Posts Tagged ‘Dave’s Daily Market Comment’

Dave’s Daily

Dave’s Daily MARKET COMMENT

September 18, 2009

A REALLY BORING QUADWITCH

It wasn’t a spectacular day that’s for sure—more like a low scoring extra inning baseball game. But it was quadwitching nonetheless without any runs or hits as in volume. Whatever manipulations and adjustments needed to be made must have been done throughout the current week. What else could it be?  

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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, September 11, 2009

We’re just one of many who will post a remembrance of what happened eight years ago. We’ll never forget it. After living in Hawaii for 35 years we knew many kamaaina’s (locals) who lived through the attack on Pearl Harbor. They had many stories to tell of witnessing the event as it transpired. With TV during 9/11 we were all able to witness the tragedy and the wound will never heal.

Entire article here.>>

 

 


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Dave’s Daily

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MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, Sept. 4, 2009

DIP BUYERS PLAY IT AGAIN

If you’re in this business long enough (35 years for the Fryguy), just when you think you’ve seen everything, they play another game on you. This week it was down and dirty early only to yield to some squaring up at week’s end. Squaring up? I use those terms loosely since yesterday’s end of day jam-job was beyond suspicious. Let’s just say those buying the last 15 minutes yesterday had a (cough) hunch what was coming today.

If you think the employment data was good, or had some “kernels of hope” as one headline read, then bully and welcome to the new math and spin 2009 edition. You’d think with this cynical attitude I’d be disappointed, but how can we be when we’re long?

Volume was pathetically low but it’s the Friday before a long weekend so this is expected. Breadth was as positive as you’d expect.  

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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, September 1, 2009

stock market time bomb

You could feel it coming. The other day my image du jour was “running on empty” and that was the ominous warning we were sensing. Most trading systems don’t have a “feel” component and mine doesn’t either. The only logical thing which we’ve commented on repeatedly as have others is light volume and how the news hasn’t jived with reality. And, recently, investors have been selling good news versus buying bad news as before. Today good ISM and housing data failed to impress as the short sellers seized the tape. September’s are supposed to be the cruelest month but it’s never a sure thing.

Today, hedge fund leaders Paul Tudor Jones and others jumped on the short side questioning the validity and viability of the current rally as reported well in this Bloomberg story. They’ve thrown down the gauntlet to Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to prove that the economic recovery and market rally are for real. We’ll see who’s right ultimately but today they had the tape finding a lot of stops to hit. It was definitely their plan and was successfully orchestrated.

Volume increased substantially as stops were deliberately targeted and hit. The signature of this market has been (apart from Fed and options expiration days) heavier volume on down days than on up days which is a negative. Breadth was decidedly negative but not quite a 10/90 down day. 

 
 

 
 

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Dave’s Daily

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MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, August 21, 2009

clap

I had my little rant yesterday regarding the CFTC wrecking crew and there will be more to say—much more—over the next few months. But, today was options expiration…again…and options strike prices were being hunted down like a shark smelling blood.

But, hey, we’re basically long so let’s enjoy it while it lasts. It will last won’t it?

Home sales data was “better than expected” and Bernanke made a semi-bullish speech regarding future economic growth.  

 

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Dave’s Daily

Dave’s Daily Market Comment, August 17, 2009

Our son made me watch this gruesome movie, The 300, but the above line from it reminded me where the S&P 500 is presently (near 975) and a line bulls must defend. But, that’s looking at daily charts whereas longer term weekly and monthly charts may have a more tolerant feel and we’ll look at those further below.

It does seem that an accumulation of overbought conditions; an absence of positive news (or, even bad news to spin as positive); bullish fatigue noted here last week; heavy insider selling; and, more importantly, investors doing some old fashioned reasoning (ya know, bad news is really bad news) finally caught up with markets today.

I did note discomfort with things last week as rallies were feeble and selling seemed more intraday dominant then headlines would lead you to believe.

Volume today was heavier to the downside than previous up days which isn’t a good sign but has been the hallmark of this market for some time now. Breadth was decidedly negative although, as this is being done, it doesn’t appear as a negative 10/90 day.  

 
 

 
 

 
 

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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, August 13, 2009

Today’s action is more impressive than yesterday’s given the stream of “worse than expected” news from retail sales and jobless claims. Those predicting the recession’s end evidently shrugged all this off as old news. The bulls have the momentum. They believe the Fed and powers that be will do anything and everything to reflate asset prices. That should end the discussion right there.

Volume backed off again to the lower levels being recorded previously. Breadth was positive and the rally still lives thanks to financial and material sectors.  

 

 
 

 
 

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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, August 7, 2009

Okay, so the building tension before the unemployment data is relieved by buying on the (I’m really shocked!) “better than expected” unemployment data. This is the kind of response we’ve been conditioned to deal with for a long time. I’m not going to judge it just yet but it wasn’t a blockbuster day except in a few areas like financials and real estate related issues.

Volume was better than average for the day but on the week about the same as we’ve been seeing over the past few months now. Breadth was positive but not a 90/10 day blockbuster day.  

 

 

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Dave’s Daily

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MARKET COMMENT 

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, July 28, 2009

Big Brother (FINRA) has given Wall Street firms the cover to restrict ProShares, Direxion, Rydex and PowerShares products from use by their clients. This is being done under the guise of protecting them but that’s a smokescreen. You see these firms live and die off residual fee income generated by wrapped high fee products within financial plans. It’s very disruptive to fee income for FAs and clients to mess with the plan. It is no longer permitted to use them denying the investor and FA the choice and opportunities they present. Rather than allow your FA to protect you from 40-60% bear market losses they want you to stick with these plans and keep chucking the money to them. Some firms are even going so far as restricting the use of unleveraged short products which is downright silly but shows you the extent firms will go to protect the flow of fee income.

