Posts Tagged ‘DRYS’

PSW Wrap-Up Show for the Week

We have a new episode of The Wrap-Up Show.

This time, it’s a quick review of the week’s activity:

Also, as we have a ton of Government Data that will be driving the markets next week, let’s review "How the US Government Manipulates Inflation Data" – just so we remember not to take it all too seriously.  


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Breakout Defense Part Deux – 5 More Trades that Make 500% in a Rising Market (Members Only)

SPY 5 MINUTEHere we are again!  

The last time I wrote a Breakout Defense article was back on December 11th when I said: "Wow!  I mean wow! Will this market ever go down? My mother called me this morning and she’s raising her GDP outlook for 2011 too – that’s how crazy things have gotten out there. I’m just waiting for the Pope to come out and tell us to buy CMG and Netflix and THEN we’ll know it’s a sign."  Clearly, my Mom and the Pope nailed it as the the Dow is up another 500 points (4.3%) since then and CMG made a comeback yesterday and is a bit higher than Dec. 10th's finish at $238.22 and NFLX is well above $194.63 so the infallibility streak continues for the pontiff!  

As with last time, I would urge you to spend some time reading (and now viewing) David Fry's market commentary over at ETF digest.  Dave's take on the IWM, which we have been playing this week, is that it is still rolling over and that investors should not be fooled by the Dow.  I'm not here to debate the points – this is an article about what we can do to make sure we don't miss the rally train if it does leave the station and, like last time, it's very easy to set aside a small amount of capital into highly leveraged trades like this, which can make excellent returns on even small rises in the market.  On the whole, I remain cautious and still believing that we may be in a blow-off top but we have plenty of bearish short-term bets and we need some balance – just in case… 

We had just a 4.3% gain since our December picks and check out this performance on those already:

  • FAS Apr $20/25 bull call spread paired with the sale of the April $21 puts for net .15, now $3.98, up 2,553%. 
  • DBC Apr $27 calls at $1, now $2.05 – up 105%
  • 4 DBC Jan $22/27 bull call spread paired with the sale of the 3 USO 2013 $30 puts for net $170, now $740 – up 335%
  • DBC Jan $26/30 bull call spread paired with the sale of


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October’s Overbought Eight – Expiration Check-Up (Members Only)

Up and up the markets go, where they stop – only  Ben knows!

We actually initiated the October 8 picks on Thurs, Sept 30th, when we had that crazy Dow spike to 10,950.  As it was the last day of the month we got an instant winner on the NFLX play and some other good ones as we plunged to 10,700 that Monday.  In between, when I wrote the post on Sunday, Oct 3rd, I said "I hate to go short."

We were still very bullish in our virtual portfolios (see September's Dozen, Turning $10K to $50K, Defending with Dividends, 9 Fabulous Dow Plays and the June 26th Buy List) since the June bottom (and we were early on that call too) but we felt is was time to start covering with some bearish plays as we completed our projected 12.5% run back 11,000.  These 8 trade ideas were to get the ball rolling in October.  Since then we have flown up to 11,062 on the Dow, slightly over our projected top, much the way 9,650 was slightly below our projected bottom in July.  The rally still has not retraced enough to cause us to give up on our long-term longs so this is a BALANCING move on an expected pullback, not an overall long-term bearish posture – always be clear about that!  We've been bullish since the beginning of July as this point it pays to diversify.

Like July, we can take advantage of the the spike out of our range to scale into positions and to roll and adjust the trades and, like July, we looked at some bullish covers along the way – just in case we are even earlier than we thought.  I'm not going to get into the whole macro thing here – I did that all week but everything old is new again, as you can see from this chart:

 

I don't know how well you can see this but I copied the current rally and lined up the bottom with the Feb rally.  It's hard to see because the movement is VIRTUALLY IDENTICAL.  That's right, Lloyd is either too lazy or too cheap to even bother to change the Bots he uses to gooses
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Bulls Bulk Up On DryShips Call Options

