Posts Tagged ‘Disaster Hedges’

Terrible Tuesday – Duck this Fip!

Now THIS is a panic!

Ordinarily, I would be very enthusiastic about buying but we were in an overbought market so we need to be very selective about what we buy.  Once again we had a lot of discussion of the Global situation in Member chat and a special 12:21am Alert went out to Members and there was a follow-up at 6:52 this morning and, frankly, we don’t really have better information at 7am than we did at midnight, which seems kind of crazy with all these 24-hour news channels and the web and all.  Instead of getting the facts instantly, it seems what we get is information overload where it’s almost impossible to separate facts from rumors.

I want to thank both Zeroxzero and Pentaxon for their excellent analysis of the nuclear situation in Japan yesterday – without their now-obviously accurate observations, we would have probably gone more bullish.  We did do some dip buying but generally with well-hedged positions except for the $25KP, where we did take a risk on FAS that will bite us in the ass.  

Once again, I apologize that it’s my job to get analytical when talking about a massive human tragedy but we need to step back and assess the situation.  I have been suggesting that people, in the very least, text REDCROSS to 90999 on your cell phones to donate $10 to help with the relief efforts in Japan – 250,000 people read me each morning and that’s $2.5M and if you pass this along to 10 friends and so on and so on we can really have some impact so please, Please, PLEASE – when you are about to buy something today – think of something you can do without and instead send $10 so a child in Japan can get fresh water to drink and a blanket to sleep on.  Thanks!  

What an interesting day for a Fed statement (2:15)!  We also have the normal Tuesday Retail Sales Reports, the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, Import/Export Prices, TIC Flows and the NAHB Housing Market Index – all important stuff but all overshadowed by events in Japan.  So, what is REAL over there?  In the morning alerts we discussed the status of the disaster and we have Members who are clearly better than I am at discerning the facts so we’ll deal with that
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Technically Troubling Tuesday

We finally blew our levels!

Sadly, it’s time to flip bearish until we can retake our watch levels at Dow 10,200, S&P 1,070, Nas 2,200, NYSE 6,800, and Russell 635.  If we can’t retake at least 2 of them today, we may be seeing 2.5% drops back to Dow 9,945, S&P 1,043, Nas 2,145, NYSE 6,630 and Russell 619.  Since the Russell already blew 619 we have to consider the possiblitlity of even a test of our 5% lines at Dow 9,690, S&P 1,016, Nas 2,090, NYSE 6,460, and Russell 603.

Fundamentals are great but once panic sets in the market is all about technicals and we just need to strap in and go along for the ride.  We have been playing for a bounce off our 10,200, 1,070 lines but, now that we lost it – it’s time to flip bearish – I was wrong and that’s that, time to move on and make some downside money.  Of course it will take more than a single day to give us a trend but the same way we don’t get very bearish until we loser 3 of 5 of our center levels, we don’t get bullish again until we break back over.  Yesterday I sent out an Alert to Members as we broke down, saying:  "We could very easily drop 250 from here on the Dow (2.5%)."

We added a fresh DXD hedge but we already had a proper hedge from Friday when the morning trade idea was:

A better way to hedge at the moment is the DXD Sept $27s for $1.70.  They have a delta of .62 but can be transferred into a vertical if the Dow goes up by selling the $25 puts (now .20) for .50 and covering with the $29s (now $1) for at least .70, leaving you in a $2 spread for .50.   That would be the ESCAPE, at the moment I like the plain DXD $27s at $1.70 until we get a real move back up.

That was an addition to the Morning Alert Trade, which was the DIA Sept $99 puts at $1.50.  Neither the DXD or the DIA plays have been paying off so far but they did provide cover for our speculative bullish plays as we tried to play the line.  Of course we take our major disaster hedges when the market is high (it’s cheaper then),
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The PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Trading Webinar - 04-24-19

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here.

 

Major Topics

00:04:59 - Money Talk Portfolio
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Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we...



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Zero Hedge

TPG To Strip Manager Embroiled In College Bribery Scandal Of Shares Worth Millions Of Dollars

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

As Lori Loughlin and Mossimo Giannulli plead not guilty in the hopes that their 'we didn't think we were doing anything wrong' defense manages to win over a jury of their not-quite-peers, private equity firm TPG Capital has taken the unprecedented step of stripping a former employee who was embroiled in the scandal of assets worth tens of millions of dollars.

According to Axios, after a brief interna...



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Biotech

No cure for Alzheimer's disease in my lifetime

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

No cure for Alzheimer's disease in my lifetime

In most cases, scientists are still unsure of what causes Alzheimer’s disease. FGC / Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Norman A. Paradis, Dartmouth College

Biogen recently announced that it was abandoning its late stage drug for Alzheimer’s, ...



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Insider Scoop

Earnings Scheduled For April 25, 2019

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Companies Reporting Before The Bell
  • Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (NYSE: BMY) is expected to report quarterly earnings at $1.07 per share on revenue of $5.71 billion.
  • 3M Company (NYSE: MMM) is estimated to report quarterly earnings at $2.49 per share on revenue of $8.04 billion.
  • Comcast Corporation (NASDAQ:...


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Chart School

Trump China trade deal currency component

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

The coming Trump trade deal could have an interesting component effecting the US dollar.

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Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Digital Currencies

5 Cryptocurrency Tax Questions To Ask On April 15th

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by David Kemmerer via CoinTelegraph.com,

Depending on what country you live in, your cryptocurrency will be subject to different tax rules. The questions below address implications within the United States, but similar issues arise around the world. As always, check with a local tax professional to assess your own particular tax situation.

...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver Bear Market Faces Big Price Support Test!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

When silver, gold, and the precious metals industry were red-hot bullish in the 2000’s, investors could do no wrong.

You could buy SILVER at just about any price and it would go higher.

In today’s chart, you can see three large green bullish ascending triangles from the 2000’s that lead to big gains. But that was the bull market before the current bear market.

The tables have turned since the 2011 price top. Silver quickly formed a bearish descending triangle and fell another 50 percent when that broke down. This sent a vicious bear mark...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

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In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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