‘Double-Dips Are Not as Infrequent as You Might Think’
by ilene - July 12th, 2010 4:16 am
‘Double-Dips Are Not as Infrequent as You Might Think’
Courtesy of Michael Panzner at Financial Armageddon
Morgan Stanley’s Stephen Roach is the featured guest on the Wall Street Journal’s Big Interview, and unlike many of his peers, he relies on facts rather than fantasy in formulating his economic outlook. Given what you and I already know about the reality on the ground, it’s no surprise to find that Mr. Roach is less than sanguine about where things stand:
WSJ: You’ve been warning of a disappointing U.S. recovery, so I’d like to ask you right off the bat: Just how likely do you see the prospects of a double-dip kind of event?
Roach: I give it a higher probability than most — maybe 40% at some point over the next year. We have a weak recovery, weak labor market, weak consumer purchasing power, and a consumer — 70% of the economy — that is still massively overextended in terms of debt; unprepared in terms of savings; and unable to rely to rely on property and credit bubbles to support consumption. So, if you have a disappointing consumer and any kind of an unexpected shock, you can go down again.
Here is the full interview:
ROBERT SHILLER DISCUSSES THE NEGATIVE PSYCHOLOGY OF THE MARKET
by ilene - June 30th, 2010 2:41 pm
ROBERT SHILLER DISCUSSES THE NEGATIVE PSYCHOLOGY OF THE MARKET
Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist
Some really interesting thoughts by Robert Shiller on the psychology of the markets and how negative psychology is beginning to compound, creating a snowball effect. Mr. Shiller is increasingly concerned about the economic outlook and the potential that we are talking ourselves off the edge of the cliff: