Posts Tagged ‘Disaster Hedges’

Terrible Tuesday – Duck this Fip!

Now THIS is a panic!

Ordinarily, I would be very enthusiastic about buying but we were in an overbought market so we need to be very selective about what we buy.  Once again we had a lot of discussion of the Global situation in Member chat and a special 12:21am Alert went out to Members and there was a follow-up at 6:52 this morning and, frankly, we don’t really have better information at 7am than we did at midnight, which seems kind of crazy with all these 24-hour news channels and the web and all.  Instead of getting the facts instantly, it seems what we get is information overload where it’s almost impossible to separate facts from rumors.

I want to thank both Zeroxzero and Pentaxon for their excellent analysis of the nuclear situation in Japan yesterday – without their now-obviously accurate observations, we would have probably gone more bullish.  We did do some dip buying but generally with well-hedged positions except for the $25KP, where we did take a risk on FAS that will bite us in the ass.  

Once again, I apologize that it’s my job to get analytical when talking about a massive human tragedy but we need to step back and assess the situation.  I have been suggesting that people, in the very least, text REDCROSS to 90999 on your cell phones to donate $10 to help with the relief efforts in Japan – 250,000 people read me each morning and that’s $2.5M and if you pass this along to 10 friends and so on and so on we can really have some impact so please, Please, PLEASE – when you are about to buy something today – think of something you can do without and instead send $10 so a child in Japan can get fresh water to drink and a blanket to sleep on.  Thanks!  

What an interesting day for a Fed statement (2:15)!  We also have the normal Tuesday Retail Sales Reports, the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, Import/Export Prices, TIC Flows and the NAHB Housing Market Index – all important stuff but all overshadowed by events in Japan.  So, what is REAL over there?  In the morning alerts we discussed the status of the disaster and we have Members who are clearly better than I am at discerning the facts so we’ll deal with that
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Technically Troubling Tuesday

We finally blew our levels!

Sadly, it’s time to flip bearish until we can retake our watch levels at Dow 10,200, S&P 1,070, Nas 2,200, NYSE 6,800, and Russell 635.  If we can’t retake at least 2 of them today, we may be seeing 2.5% drops back to Dow 9,945, S&P 1,043, Nas 2,145, NYSE 6,630 and Russell 619.  Since the Russell already blew 619 we have to consider the possiblitlity of even a test of our 5% lines at Dow 9,690, S&P 1,016, Nas 2,090, NYSE 6,460, and Russell 603.

Fundamentals are great but once panic sets in the market is all about technicals and we just need to strap in and go along for the ride.  We have been playing for a bounce off our 10,200, 1,070 lines but, now that we lost it – it’s time to flip bearish – I was wrong and that’s that, time to move on and make some downside money.  Of course it will take more than a single day to give us a trend but the same way we don’t get very bearish until we loser 3 of 5 of our center levels, we don’t get bullish again until we break back over.  Yesterday I sent out an Alert to Members as we broke down, saying:  "We could very easily drop 250 from here on the Dow (2.5%)."

We added a fresh DXD hedge but we already had a proper hedge from Friday when the morning trade idea was:

A better way to hedge at the moment is the DXD Sept $27s for $1.70.  They have a delta of .62 but can be transferred into a vertical if the Dow goes up by selling the $25 puts (now .20) for .50 and covering with the $29s (now $1) for at least .70, leaving you in a $2 spread for .50.   That would be the ESCAPE, at the moment I like the plain DXD $27s at $1.70 until we get a real move back up.

That was an addition to the Morning Alert Trade, which was the DIA Sept $99 puts at $1.50.  Neither the DXD or the DIA plays have been paying off so far but they did provide cover for our speculative bullish plays as we tried to play the line.  Of course we take our major disaster hedges when the market is high (it’s cheaper then),
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Phil's Favorites

Directors are in the crosshairs of corporate climate litigation

 

Directors are in the crosshairs of corporate climate litigation

Melting glaciers threaten the village of Huaraz, Peru. Uwebart/Wikimedia, CC BY-SA

Courtesy of Lisa Benjamin, Dalhousie University

The directors of RWE, a German energy company, had probably never heard of the small village of Huaraz, Peru before 2015. But Saúl Lliuya, a mountain guide and farmer there, sued RWE for climate-related harms that year.

Lliuya&rs...



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Zero Hedge

Manufacturing Employment Expectations Crash Despite Empire Fed Survey Rebound

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

After June's plunge in regional Fed business surveys, July's Empire Fed headline printed a better-than-expected +4.3 (exp +2.0) from -8.6 in June.

However, despite the pickup in the main index, details of the report show that the industry continues to struggle.

A gauge of current orders crept up, though more of the state’s factories said bookings were lower in July than higher.

And, both current and future expectations for employment tumbled, with th...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver/Gold Ratio Making A Bullish Reversal?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Silver (NYSEARCA: SLV) is an important cog in the precious metals world. Not only is it a core precious metal but it is often a leading indicator for metals bulls.

Silver is a good risk-on / risk-off indicator. When it is out-performing Gold, it is risk-on. When it is under-performing, it is risk-off. It’s been the latter for the better part of the past 8 years.

And when the trend remains down, which historically means that metals rallies will be sold.

The Silve...



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Insider Scoop

Earnings Scheduled For July 15, 2019

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Companies Reporting Before The Bell
  • Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) is estimated to report quarterly earnings at $1.81 per share on revenue of $18.49 billion.
  • ShiftPixy, Inc. (NASDAQ: PIXY) is projected to report quarterly loss at $0.08 per share on revenue of $14.39 million.
  • Eros International Plc (NYSE: ...


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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Breaks Back Below $10k, Crypto-Crash Accelerates As Asia Opens

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Update 2010ET: Having briefly stabilized after this morning's weakness, cryptos are tumbling once again as Asian markets open.

Bitcoin has broken below $10,000 again...

*  *  *

While all eyes are on Bitcoin as it slides back towards $10,000, the real mover in the last 12 hours has been Ethereum after...



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Biotech

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing - but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

Reminder: We're is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing – but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

A telomere age test kit from Telomere Diagnostics Inc. and saliva. collection kit from 23andMe. Anna Hoychuk/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Patricia Opresko, University of Pittsburgh and Elise Fouquerel, ...



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ValueWalk

Professor Shubha Ghosh On The Current State Of Gene Editing

 

Professor Shubha Ghosh On The Current State Of Gene Editing

Courtesy of Jacob Wolinsky, ValueWalk

ValueWalk’s Q&A session with Professor Shubha Ghosh, a professor of law and the director of the Syracuse Intellectual Property Law Institute. In this interview, Professor Ghosh discusses his background, the Human Genome Project, the current state of gene editing, 3D printing for organ operations, and gene editing regulation.

...

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Chart School

Gold Gann Angle Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Charts show us the golden brick road to high prices.

GLD Gann Angle has been working since 2016. Higher prices are expected. Who would say anything different, and why and how?

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.



The GLD very wide channel shows us the way.
- Conservative: Tag the 10 year rally starting in 2001 to 2019 and it forecasts $750 GLD (or $7500 USD Gold Futures) in 10 years.
- Aggressive: Tag the 5 year rally starting in 1976 to 2019  and it forecasts $750 GLD (or $7500 USD Gold Futures) in 5 years.

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if ima...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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