Posts Tagged ‘Dave’s Daily Market Comment’

Dave’s Daily

Dave’s Daily MARKET COMMENT

September 18, 2009

A REALLY BORING QUADWITCH

It wasn’t a spectacular day that’s for sure—more like a low scoring extra inning baseball game. But it was quadwitching nonetheless without any runs or hits as in volume. Whatever manipulations and adjustments needed to be made must have been done throughout the current week. What else could it be?  

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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, September 11, 2009

We’re just one of many who will post a remembrance of what happened eight years ago. We’ll never forget it. After living in Hawaii for 35 years we knew many kamaaina’s (locals) who lived through the attack on Pearl Harbor. They had many stories to tell of witnessing the event as it transpired. With TV during 9/11 we were all able to witness the tragedy and the wound will never heal.

Entire article here.>>

 

 


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Dave’s Daily

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MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, Sept. 4, 2009

DIP BUYERS PLAY IT AGAIN

If you’re in this business long enough (35 years for the Fryguy), just when you think you’ve seen everything, they play another game on you. This week it was down and dirty early only to yield to some squaring up at week’s end. Squaring up? I use those terms loosely since yesterday’s end of day jam-job was beyond suspicious. Let’s just say those buying the last 15 minutes yesterday had a (cough) hunch what was coming today.

If you think the employment data was good, or had some “kernels of hope” as one headline read, then bully and welcome to the new math and spin 2009 edition. You’d think with this cynical attitude I’d be disappointed, but how can we be when we’re long?

Volume was pathetically low but it’s the Friday before a long weekend so this is expected. Breadth was as positive as you’d expect.  

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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, September 1, 2009

stock market time bomb

You could feel it coming. The other day my image du jour was “running on empty” and that was the ominous warning we were sensing. Most trading systems don’t have a “feel” component and mine doesn’t either. The only logical thing which we’ve commented on repeatedly as have others is light volume and how the news hasn’t jived with reality. And, recently, investors have been selling good news versus buying bad news as before. Today good ISM and housing data failed to impress as the short sellers seized the tape. September’s are supposed to be the cruelest month but it’s never a sure thing.

Today, hedge fund leaders Paul Tudor Jones and others jumped on the short side questioning the validity and viability of the current rally as reported well in this Bloomberg story. They’ve thrown down the gauntlet to Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to prove that the economic recovery and market rally are for real. We’ll see who’s right ultimately but today they had the tape finding a lot of stops to hit. It was definitely their plan and was successfully orchestrated.

Volume increased substantially as stops were deliberately targeted and hit. The signature of this market has been (apart from Fed and options expiration days) heavier volume on down days than on up days which is a negative. Breadth was decidedly negative but not quite a 10/90 down day. 

 
 

 
 

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Dave’s Daily

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MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, August 21, 2009

clap

I had my little rant yesterday regarding the CFTC wrecking crew and there will be more to say—much more—over the next few months. But, today was options expiration…again…and options strike prices were being hunted down like a shark smelling blood.

But, hey, we’re basically long so let’s enjoy it while it lasts. It will last won’t it?

Home sales data was “better than expected” and Bernanke made a semi-bullish speech regarding future economic growth.  

 

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Dave’s Daily

Dave’s Daily Market Comment, August 17, 2009

Our son made me watch this gruesome movie, The 300, but the above line from it reminded me where the S&P 500 is presently (near 975) and a line bulls must defend. But, that’s looking at daily charts whereas longer term weekly and monthly charts may have a more tolerant feel and we’ll look at those further below.

It does seem that an accumulation of overbought conditions; an absence of positive news (or, even bad news to spin as positive); bullish fatigue noted here last week; heavy insider selling; and, more importantly, investors doing some old fashioned reasoning (ya know, bad news is really bad news) finally caught up with markets today.

I did note discomfort with things last week as rallies were feeble and selling seemed more intraday dominant then headlines would lead you to believe.

Volume today was heavier to the downside than previous up days which isn’t a good sign but has been the hallmark of this market for some time now. Breadth was decidedly negative although, as this is being done, it doesn’t appear as a negative 10/90 day.  

 
 

 
 

 
 

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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, August 13, 2009

Today’s action is more impressive than yesterday’s given the stream of “worse than expected” news from retail sales and jobless claims. Those predicting the recession’s end evidently shrugged all this off as old news. The bulls have the momentum. They believe the Fed and powers that be will do anything and everything to reflate asset prices. That should end the discussion right there.

Volume backed off again to the lower levels being recorded previously. Breadth was positive and the rally still lives thanks to financial and material sectors.  

 

 
 

 
 

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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, August 7, 2009

Okay, so the building tension before the unemployment data is relieved by buying on the (I’m really shocked!) “better than expected” unemployment data. This is the kind of response we’ve been conditioned to deal with for a long time. I’m not going to judge it just yet but it wasn’t a blockbuster day except in a few areas like financials and real estate related issues.

Volume was better than average for the day but on the week about the same as we’ve been seeing over the past few months now. Breadth was positive but not a 90/10 day blockbuster day.  

