Posts Tagged ‘EMM’

Options Combo Trade Bullish On Emerging Markets ETF

Shares in the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (Ticker: EEM) are up more than 15% since early February, when shares in the ETF touched $37.05 and the lowest level of 2014. EEM shares are on the rise today too, up 0.35% on the session at $42.92 as of 11:30 a.m. ET. A large options combination trade on the EEM this morning looks for the price of the underlying to continue to march higher during the second half of the year.

One options market participant appears to have sold 15,000 of the Dec 35.0 strike calls at a premium of $0.55 each in order to partially offset the cost of buying the Dec 44/48/52 call butterfly spread. All told, the four-legged trade cost a net $0.30 per contract and positions the strategist to reap maximum possible gains of $3.70 per contract in the event that EEM shares surge 12% during the back-half of 2014 to hit $48.00 and the highest level since July of 2011 by expiration in December of this year.

Selling the Dec 35.0 strike puts reduces the cost of establishing the bullish view on the EEM, but implies the risk of potentially having 1.5 million shares of the underlying delivered to the seller at the striking price if the emerging markets ETF surrenders recent gains (and then some) to dip below $35.00 at expiration. Meanwhile, to the upside, risk of loss is limited to the premium paid on the strategy, or $0.30 per contract. Profits start accruing on the call ‘fly if shares rally above a breakeven share price of $44.30 and max out with the underlying at $48.00. In the event that shares continue to rally above $48.00, profits shrink to zero at the upper breakeven point of $51.70 and give way to a maximum loss of $0.30 per contract at any share price above $52.00.

Chart – EEM shares up in 2014, Dec 44/48/52 call ‘fly eyes further upside


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Monday Market Movement – Down for a Change

Wheeeeeee!

What a ride we're getting (see Bespoke Charts).  We discussed the fun that led up to this drop on Friday, so no need to rehash it here.  Over the weekend, Philstockworld reviewed "This Month in Fascism" and I put up a post outlining "Capitalism's End Game" where we had some nice additional discussion in that post's Member Chat so read that an you're all up to speed.  

That brings us to what is happening now.  There was little news this weekend other than inflation accelerating in China, with their CPI hitting 3.6% in March vs 3.3% expected but that number is BS anyway as food alone is up 7.5%.  For the Quarter, the CPI was up 3.8% overall and China's target for the year is 4% so this effectively takes stimulus action off the table for now.  The ONLY thing keeping CPI lower is the now-steady price of housing, which is down at 2% but that's still 2% higher than prices the Government has already decided the people can no longer afford.  

China is clearly slowing down but STILL having inflation.  The WSJ points out that China's iron-ore demand is down and other emerging-market economies also appear to be losing steam with India's growth down to 6.1% and Brazil down to 3% with Russia having almost no growth at all.  So much for the BRICs…  "Year-to-date returns have been quite deceptive. All that really happened in 2012 is a typically powerful bear-market bounce off 2011 lows," said Michael Shaoul, chairman of Marketfield Asset Management.   

We've been hanging onto long-term short EDZ positions in anticipation of a sell-off in the emerging markets and, despite $25.6Bn of net inflows in Q1 (the most since 2006), EEM has gone nowhere since the end of January, which is funny, since only $1.7Bn flowed into the US stock market in Q1 yet our indexes are up 10% – but that's a different article!

Anyway, so EDZ is still at $12.79 and if we figure we get a 10% pullback in the Emerging Markets then EDZ pops 30% to $16.62 and you can buy the May $14/16 bull call spread for .40 with a 400% upside at $16 and we used to…
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Zero Hedge

"There's No Way Out": Johnson Slams "Undemocratic" Irish Backstop In Letter To European Council

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson as barely been in office a month, and he's already convinced some Britons that he's ready to take the UK out of the EU, with or without an interim trade deal to soften the blow.

On the other side of the Atlantic, President Trump has pledged to cobble together a trade deal to help bolster Johnson's popularity should he need to call for an early general election to try and bolster his party's mandate (the Tories and their coalition control the Commons by one measly vote).  This past week, Johnson has generated headlin...



