Posts Tagged ‘Dave’s Daily Market Comment’

Dave’s Daily

Dave’s Daily MARKET COMMENT

September 18, 2009

A REALLY BORING QUADWITCH

It wasn’t a spectacular day that’s for sure—more like a low scoring extra inning baseball game. But it was quadwitching nonetheless without any runs or hits as in volume. Whatever manipulations and adjustments needed to be made must have been done throughout the current week. What else could it be?  

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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, September 11, 2009

We’re just one of many who will post a remembrance of what happened eight years ago. We’ll never forget it. After living in Hawaii for 35 years we knew many kamaaina’s (locals) who lived through the attack on Pearl Harbor. They had many stories to tell of witnessing the event as it transpired. With TV during 9/11 we were all able to witness the tragedy and the wound will never heal.

Entire article here.>>

 

 


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Dave’s Daily

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MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, Sept. 4, 2009

DIP BUYERS PLAY IT AGAIN

If you’re in this business long enough (35 years for the Fryguy), just when you think you’ve seen everything, they play another game on you. This week it was down and dirty early only to yield to some squaring up at week’s end. Squaring up? I use those terms loosely since yesterday’s end of day jam-job was beyond suspicious. Let’s just say those buying the last 15 minutes yesterday had a (cough) hunch what was coming today.

If you think the employment data was good, or had some “kernels of hope” as one headline read, then bully and welcome to the new math and spin 2009 edition. You’d think with this cynical attitude I’d be disappointed, but how can we be when we’re long?

Volume was pathetically low but it’s the Friday before a long weekend so this is expected. Breadth was as positive as you’d expect.  

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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, September 1, 2009

stock market time bomb

You could feel it coming. The other day my image du jour was “running on empty” and that was the ominous warning we were sensing. Most trading systems don’t have a “feel” component and mine doesn’t either. The only logical thing which we’ve commented on repeatedly as have others is light volume and how the news hasn’t jived with reality. And, recently, investors have been selling good news versus buying bad news as before. Today good ISM and housing data failed to impress as the short sellers seized the tape. September’s are supposed to be the cruelest month but it’s never a sure thing.

Today, hedge fund leaders Paul Tudor Jones and others jumped on the short side questioning the validity and viability of the current rally as reported well in this Bloomberg story. They’ve thrown down the gauntlet to Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to prove that the economic recovery and market rally are for real. We’ll see who’s right ultimately but today they had the tape finding a lot of stops to hit. It was definitely their plan and was successfully orchestrated.

Volume increased substantially as stops were deliberately targeted and hit. The signature of this market has been (apart from Fed and options expiration days) heavier volume on down days than on up days which is a negative. Breadth was decidedly negative but not quite a 10/90 down day. 

 
 

 
 

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Dave’s Daily

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MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, August 21, 2009

clap

I had my little rant yesterday regarding the CFTC wrecking crew and there will be more to say—much more—over the next few months. But, today was options expiration…again…and options strike prices were being hunted down like a shark smelling blood.

But, hey, we’re basically long so let’s enjoy it while it lasts. It will last won’t it?

Home sales data was “better than expected” and Bernanke made a semi-bullish speech regarding future economic growth.  

 

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Dave’s Daily

Dave’s Daily Market Comment, August 17, 2009

Our son made me watch this gruesome movie, The 300, but the above line from it reminded me where the S&P 500 is presently (near 975) and a line bulls must defend. But, that’s looking at daily charts whereas longer term weekly and monthly charts may have a more tolerant feel and we’ll look at those further below.

It does seem that an accumulation of overbought conditions; an absence of positive news (or, even bad news to spin as positive); bullish fatigue noted here last week; heavy insider selling; and, more importantly, investors doing some old fashioned reasoning (ya know, bad news is really bad news) finally caught up with markets today.

I did note discomfort with things last week as rallies were feeble and selling seemed more intraday dominant then headlines would lead you to believe.

Volume today was heavier to the downside than previous up days which isn’t a good sign but has been the hallmark of this market for some time now. Breadth was decidedly negative although, as this is being done, it doesn’t appear as a negative 10/90 day.  

 
 

 
 

 
 

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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, August 13, 2009

Today’s action is more impressive than yesterday’s given the stream of “worse than expected” news from retail sales and jobless claims. Those predicting the recession’s end evidently shrugged all this off as old news. The bulls have the momentum. They believe the Fed and powers that be will do anything and everything to reflate asset prices. That should end the discussion right there.

Volume backed off again to the lower levels being recorded previously. Breadth was positive and the rally still lives thanks to financial and material sectors.  

 

 
 

 
 

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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, August 7, 2009

Okay, so the building tension before the unemployment data is relieved by buying on the (I’m really shocked!) “better than expected” unemployment data. This is the kind of response we’ve been conditioned to deal with for a long time. I’m not going to judge it just yet but it wasn’t a blockbuster day except in a few areas like financials and real estate related issues.

