Posts Tagged ‘death cross’

Recession 2010?

Recession 2010?

Courtesy of Michael Snyder at The Economic Collapse

If you watch any mainstream news program these days, it is almost a certainty that someone will mention the word "recession" before a half hour passes.  In fact, it seems like almost everyone is either predicting that we are going into a recession, or they are warning of the need to avoid a recession or they are proclaiming that we are still in a recession.  So will the U.S. economy once again be in recession in 2010?  When you consider all the signs that are pointing that way, the evidence is compelling.  The truth is that there is bad economic news wherever you turn.  There is bad news in the housing industry.  There is bad news in the financial markets.  There is bad news in the banking system.  There is bad news coming out of Europe.  There are even signs that the bubble in China may be about to burst.  Plus, the economic impact of the Gulf of Mexico oil spill could end up being the straw (or the gigantic concrete slab) that really breaks the camel’s back.  So there are certainly a lot of pieces of news that "gloom and doom" economists can hang their hats on these days.  There is a very dark mood in world financial markets right now, and it seems like almost everyone is waiting for the other shoe to drop.  But does all of this really mean that we are looking at the start of another recession before the end of 2010?   

The truth is that nobody really knows.  Things certainly look very ominous out there.  The dark clouds are gathering and the economic winds are starting to blow in a bad direction.  The following are 24 pieces of evidence that do seem to indicate that very difficult economic times are imminent….

-U.S. Treasury yields have dropped to stunning new lows.  So why are they so low?  Well, it is because so many investors are anticipating that we are headed into a deflationary period.  In fact, many economists are warning that the fact that Treasury yields are so low is
continue reading


Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , ,




IS THE “DEATH CROSS” A USEFUL INDICATOR?

IS THE “DEATH CROSS” A USEFUL INDICATOR?

Skull

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

At the March highs we were talking about death crosses.  No, not death crosses in the S&P, but the death cross in the one equity index that has proven to be even remotely leading over the course of the last 5 years – China. Today, everyone and their mother is chattering about the death cross in the S&P 500.  Is it of any use?  Jeff Kleintop at LPL says it’s nonsense:

“While much is made of the “death cross” of the S&P 500 50-day moving average falling below the 200-day, it has actually been a buying signal during these periods in the past. A good example of this took place in 2004 when during the soft spot in the recovery the 50-day crossed below the 200-day on August 17, 2004, just as the S&P 500 had completed the low point of its soft spot pullback and embarked upon a double-digit percent gain over the next three months.”

Pierre Lapointe, a macro strategist at Brockhouse Cooper agrees:

“The death cross IS nonsense. They’re no better than a flip of a coin to predict future returns. Check out these odds: Since 1970, only 10 of the 21 occurrences actually resulted in a market pullback a month after the death cross. Three months later, the market was down only 43% of the time. With odds like this, don’t short the market. Go to a casino — you’ll have more fun.”

The S&P 500 and the U.S. equity market has not proven to be a leading indicator of much in recent years.  Many even question its discounting capabilities at all.  The moral of this story?  Don’t wait until after a 15% decline in equities to jump on some technical analysis bandwagon.  Especially one from an index that has proven to be a leading indicator of just about nothing. 


Tags: , , ,




The Death Cross: Another Sign That We Are On The Verge Of A Recession?

The Death Cross: Another Sign That We Are On The Verge Of A Recession?

Courtesy of The Economic Collapse Blog 

The Standard & Poor’s 500 50-day moving average stands poised to cross beneath the 200-day moving average.  To those in the financial industry, this is known as a "death cross", and it is a very powerful indicator that we could be entering a bearish period.  So is this yet another sign that we are on the verge of a recession?  Well, anyone who has spent much time trying to interpret financial charts will tell you how inexact that science can be.  Financial markets can be wildly unpredictable, and there is always a tremendous amount of manipulation going on behind the scenes.  However, when you add this impending death cross with all of the other signs that we could be entering a recession, there certainly seems to be reason for alarm.  The truth is that financial markets across the globe are full of fear and panic right now.  In fact, as noted in another article, the dominant force in world financial markets in 2010 is fear.  When fear rules, markets become very volatile and they can fall very quickly.  Anyone who has spent much time trying to squeeze profits out of world financial markets knows that they tend to fall much faster than they ever rise.  So are we now approaching one of those times of panic when financial markets across the world fall at breathtaking speed?

Well, the truth is that nobody knows.  Anyone who says that they can predict these things with 100 percent certainty is either a liar or they are unbelievably rich. 

But certainly the mood in the financial markets is grim.  If a death cross does happen on the S&P it is going to make things even more tense.        

For those not familiar with investing terminology, Investopedia defines a "death cross" this way….

A crossover resulting from a security’s long-term moving average breaking above its short-term moving average or support level.

In this case, the death cross would be happening on the S&P 500, which is a weighted index of the prices of 500 large-cap common stocks actively traded in the United States.  The S&P 500 is one of the most commonly used benchmarks for the overall U.S. stock market.

So how soon could we see a death cross on the S&P 500?

Well, some analysts believe that it could happen almost…
continue reading


Tags: , , , ,




AN INVERTED DEATH CROSS IN INVESTMENT GRADE CREDIT

AN INVERTED DEATH CROSS IN INVESTMENT GRADE CREDIT

Skull

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

As we’ve previously described the primary differentiating factor between this sell-off and every sell-off since March 2009 has been the action in the credit markets.  For the first time in over year we are seeing substantial deterioration across credit markets.  This has been notable in IG credit.  Spreads have started blowing out again as the sovereign debt fears raise memories of Lehman Brothers.

