Posts Tagged ‘Dow 10’

Dow 10,000: A Celebration

Yea!!  Market keeps going but it sure feels like the wrong team is winning… Ilene

Dow 10,000: A Celebration

Courtesy of Jesse’s Café Américain

dow 10000Team coverage today on Bloomberg by the Money Honeys as the Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed 10,000 intra-day, led by J.P. Morgan, in a move that surely epitomizes the illusions of wealth granted by modern accounting practices.

Can you believe the NYSE had the nerve to prepare new Dow 10,000 hats and distribute them for today? The first time the Dow Industrials crossed 10,000 was in 1999. The last time it closed over 10,000 was in October of 2008, just before the most recent plunge of the collapsing credit bubble.

That does not speak well of equities for the "buy and hold" crowd, which has surely had a wild ride if they have indeed managed to hold on for the last ten years, and ex-dividends and fees and commissions and inflation and a plunging US dollar and soaring commodities are… even.

And all that was required to create this economic miracle was to repeal the Glass-Steagall safeguards created by Congress after the Great Depression, decimating the productive economy, amassing a mountain of debt that can never be repaid, restructuring the Dow Industrials every so often, most recently replacing such inconsequential names as General Motors and Citigroup, and of course the devastation of the US dollar and a general loss of reputation and credibility around the world for justice and liberty.

But look where we have been? But who do you think took us there? Al, Ben, Larry Summers, Robert Rubin, Sandy Weil, craven economists and the crony capitalists in corporate America and their enablers and dependents in Washington.

"At what point shall we expect the approach of danger? By what means shall we fortify against it? Shall we expect some transatlantic military giant, to step the Ocean, and crush us at a blow? Never! All the armies of Europe, Asia and Africa combined, with all the treasure of the earth (our own excepted) in their military chest; with a Buonaparte for a commander, could not by force, take a drink from the Ohio, or make a track on the Blue Ridge, in a trial of a thousand years. At what point, then, is the approach of danger to be expected? I answer, if it ever reach us it


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Legends of the Fall

Legends of the Fall

Courtesy of Tim Knight at Slope of Hope

This will be my last post until Monday. I’d like to forget about the past two weeks, thank you very much.

The market’s rise over the past 4 months has been spectacular, and I think it might have more to go. But let’s give this a bit of historical context.

Below is the Dow Jones 30 shown during a different bear market rally. In this instance, the market went down 51% and then went up 52% (I will step in here and gently remind folks that a 52% gain after a 51% fall doesn’t bring you back to a profit, since you are staring with a damaged base).

0724-dowold, dow

This is very similar to what we’ve seen recently, although in spite of the market’s strength, it could still climb some more and be within the bounds of this historical parallel. We’ve gone up "only" about 41% so far, so it’s entirely possible we could claw our way back to the psychologically-meaningful 10,000 on the Dow (and, boy, wouldn’t that make headlines!) I’ve tinted in green the climb we’ve had so far, and I’ve tinted in magenta the "extra" portion we might climb given the historical analog.

0724-dowRecent, dow chart

We don’t know the future, but we do know the past. Below is the subsequent market action following the example on top. I have, once again, tinted in green the countertrend rally. As you can see, the 52% rise didn’t matter that much once all was said and done.

0724-dowPlunge

This isn’t to say it’ll happen again. Based on what the past two weeks have done to my sense of certainty, I figure we could be out Dow 20,000 by next Friday and not surprise anyone.

But the point is to understand that big percentage gains over short amounts of time don’t necessarily hold up. Thus ends the sermon, and thus ends these two wretched weeks. I’m going to now go and get as far away from a chart as my feet will carry me.


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Phil's Favorites

Trump gets no special protections because he's president and must release financial records, Supreme Court rules

 

Trump gets no special protections because he's president and must release financial records, Supreme Court rules

Investigators are trying to follow the president’s money, and the Supreme Court just gave them the green light. Alex Wong/Getty Images

Courtesy of Stanley M. Brand, Pennsylvania State University

In a 7-2 decision, the Supreme Court has ruled that President Donald Trump has no immunity, by virtue of being presiden...



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ValueWalk

Second Coronavirus stimulus: how it could affect student loans

By Aman Jain. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The second coronavirus stimulus is largely expected to come sometime later this month. The main talking points so far are stimulus checks and unemployment benefits. Though not much talked about, there is one more segment that lawmakers could focus on with the next coronavirus stimulus, and that is student loans.

Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

How next coronavirus stimulus affects student loans?

The CARES Act, which was passed in ...



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Zero Hedge

Supreme Court Rules Trump Tax Returns Must Be Released To NY Grand Jury

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

The Supreme Court on Thursday ruled that a New York Grand Jury can have President Trump's tax records, after Manhattan prosecutor Cy Vance subpoenaed eight years of returns in connection with an investigation into hush money payments made to porn star Stormy Daniels, according to Axios.

The court has yet to rule on whether House Democrats can have access to the records, after the lawmakers issued subpoenas to Deutsche Bank, Capital One, and the president's longtime accounting fi...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Tech Experiencing A 20-Year Breakout, While Small Caps Are Near 20-Year Lows!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Successful investors are often rewarded by owning strength and avoiding weakness.

Could two key sectors be experiencing 20-year strength and weakness extremes at the same time? Yes!

The NDX 100/S&P ratio (left above) is currently experiencing a 20-year breakout at (1).

At the same time, the Russell 2000/S&P ratio is near 20-year lows at (2).

This 2-pack reflects that the place to be at this time continues to be Tech...



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Biotech/COVID-19

5 COVID-19 myths politicians have repeated that just aren't true

 

5 COVID-19 myths politicians have repeated that just aren't true

The purveyors of these myths aren’t doing the country any favors. Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images

Courtesy of Geoffrey Joyce, University of Southern California

The number of new COVID-19 cases in the U.S. has jumped to around 50,000 a day, and the virus has killed more than 130,000 Americans. Yet, I still hear myths about the infection that has created the worst public health crisis in A...



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The Technical Traders

Credit/Investments Turned Into End-User Risk Again

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Continuing our research from Part I, into what to expect in Q2 and Q3 of 2020, we’ll start by discussing our Adaptive Dynamic Learning predictive modeling system and our belief that the US stock market is rallied beyond proper expectation levels.  The Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) modeling systems attempts to identify price and technical indicator DNA markers and attempts to map our these...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Saturday, 14 March 2020, 05:51:16 PM

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Comment: Crash in perspective - its Bad, and not over!



Date Found: Saturday, 14 March 2020, 07:49:29 PM

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Comment: The Blood Bath Has Begun youtu.be/bmC8k1qmM0s



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Lee's Free Thinking

These Charts Show COVID 19 Is Spreading in the US and Will Kill the Economy

 

These Charts Show COVID 19 Is Spreading in the US and Will Kill the Economy

Courtesy of  

The COVID 19 pandemic is, predictably, worsening again in much of the US. Only the Northeast, and to a lesser extent some Midwestern states, have been consistently improving. And that trend could also reverse as those states fully reopen.

The problem in the US seems to be widespread public resistance to recommended practices of social distancing and mask wearing. In countries where these practices have been practi...



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Digital Currencies

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

 

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

App-etising? LDprod

Courtesy of Michael Rogerson, University of Bath and Glenn Parry, University of Surrey

Food supply chains were vulnerable long before the coronavirus pandemic. Recent scandals have ranged from modern slavery ...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

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Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

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Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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