Posts Tagged ‘Ebola’

Fearful Friday – Ebola in NYC Spooks the Markets

SPY  5  MINUTEHalloween is just around the corner

Already the monsters are coming out with two of NY's three papers already maxing out their headline fonts to scream EBOLA!!! to people on their way to work. As I noted to our Member in this morning's Alert (tweeted out too!) that made for easy shorts on the Futures:

Based on Ebola and the upcoming stress tests, I'd have to guess a sell-off is coming today.  Shorting /ES at 1,940 (tight stops, of course) and the Dow (/YM) at 16,600 are a lot safer than shorting /TF at 1,100 but all good lines to use and watch.  /NQ already failed 4,000.  

SPX WEEKLYIt's 7:54 and already the Egg McMuffins are paid for on nice drops off those levels and we'll take quick profits and run and hopefully get a chance to re-enter as I don't see this day going well.  

We're back to short in our Short-Term Porfolio but less aggressively so than last weekend as we can't ignore the underlying 3.5% gains our indexes have put up this week. 

As usual, the Dollar is being knocked down to support the Futures but it's not helping oil much ($81.24) so far.  Gold, however, bounced back to $1,233 and silver (/SI) went over our long line at $17.25 (very tight stops below).  Gasoline (/RB) was rejected at $2.20 – another sign that the underlying economy is much weaker than these indexes would have you believe.

In fact, GS reports today that China has shut 20% of it's Iron Ore production in the face of an inventory glus and prices dropping 40% this year.  The market is in the midst of a transition without precedent in recent commodity history as supply jumps and higher-cost mines shut, according to Macquarie Group Ltd. HSBC Holdings Plc, which cut its price forecasts this week, sees a 30 percent slump in Chinese output next year.  

“The market currently looks like a game of chicken where no player has blinked,” HSBC said. “The major producers are likely to


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Flip Floppin’ Friday – Futures Fly as Fear Fades

obama hugs nurseNothing came of yesterday's Ebola hearings

Here's a picture of President Obama hugging it out with one of the nurses that treated one of the Ebola patients – a strong image for the people as calmer voices begin to prevail – on that front at least.

Markets were also boosted by dovish talk from the usually hawkish Jimmy Bullard, of the St. Louis Fed, who said the Fed should consider delaying plans to end its bond-buying program at the end of this month to halt a decline in expected inflation.  This is what it sounds like when Doves cry at the Fed and, like Prince's mother, the markets are never satisfied but, for this morning at least – we're taking back those weak bounce levels that we told you we'd take back by Friday.  

“The recovery from the lows after Bullard spoke yesterday is another reminder how addicted markets still are to liquidity,” said Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid.  “The Fed can certainly help markets but perhaps we really need the ECB to step up a gear for a true recovery,” he added.

SPY DAILYStill, manipulated or not, this gives us two nice reversal days on strong volume and we couldn't be happier as we flipped very bullish in our Short-Term Portfolio and should be able to take full advantage of this rapid recovery.  

Whether or not we maintain that bullish stance into the weekend depends on how our bounce levels hold up today (see Tuesday morning's post for our amazingly accurate predictions of the week's action).  

Keep that in mind when I tell you there is nothing particularly bullish about hitting the weak bounce on the Friday of a drop week – it's merely better than the alternative of FAILING to make those weak bounce lines.  That would have been BAD!!!  Meanwhile, those of you who took our FREE Trade Idea from yesterday's morning post to go long the Russell at 1,050 (the same line we were watching on Tuesday) are now sitting on $4,000 PER CONTRACT gains and I do so hope you are not greedy and set your stops at the 1,090 line.  


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Weakening Wednesday – Market Picture Begins to Look Grim

This is not pretty.

As you can see on our Big Chart, we've failed the 50 dma on the S&P, Nasdaq, NYSE and Russell and the Russell failed its 200 dma long ago.  We're still waiting for the Dow to cross below 16,940 and confirm the carnage but we made those bets long ago with our DXD Oct $24 calls, which are now 0.70 (up 55%) from our 0.45 entry back on 9/18.

In fact, we already took 1/2 of those calls off the table at 0.85 last week so, essentially, the remainder is a free put option on the Dow for the next three weeks – with DXD at $24.45, so we gain every penny from here on up as the Dow falls.  

That's what hedges are supposed to do, of course.  We discussed that in yesterday's Live Trading Webinar, where we also demonstrated a live Futures trade on the Russell (/TF Futures) that made $500 on the 2:30 bounce.  That bounce was very easy to predict because THE MARKET IS MANIPULATED and all we had to do was wait for the same fake spike that we get at the end of every quarter, courtesy of the Fed and their fellow Banksters:

SPY  5  MINUTEWhat's scary about yesterday's flood of money ($230Bn in two days) wasn't just the size of the pump job, but the ineffectiveness of it.  The volume was still anemic and declining shares outpaced advancing shares by almost 2:1 in yesterday's "mixed" trading.  

In reality, it wasn't mixed at all as big traders took advantage of every penny that moved into the market as they told their brokers to sell, SELL!!!

