Posts Tagged ‘dotcom bubble’

We’re the Kids in America

We’re the Kids in America

397155 31: People scream as they ride on the Splash Mountain ride at Walt Disney World's Magic Kingdom November 11, 2001 in Orlando, Florida. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

Courtesy of Joshua M Brown, The Reformed Broker 

"Avoiding risk may feel sensible to a generation whose financial coming-of-age has been bookended by the dotcom bubble and the subprime-mortgage meltdown."

When you talk to a Gen-Yer or a Millennial about stocks, you sense a vague connection between the subject at hand and a ride on Disney’s Splash Mountain beginning to form in an almost-tangible, cartoon thought bubble above their head.

18 to 34 year olds (I’m one of them) have seen virtually nothing but Death and Dismemberment from the stock market overall, despite the new NASDAQ highs of 10 years ago and Dow 14,000 top of ’07.

Our psyches are collectively scarred by the devastating crashes that stocks are capable of.  The index highs of our generation’s recent memory barely seem to register at all compared with the ‘Nam Flashbacks of job losses and bankruptcy that stock sell-offs have meant to young adults so far.

Our connection to the stock market is as follows:

"Stocks go up, Mom and Dad buy a lot of stuff."

"Stocks get killed, college tuition has now disappeared, our house is on the market and there won’t be any job for me anyway."

In my discussions with people of my own age group and slightly younger, this feeling is fairly prevalent.  There’s a kind of irony in the fact that the young are now more cautious than their Baby Boomer parents when it comes to investments.

Stock market volatility has meant hard times in real life for young adults, not just lighter brokerage statements.  It has meant shock layoffs, career changes, and the dismantling of whole industries like mortgage, banking, real estate, media and advertising.

Several studies quantify this phenomenon (as collected by Newsweek):

In 2010, only 41 percent of 18- to 29-year-olds reported working full time, compared with 50 percent in 2006, according to the Pew Research Center. Millennials were more likely to report losing their jobs than workers over the age of 30, and many recent college graduates have had a hard time finding a toehold in a tight labor market, even as the national unemployment rate rose Friday to 9.6 percent. If the 18- to 34-year-olds feel more cautious about investing, it’s partly because they have less money to spend and little economic security.


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Preserve and Protect: Mapping The Tipping Points

Preserve and Protect: Mapping The Tipping Points

Courtesy of Gordon T Long of Tipping Points

The economic news has turned decidedly negative globally and a sense of ‘quiet before the storm’ permeates the financial headlines. Arcane subjects such as a Hindenburg Omen now make mainline news. The retail investor continues to flee the equity markets and in concert with the institutional players relentlessly pile into the perceived safety of yield instruments, though they are outrageously expensive by any proven measure. Like trying to buy a pump during a storm flood, people are apparently willing to pay any price.  As a sailor, it feels like the ominous period where the crew is fastening down the hatches and preparing for the squall that is clearly on the horizon. Few crew mates are talgking as everyone is checking preparations for any eventuality. Are you prepared?

What if this is not a squall but a tropical storm, or even a hurricane? Unlike sailors, the financial markets do not have the forecasting technology for protection against such a possibility. Good sailors before today’s technology advancements avoided this possibility through the use of almanacs, shrewd observation of the climate and common sense. It appears to this old salt that all three are missing in today’s financial community.

Looking through the misty haze though, I can see the following clearly looming on the horizon.

Since President Nixon took the US off the Gold standard in 1971, the increase in global fiat currency has been nothing short of breath taking. It has grown unchecked and inevitably has become unhinged from world industrial production and the historical creators of real tangible wealth.

Do you believe trees grow to the sky?
Or, is it you believe you are smart enough to get out before this graph crashes?

Apparent synthetic wealth has artificially and temporarily been created through the production of paper. Whether Federal Reserve IOU notes (the dollar) or guaranteed certificates of confiscation (treasury notes & bonds), it needs to never be forgotten that these are paper. It is not wealth. It is someone else’s obligation to deliver that wealth to the holder of the paper based on what that paper is felt to be worth when the obligation is required to be surrendered. It must never be forgotten that fiat paper is only a counter party obligation to deliver. Will they?…
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INNOVATION: What made America great is now Killing her!

