says U.S. Economic Recovery May Not Be ‘Sustainable’

By Michael McKee

Sept. 4 (Bloomberg) — The U.S. economy faces a “significant chance” of contracting again after emerging from its worst recession since the 1930s, Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz said.

“It’s not clear that the U.S. is recovering in a sustainable way,” Stiglitz, a Columbia University professor, told reporters yesterday in New York.

Economists and policy makers are expressing concern about the strength of a projected economic recovery,…

Stiglitz said he sees two scenarios for the world’s largest economy in coming months. One is a period of “malaise,” in which consumption lags and private investment is slow to accelerate. The other is a rebound fueled by government stimulus that’s followed by an abrupt downturn — an occurrence that economists call a “W-shaped’ recovery.

“There’s a significant chance of a W, but I don’t think it’s inevitable,” he said. The economy “could just bounce along the bottom.”

Stiglitz said it’s difficult to predict the economy’s trajectory because “we really are in a different world.” He said the crisis of the past year was made worse by lax regulation that allowed some financial firms to grow so large that the system couldn’t handle a failure of any of them.

Big Banks

“These institutions are not only too big to fail, they are too big to be managed,” he said.

Finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of 20 nations meet in London Sept. 4-5 to lay the groundwork for a summit in Pittsburgh later this month, where leaders will consider measures to overhaul supervision of the financial system…

With so much excess capacity, the American economy faces a short-term threat of disinflation and possibly deflation, Stiglitz said. Wages may even decline, given recent high productivity and the likelihood of an extended period of high unemployment, he said.

Longer term, he said the Fed’s aggressive monetary policy will mean inflation becomes the greater threat. “With the magnitude of the deficits and the…
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Zero Hedge

$100 Oil Is A Distinct Possibility

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Nick Cunningham via Oilprice.com,

An oil price spike is starting to look increasingly possible, with a rerun of 2008 not entirely out of the question, according to a new report.

The outages from...



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ValueWalk

Kase Learning Shorting Conference: Limited-Time Offer

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Shorting Conference: Limited-time offer for my newsletter subscribers!

We had an incredibly positive response to our inaugural Kase Learning Shorting Conference back in May. Many attendees capitalized on some of the fantastic actionable short ideas presented that day.

On Monday, December 3, we’ll be hosting our second Shorting Conference at the NY Athletic Club. We’re also going to be livestreaming the entire day if you cannot attend in person.

...



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Phil's Favorites

10 Years and 10 Lessons from the Financial Crisis

 

10 Years and 10 Lessons from the Financial Crisis

Courtesy of Cullen Roche, Pragmatic Capitalism 

10 years. It feels like yesterday. Then again, sometimes when I look at the economic data it feels like it never even happened. Whether you feel like the crisis is a distant memory or still lingering I think we can all agree that these kinds of big events serve as important lessons for understanding how we will navigate the future. So, 10 years later, here are 10 big lessons I take away from the financial crisis:

  1. Fear wins in the short-term and loses in the long-term. This is probably the number one lesson from the crisis. Human beings have been making tremendous progress for thousands of years. The fina...


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Kimble Charting Solutions

Canadian Dollar Attempting Bullish Breakout

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Since 2011, the Canadian Dollar has been hit hard, losing nearly a third of its value, while creating a series of lower highs and lower lows.

After declining nearly 30% into the lows of 2016, the Canadian Dollar has been attempting to change its long-term trend as it has created a series of higher lows inside of rising channel (2).

Over the past few months, rising support has been tested several times. Currently, it is attempting to break above falling resistance at (3), inside of the rising cha...



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Insider Scoop

10 Biggest Price Target Changes For Tuesday

Courtesy of Benzinga.

  • Morgan Stanley raised NuVasive, Inc. (NASDAQ: NUVA) price target from $55 to $77. NuVasive shares closed at $68.40 on Monday.
  • Citigroup cut the price target for Lam Research Corporation (NASDAQ: LRCX) from $216 to $177. Lam Research shares closed at $154.74 on Monday.
  • Stifel Nicolaus boosted the price target on Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: ALXN) from $130 to $136. Alexion Pharmaceuticals shares closed at $128.51 on Monday Monday.
  • ...


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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Sep 23, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

More saber rattling between China and the U.S. did little to distract the market.

On Tuesday, President Donald Trump reiterated his hard-line stance on China during a news conference with Polish President Andrzej Duda and said the U.S. had “no choice” but to levy another $267 billion in duties on China. That would come on top of announced tariffs on about $200 billion in Chinese goods announced late Monday.  China responded with tariffs of 5% to 10% on $60 billion worth of U.S. products that will take effect Sept. 24, and said it may introduce more measures if the U.S. goes ahead with higher tariffs.

This seems to be the prevailing thought process, ...



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Members' Corner

Why obvious lies still make good propaganda

 

This is very good; it's about "firehosing", a type of propaganda, and how it works.

Why obvious lies still make good propaganda

A 2016 report described Russian propaganda as:
• high in volume
• rapid, continuous and repetitive
• having no commitment to objective reality
• lacking consistency

...

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Digital Currencies

Mania to Mania

 

Mania to Mania

Courtesy of 

“Russell rarely played the stock market and had little investing experience when he put around $120,000 into bitcoin in November 2017.”

This comes from a CNN money article, Bitcoin crash: This man lost his savings when cryptocurrencies plunged. From January 2017 through the peak in early 2018, Ethereum gained 16,915%.

Any time you have something go vertical, you just know that some peopl...



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Biotech

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Breast cancer type 1 (BRCA1) is a human tumor suppressor gene, found in all humans. Its protein, also called by the synonym BRCA1, is responsible for repairing DNA. ibreakstock/Shutterstock.com

By Jay Shendure, University of Washington; Greg Findlay, ...



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Mapping The Market

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

Via Jean-Luc:

Famed investor reflecting on his mistakes:

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

One that stands out for me:

Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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