Posts Tagged ‘Dave’s Daily Market Comment’

Dave’s Daily

Dave’s Daily MARKET COMMENT

September 18, 2009

A REALLY BORING QUADWITCH

It wasn’t a spectacular day that’s for sure—more like a low scoring extra inning baseball game. But it was quadwitching nonetheless without any runs or hits as in volume. Whatever manipulations and adjustments needed to be made must have been done throughout the current week. What else could it be?  

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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, September 11, 2009

We’re just one of many who will post a remembrance of what happened eight years ago. We’ll never forget it. After living in Hawaii for 35 years we knew many kamaaina’s (locals) who lived through the attack on Pearl Harbor. They had many stories to tell of witnessing the event as it transpired. With TV during 9/11 we were all able to witness the tragedy and the wound will never heal.

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Dave’s Daily

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MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, Sept. 4, 2009

DIP BUYERS PLAY IT AGAIN

If you’re in this business long enough (35 years for the Fryguy), just when you think you’ve seen everything, they play another game on you. This week it was down and dirty early only to yield to some squaring up at week’s end. Squaring up? I use those terms loosely since yesterday’s end of day jam-job was beyond suspicious. Let’s just say those buying the last 15 minutes yesterday had a (cough) hunch what was coming today.

If you think the employment data was good, or had some “kernels of hope” as one headline read, then bully and welcome to the new math and spin 2009 edition. You’d think with this cynical attitude I’d be disappointed, but how can we be when we’re long?

Volume was pathetically low but it’s the Friday before a long weekend so this is expected. Breadth was as positive as you’d expect.  

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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, September 1, 2009

stock market time bomb

You could feel it coming. The other day my image du jour was “running on empty” and that was the ominous warning we were sensing. Most trading systems don’t have a “feel” component and mine doesn’t either. The only logical thing which we’ve commented on repeatedly as have others is light volume and how the news hasn’t jived with reality. And, recently, investors have been selling good news versus buying bad news as before. Today good ISM and housing data failed to impress as the short sellers seized the tape. September’s are supposed to be the cruelest month but it’s never a sure thing.

Today, hedge fund leaders Paul Tudor Jones and others jumped on the short side questioning the validity and viability of the current rally as reported well in this Bloomberg story. They’ve thrown down the gauntlet to Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to prove that the economic recovery and market rally are for real. We’ll see who’s right ultimately but today they had the tape finding a lot of stops to hit. It was definitely their plan and was successfully orchestrated.

Volume increased substantially as stops were deliberately targeted and hit. The signature of this market has been (apart from Fed and options expiration days) heavier volume on down days than on up days which is a negative. Breadth was decidedly negative but not quite a 10/90 down day. 

 
 

 
 

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Dave’s Daily

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MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, August 21, 2009

clap

I had my little rant yesterday regarding the CFTC wrecking crew and there will be more to say—much more—over the next few months. But, today was options expiration…again…and options strike prices were being hunted down like a shark smelling blood.

But, hey, we’re basically long so let’s enjoy it while it lasts. It will last won’t it?

Home sales data was “better than expected” and Bernanke made a semi-bullish speech regarding future economic growth.  

 

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Dave’s Daily

Dave’s Daily Market Comment, August 17, 2009

Our son made me watch this gruesome movie, The 300, but the above line from it reminded me where the S&P 500 is presently (near 975) and a line bulls must defend. But, that’s looking at daily charts whereas longer term weekly and monthly charts may have a more tolerant feel and we’ll look at those further below.

It does seem that an accumulation of overbought conditions; an absence of positive news (or, even bad news to spin as positive); bullish fatigue noted here last week; heavy insider selling; and, more importantly, investors doing some old fashioned reasoning (ya know, bad news is really bad news) finally caught up with markets today.

I did note discomfort with things last week as rallies were feeble and selling seemed more intraday dominant then headlines would lead you to believe.

Volume today was heavier to the downside than previous up days which isn’t a good sign but has been the hallmark of this market for some time now. Breadth was decidedly negative although, as this is being done, it doesn’t appear as a negative 10/90 day.  

 
 

 
 

 
 

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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, August 13, 2009

Today’s action is more impressive than yesterday’s given the stream of “worse than expected” news from retail sales and jobless claims. Those predicting the recession’s end evidently shrugged all this off as old news. The bulls have the momentum. They believe the Fed and powers that be will do anything and everything to reflate asset prices. That should end the discussion right there.

Volume backed off again to the lower levels being recorded previously. Breadth was positive and the rally still lives thanks to financial and material sectors.  

 

 
 

 
 

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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, August 7, 2009

Okay, so the building tension before the unemployment data is relieved by buying on the (I’m really shocked!) “better than expected” unemployment data. This is the kind of response we’ve been conditioned to deal with for a long time. I’m not going to judge it just yet but it wasn’t a blockbuster day except in a few areas like financials and real estate related issues.

Volume was better than average for the day but on the week about the same as we’ve been seeing over the past few months now. Breadth was positive but not a 90/10 day blockbuster day.  