The action in yesterday’s market was notable due to the strong technical movement we saw in spreads.  The 50 day moving average moving upward crossed the 200 day moving average moving downward.  In a typical market this would be known as a “golden cross”, but as widening spreads are a negative indicator this is actually an inverse “death cross”.  It sounds very phony as most technical analysis chart patterns do, but this is one that is worth noting.  The crossing of the moving averages is a very rare event and generally indicates the beginning of a very strong directional trend.  We have noted similar patterns in several markets over the last few years including the golden cross in the S&P 500 in June 2009 at S&P 900 and the death cross in Chinese equities just prior to their  recent 20% decline.

From a purely simplistic technical perspective IG credit’s death cross is forecasting more difficult days ahead in the credit markets and that is certain to coincide with more difficulty in the equity markets.  Investors would be wise to take note.

IG AN INVERTED DEATH CROSS IN INVESTMENT GRADE CREDIT

(Chart Courtesy of CDR)

Source: Tim Backshall at CDR 


Tags: , , ,




 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Developer Pivots Luxury Brooklyn High-Rise Condo To Rentals 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

A high-end condominium glut in Brooklyn forced one developer to reconstruct its entire business model from condos to rentals for one of its new luxury highrises. 

Avery Hall Investments announced Monday the commencement of leasing at One Boerum Place located at Brooklyn Heights and Boerum Hill. Bloomberg notes ...



more from Tyler

Phil's Favorites

After Mega Banks Supervised by the Fed Lose Over $10 Billion to a Highly Leveraged Hedge Fund, Fed Puts Lipstick on a Pig in its Financial Stability Report

Courtesy of Pam Martens

Remember the phrase “putting lipstick on a pig.” It became popular after the dot.com bust when it was learned that the big Wall Street banks had glowingly recommended “hot” new issues of stocks to their customers while secretly calling them “crap” and “dogs” in internal emails.

Putting lipstick on a pig is what the Federal Reserve is attempting to do in the Financial Stability Report it rel...



more from Ilene

Digital Currencies

NFTs are much bigger than an art fad - here's how they could change the world

 

NFTs are much bigger than an art fad – here's how they could change the world

Homes fit for zeroes (and ones). Julien Tromeur

Courtesy of James Bowden, University of Strathclyde and Edward Thomas Jones, Bangor University

Sotheby’s has become the latest establishment name in art to dive into NFTs (non-fungible tokens) through its collaboration with anonymous ...



more from Bitcoin

Biotech/COVID-19

India COVID crisis: four reasons it will derail the world economy

 

India COVID crisis: four reasons it will derail the world economy

India is the fifth largest economy in the world. Deepak Choudhary/Unsplash

Courtesy of Uma S Kambhampati, University of Reading

The second wave of the pandemic has struck India with a devastating impact. With over 300,000 new cases and 3,000 deaths across the country each day at present, the total number of deaths has just passed the 200,000 mark – that’s about one in 16 of all COVID deaths across the world....



more from Biotech/COVID-19

Chart School

Yellen can not stop the dollar decline

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Printing money results in a lower currency, so long as the currency does not fall too fast.

Previous Post: US Dollar Forecast - Weakness

Here are the very strong fundamentals for a lower US dollar: 

(a) US inflation exploding.
(b) Massive US twin deficits.
(c) Better conditions in Europe.

However French election worries in 2022 Q1 and Q2 may provide US dollar strength (via European weakness) after Christmas, but this strength may come after a low in the DXY near $84.  

It looks like Yellen knows a down swing in the US dollar is near because ...

more from Chart School

Politics

If China's middle class continues to thrive and grow, what will it mean for the rest of the world?

 

If China's middle class continues to thrive and grow, what will it mean for the rest of the world?

Over the past few decades, hundreds of millions of Chinese citizens have become part of the middle class. AP Photo/Ng Han Guan

Courtesy of Amitrajeet A. Batabyal, Rochester Institute of Technology

China’s large and impressive accomplishments over the past four decades have spurred scholars and politicians to debate whether the decline of the West – including the ...



more from Politics

ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



more from ValueWalk

Kimble Charting Solutions

Will Historic Selloff In Treasury Bonds Turn Into Opportunity?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Long-dated treasury bonds have been crushed over the past year, sending ETFs like TLT (20+ Year US Treasury Bond ETF) spiraling over 20%.

Improving economy? Inflation concerns? Perhaps a combination of both… interest rates have risen sharply and thus bond prices have fallen in historic fashion.

Today’s chart looks at $TLT over the past 20 years. As you can see, the recent decline has truly been historic. $TLT’s price has swung from historically overbought highs to oversold lows.

At present, the long-dated bond ETF ($TLT) is trading 7.8% below its 200-...



more from Kimble C.S.

Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



more from M.T.M.

Promotions

Phil's Stock World's Weekly Webinar - March 10, 2021

Don't miss our latest weekly webinar! 

Join us at PSW for LIVE Webinars every Wednesday afternoon at 1:00 PM EST.

Phil's Stock World's Weekly Webinar – March 10, 2021

 

Major Topics:

00:00:01 - EIA Petroleum Status Report
00:04:42 - Crude Oil WTI
00:12:52 - COVID-19 Update
00:22:08 - Bonds and Borrowed Funds | S&P 500
00:45:28 - COVID-19 Vaccination
00:48:32 - Trading Techniques
00:50:34 - PBR
00:50:43 - LYG
00:50:48 - More Trading Techniques
00:52:59 - Chinese Hacks Microsoft's E...



more from Promotions

The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



more from Tech. Traders

Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



more from Lee

Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.