Posts Tagged ‘Dave Fry’s Market Comment’

MARKET COMMENT

MARKET COMMENT

By Dave Fry, October 14, 2009

10,000 MEANS CLEAR SAILING?

This isn’t too surprising. Is this just a target met? Window dressing for Main Street? The exit signal?

No doubt folks will feel better about their own personal financial conditions while others, too logical or close to the action, will be scared stiff!

Out of sight, out of mind is the continued decline in the dollar as no one cares “today”.

So we get new highs on what passes for good corporate earnings news (JPM & INTC) and up we go. Volume was modest for the occasion while breadth was impressive and positive.

Read all of Dave Fry’s Market Comment here.>>

 

 
 

 
 

 


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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Jam Job Edition of Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, September 3, 2009

Jam it

There are only two conditions and markets worthy of comment today before tomorrow’s employment data: the ongoing annoying and manipulative end of day “jam jobs” and the action in gold.

Looking at the 5 minute SPY chart you can see ultra-light total volume and the big “stick save” into the close. What can we infer from this?

1. Someone knows the employment data and is front-running it believing it to be positive.
2. Someone wants to squeeze some shorts for fun and profit since volume is ultra-light and they have the resources/muscle to do it.
3. These are the types of activities that are the stuff for conspiracy theories regarding direct or indirect government meddling in and propping of markets.
4. Where’s the SEC to investigate this type of trading especially if it’s derived from inside information? Oh, they’re busy playing nanny to leveraged ETFs and other low hanging fruit.

The other story of course today is gold followed by its companion silver. But, let’s stick with gold for today…

Continue here.>>>

 


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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Courtesy of Dave Fry at ETF Digest, August 20, 2009

IF AIN’T BROKE, DON’T FIX IT.
How the CFTC is Needlessly Breaking Good Products

DBC (PowerShares DB Commodity Tracking Fund) and DBA (PowerShares DB Agricultural Fund) are in the news as the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Corporation) has revoked the position limit exemption for these funds. They have also intimidated the issuers of UNG (United States Natural Gas Fund) into not issuing more shares to meet demand effectively breaking the issue as an effective product and needlessly costing investors a fortune. In the case of UNG, this is part of government effort to squash speculation in energy markets, always a politically correct or populist thing to do.

In 2006 Deutsche Bank (DB) creatively brought to market DBC and DBA and later partnered these with PowerShares in a marketing arrangement.

The lead product, DBC is a wonderful creation. The primary benefit to investors was and is to give them exposure to commodity markets which are uncorrelated to conventional markets. This reduces risk as most studies have demonstrated. Further benefits included allowing investors market involvement without having to invest in expensive and often illiquid commodity pools, or exposure to potential high leverage…

So why pull the exemption now?

The image above may seem a little over the top and perhaps it is but let’s look at some facts.

From Wikipedia below is an abbreviated description of Gary Gensler, the new agent of change from the Obama Administration.

“After receiving a BS and an MBA from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, Gary Gensler spent 18 years at Goldman Sachs, making partner when he was 30, becoming head of the company’s fixed income and currency trading operations in Tokyo by the mid-’90s, and eventually the company’s co-head of finance.[3]

As the Treasury Department’s undersecretary for domestic finance in the last two years of the Clinton administration, Gensler found himself in the position of overseeing policies in the areas of U.S. financial markets, debt management, financial services, and community development. Gensler advocated the passage of the Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000, which exempted credit default swaps and other derivatives from regulation.

In March 2009, Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) attempted to block his nomination to


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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, August 19, 2009

Today I felt certain markets would decline, and they did so out of the gate. Since we’re primarily long and staying systematic I wasn’t feeling good initially. So after kicking the dog and yelling at the nice old woman next door, the Mrs. and I headed to our scheduled home inspection today. Upon our return 30 minutes before the close I noted markets were inexplicably up. What happened? Oil prices rose substantially and that fueled stock market gains so we’re told. Sounds strange but true. Here’s the reasoning (convoluted perhaps): a drop in energy supplies is a sign of rising demand, economic recovery and, Holy Green Shoots Batman! markets had to move higher.

You can’t make this stuff up.

Treasury bonds rallied and the dollar fell. It’s all quite strange actually since the former is a safe haven while the latter is inflationary.