Today’s tickers: DRYS, PG, LCC, MHP, GDX, AMR, AMGN & GMCR

DRYS – DryShips, Inc. – A number of options players boarded the DryShips, Inc. bullish bandwagon this afternoon after the dry bulk carrier was upgraded to ‘equal-weight’ from ‘underweight’ and given a target share price of $5.50 at Morgan Stanley. DryShips’ shares jumped 9.95% in the second half of the trading day to touch an intraday high of $4.53. In- and out-of-the-money call options on the shipping firm were in high demand, particularly in the October and November contracts. Traders scooped up some 2,300 in-the-money calls at the October $4.0 strike for an average premium of $0.45 each. Optimists also picked up roughly 6,700 calls at the higher October $5.0 strike by shelling out an average premium of $0.05 apiece. DRYS’ shares would need to rally another 11.5% over today’s high of $4.53 in order for October $5.0 strike call buyers to make money above the average breakeven point at $5.05 by October expiration. Bulls looked to the November $5.0 strike to take ownership of some 4,000 call options at an average premium of $0.14 a-pop. Investors long the calls are prepared to profit should the price of the underlying stock increase another 13.5% in the next couple months to trade above $5.14 by November expiration. Options implied volatility on DryShips surged 10.9% to 48.14% by 3:40 pm ET.

PG – Procter & Gamble Co. – Shares of the consumer goods manufacturer edged 0.60% lower this afternoon to trade at $61.26 with 30 minutes remaining in the trading session. One pessimistic player appears to be building up downside protection on the stock through expiration in January 2012. The investor initiated a ratio put spread, buying 2,000 puts at the January 2012 $60 strike for a premium of $6.00 each, and selling 4,000 puts at the lower January 2012 $45 strike at a premium of $1.80 apiece. The net cost of the transaction amounts to $2.40 per contract. Thus, the investor starts to make money – or realize downside protection on a long position in shares – if the price of the underlying stock falls 6.00% to slip beneath the effective breakeven price of $57.60 by expiration day. Maximum potential profits of $12.60 per contract are available to the trader, but require PG’s shares to collapse down to $45.00. Options implied volatility on PG is up 7.3% at 14.78% as…
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Cisco Call Options Fly off the Shelves

Today’s tickers: CSCO, DRYS, CIGX, AES, V, MCD, BIIB, SNE, GME & VALE

CSCO – Cisco Systems, Inc. – Bullish call-buying dominated options trading patterns on Cisco today on news the firm is slated to “make a significant announcement that will forever change the internet and its impact on consumers, businesses and governments.” Cisco’s shares jumped 4.15% to a new 52-week high of $26.25 during the session on a target share price upgrade to $28.00 from $26.00 at JPMorgan Chase & Co. Bullish traders purchased approximately 15,800 in-the-money calls at the March $26 strike for a premium of $0.33 apiece and coveted 9,300 calls at the higher March $27 strike for an average premium of $0.10 each. Uber-bullish individuals bought 4,000 calls at the March $28 strike for just two pennies premium per contract. Investors long the closest-to-the-money March $26 strike calls are positioned to accrue profits if Cisco’s shares trade above $26.33 ahead of expiration day. The surge in demand for options on the stock as well as uncertainty surrounding tomorrow’s announcement lifted the reading of overall options implied volatility on Cisco by 17.5% to 22.85% in afternoon trading.

DRYS – DryShips, Inc. – Dry-bulk shipping company, DryShips, Inc., experienced a short-lived dip in the price of its shares in morning trading, but regained its footing this afternoon, rallying 7.77% to $6.10 with about forty minutes remaining in the session. Call-buying action flooded DRYS today with approximately 22,300 now in-the-money calls picked up at the near-term March $6 strike for an average premium of $0.22 apiece. Nearly 12,000 calls were coveted at the higher March $7 strike for $0.05 premium per contract. Optimism spread to the same strike prices in the April contract, as well. Investors secured roughly 11,600 long in-the-money calls at the April $6 strike for an average premium of $0.39 each. Traders bought another 4,000 call options at the higher April $7 strike for $0.16 per contract. Options traders exchanged more than 130,000 contracts on DryShips during the session, which represents about 27% of total existing open interest on the stock of 480,443 contracts. Options implied volatility jumped approximately 34.8% this afternoon to 60.26%.

CIGX – Star Scientific, Inc. – Shares of the maker of dissolvable smokeless tobacco products surged 6.70% to $1.12 today, inspiring one investor to establish a bullish risk reversal on the stock in the August contract. The trader appears to have sold…
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Weekly Wrap-Up – Buffett’s Daring Derivative Deal Does Well

I was going to talk about Buffett's annual letter to investors.