INNOVATION: What made America great is now Killing her! 

"Creative Destruction is Secular not Cyclical"

Courtesy of Gordon T. Long   

What made America great was her unsurpassed ability to innovate.  Equally important was also her ability to rapidly adapt to the change that this innovation fostered. For decades the combination has been a self reinforcing growth dynamic with innovation offering a continuously improving standard of living and higher corporate productivity levels, which the US quickly embraced and adapted to.

This in turn financed further innovation. No country in the world could match the American culture that flourished on technology advancements in all areas of human endeavor. However, something serious and major has changed across America.  Daily, more and more are becoming acutely aware of this, but few grasp exactly what it is.  It is called Creative Destruction. 

It turns out that what made America great is now killing her!

Our political leaders are presently addressing what they perceive as an intractable cyclical recovery problem when in fact it is a structural problem that is secular in nature. Like generals fighting the last war with outdated perceptions, we face a new and daunting challenge. A challenge that needs to be addressed with the urgency and scope of a Marshall plan that saved Europe from the ravages of a different type of destruction. We need a modern US centric Marshall plan focused on growth, but orders of magnitude larger than the one in the 1940’s. A plan even more brash than Kennedy’s plan in the 60’s to put a man of the moon by the end of the decade. America needs to again think and act boldly. First however, we need to see the enemy. As the great philosopher Pogo said: “I saw the enemy and it was I”.

THE  PROBLEM IS NOT CYCLICAL, IT IS SECULAR.

The dotcom bubble ushered in a change in America that is still reverberating through the nation and around the globe. The Internet unleashed productivity opportunities of unprecedented proportions in addition to new business models, new ways of doing business and completely new and never before realized markets.  Ten years ago there was no such position as a Web Master; having a home PC was primarily for doing word processing and creating spreadsheets; Apple made MACs; and ordering on-line was a quaint experiment for…
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Double Dip In Home Prices; Kohn Wins “Neanderthal Award”

No love lost here. 

Double Dip In Home Prices; Kohn Wins "Neanderthal Award"

Courtesy of Mish 

Caveman with an Empty Thought Cloud

Zillow claims Home Prices Have ‘Double Dip’ in 12 U.S. Cities

Twelve U.S. cities, including Boulder, Colorado, and Providence, Rhode Island, are showing extended declines in housing values, reversing signs of a sustained recovery last year, according to Zillow.com.

The number of markets in a “double dip” jumped in January from five in December, data released today by Seattle-based Zillow show. The real estate information provider defines a double dip as five consecutive price drops after at least five straight monthly increases. The gains must be preceded by a period where values fell in at least 10 of 12 months.

Home prices nationally dropped 0.6 percent in January from the prior month, the Federal Housing Finance Agency said yesterday. Government efforts to bolster the market spurred a 4.9 percent rise in home sales last year, the first annual gain since 2005, according to the National Association of Realtors.

The double dip through January also was seen in Colorado Springs and Greeley, Colorado; Augusta, Georgia; Columbus, Ohio; Harrisburg and Lancaster, Pennsylvania; Little Rock, Arkansas; Green Bay, Wisconsin; Greensboro, North Carolina; and Lincoln, Nebraska, according to Zillow.

Ten other markets, including Boston and Denver, “seem poised for a double dip,” the company said. Zillow still expects home values to bottom out by June, said Humphries.

Bottom Out In June? Why?

What possible reason can anyone have to think home prices will "bottom out in June? Perhaps a better question is "June of what year?"

There is a massive amount of shadow inventory, the job market sucks, we had a housing bounce because of $8,000 tax credits, that bounce is dead, and home prices are still way above rental prices and wages.

But hey, it could happen. Just don’t bet on it or even predict it.

Good Riddance to 40-Year Fed Veteran Donald Kohn

When it comes to housing bubbles, the Neanderthal Award must go to Donald Kohn for his statements on combating bubbles.

Federal Reserve policymakers should deepen their understanding about how to combat speculative bubbles to reduce the chances of another financial crisis, the central bank’s outgoing vice chairman said Wednesday.