The bottom line—“ours is not to reason why, ours is but to do and die.” Somewhere between Simpson and Tennyson is the truth…  continue here. 

A few of Dave’s charts: 

 

 

 


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Phil's Favorites

Companies promoting causes can be accused of 'wokewashing' - allying themselves only for good PR

 

Companies promoting causes can be accused of 'wokewashing' – allying themselves only for good PR

Ben & Jerry’s opened Art for Justice, which highlights the need for criminal justice reform and features art by formerly incarcerated artists. AP Images/Andy Duback

Courtesy of Kim Sheehan, University of Oregon

More consumers want companies to ...



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Zero Hedge

Google Slides After Antitrust Probe Expands Into Search And Android Businesses

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Google shares are sliding into late session after a CNBC report states 50 attorney generals are expanding their investigation into the technology company's search and Android businesses:

  • 50 ATTORNEYS GENERAL PROBING GOOGLE PREPARING TO EXPAND ANTITRUST PROBE BEYOND CO'S ADVERTISING BUSINESS - CNBC

  • 50 ATTORNEYS GENERAL INVESTIGATING GOOGLE PREPARING TO EXPAND ANTITRUST PROBE TO DIVE MORE DEEPLY INTO CO'S SEARCH & ANDROID BUSINESSES- CNBC

The investigation is being led by Texas Attorn...



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Insider Scoop

What Wall Street Thinks Of Google Cache

Courtesy of Benzinga

Alphabet, Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL) subsidiary Google announced a new partnership with Citigroup Inc (NYSE: C) to launc...



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The Technical Traders

Great Cycles Article PG 9 in TradersWorld Mag - Free

Courtesy of Technical Traders

  1. How to Use Price Cycles and Profit as a Swing Trader
  2. Geodetics and the Affairs of Men – USA, and China
  3. Cosmological Economics
  4. Time Machine
  5. Trading Means Pr...


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Digital Currencies

Is Bitcoin a Macro Asset?

 

Is Bitcoin a Macro Asset?

Courtesy of 

As part of Coindesk’s popup podcast series centered around today’s Invest conference, I answered a few questions for Nolan Bauerly about Bitcoin from a wealth management perspective. I decided in December of 2017 that investing directly into crypto currencies was unnecessary and not a good use of a portfolio’s allocation slots. I remain in this posture today but I am openminded about how this may change in the future.

You can listen to this short exchange below:

...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver Testing This Support For The First Time In 8-Years!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Its been a good while since Silver bulls could say that it is testing support. Well, this week that can be said! Will this support test hold? Silver Bulls sure hope so!

This chart looks at Silver Futures over the past 10-years. Silver has spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of the pink shaded falling channel, as it has created lower highs and lower lows.

Silver broke above the top of this falling channel around 90-days ago at (1). It quickly rallied over 15%, before creating a large bearish reversal pattern, around 5-weeks after the bre...



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Chart School

Gold Gann and Cycle Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Gold has performed well, golden skies are here again. In fact it has been a straight line move, and this is typically unusual and a pause can be expected.

It seems the markets are happy again, new highs in the SP500, US 10 year interest rates look to re bound, negative interest may soften. The US FED has reversed their QT and now doing $250BN (not QE) repo. The main point is the FED has stopped QT, and will do QE forever. The evidence now is the FED put is under market risk and the possibility of excessive losses do not exist. 

Point: If in future if there is market risk, the FED will print it's way out of it.
Subject To: In this blog view. The above is so until the amount required rocks confidence in the US dollar as a reserve currency.&n...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Today's Fed POMO TOMO FOMC Alphabet Soup Unspin

Courtesy of Lee Adler

But make no mistake, if the Fed wants money rates to stay down by another quarter, it will need to imagineer even more money.

That’s on top of the $281 billion it has already imagineered into existence since addressing its “one-off” repo market emergency on September 17. This came via  “Temporary” Repo Man Operations money, and $70.6 billion in Permanent Open Market Operations (POMO) money.

By my calculations that averages out to $7.4 billion per business day. That works out to a monthly pace of $155 billion or so.

If they keep this up, it will be more than enough to absorb every penny of new Treasury supply. That supply had caused the system to run out of money in mid September.  This flood of paper had been inundati...



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Biotech

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Courtesy of  , Visual Capitalist

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless co...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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