 

 

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Dave’s Daily

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MARKET COMMENT 

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, July 28, 2009

Big Brother (FINRA) has given Wall Street firms the cover to restrict ProShares, Direxion, Rydex and PowerShares products from use by their clients. This is being done under the guise of protecting them but that’s a smokescreen. You see these firms live and die off residual fee income generated by wrapped high fee products within financial plans. It’s very disruptive to fee income for FAs and clients to mess with the plan. It is no longer permitted to use them denying the investor and FA the choice and opportunities they present. Rather than allow your FA to protect you from 40-60% bear market losses they want you to stick with these plans and keep chucking the money to them. Some firms are even going so far as restricting the use of unleveraged short products which is downright silly but shows you the extent firms will go to protect the flow of fee income.

Here’s a typical wire house message sent to the troops purportedly by Morgan Stanley:

Policy Change on Inverse and Leveraged20ETFs
In June FINRA issued a Regulatory Notice indicating that inverse and leveraged ETFs that are reset daily, typically are unsuitable for retail investors who plan to hold them longer than one trading session, particularly in volatile markets… 

 

 
 

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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT 

Courtesy of Dave Fry at ETF Digest, July 27, 2009

dave's daily

Yeah, that’s it—when volumes are as light as this traders just push their “easy button” and markets are propped. Bad news, good news or no news, it makes little difference when you’re in control. So, who’s in control? The usual suspects.

And, speaking of those, the New York Magazine just put out a good and thorough read on Goldman Sachs… 

 

 

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Phil's Favorites

More than 1,000 cryptocurrencies have already failed - here's what will affect successes in future

 

More than 1,000 cryptocurrencies have already failed – here's what will affect successes in future

Gaining currency? Wit Olszewski

Courtesy of Gavin Brown, Manchester Metropolitan University and Richard Whittle, Manchester Metropolitan University

Many cryptocurrencies have been launched in the past few yea...



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Digital Currencies

More than 1,000 cryptocurrencies have already failed - here's what will affect successes in future

 

More than 1,000 cryptocurrencies have already failed – here's what will affect successes in future

Gaining currency? Wit Olszewski

Courtesy of Gavin Brown, Manchester Metropolitan University and Richard Whittle, Manchester Metropolitan University

Many cryptocurrencies have been launched in the past few yea...



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Zero Hedge

WeWork Bonds Crash To Record Lows After Slashing 17% Of Workforce, Expansion On Hold

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

The WeWork implosion continues to unfold spectacularly. The company, slated 1.5 months ago as a top Wall Street IPO candidate at a valuation of more than $40 billion, has seen its valuation collapse to $8 to $10 billion range and has had SoftBank bailout it out from near bankruptcy. 

As the struggling office-sharing company slashes jobs, closes locations, and restructures to avoid eventual bankruptcy, its "cost-cutting" measures are kicking into overdrive as another 2,400 employees globally have been laid off, reported ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Junk Bonds About To Send Stocks A Bearish Message?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Are junk bonds about to send stocks an important message? It looks like it from this chart!

Junk Bond ETF (JNK) has created a series of lower highs and lower lows over the past couple of years, inside of falling channel (1). When it broke support in early 2018 at (2), stocks struggled to make much upward progress for the next few months.

The rally off support last year saw JNK hit falling resistance a few months ago and some softness has set in. The small decline of late has it testing a series of higher lows at (3).

What JNK does at (3), looks to sen...



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Insider Scoop

PayPal Will Buy Honey Science For $4B

Courtesy of Benzinga

PayPal Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: PYPL) is acquiring Honey Science Corp for $4 billion.

Honey Science Corp was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in Los Angeles. Honey helps people automatically find online coupons and discounts while ...



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Lee's Free Thinking

NY Department of Welfare Announces Increased Subsidies for Primary Dealers, Thank God!

 

NY Department of Welfare Announces Increased Subsidies for Primary Dealers, Thank God!

Courtesy of , Wall Street Examiner

Here’s today’s press release (11/14/19) from the NY Fed verbatim. They’ve announced that they will be making special holiday welfare payments to the Primary Dealers this Christmas season. I have highlighted the relevant text.

The Open Market Trading Desk (the Desk) at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has released the schedule of repurchase agreement (repo)...



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The Technical Traders

VIX Warns Of Imminent Market Correction

Courtesy of Technical Traders

The VIX is warning that a market peak may be setting up in the global markets and that investors should be cautious of the extremely low price in the VIX. These extremely low prices in the VIX are typically followed by some type of increased volatility in the markets.

The US Federal Reserve continues to push an easy money policy and has recently begun acquiring more dept allowing a deeper move towards a Quantitative Easing stance. This move, along with investor confidence in the US markets, has prompted early warning signs that the market has reached near extreme levels/peaks. 

Vix Value Drops Before Monthly Expiration

When the VIX falls to levels below 12~13, this typically v...



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Biotech

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

A vial of insulin. Prices for the drug, crucial for those with diabetes, have soared in recent years. Oleksandr Nagaiets/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Vanderbilt University

About 7.4 million people ...



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Chart School

Dow Jones cycle update and are we there yet?

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Today the Dow and the SP500 are making new all time highs. However all long and strong bull markets end on a new all time high. Today no one knows how many new all time highs are to go, maybe 1 or 100+ more to go, who knows! So are we there yet?

readtheticker.com combine market tools from Richard Wyckoff, Jim Hurst and William Gann to understand and forecast price action. In concept terms (in order), demand and supply, market cycles, and time to price analysis. 

Cycle are excellent to understand the wider picture, after all markets do not move in a straight line and bear markets do follow bull markets. 



CHART 1: The Dow Jones Industrial average with the 900 period cycle.

A) Red Cycle:...

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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