Here’s a typical wire house message sent to the troops purportedly by Morgan Stanley:

Policy Change on Inverse and Leveraged20ETFs
In June FINRA issued a Regulatory Notice indicating that inverse and leveraged ETFs that are reset daily, typically are unsuitable for retail investors who plan to hold them longer than one trading session, particularly in volatile markets… 

 

 
 

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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT 

Courtesy of Dave Fry at ETF Digest, July 27, 2009

dave's daily

Yeah, that’s it—when volumes are as light as this traders just push their “easy button” and markets are propped. Bad news, good news or no news, it makes little difference when you’re in control. So, who’s in control? The usual suspects.

And, speaking of those, the New York Magazine just put out a good and thorough read on Goldman Sachs… 

 

 

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Phil's Favorites

Tsunami Warning

 

Tsunami Warning

Courtesy of John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline

A tsunami is a wall of water that wipes out everything in its path, typically caused by earthquakes. But first, the water actually disappears from the usual shoreline, leaving land where there should be sea.

If you are on the shore and see that happen, the correct response is to run for high ground. Tragically, though, people often rush toward this new and unusual sight. It’s hard to blame them; we humans are drawn to the unknown. This impulse explains much of our progress, but it has costs, too.

Right now, the stock market is in the land-where-there-should-be-sea phase. What we don’t know is when the wave is coming. Maybe th...



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Biotech/COVID-19

No, vaccine side effects don't tell you how well your immune system will protect you from COVID-19

 

No, vaccine side effects don't tell you how well your immune system will protect you from COVID-19

It’s not a bad sign if you feel fine after your COVID-19 shot. Luis Alvarez/DigitalVision via Getty Images

Courtesy of Robert Finberg, University of Massachusetts Medical School

If someone gets a headache or feels a bit under the weather after receiving a COVID-19 vaccine, it’s become common to hear them say something like “Oh, it just means my immune system is really working hard.” On the flip side...



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Zero Hedge

Shares Of Chinese Battery Maker CATL Surge As Company Said To Be Considered For Apple's EV Project

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Shares of Contemporary Amperex Technology were up as much as 9% in Shenzhen overnight on news that it could be the company involved in supplying batteries for Apple's electric vehicle project.

The jump in shares marks the best day for the company's stock in four months, Bloomberg reported Monday morning.

The report, which appears to be unconfirmed for the time being, was published in Xuangubao.cn, a Chinese online stock news platform. That platform did not report a source for the informati...



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Digital Currencies

A Unifying Theory of Everything

 

A Unifying Theory of Everything

Courtesy of Scott Galloway, No Mercy/No Malice@profgalloway

This week, New York Magazine let me go full stream of consciousness on … everything. Their editor pitched me the idea to articulate a unifying theory on “this whole crazy techno-fiscal moment.” Problem is, while I understand crypto better than 99 percent of people, I do not understand crypto.

On Wednesday, crypto pioneer Coinbase listed shares on the NASDAQ, and closed the day at an almost $100 billion valuation, making it nearly as valuable as Goldman Sachs. Coinbase’s big day made a bunch of wealthy people wealthier, but it also poked several bears — ...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Chart School

Money Printing Asset Price Targets

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

The FED giveth and the FED taketh away. Right now the FED is giving a lot into 2022 US Mid Terms. 

Unless the FED breaks the market, here are some BRRRRR asset price targets, not normal price targets but money printing adjusted price targets. 


BITCOIN 175,000 to 500,000 USD

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DOW to 40,000 to 50,000

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More DOW

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Politics

Colombia gives nearly 1 million Venezuelan migrants legal status and right to work

 

Colombia gives nearly 1 million Venezuelan migrants legal status and right to work

Venezuelans wait at the Colombian border to be processed and housed in tents in 2020. All Venezuelans now in Colombia will receive a 10-year residency permit. Schneyder Mendoza/AFP via Getty Images

Courtesy of Erika Frydenlund, Old Dominion University; Jose J. Padilla, Old Dominion University...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Will Historic Selloff In Treasury Bonds Turn Into Opportunity?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Long-dated treasury bonds have been crushed over the past year, sending ETFs like TLT (20+ Year US Treasury Bond ETF) spiraling over 20%.

Improving economy? Inflation concerns? Perhaps a combination of both… interest rates have risen sharply and thus bond prices have fallen in historic fashion.

Today’s chart looks at $TLT over the past 20 years. As you can see, the recent decline has truly been historic. $TLT’s price has swung from historically overbought highs to oversold lows.

At present, the long-dated bond ETF ($TLT) is trading 7.8% below its 200-...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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Promotions

Phil's Stock World's Weekly Webinar - March 10, 2021

Don't miss our latest weekly webinar! 

Join us at PSW for LIVE Webinars every Wednesday afternoon at 1:00 PM EST.

Phil's Stock World's Weekly Webinar – March 10, 2021

 

Major Topics:

00:00:01 - EIA Petroleum Status Report
00:04:42 - Crude Oil WTI
00:12:52 - COVID-19 Update
00:22:08 - Bonds and Borrowed Funds | S&P 500
00:45:28 - COVID-19 Vaccination
00:48:32 - Trading Techniques
00:50:34 - PBR
00:50:43 - LYG
00:50:48 - More Trading Techniques
00:52:59 - Chinese Hacks Microsoft's E...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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