Still, it's not the end of the World just yet – only close to it, and we can still turn this puppy around by holding the line on the Dow as well as Russell 1,100 and Nasdaq 4,500.  This market has been amazingly resiliant in 2014 so we're not going to be complacently bearish the same way we (thank goodness) did not let ourselves get complacently bullish this summer.  


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Kimble Charting Solutions

Aussie Dollar Suggesting Much Higher Commodities And Yields On The Way???

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is the Aussie Dollar about to jump higher and signal that Commodities and interest rates are about to do the same? Possible!

This chart looks at the Aussie Dollar on a monthly basis over the past 16-years.

The AU$ created a bottoming pattern over several months in late 2008/early 2009 at (1). While creating the bottom, a couple of monthly bullish reversal patterns formed. What did commodities and yields do following the bottoming process in the AU$? Both were creating bottoms as well!

The 9-year decline in the AU$ has it testing triple support a...



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Zero Hedge

2020 Hurricane Season Begins - Next Tropical Depression Could Form In Days

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on Monday. A tropical depression or storm is expected to form in the western Gulf of Mexico later this week. 

The Weather Channel is monitoring an area in the tropics that is currently experiencing a disturbance near the Guatemala-Yucatan border.

Already, Arthur and Bertha were two pre-season storms, making this the sixth Atlantic hurricane...



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The Technical Traders

Comparing Bitcoin and Ether During the Coronavirus Pandemic

Courtesy of Technical Traders

You don’t need a crystal ball — or an economics degree — to notice the pandemic is having a historic impact on the stock market and commodities.

Gold initially went down (like all assets) in the mid-March meltdown, but is up 14% YTD. Oil bid negative, for the first time ever, as May futures traders dumped contracts to avoid taking delivery amid a lack of storage. It has since rebounded partially due to production cuts and the lifting of lockdowns. Orange juice is up over 26% YTD on adverse weather than impacted Brazil’s crop and increased consumer demand.

The most surpris...



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Phil's Favorites

Police officers accused of brutal violence often have a history of complaints by citizens

 

Police officers accused of brutal violence often have a history of complaints by citizens

Police work to keep demonstrators back during a protest in Lafayette Square Park on May 30, 2020 in Washington, D.C. Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images

Courtesy of Jill McCorkel, Villanova University

As protests against police violence and racism continue in cities throughout the U.S., the public is learning that several of the officer...



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ValueWalk

Strategy Chain Interviews ValueWalk CEO And Founder Jacob Wolinsky

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Thank you to Michael Robertson of The Strategy Chain podcast for interviewing me. See below for the episode timestamps and the full audio. TX – Jacob Wolinsky

Jacob Wolinsky worked in investing and financial journalism before founding ValueWalk, a site that curates information about investing, hedge funds, asset management, and the broader world of finance. We explore Jacob’s journey as an investor and an entrepreneur. This episode was a real treat for me because our guest was (and continues to be) instrumental to my growth as a value investor. Jacob gave us a ton ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Antibody injections could fight COVID-19 infections - an infectious disease expert explains the prospects

 

Antibody injections could fight COVID-19 infections – an infectious disease expert explains the prospects

Antibodies (pink) attacking a virus particle (blue). STEVEN MCDOWELL/SCIENCE PHOTO LIBRARY

Courtesy of Dimiter Stanchev Dimitrov, University of Pittsburgh

Antibodies are part of us – literally.

We have billions of them in our bodies with a combined weight of about 100 grams, or about the weight of a bar of soap. If there are so many antibodies inside our b...



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Chart School

Silver volume says something is near boiling point

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Fundamentals are important, but they must show up in the chart. And when they do and if they may matter, it is a good sign if price and volume waves show a change of character.

The Point and Figure chart below is readtheticker.com version of PnF chart format, it is designed to highlight price and volume waves clearly (notice the Volume Hills chart).

Silver ETF volume is screaming at us! The price volatility along with volume tells us those who have not cared, are starting to, those who are wrong are adjusting, and those who are correct are loading up. Soon the kettle will blow and the price of silver will be over $20. 

Normally silver suffers in a recession, maybe this time with trillions of paper money being creat...

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Lee's Free Thinking

US Southern States COVID19 Cases - Let's Give Credit Where Due

 

US Southern States COVID19 Cases – Let’s Give Credit Where Due

Courtesy of  

The number of new COVID 19 cases has been falling in the Northeast, but the South is not having the same experience. The number of new cases per day in each Southern state has been rangebound for the past month.

And that’s assuming that the numbers haven’t been manipulated. We know that in Georgia’s case at least, they have been. And there are suspicions about Florida as well, as the State now engages in a smear campaign against the fired employee who built its much praised COVID19 database and dashboar...



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Digital Currencies

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

 

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

App-etising? LDprod

Courtesy of Michael Rogerson, University of Bath and Glenn Parry, University of Surrey

Food supply chains were vulnerable long before the coronavirus pandemic. Recent scandals have ranged from modern slavery ...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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