Fortunately, I procrastinated and other people did some detailed reporting like Ravi Nagarajan, Andy Fry, Scott Patterson and Joe Del Bruno – who does a great job of pointing out that Berkshire's 4th quarter results were propped up by Buffett's $1.05Bn gains in derivatives betting (something Buffett himself once called "weapons of mass financial destruction" but, as we well know – if you can't beat them…), which accounted for 1/3 of Berkshire's $3.06Bn profits

Buffett's biggest bet was selling a put against the S&P 500 back in March – a move I said at the time was BRILLIANT and Buffett himself now says about his own options trading:  "We are delighted that we hold the derivatives contracts that we do.  To date, we have significantly profited from the float they provide. We expect also to earn further investment income over the life of our contracts."  

What did Buffett do?  Exactly what we teach you to do here at PSW - he took advantage of an irrational move in the markets and SOLD INTO THE EXCITEMENT, getting a fat premium from some sucker that bet the S&P would not hold 666 5 years from now.  Buffett effectively sold $5Bn worth of puts that expires worthless at S&P 700 between 2019 and 2027, putting $5Bn in his pocket and holding aside $1Bn in margin, which is how much he's already ahead on the bet.  Like a good options trader, he has a plan and he's trading his plan, making sure his investment is on track and patiently letting time do it's work as it eats away at the put-holder's premium. 

What about the risk?  Well I can't speak for Buffett's stop-loss technique but we're talking about a company that has (had) $40Bn in cash using their excess margin to make a $5Bn bet that the S&P would not stay below 700 for 10 years.  Buffett and I both tell people – NEVER buy a stock (or sell a put against one) that you are not willing to own for 10 years.  The S&P was 5% below at the time and would have had to drop, perhaps, 20% more to cost him $1Bn so let's call the stop 550 on the S&P where Buffett risked 2.5% of his cash against a posible 400% gain on his $1Bn risk allocation over 10+ years.  While it is true that if the
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Two Week Wrap-Up – Trading Our Range

Your "crystal ball" was dead-on with the insights into the report on jobs as well as the initial rise and then correction. Truly impressive.  – Champstar2

We didn't have a weekly wrap-up last week because of the holiday.

In our Nov 21st Wrap-Up, I had said next week we’ll be watching to see if we can get more bullish above our 25% lines at: Dow 10,250, S&P 1,100, Nasdaq 2,187, NYSE 7,000 and Russell 600 and that became the bottom of our new range while I sent out a 9:41 Alert to our Members on Nov 23rd sticking with our upside targets of Dow 10,471, S&P 1,113, Nas 2,205, NYSE 7,266 and Russell 605.  That has been a very reliable range to play for the past two weeks and we've been having a good time playing both ends of it.

Rather than just wrapping up this week's moves, I thought we'd add the prior week as the pattern is very much the same (and it was the same the week before) so it certainly bears (oops, don't say bears!) studying.  Of course, when I talk about patterns, I don't just mean the chart pattern where we have all of our gains for the week on Monday and Tuesday on low volume and then larger volume selling for the rest of the week as the funds who pump the futures up dump their ill-gotten gains on retail investors.  I'm talking about the global new patterns, as reported by the MSM, that make this sort of manipulation so effective.  It's not that I'm so good at predicting things – it's really just that I'm good at spotting the BS…

Monday - Stuffing the Futures for Thanksgiving

I was pointing out that morning that 90% of the market gains since October had been coming on a single day each week and how a lot of that was happening in the very thinly-traded Futures market, where a few thousand shares traded overnight are able to lever the entire US market up by Trillions of Dollars.  It's a very sick and broken system that has been seized by manipulators to yank investors around, making sure retail investors have little ability to participate in these wild market moves as the game is already over by the time trading starts the next
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Wells Fargo Put Spreaders Back in Town

Today’s tickers: WFC, AMR, PG, DRYS, DTV, M, EMC, WYNN, TOL & SFD

WFC – Wells Fargo & Co. – A popular option strategy frequently employed on Wells Fargo, the ratio put spread, appeared once again in the January 2010 contract. The bearish play was initiated despite the more than 2% rally in shares during the trading session to $28.75. The ratio spread involved the purchase of 7,500 puts at the January 27.5 strike for an average premium of 1.60 apiece, marked against the sale of 15,000 puts at the lower January 24 strike for 67 cents each. The net cost of the protective play amounts to 26 cents per contract. Thus, downside protection will kick in if shares decline beneath the breakeven price of $27.24 by expiration in January.

