Posts Tagged ‘debt cycle’

Business Cycle, Debt Cycle… And Now Printing Cycle

Nic Lenoir of ICAP discusses his thoughts on the market at Zero Hedge. – Ilene

Business Cycle, Debt Cycle… And Now Printing Cycle

Courtesy of Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge

Submitted by Nic Lenoir of ICAP

Today’s PMI data was very strong. There are experts in econometrics much more knowledgeable than I will ever be calling for further strength in production numbers that will lead to a turn in unemployment into Q1 2010. I don’t dispute their models or the indicators they look at. However I can’t come to terms with it. I think this is in great part because the business cycle which is supposed to lead us out of this recession is at odds with a much longer and bigger cycle: the debt cycle. I know this flies in the face of 50 years of econometrics that has made people a lot of money trading, but this is mainly due to the fact that the debt cycle is so long and stretched over time that we don’t really have data to measure its impact on previous cycles. It coincides in a sense with the Kondratieff cycle, but transposed into today’s financial markets, the burst of the debt bubble is a lot more pronounced. Basically modern technology and financial engineering has made it very easy to securitize credit and source funding or financing globally, so that the extent of the debt bubble has been allowed to grow far beyond what could have happened 50 years ago. There is also obviously the global aspect of it. Because financial markets are more and more global, so is the crisis.

Albert Edwards had a great piece the other day discussing the renewed importance in a post-bubble environment of the business cycle. This line of thought has also been outlined by the Global Macro Investor in the past. It relies a lot on the example given by Japan, or the 70s. One could argue that unlike the case of Japan which benefitted of the strong economy of the 90s to have a more robust business cycle due to exports, our current global economy will lack an engine to drive the cycle. The risk is that the consumer has retrenched enough in the US and in Europe that the business cycles becomes a restocking of shelves carrying products there is not necessarily much demand for. I…
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Phil's Favorites

Momentum Monday - The Simulation Is Making Me Nervous

 

Momentum Monday – The Simulation Is Making Me Nervous

Courtesy of Howard Lindzon 

Happy Monday.

As always, Ivanhoff and I do our weekly video and you can watch/listen right here.

Ivanhoff has a great synopsis of the market action and themes defining the price action in the US Markets:

1. Asset inflation and the U.S. Dollar. It is simple, if the U.S. Dollar continues to lose ground, people will attempt to protect of purchasing power of their capital and the pri...



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Biotech/COVID-19

How to use ventilation and air filtration to prevent the spread of coronavirus indoors

 

How to use ventilation and air filtration to prevent the spread of coronavirus indoors

Open windows are the simplest way to increase air flow in a room. Justin Paget / Digital Vision via Getty Images

Courtesy of Shelly Miller, University of Colorado Boulder

The vast majority of SARS-CoV-2 transmission occurs indoors, most of it from the inhalation of airborne particles that contain the coronavirus. The best way to prev...



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Zero Hedge

Silver Soars Amid Momo Meltdown, Apple Almost As Big As Entire Russell 2000

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

The last two days have seen the biggest plunge in momentum since the early June quant-quake...

Source: Bloomberg

As the reflation trade inflects as money supply falls for two straight weeks...

Source: Bloomberg

...and momentum vs value flips...

...



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ValueWalk

For Rioters - Life In Prison Or Civil Law Suits

By JOHN F. BANZHAF. Originally published at ValueWalk.

For Rioters – Life in Prison or Civil Law Suits, Happy Medium Between Tiny Fines and Lengthy Prison Sentences

Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Rioters Are Facing Life Sentences

WASHINGTON, D.C. (August 10, 2020) -  Some rioters are facing life sentences in Salt Lake City, and other rioters are facing felony charges in additional cities including Louisville, Eugene, Grand Rapids, Austin, Richmond, and elsewhere.

While some may say that it's about time, since misdemeanor arrests and tiny fines haven't deterred rioters from burning do...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Commodities Rally Runs Into Big Breakout Test

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

After a 9 year tail-spin, Commodities are starting to show life in 2020.

Precious metals have been very strong, and commodity bulls are hoping the grains (and energy) follow suit.

In today’s chart, we look at a long-term “monthly” view of the Thomson Reuters Equal Weight Commodity Index.

As you can see, the index has been in a rising channel marked by each (1) for the past 50 years. The 9-year downtrend came near channel support while retesting the 2009 lows at (2).

The rally in 2020 has commodity bulls feeling good again. The Commodity Index is now testing the 9...



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The Technical Traders

Melt-Up Continues While Metals Warn of Risks

Courtesy of Technical Traders

What a week for Metals and the markets, folks. The Transportation Index is up nearly 4% for the week.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up over 3% for the week.  Silver is up over 14% and reached a peak near $30 (over 23%).  Gold is up over 2.5% and trading above $2025 right now – with a peak price level near $2090.  If you were not paying attention this week, there were some really big moves taking place.

MELT-UP WITH HIGH RISKS – PAY ATTENTION

Overall, our research team believes the current “melt-up” price action is likely to continue as global investors continue to believe the US Fed will do everything possible to save the...



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Digital Currencies

Raoul Pal: "It May Not Be Worth Owning Any Asset Other Than Bitcoin"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Turner Wright via CoinTelegraph.com,

Raoul Pal, CEO and founder of Real Vision, says Bitcoin may soon become his only asset for long-term investments.

image courtesy of CoinTelegraph ...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Sunday, 29 March 2020, 07:00:37 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: Silver Shorts Are In a Bind | Ted Butler youtu.be/qQc0AoJp-Q8



Date Found: Monday, 30 March 2020, 05:21:45 PM

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Comment: 5 Questions From You for Luke Gromen youtu.be/nVZD_fuxbQE


...

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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

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Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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