Posts Tagged ‘EPI’

Monday Market Movement – Waiting on the Fed

9-12-2014 4-25-40 PM bullsMore bad news today.  

China's Industrial Output is at its lowest level since the 2008 crash and Hong Kong stocks dropped 1%, the 7th consecutive down day over there and the Royal Economists at the Bank of Scotland slashed their forecast for China as worries rise that the world's second-largest economy is headed for another slowdown.  Too bad for them, they are just catching up to what we told you a month ago, on 8/18, when I said in the morning post:

Chinese Banks' Loan-Loss Reserves have fallen to the the lowest levels in 3 years — We shorted India last week (EPI) and now FXI has got my mouth watering as a potentially good short.  I'd feel better about taking up a short on FXI at $45, not $42 but the Jan $42/38 bear put spread is just $1.80 on the $4 spread and that makes it very interesting as it pays 122% on a less than 10% decline in the Chinese markets – a nice way to hedge your bullish China bets!  

As we expected, there was a little more gas in the tank but now we're right back on track as the magical China story begins to show its age.  The benchmark index for the Asian region, the MSCI All Countries Asia Ex-Japan in U.S. dollar terms, is down 2.2% since reaching the year's high earlier this month.  Saturday's weak economic data—including news that August electricity output fell 2.2%—suggest that earlier government stimulus measures lack staying power.

FXE WEEKLY"The economy is losing steam very quickly in August," said Macquarie Group economist Larry Hu. "Previously when they stimulated the economy, private companies followed, leading to a restocking cycle. But this time, the private sector is so cautious."  "The IP number is a surprise because Premier Li talked in Tianjin about a quite stable situation," said Mizuho economist Shen Jianguang. "I think, very soon, they're reaching a moment of truth. If they don't ease, the economic deceleration will come much faster."…
continue reading


Tags: , , , , , , , , ,




Thrilling Thursday – Consumers Still Unemployed, but Shopping!

The MSM is so happy about the February Monster Employment Index!

They’ll tell you it’s up 10 points from January without mentioning that January was the worst month of the past 12 and, in reality, we are up just 2 points from last February when the shockingly poor data we were seeing sent the S&P all the way to 666 the next month.  Today though, it is considered a reason to rally as people watching the MSM will believe anything the talking heads tell them because they don’t get shown the actual results and they trust their talking heads to have checked the facts carefully, rather than make them up, which is pretty much what they do.

We discussed the shenanigans of the ADP report in yesterday’s post and I did warn you that it was a fake rally based on happy headlines papering over poor data.  As we expected, the market giddiness persisted until about 11:30 and then reality began to bite back.  This was FANTASTIC for us as we were playing bearish into the rally but it’s very scary to hold bearish positions overnight but there’s no reason to hold options overnight when you pick up plays like our 9:54 Alert play on the DIA $103 puts, which averaged in at .77, hit $1 (up 30%) at 2:45 and finished the day at .94 (up 22%).  You HAVE to learn to be satisfied with making 20% on day trades and cashing back out.  Cash is flexible – overnight positions are not…  In fact, since we did cash out yesterday, I was able to send out an overnight Alert to Members with a short on the oil Futures as they ran up to 80.50 which was good for a quick victory and then another this morning at $81, which is already up .30 with a .06 trailing stop (futures pay $10 per penny per contract so lots of fun for morning, pre-market trading!). 

We went longer on our oil and gold shorts (in yesterday’s post it was GLL Apr $9 calls at .65) because we don’t expect them to resolve quickly but the chart on the left illustrates why we also firmly believe that this commodity rally is BS.  This is a chart of the Employment to Population Ratio for Men 25-54 Years Old since WWII.  Kind of puts a 2% year over year rise in the Monster Employment Index into perspective doesn’t it?  20% of the men in the United…
continue reading


Tags: , , , , , , , , ,




Global Chart Reveiw Shows Key Inflection Point

Chart Review by Michael Clark

“By a continuing process of inflation, government can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens.”

    -- John Maynard Keynes

SO, IS THIS FINALLY THE 'REAL' CORRECTION?

What a week it was.  The Bears gave the Bulls some payback.  Obama got a wake-up call.  And the banks got a well-deserved scare (and we hope they will get a well-deserved hair cut).

The markets reacted, as one might expect, with selling.  Actually, the selling began before the Massachusetts election and before Obama sent a shot across the Goldman Sach's bow.  Last week Intel announced surprisingly strong earnings; and the stock started up and then sank.  For the past half-year investor behavior had been the reverse: a buying spree for any stock that did not lose as much as it might have — beating 'Street expectations' that had been dumbed down over and over again during a quarter so that the company could report 'surprising' strength.  Suddenly, now, even good earnings are being greeted with selling.  Then came Massachusetts — wasn't that a Bee Gees' song?
 

