Posts Tagged ‘Dow 10’

Dow 10,000: A Celebration

Yea!!  Market keeps going but it sure feels like the wrong team is winning… Ilene

Dow 10,000: A Celebration

Courtesy of Jesse’s Café Américain

dow 10000Team coverage today on Bloomberg by the Money Honeys as the Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed 10,000 intra-day, led by J.P. Morgan, in a move that surely epitomizes the illusions of wealth granted by modern accounting practices.

Can you believe the NYSE had the nerve to prepare new Dow 10,000 hats and distribute them for today? The first time the Dow Industrials crossed 10,000 was in 1999. The last time it closed over 10,000 was in October of 2008, just before the most recent plunge of the collapsing credit bubble.

That does not speak well of equities for the "buy and hold" crowd, which has surely had a wild ride if they have indeed managed to hold on for the last ten years, and ex-dividends and fees and commissions and inflation and a plunging US dollar and soaring commodities are… even.

And all that was required to create this economic miracle was to repeal the Glass-Steagall safeguards created by Congress after the Great Depression, decimating the productive economy, amassing a mountain of debt that can never be repaid, restructuring the Dow Industrials every so often, most recently replacing such inconsequential names as General Motors and Citigroup, and of course the devastation of the US dollar and a general loss of reputation and credibility around the world for justice and liberty.

But look where we have been? But who do you think took us there? Al, Ben, Larry Summers, Robert Rubin, Sandy Weil, craven economists and the crony capitalists in corporate America and their enablers and dependents in Washington.

"At what point shall we expect the approach of danger? By what means shall we fortify against it? Shall we expect some transatlantic military giant, to step the Ocean, and crush us at a blow? Never! All the armies of Europe, Asia and Africa combined, with all the treasure of the earth (our own excepted) in their military chest; with a Buonaparte for a commander, could not by force, take a drink from the Ohio, or make a track on the Blue Ridge, in a trial of a thousand years. At what point, then, is the approach of danger to be expected? I answer, if it ever reach us it


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Legends of the Fall

Legends of the Fall

Courtesy of Tim Knight at Slope of Hope

This will be my last post until Monday. I’d like to forget about the past two weeks, thank you very much.

The market’s rise over the past 4 months has been spectacular, and I think it might have more to go. But let’s give this a bit of historical context.

Below is the Dow Jones 30 shown during a different bear market rally. In this instance, the market went down 51% and then went up 52% (I will step in here and gently remind folks that a 52% gain after a 51% fall doesn’t bring you back to a profit, since you are staring with a damaged base).

0724-dowold, dow

This is very similar to what we’ve seen recently, although in spite of the market’s strength, it could still climb some more and be within the bounds of this historical parallel. We’ve gone up "only" about 41% so far, so it’s entirely possible we could claw our way back to the psychologically-meaningful 10,000 on the Dow (and, boy, wouldn’t that make headlines!) I’ve tinted in green the climb we’ve had so far, and I’ve tinted in magenta the "extra" portion we might climb given the historical analog.

0724-dowRecent, dow chart

We don’t know the future, but we do know the past. Below is the subsequent market action following the example on top. I have, once again, tinted in green the countertrend rally. As you can see, the 52% rise didn’t matter that much once all was said and done.

0724-dowPlunge

This isn’t to say it’ll happen again. Based on what the past two weeks have done to my sense of certainty, I figure we could be out Dow 20,000 by next Friday and not surprise anyone.

But the point is to understand that big percentage gains over short amounts of time don’t necessarily hold up. Thus ends the sermon, and thus ends these two wretched weeks. I’m going to now go and get as far away from a chart as my feet will carry me.


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Phil's Favorites

What if GDP falls more than the stock market?

 

What if GDP falls more than the stock market?

Courtesy of 

In the last recession, GDP contracted by less than 5%, but the stock market fell 57% from peak to trough. Stocks reacted to economic conditions in a way the “real” economy did not.

In our present situation, Wall Street strategists are predicting a second quarter contraction for the economy of up to 30% (annualized), which the drop in stock prices have already achieved.

Michael and Ben sort out some important distinctions between the stock market’s historic reaction to recessions and the recessions themselves…

  ...



