Posts Tagged ‘Dave Fry’s Market Comment’

MARKET COMMENT

MARKET COMMENT

By Dave Fry, October 14, 2009

10,000 MEANS CLEAR SAILING?

This isn’t too surprising. Is this just a target met? Window dressing for Main Street? The exit signal?

No doubt folks will feel better about their own personal financial conditions while others, too logical or close to the action, will be scared stiff!

Out of sight, out of mind is the continued decline in the dollar as no one cares “today”.

So we get new highs on what passes for good corporate earnings news (JPM & INTC) and up we go. Volume was modest for the occasion while breadth was impressive and positive.

Read all of Dave Fry’s Market Comment here.>>

 

 
 

 
 

 


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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Jam Job Edition of Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, September 3, 2009

Jam it

There are only two conditions and markets worthy of comment today before tomorrow’s employment data: the ongoing annoying and manipulative end of day “jam jobs” and the action in gold.

Looking at the 5 minute SPY chart you can see ultra-light total volume and the big “stick save” into the close. What can we infer from this?

1. Someone knows the employment data and is front-running it believing it to be positive.
2. Someone wants to squeeze some shorts for fun and profit since volume is ultra-light and they have the resources/muscle to do it.
3. These are the types of activities that are the stuff for conspiracy theories regarding direct or indirect government meddling in and propping of markets.
4. Where’s the SEC to investigate this type of trading especially if it’s derived from inside information? Oh, they’re busy playing nanny to leveraged ETFs and other low hanging fruit.

The other story of course today is gold followed by its companion silver. But, let’s stick with gold for today…

Continue here.>>>

 


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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Courtesy of Dave Fry at ETF Digest, August 20, 2009

IF AIN’T BROKE, DON’T FIX IT.
How the CFTC is Needlessly Breaking Good Products

DBC (PowerShares DB Commodity Tracking Fund) and DBA (PowerShares DB Agricultural Fund) are in the news as the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Corporation) has revoked the position limit exemption for these funds. They have also intimidated the issuers of UNG (United States Natural Gas Fund) into not issuing more shares to meet demand effectively breaking the issue as an effective product and needlessly costing investors a fortune. In the case of UNG, this is part of government effort to squash speculation in energy markets, always a politically correct or populist thing to do.

In 2006 Deutsche Bank (DB) creatively brought to market DBC and DBA and later partnered these with PowerShares in a marketing arrangement.

The lead product, DBC is a wonderful creation. The primary benefit to investors was and is to give them exposure to commodity markets which are uncorrelated to conventional markets. This reduces risk as most studies have demonstrated. Further benefits included allowing investors market involvement without having to invest in expensive and often illiquid commodity pools, or exposure to potential high leverage…

So why pull the exemption now?

The image above may seem a little over the top and perhaps it is but let’s look at some facts.

From Wikipedia below is an abbreviated description of Gary Gensler, the new agent of change from the Obama Administration.

“After receiving a BS and an MBA from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, Gary Gensler spent 18 years at Goldman Sachs, making partner when he was 30, becoming head of the company’s fixed income and currency trading operations in Tokyo by the mid-’90s, and eventually the company’s co-head of finance.[3]

As the Treasury Department’s undersecretary for domestic finance in the last two years of the Clinton administration, Gensler found himself in the position of overseeing policies in the areas of U.S. financial markets, debt management, financial services, and community development. Gensler advocated the passage of the Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000, which exempted credit default swaps and other derivatives from regulation.

In March 2009, Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) attempted to block his nomination to


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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, August 19, 2009

Today I felt certain markets would decline, and they did so out of the gate. Since we’re primarily long and staying systematic I wasn’t feeling good initially. So after kicking the dog and yelling at the nice old woman next door, the Mrs. and I headed to our scheduled home inspection today. Upon our return 30 minutes before the close I noted markets were inexplicably up. What happened? Oil prices rose substantially and that fueled stock market gains so we’re told. Sounds strange but true. Here’s the reasoning (convoluted perhaps): a drop in energy supplies is a sign of rising demand, economic recovery and, Holy Green Shoots Batman! markets had to move higher.

You can’t make this stuff up.

Treasury bonds rallied and the dollar fell. It’s all quite strange actually since the former is a safe haven while the latter is inflationary.

The bottom line—“ours is not to reason why, ours is but to do and die.” Somewhere between Simpson and Tennyson is the truth…  continue here. 