 

 

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Dave’s Daily

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MARKET COMMENT 

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, July 28, 2009

Big Brother (FINRA) has given Wall Street firms the cover to restrict ProShares, Direxion, Rydex and PowerShares products from use by their clients. This is being done under the guise of protecting them but that’s a smokescreen. You see these firms live and die off residual fee income generated by wrapped high fee products within financial plans. It’s very disruptive to fee income for FAs and clients to mess with the plan. It is no longer permitted to use them denying the investor and FA the choice and opportunities they present. Rather than allow your FA to protect you from 40-60% bear market losses they want you to stick with these plans and keep chucking the money to them. Some firms are even going so far as restricting the use of unleveraged short products which is downright silly but shows you the extent firms will go to protect the flow of fee income.

Here’s a typical wire house message sent to the troops purportedly by Morgan Stanley:

Policy Change on Inverse and Leveraged20ETFs
In June FINRA issued a Regulatory Notice indicating that inverse and leveraged ETFs that are reset daily, typically are unsuitable for retail investors who plan to hold them longer than one trading session, particularly in volatile markets… 

 

 
 

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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT 

Courtesy of Dave Fry at ETF Digest, July 27, 2009

dave's daily

Yeah, that’s it—when volumes are as light as this traders just push their “easy button” and markets are propped. Bad news, good news or no news, it makes little difference when you’re in control. So, who’s in control? The usual suspects.

And, speaking of those, the New York Magazine just put out a good and thorough read on Goldman Sachs… 

 

 

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Zero Hedge

Are Stablecoins A Solution For Every Unbanked Business Out There?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Dean Steinbeck via Hackernoon.com,

For most businesses, opening a bank account and getting access to a variety of services is a straightforward task.

But this is not the case for certain businesses that operate on the fringe of what is seen as acceptable by governments and society at large.

The burgeoning cannabis industry is a case in point. The industry is legal in a number of states in America, yet many of these businesses st...



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ValueWalk

Tax Receipts Decline As Budget Deficit Reaches Record

By Gary St. Fleur. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The U.S budget deficit has widened as the corporate and individual tax receipts and other revenue declines in the face of federal spending reaching new heights.

geralt / Pixabay

Last year’s fiscal gap for February was $215.2 billion. It has now grown to $234 billion. This is larger than the last budget deficit record set in 2012. This increase is due to declines in tax receipts for October-February. The period saw a decline of 1 percent (1.3 trillion ) from the prior year while growth in federal spending rose upwards of 9 percent to 1.8 t...



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Phil's Favorites

Holy s*** the yield curve inverted

 

Holy s*** the yield curve inverted

Courtesy of 

Bloomberg:

A closely watched section of the Treasury yield curve on Friday turned negative for the first time since the crisis more than a decade ago, underscoring concern about a possible economic slump and the prospect that the Federal Reserve will have to cut interest rates.

The gap between t...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

NYSE Index Suggesting The Top Is In, Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is a very broad stock index suggesting that a top is in play? What this index does to close this week should go a long way to answering that question!

This chart looks at the NYSE Index on a weekly basis over the past 4-years. Over the past 15-months, it has created a series of lower highs and lower lows inside of the shaded falling channel. It hit strong support around Christmas at (1) and a counter-trend rally started. The rally now has it testing the top of the falling channel at (2).

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- The NYSE index could be cre...



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Insider Scoop

10 Biggest Price Target Changes For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga.

  • Buckingham cut the price target for Trinity Industries Inc (NYSE: TRN) from $32 to $26. Trinity Industries shares closed at $22.96 on Thursday.
  • Canaccord Genuity lowered the price target for Biogen Inc (NASDAQ: BIIB) from $396 to $275. Biogen shares closed at $226.88 on Thursday.
  • H.C. Wainwright cut the price target on Conatus Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ: CNAT) from $8 to $1.50. Conatus Pharmaceuticals shares closed at $2.91 on Thursday.
  • Wedb...


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Chart School

Silver is cheap vs Gold

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Metal investors will be paying attention to how out of favor silver is relative to gold. And it is hard to wonder why with the well forecast boom of electric cars expected over the next 10 years. Who owns all the silver? JM Bullion has a series of charts here. Notice the stock pile held by JPM. They will do will if silver gets to $30 USD an once!

Chart up to April 2017



As of the 20th of March 2019 the US Federal Reserve has switched to dovish...

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Biotech

Marijuana is a lot more than just THC - a pharmacologist looks at the untapped healing compounds

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Marijuana is a lot more than just THC - a pharmacologist looks at the untapped healing compounds

Assorted cannabis bud strains. Roxana Gonzalez/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of James David Adams, University of Southern California

Medical marijuana is legal in 33 states as of November 2018. Yet the federal government still insists marijuana has no legal u...



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Digital Currencies

Facebook's cryptocurrency: a financial expert breaks it down

 

Facebook's cryptocurrency: a financial expert breaks it down

Grejak/Shutterstock

Courtesy of Alistair Milne, Loughborough University

Facebook is reportedly preparing to launch its own version of Bitcoin, for use in its messaging applications, WhatsApp, Messenger and Instagram. Could this “Facecoin” be the long-awaited breakthrough by a global technology giant into the lucrative market for retail financial services? Or will...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

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Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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