Volume was better than average for the day but on the week about the same as we’ve been seeing over the past few months now. Breadth was positive but not a 90/10 day blockbuster day.  

 

 

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Dave’s Daily

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MARKET COMMENT 

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, July 28, 2009

Big Brother (FINRA) has given Wall Street firms the cover to restrict ProShares, Direxion, Rydex and PowerShares products from use by their clients. This is being done under the guise of protecting them but that’s a smokescreen. You see these firms live and die off residual fee income generated by wrapped high fee products within financial plans. It’s very disruptive to fee income for FAs and clients to mess with the plan. It is no longer permitted to use them denying the investor and FA the choice and opportunities they present. Rather than allow your FA to protect you from 40-60% bear market losses they want you to stick with these plans and keep chucking the money to them. Some firms are even going so far as restricting the use of unleveraged short products which is downright silly but shows you the extent firms will go to protect the flow of fee income.

Here’s a typical wire house message sent to the troops purportedly by Morgan Stanley:

Policy Change on Inverse and Leveraged20ETFs
In June FINRA issued a Regulatory Notice indicating that inverse and leveraged ETFs that are reset daily, typically are unsuitable for retail investors who plan to hold them longer than one trading session, particularly in volatile markets… 

 

 
 

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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT 

Courtesy of Dave Fry at ETF Digest, July 27, 2009

dave's daily

Yeah, that’s it—when volumes are as light as this traders just push their “easy button” and markets are propped. Bad news, good news or no news, it makes little difference when you’re in control. So, who’s in control? The usual suspects.

And, speaking of those, the New York Magazine just put out a good and thorough read on Goldman Sachs… 

 

 

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Phil's Favorites

The Second Great Depression... But Not Really

 

The Second Great Depression… But Not Really

By John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline 

"It's a recession when your neighbor loses his job;
it's a depression when you lose yours."

—Harry S. Truman, 33rd US President

In recent weeks, numerous commentators started to suggest the US and the world are entering a depression.

For some areas of the economy, that is clearly true. But not every area.

Today we will explore what some smart minds are saying about the current economic environment. I'll also aim to help you navigate through its complexity.

Here's one t...



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Zero Hedge

American Airlines Slated To Drop Dozens Of Flights To Smaller Cities As Government Aid Dries Up

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

With the government set to stop subsidizing the industry, airlines are gasp> actually going to have to make operational changes to effectively deal with the lack of demand. Oh, the horror of free market forces actually forcing companies to make business changes!

This starts with American Airlines, who is reportedly preparing to drop two dozen small and medium city flights as federal coronavirus aid is set to end. The aid had previously mandated that airlines were not allowed to cut service ...



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ValueWalk

Coronavirus stimulus checks talks fall apart as Congress goes on vacation

By Michelle Jones. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Our predictions regarding the coronavirus stimulus checks and related relief appears to be correct. Congress has abdicated its duty and gone on vacation while Americans await unemployment and other related stimulus programs. While the action is hard to fathom, there is a good chance the market will crash or other pressure will bring the sides together sooner than the current schedule of September 8th.

Prior coverage

The two sides continue to drift apart on the bill over Coronavirus stimulus checks and relief legislation. From a game theory perspective, I believe the Democrats are in the driver’s seat. If the bill is not passed, the economy will crash further and lead to certain electoral losses for Trump and the GOP. Therefore, the Democrats have little incentive to push for a speedy passage of the bill.

...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Rapid screening tests that prioritize speed over accuracy could be key to ending the coronavirus pandemic

 

Rapid screening tests that prioritize speed over accuracy could be key to ending the coronavirus pandemic

Broad and frequent screening could catch coronavirus cases before they can spread to others. Vaidas Bucys/EyeEm via Getty Images

Courtesy of Zoë McLaren, University of Maryland, Baltimore County

Broad access to testing is one of the most powerful tools to keep the COVID-19 pande...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver Could Be Creating Large Reversal Pattern, Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Could Silver prices from 30-years ago be influencing price action this month? Joe Friday suggests it is possible.

This chart looks at Silver Futures on a monthly basis over the past 40-years. Fibonacci levels were applied to the 1980 highs ($50) and 1991 lows ($.350) in Silver.

The 50% retracement levels of the 1980 high/1991 low came into play as support for a few months at each (1). Once this support broke, Silver fell another 50%.

The impressive rally over the past 8-weeks has Silver testing the 50% retracement level as potential...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Chart School

Silver Big Channel

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Big channels are the sand pit of price action. Lets review some big trends of these past months.


GLD
- Moving higher to upper solid red line channel


Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.






XAU
- Ready to pause, or simply explode.



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SILVER
- Ready to pause, or simply explode.


Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image i...



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Digital Currencies

Raoul Pal: "It May Not Be Worth Owning Any Asset Other Than Bitcoin"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Turner Wright via CoinTelegraph.com,

Raoul Pal, CEO and founder of Real Vision, says Bitcoin may soon become his only asset for long-term investments.

image courtesy of CoinTelegraph ...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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