AMR – AMR Corp. – American Airlines operator, AMR Corp., attracted a large bullish play by one investor targeting the January 2010 contract. Shares of AMR are up more than 4% to $5.83 with just under one hour remaining in the trading day. An AMR-optimist initiated a call spread by purchasing 15,000 calls at the January 7.5 strike for an average premium of 35 cents each, marked against the sale of 15,000 calls at the higher January 9.0 strike for 10 cents premium apiece. The net cost of the bullish transaction amounts to 25 cents per contract. Profits are available to the call-spreader if shares of AMR rally at least 33% to breach the breakeven point at $7.75 by expiration. Maximum potential profits of 1.25 per contract for a total of $1.875 million are attained by the trader if shares surge 54% to $9.00.

PG – The Proctor & Gamble Co. – Options activity in the January 2011 contract on the consumer products company today indicates one investor expects little fluctuation in shares over the next 14 months. Shares of PG are slightly up by less than 0.25% to stand at $61.90. The trader initiated a sold strangle by selling 2,000 puts at the January 60 strike for 5.73 each, and by selling 2,000 calls at the higher January 65 strike for a premium of 3.82 apiece. The gross premium pocketed on the sale amounts to 9.55 per contract. The strangle-seller retains the full premium if shares of PG remain ‘strangled’ within the parameters of the strike prices described. The investor will benefit from lower option implied volatility on the…
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Monday Markets – Is Momentum Shifting?

We're still trying to get bullish, really we are

Yes we are reluctantly bullish and only technically bullish at that.  All we are asking of the markets is for them to take out our very simple levels and hold them for more than a day or two.    Those levels are (and have been since early September):  Dow 10,087, S&P 1,096, Nasdaq 2,173, NYSE 7,204 and Russell 623.  These are, according to the 5% rule, the levels we need to hold in order to establish a floor in the markets that justifies setting higher upside targets.  If they cannot be crossed, then these REMAIN our upside range targets and we need to start seriously considering the possibility that we may still get a pullback to Dow 9,650, S&P 1,020, Nas 2,075, NYSE 6,900 and Russell 575.

As I mentioned last week (and noted on David Fry's IWM chart), the Russell was the first to fail our 623 mark and will be our canary in the coal mine as they test 595, which is the 50 dma.  A failure there and the markets have little support all the way down to our June highs, our original breakout levels of Dow 8,650 and other levels you don't even want to think about on a Monday. 

$2.66 is another level we don't want to think about.  That's the average price of regular gasoline this weekend.  Despite 10% lower demand than last year when December gasoline averaged $1.66 a gallon.  What's a dollar a gallon between friends right? 

Well, actually since US consumers use 63M barrels of gas each week, and a barrel happens to be 42 gallons, it happens to be about $10.5Bn a month taken our of consumer's pockets.  That's cash, after-tax money – gone!  Money they won't be able to give to all those nice Russell companies for Christmas this year.  Remember how much that $160Bn stimulus helped the economy last year?  How much do you think a $120Bn mugging hurts the economy this year? 

The timing couldn't be worse – last year, gas prices flew down and helped people make it to the mall for Christmas, this year already – as we can see from Amazon's great quarter, many people will be skipping the malls and buying on-line.  With 10% of the workforce…
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Wild Weekly Wrap-Up – August in Retrospect

It has been a crazy few weeks!

I went back over our Long Shots list from August 9th, thinking all our picks must be doing great but really only C, with a 67% gain, is really outperforming.  Long spreads on UYG and BHI are on target for nice gains but haven't moved much.  Looking at our original picks in Pharmboys Phavorites from the same week, GSK is on track and up nicely already, our AZN cover is up 45% and MRK flew up 19% already.  On the riskier Biotech side, ARIA's stock is up 16% and our spreads are all performing well, ONTY has been flat, OGXI is up 33% and the Jan $17.50s are up a rockin' 63% with that "cautious" spread up a surprising 75% already

SPPI had a wild ride (as we predicted with TSCM's failed assassination attempt) and the buy/write is already up 24%, the Feb vertical is up 50% and the naked Jan put sale is up 27% and our Feb hedge play is right on track so all good there and a fine example of how following Cramer and his lackeys and and doing the opposite of what they say can be very profitable!  Congrats to Pharmboy for a very fine set of picks, proving once again that there is room for research and fundamentals - not a single loser in the bunch in a choppy market!  It was very timely as I had mentioned just that week in my interview with AOL Finance that XLV was my favorite sector and our IHI pick of 8/10 is up 28% on the naked Feb $45 put sale while the Feb $45 calls have already jumped 16%.  It was a great call as IHI outperformed XLV and all our major indexes.