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Phil's Favorites

Aramco Asks Banks To Submit Proposals For Role In Mega IPO (Again)

Courtesy of Julianne Geiger, OilPrice.com

The Aramco IPO is one step closer to reality, with Saudi Arabia’s state-run oil company seeking proposals from banks who wish to fulfill various roles in the much-anticipated IPO, Reuters sources said on Monday.

The requests for proposals were sent a few days ago, the sources said. Saudi Aramco declined to comment on the development.

Aramco’s official request that banks submit proposals is a positive development for the IPO, although even with banks handwringing with anticipation, the mega IPO has an uphill battle ahead.

Aramco’s Senior VP of Finance, Khalid al-Dabbagh, said last week that it w...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Watch Out Bears! Fed POMO Is Back!

Courtesy of Lee Adler

That’s right. The Fed is doing POMO again.  POMO means Permanent Open Market Operations. It’s a fancy way of saying that the Fed is buying Treasuries, pumping money into the financial markets.

Over the past 6 days, the Fed has bought $8.6 billion in T-bills and coupons. These are the first regular Fed POMO Treasury operations since the Fed ended outright QE in 2014.

Who is the Fed buying those Treasuries from?

The Primary Dealers. Who are the Primary Dealers?  I’ll let the New York Fed tell you:

Primary dealers are trading counterparties of the New York Fed in its implementation of monetary policy. They are also expected to make markets for the New York Fed on behalf of its official accountholders as needed, and to bid on a ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Steel About To Breakdown And Send Bearish Economic Message?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is the Steel Industry suggesting that a recession is nearing? In my humble opinion, the jury is still out on this one.

This chart from Marketsmith.com takes a look at the patterns of Steel ETF (SLX).

SLX has spent the majority of the past 3-years inside of trading range (1). The persistent decline over the past year has it testing the bottom of this trading range at (2).

The weakness over the past year has it below long-term moving averages as its relative strength r...



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The Technical Traders

Fed Too Late To Prevent A Housing Market Crash?

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Real Estate is one of the biggest purchases anyone will make in their lifetime.  It can account for 30x to 300x one’s annual income and take over 30 years to pay off.  After you’re done paying for your property, now you have to keep paying to maintain it and to support the property taxes to keep it.  What has happened to the US Real Estate market since the 2008-09 global credit market collapse and is the US Fed behind the curve?

Case-Shiller Home Price Index

One of the most common indicators used to measure national housing affordability and price trend is the Case-Shiller Home Price Index.  In this chart, we are displaying the Case-Shiller National Home ...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Tuesday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • The Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index for the latest week is schedule for release at 8:55 a.m. ET.
  • San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly is set to speak at 4:30 p.m. ET.
  • Federal Reserve Board of Governors Vice Chairman for Supervision Randal Quarles will speak in Salt Lake City, Utah at 6:00 p.m. ET.

Posted-In: Economic DataNews Economics ...



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Chart School

Bitcoin 2019 fractal with Gold 2013

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Funny how price action patterns repeat, double tops, head and shoulders. These are simply market fractals of supply and demand.

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Ref: US Crypto Holders Only Have a Few Days to Reply to the IRS 6173 Letter

Today's news from the US IRS has been blamed for the recent price slump, yet the bitcoin fractal like the gold fractal suggest the market players have set bitcoin up for a slump to $9000 USD long before the IRS news hit the wire.

Get the impression some market players missed out on the b...

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Digital Currencies

New Zealand Becomes 1st Country To Legalize Payment Of Salaries In Crypto

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have been on a persistent upswing this year, but they're still pretty volatile. But during a time when even some of the most developed economies in the word are watching their currencies bounce around like the Argentine peso (just take a look at a six-month chart for GBPUSD), New Zealand has decided to take the plunge and become the first country to legalize payment in bitcoin, the FT reports.

The ruling by New Zealand’s tax authority allows salaries and wages to b...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Biotech

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing - but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

Reminder: We're is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing – but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

A telomere age test kit from Telomere Diagnostics Inc. and saliva. collection kit from 23andMe. Anna Hoychuk/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Patricia Opresko, University of Pittsburgh and Elise Fouquerel, ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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