All the lights went out in Massachusetts

Anyway, readers want to know where the markets stand today, after the sell-off this week.  My view of it — my 'view', not my gut-feeling — is that we are, so far, merely correcting from an over-extended rally.  This rally has been bizarre, to say the least.  This has been a 'fear rally' — usually the 'fear' side of the equation is when selling comes in, 'greed' driving the expansion.  But fear of systemic failure has driven this rally; and Ben Bernannke has been the captain sailing the 'Boat of Fear',   Ben's logic — that more debt will solve the insolvency crisis — has a shadow side, the logic that a collapse in stock prices will result in systemic failure, international chaos, revolution, repression…made him believe that preservation of the status quo was requiired, at any price.  A 'make-believe' recovery could be jump-started, perhaps, if the Fed could just stimulate (and simulate) another asset-bubble.  After all – that is how his mentor and predecessor, Alan Greenspan, had become the darling of the coctail party crowd, leading member of Time Magazine's 'Committee to Save the World';
continue reading


Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,




 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Supreme Court Saves Obamacare Again After GOP Challenge Rejected

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

The Supreme Court on Thursday rejected a GOP challenge to Obamacare, upholding the Affordable Care Act for the third time.

In a 7-2 decision, the Court found that Texas and 17 other states lack legal standing to sue, as they had not suffered a direct injury, according to the New York Times.

The Justices did not touch on the larger issues in the case, however, namely whether the majority of Obama'...



more from Tyler

Phil's Favorites

Justice Department's Investigation of Dodgy Archegos-Style Accounts at the Wall Street Mega Banks Is Likely the Cause of Plunge in Trading Revenues

Courtesy of Pam Martens

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: June 17, 2021 ~

On May 26 Bloomberg News reported that the U.S. Department of Justice had opened an investigation into Archegos Capital Management and its bank lenders. Archegos is the family office hedge fund that had blown up in late March, causing a total of more than $10 billion in losses to mega banks including Credit Suisse, UBS, Morgan Stanley and others.

Archegos had obtained leverag...



more from Ilene

Chart School

Australia to enter a very sad period - Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Lets add some dates to the bearish forecast of the ASX200.

Previous post on the subject and a more detailed Ewave construction can be found here.

SHORT ANSWER

The vertical light red shaded area (chart 1) is the T Theory forecast for the final price top (end of B wave). This period is some where between Nov 2021 and July 2022. This zone is the confluence of equal time cycles as presented on the chart. Notice how this note refers to a extreme price top and not a crash or bear market starting date. Price can consolidate for some time after a extreme high is posted. 


...

more from Chart School

Politics

The Ukraine Fallacies (with Victor Rud)

 

The Ukraine Fallacies (with Victor Rud)

Americans are confused about the history of Ukraine. That's just how Russia wants it.

Courtesy of Greg Olear, at PREVAIL

Greg is the author of Dirty Rubles: An Introduction to Trump/Russia 

...

more from Politics

Biotech/COVID-19

The FDA's big gamble on the new Alzheimer's drug

 

The FDA's big gamble on the new Alzheimer's drug

Do the benefits of approving a drug before confirming it works outweigh the potential costs? monkeybusinessimages/iStock via Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of C. Michael White, University of Connecticut

The Food and Drug Administration set off a firestorm of debate when it approved a new drug, aducanumab, for Alzheimer’s disease v...



more from Biotech/COVID-19

Promotions

Live Webinar with Phil on Option Strategies

 

June is TD Bank's Option Education Month, and today (Thursday, June 10) at 1 pm EST, Phil will speak with host Bryan Rogers about selling options and various option strategies that we use here at Phil's Stock World. Don't miss this event!

Click here to register for TD's live webinar with Phil.

 

...

more from Promotions

Digital Currencies

Crypto: Congress Dawdles as $1.7 Trillion Con-Game Goes Unregulated, Threatening Reputation of U.S. Markets

Courtesy of Pam Martens

If you want to get your hair cut outside of your home in the United States, the job has to be done by a licensed worker at a regulated business. The same thing applies to plumbers, electricians, home inspectors, real estate and insurance agents. They all require a license and are subject to regulatory scrutiny.

Likewise, commodities like corn, sugar, wheat, lumber and oil are all traded on regulated exchanges which are overseen by a federal regulator.

But, for reasons that have yet to be explained to the American people, when it comes to the $1.7 trillion cryptocurrency market – which is effectively a con-g...



more from Bitcoin

Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



more from Kimble C.S.

ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



more from ValueWalk

Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



more from M.T.M.

The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



more from Tech. Traders

Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



more from Lee

Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.