So our energy service pick (BHI) and overall financial pick (UYG) have not done much in 3 weeks and those were our leading sectors into my call to cash out our exposed long calls on Aug 13th, ahead of expirations.  The Dow was at 9,400 on that day and now, a bit more than 2 weeks later, we've gained another 144 points but to listen to the MSM, you would think you are missing the rally of the century the past couple of weeks.  This is one of the reasons I've gotten a bit more cynical about the…
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Zero Hedge

More Italians Move Savings To Switzerland As Fears Of Banking "Doom Loop" Intensify

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

With the euro weakening against the Swiss franc (recently trading at session lows of 1.14) and Italian stocks and bonds tumbling once again on reports that the European Commission is planning to reject the Italian draft budget plan submitted earlier this week - a repudiation of Italy's populist leaders that was widely anticipated - th...



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Phil's Favorites

Jamal Khashoggi disappearance a defining moment for Saudi Arabia's relations with the West

 

Embed from Getty Images

 

Jamal Khashoggi disappearance a defining moment for Saudi Arabia's relations with the West

Armida L. M. van Rij, King's College London

On October 2, Saudi Arabian journalist Jamal Khashoggi entered his country’s consulate in Istanbul to obtain the documents he needed to marry his fiancée. She was waiting outside. He never came out.

Following days of report...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Banks Creating Pattern Similar To 2007 Highs?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The left chart above looks at the Bank Index (BKX) over the past 13-years. In 2007, the index diverged with the broad market as it was creating a bearish descending triangle. Once support of the descending triangle broke, selling pressure ramped up. This pattern took place while “interest rates were actually moving higher, which is often good for banks.”

This year the bank index has been diverging from the broad market while forming a bearis...



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Insider Scoop

Musk Will Buy Another $20M In Tesla Stock - The Same Amount He Was Fined By The SEC

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related TSLA Tesla Trades Higher After Judge Approves Musk's SEC Settlement Saudi Arabia Mixes Oil, Politics After Journ...

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Digital Currencies

Tether Tumbles Below Critical $1 Threshold As Dollar-Pegged Crypto Doubts Soar

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Update: Careful to quickly assuage any potential loss of the narrative and 'full faith and credit' of the 'stablecoin', Tether released a statement on USDT drop:

"We would like to reiterate that although markets have shown temporary fluctuations in price, all USDT in circulation are sufficiently backed by U.S. dollars (USD) and that assets have always exceeded liabilities."

See, nothing to panic about.

*  *  *

The only cryptocurrency not rallying right now is the one pegged to the U.S. dolla...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Oct 14, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

Wednesday and Thursday finally brought some fireworks to a very complacent market.   The S&P 500 had not had a 1% move in 74 days until Wednesday’s drawdown.

Rising yields were nailed as the culprit but months of rallying eventually require some sort of shake out – whatever the catalyst.  Wednesday’s sell off was the worst day for the S&P 500 since February and the worst for the NASDAQ since June 2016.

The market losses are “a reaction from investors finally realizing we are in a higher interest-rate environment, and given the elevated level of stocks, market participants were likely looking for a reason to sell,” said Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist for Allianz Investment Management. “Higher interest rates typically bring on tighter ...



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ValueWalk

Vilas Fund Up 55% In Q3; 3Q18 Letter: A Bull Market In Bearish Forecasts

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The Vilas Fund, LP letter for the third quarter ended September 30, 2018; titled, “A Bull Market in Bearish Forecasts.”

Ever since the financial crisis, there has been a huge fascination with predictions of the next “big crash” right around the next corner. Whether it is Greece, Italy, Chinese debt, the “overvalued” stock market, the Shiller Ratio, Puerto Rico, underfunded pensions in Illinois and New Jersey, the Fed (both for QE a few years ago and now for removing QE), rising interest rates, Federal budget deficits, peaking profit margins, etc...



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Members' Corner

Why obvious lies still make good propaganda

 

This is very good; it's about "firehosing", a type of propaganda, and how it works.

Why obvious lies still make good propaganda

A 2016 report described Russian propaganda as:
• high in volume
• rapid, continuous and repetitive
• having no commitment to objective reality
• lacking consistency

...

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Biotech

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Breast cancer type 1 (BRCA1) is a human tumor suppressor gene, found in all humans. Its protein, also called by the synonym BRCA1, is responsible for repairing DNA. ibreakstock/Shutterstock.com

By Jay Shendure, University of Washington; Greg Findlay, ...



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Mapping The Market

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

Via Jean-Luc:

Famed investor reflecting on his mistakes:

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

One that stands out for me:

Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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