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Zero Hedge

Trump Says "No Quarantine Necessary" For NY, NJ And CT As US Death Toll Tops 2,000: Live Updates

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Summary:

  • Global case total tops 600k
  • Global COVID-19 death toll tops 30k
  • US death toll tops 2k
  • After Trump earlier said he was weighing enforceable quarantine order for all the tri-state area, late on Sunday he said that "on the recommendation of the White House CoronaVirus Task Force, and upon consultation with the Governor’s of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut" he would not be imposing a quarantine. ...


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Biotech/COVID-19

The world before this coronavirus and after cannot be the same

 

The world before this coronavirus and after cannot be the same

Gettyimages

Courtesy of Ian Goldin, University of Oxford and Robert Muggah, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio)

With COVID-19 infections now evident in 176 countries, the pandemic is the most significant threat to humanity since the second world war. Then, as now, confidence in international cooperation and institutions plumbed new lows.

While the on...



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Digital Currencies

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

 

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

Get used to it. Anastasiia Bakai

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

Anyone holding bitcoin would have watched the market with alarm in recent weeks. The virtual currency, whose price other cryptocurrencies like ethereum and litecoin largely follow, plummeted from more than US$10,000 (£8,206) in mid-February to briefly below US$4,000 on March 13. Despite recovering to the mid-US$6,000s at the time of writin...



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Insider Scoop

'Psyched': Hawaii Considers Resolution For Shrooms, Champignon Eyes Ketamine Products

Courtesy of Benzinga

Psyched is a bi-monthly column covering the most important developments in the industry of medicinal psychedelics. We hope you follow us periodically as we report on the growth of this exciting new industry.

Champignon Brands Buys IP Company and Adds Ketamine and New Formulations To Its Portfolio

On March 19, Champignon Brands Inc. (CSE: SHRM) (OTC: SHRMF), a Canadian healt...



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The Technical Traders

These Index Charts Will Calm You Down

Courtesy of Technical Traders

I put together this video that will calm you down, because knowing where are within the stock market cycles, and the economy makes all the difference.

This is the worst time to be starting a business that’s for sure. I have talked about this is past videos and events I attended that bear markets are fantastic opportunities if you can retain your capital until late in the bear market cycle. If you can do this, you will find countless opportunities to invest money. From buying businesses, franchises, real estate, equipment, and stocks at a considerable discount that would make today’s prices look ridiculous (which they are).

Take a quick watch of this video because it shows you ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Broadest Of All Stock Indices Testing Critical Support, Says Joe Friday!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

One of the broadest indices in the states remains in a long-term bullish trend, where a critical support test is in play.

The chart looks at the Wilshire 5000 on a monthly basis over the past 35-years.

The index has spent the majority of the past three decades inside of rising channel (1). It hit the top of this multi-decade channel to start off the year, where it created a monthly bearish reversal pattern.

Weakness the past 2-months has the index testing rising support and the December 2018 lows at (2).

Joe...



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Chart School

Cycle Trading - Funny when it comes due

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Non believers of cycles become fast believers when the heat of the moment is upon them.

Just has we have birthdays, so does the market, regular cycles of time and price. The market news of the cycle turn may change each time, but the time is regular. Markets are not a random walk.


Success comes from strategy and the execution of a plan.















Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch an...

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Members' Corner

Bloody Mob Sh*t: An Interview with Lincoln's Bible

 

Bloody Mob Sh*t: An Interview with Lincoln's Bible

We talk Trump, Mogilevich, Epstein, Giuliani, Fred Trump, Roy Cohn, and more.

Courtesy of Greg Olear at PREVAIL, author of Dirty Rubles: An Introduction to Trump/Russia

(Originally published on Feb. 21, 20.)

...

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ValueWalk

Entrepreneurial activity and business ownership on the rise

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Indicating strong health of entrepreneurship, both entrepreneurial activity and established business ownership in the United States have trended upwards over the past 19 years, according to the 2019/2020 Global Entrepreneurship Monitor Global Report, released March 3rd in Miami at the GEM Annual Meeting.

Q4 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The Benefit Of Entrepreneurial Activity ...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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