A few of Dave’s charts: 

 

 

 


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Phil's Favorites

Pop Culture as an edge in business

 

Pop Culture as an edge in business

Courtesy of 

 

 

Josh here – once upon a time it was totally normal to be sitting face to face with a friend and talking across a table, and then they locked down New York City and you know what happened from there. Anyway, my friend Brooke Hammerling was the last person I met with before the shutdown and we taped this conversation about the importance being up on Pop Culture. Lots of business leaders struggle to understand what’s going on from day to day because they’re busy! Brooke’s new newsletter, Pop Culture Mondays, fi...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Trump Vaccine Czar Still Stands to Profit

 

Will there really be several hundred million doses of a COVID-19 vaccine by the end of 2020, which would be record fast vaccine develop, or is this just wishful thinking? Moncef Slaoui, former executive at GlaxoSmithKline and board member of Moderna (till recently) and newly appointed Trump official, says the vaccine will be ready. Either way, Moderna (MRNA) has received nearly half a billion dollars from the government, and its stock price has soared. Amee Vanderpool tells more of the story: 

 

Trump Vaccine Czar Still Stands to Profit

Courtesy of Amee Vanderpool, SHERO 

The Trump administration has announced an ambitious plan to develop and produce millions of doses of a new COVID-19 vaccine by t...



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ValueWalk

New home sales smashed expectations during economic crisis

By Gorilla Trades. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The major indices are all sporting considerable gains at midday, with the S&P 500, the Dow, and the Nasdaq all hitting new multi-month highs in early trading. The continued COVID-related optimism remains the main catalyst behind the rally in stocks and global risk assets and investors shrugged off the diplomatic standoff between the U.S. and China despite the protests in Hong Kong over the weekend. On another note, small-caps have been leading the way higher this morning, together with the key cyclical sectors and that bodes well for the rest of the week, especially as the main overseas indices have also been pushing higher this week.

[reit]

...

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Zero Hedge

"This Ship Is Sinking" - The Economy Is Holed Below The Waterline

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Bill Blain via MorningPorridge.com,

“Until then men felt they had found the answer to a steady, orderly, civilized life. For 100 years the Western world had been at peace. For 100 years technology had steadily improved. For 100 years the benefits of peace and industry seemed to be filtering satisfactorily through society. Life was all right. The Titanic woke them up.”

...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

King Dollar Could Double Topping; Commodities Would Benefit If It Does!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The U.S. Dollar has been a pillar of strength for the past 12-years, at it created higher lows starting in 2008, near the 70 level. Since these lows, it has rallied nearly 50%.

The 102 level was resistance for nearly 13-years (1987 to 2000) until an upside breakout took place.

The rally over the past 12-years took it up to test the 61% retracement level of its 2001 highs and 2008 lows and the 102 level again at (1), where it created back to back monthly bearish reversal patterns in 2017.

The rally over the past 2-years has King$ testing its 61% retracement...



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The Technical Traders

Chuck Jaffe Talks Technical Analysis on Money Life - Indexes & Metals

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Chuck Jaffe, the host of Money Life, is a veteran financial journalist and nationally syndicated financial columnist whose work appears in newspapers from coast to coast. Today he talks with Chris Vermeulen.

Chuck has been named to MutualFundWire’s list of the 40 Most Influential People in Fund Distribution and was the first journalist to make the list. Over the course of his career, he has won numerous awards for business and personal finance journalism.

...

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Lee's Free Thinking

US Southern States COVID19 Cases - Let's Give Credit Where Due

 

US Southern States COVID19 Cases – Let’s Give Credit Where Due

Courtesy of  

The number of new COVID 19 cases has been falling in the Northeast, but the South is not having the same experience. The number of new cases per day in each Southern state has been rangebound for the past month.

And that’s assuming that the numbers haven’t been manipulated. We know that in Georgia’s case at least, they have been. And there are suspicions about Florida as well, as the State now engages in a smear campaign against the fired employee who built its much praised COVID19 database and dashboar...



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Chart School

Is this your local response to COVID 19

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

This is off topic, but a bit of fun!


This is the standard reaction from the control freaks.








This is the song for post lock down!







What should be made mandatory? Vaccines, hell NO! This should be mandatory: Every one taking their tops off in the sun, they do in Africa!

Guess which family gets more Vitamin D and eats less sugary carbs, TV Show



...



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Digital Currencies

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

 

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

App-etising? LDprod

Courtesy of Michael Rogerson, University of Bath and Glenn Parry, University of Surrey

Food supply chains were vulnerable long before the coronavirus pandemic. Recent scandals have ranged from modern slavery ...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

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Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

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Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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