Posts Tagged ‘EFSF’

TGI EFSF!

Wow, what a week!  

What a month in fact.  Another good day and our 10% lines will be back in play on the big chart.  As I said on Tuesday morning, we were looking to take back the +5% on the announcement of the EFSF and I had made our bullish position pretty clear the day before on BNN, but I didn’t expect us to hit it THE NEXT DAY.

That’s what we like to call "too far, too fast" and it’s a very dangerous way to rally the markets.  Back on September 29th in "Thrill-Ride Thursday – Finding Bottom" I laid out our bullish case when it was VERY unpopular saying:  

The hardest thing about range trading is following Warren Buffett’s advice to "Be greedy when others are fearful and be fearful when others are greedy."  Yesterday we discussed the importance of ignoring the noise of the rumor mill and focusing on the FACTS as we make our investing decisions.   With shorter-term TRADING – we have to pay a bit more attention to the technicals but it’s all about taking small profits over and over again. 

I had spent the week before laying out my case for why Greece did not matter anywhere near as much as people thought but the most important point I made (that is back to being relevant today) was this:  

I spent last week laying the foundation for why we should not be freaking out about Greece but one thing I have learned is you can’t preach Fundamentals to TA people (or use logic on Conservatives) – the words just wash over them like  the dog in this Farside cartoon… As I said yesterday (the same 3:10 comment to Members):  "I’d rather play the Bull side until the bears prove their case because the absence of constant, relentless bad news is likely to cause a rally." 

Germany had approved the expansion of the EFSF that day (September 29th) by a vote of 523 to 85 – not even remotely close despite the fact that the MSM had been telling us the Germans would NEVER go…
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Thursday Fix – Victory In Our Time!

You ask, What is our aim? I can answer with one word: Victory—victory at all costs, victory in spite of all terror, victory however long and hard the road may be; for without victory there is no survival. – Winston Churchill 

I do HAVE to say "I told you so!"  

When I was interviewed on Monday and they asked why I’m bullish, I replied that "stimulus trumps everything" and that’s what we’ve been playing for, especially in our new White Christmas Portfolio, which will be off to a rockin’ start with the aggressive upside trades that I not only mentioned in yesterday’s post - which made easy fills yesterday morning, as the markets shook out the last of the weak hands on yet another rumor-driven dip.  

We got our daily double on the AGQ calls, as expected and SSO fell all the way to $44.20 (150% profit on that trade if they finish Friday above $45) while FAS dropped $13.35 and that spread will be good for a 2,100% gain if FAS can get back to and hold $14 – which should be a snap thanks to our friends at the EU.  

In the morning Alert to Members, I put up this cute little Gif to illustrate the day’s action and it was a real roller-coaster day but we stayed generally bullish, taking quick profits off our morning bear plays on DIA and USO.  We added a bullish trade ideas for AMZN (complex spread), TNA (short Nov $40 puts at $3.60) but that was it for the day because my comment to Members at 11:01 was: "Dollar rejected at 76.80 – still hope for the bulls!"  

Well, those bulls were us and we already had our bets in place from last week, when things were cheaper so there was nothing to do but watch as the markets took off like a rocket from that point forward.  Heck, we were so bullish we even sold NFLX puts (Nov $67.50 puts for $3) as a bullish offset to a DXD hedge (which we’ll pull the bottom of today).   On Monday we had picked up bullish trades on AAPL and GLW and I mentioned EWG in Friday’s post (those should be looking good this morning!) as well as our plays to go long in the Russell Futures at…
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