Donald Kohn said the worst crisis to hit the country since the 1930s points to the need for more research on how higher interest rates can be used


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Zero Hedge

Mysterious Drone Swarm Breached Secure Airspace Over Largest Nuclear Power Plant In US

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

A mysterious incident related to a serious breach of secure airspace over America's largest nuclear power plant has been unearthed through Freedom of Information Act documents gained from the government.

It's leading to new fears that America's energy infrastructure is prone to attack and potentially being knocked offline, akin to the drone and missile attack which temporarily halted all Saudi oil exports last year at Aramco's Abaqaiq oil processing facility. Forbe's presents the asto...



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Phil's Favorites

Video: Who controls pandemic data?

 

Video: Who controls pandemic data?

Public data is vital to the functioning of a democracy. Witthaya Prasongsin / Getty Images

Courtesy of Julia Lane, New York University

Editor’s note: When the Trump administration ordered hospitals to report COVID-19 data to the Department of Health and Human Services rather than the Centers for Disease Control and Pre...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Video: Who controls pandemic data?

 

Video: Who controls pandemic data?

Public data is vital to the functioning of a democracy. Witthaya Prasongsin / Getty Images

Courtesy of Julia Lane, New York University

Editor’s note: When the Trump administration ordered hospitals to report COVID-19 data to the Department of Health and Human Services rather than the Centers for Disease Control and Pre...



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ValueWalk

A Solid Month For Most Hedge Funds

By Michelle Jones. Originally published at ValueWalk.

June was another good month for hedge funds, although not as good as May. The Eurekahedge Hedge Fund Index gained 1.38% in June as the global equity market drove gains among hedge funds. However, hedge funds underperformed the MSCI ACWI IMI, which was up 2.7% for June. The tech-heavy NASDAQ was up 4.05% in June, while the S&P 500 gained 0.87%.

Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

According to Eurekahedge, final asset flow numbers for May reveal performance-based gains of $27.3 billion and $300 million in inflows. Performance in June was still...



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Digital Currencies

Twitter Says "Human Error" And "Spear-Phishing Attack" Responsible For Massive Bitcoin Hack

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Twitter suffered from a major hack about two weeks ago and has now said that its staff was tricked by "spear-phishing", which is a targeted attack to trick people into simply handing out their passwords. 

Twitter staff were targeted through their phones, according to a new report from the BBC. The attacks then allowed hackers the ability to Tweet from celebrity Twitter accounts. Twitter has said it was "taking a hard look" at how it could improve its permissions and processes.

"The attack on July 15, 2020, targeted a small number of employees through a phone spear phishing attack. This attack relied on ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold Could Be Forming A 9-Year Bullish Cupping Pattern, Says Joe Friday!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Gold forming another long-term bullish cupping pattern? Sure could be!

Is the long-term pattern complete? If history is a guide, it would suggest not yet.

When gold attempted to break above its 1980 highs, it first needed to form a “handle.” It did so by declining around 30%, which most likely shook out a good deal of gold traders, thinking that a double top was forming.

Gold is currently testing its 2011 highs at (2), where it looks to be forming a bullish cupping pattern over the past 9-years.

J...



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The Technical Traders

ARE THE MARKETS ABOUT TO TURN?

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Deborah Honig from Adelaide Capital asks Chris the question on everyone’s mind – where are the markets heading? Where is the ‘big money’, the early movers in the market, going? Chris and Deborah also look at the technicals for Gold and Silver and discuss whether Gold and Silver are starting a big run-up now, or should we wait before taking positions?

Learn more about our latest research and alerts on Gold, Silver, Oil, and Equities at www.TheTechnicalTraders.com.

...

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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Chart School

US Dollar Cycle Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

If investors can correctly forecast the US Dollar then their portfolio will be standing on better ground.

Jesse Livermore said investors must familiarise themselves with all matters of the market. The sine wave cycle below shows regular tops and bottoms and if the investor ignores this repeating phenomena it could be at their peril. If you decide to do so, you best have a good technical or fundamental reason.

The sine wave cycle below was found with readtheticker.com 'Cycle Finder Spectrum' use of 'Bartels' logic. Yes it is mathematics, but within the site RTT Plus service we also examine the dollar fundamentals  (like: inflation, money s...

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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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