Posts Tagged ‘equities market’

IS THE “DEATH CROSS” A USEFUL INDICATOR?

IS THE “DEATH CROSS” A USEFUL INDICATOR?

Skull

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

At the March highs we were talking about death crosses.  No, not death crosses in the S&P, but the death cross in the one equity index that has proven to be even remotely leading over the course of the last 5 years – China. Today, everyone and their mother is chattering about the death cross in the S&P 500.  Is it of any use?  Jeff Kleintop at LPL says it’s nonsense:

“While much is made of the “death cross” of the S&P 500 50-day moving average falling below the 200-day, it has actually been a buying signal during these periods in the past. A good example of this took place in 2004 when during the soft spot in the recovery the 50-day crossed below the 200-day on August 17, 2004, just as the S&P 500 had completed the low point of its soft spot pullback and embarked upon a double-digit percent gain over the next three months.”

Pierre Lapointe, a macro strategist at Brockhouse Cooper agrees:

“The death cross IS nonsense. They’re no better than a flip of a coin to predict future returns. Check out these odds: Since 1970, only 10 of the 21 occurrences actually resulted in a market pullback a month after the death cross. Three months later, the market was down only 43% of the time. With odds like this, don’t short the market. Go to a casino — you’ll have more fun.”

The S&P 500 and the U.S. equity market has not proven to be a leading indicator of much in recent years.  Many even question its discounting capabilities at all.  The moral of this story?  Don’t wait until after a 15% decline in equities to jump on some technical analysis bandwagon.  Especially one from an index that has proven to be a leading indicator of just about nothing. 


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WHY THE GOOD JOBS REPORT COULD BE BAD NEWS FOR 2010

WHY THE GOOD JOBS REPORT COULD BE BAD NEWS FOR 2010

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Investors are likely to be increasingly concerned about rate increases over the coming months due to the much better than expected non-farm payrolls report.  Using the last few recessions as a reference point it is likely that equity gains could become increasingly difficult to come by as the Fed is pressured to remove their accommodative stance and other programs are wound down.

Teun Draaisma at Morgan Stanley recently noted this in his “tightening checklist”.   I would expect an upgrade across the checklist.  As we expected job creation is certain to begin by Q1 and Fed language should begin to change dramatically.

 WHY THE GOOD JOBS REPORT COULD BE BAD NEWS FOR 2010

Despite higher rates coming shortly, MS expects the rally to continue in the near-term.  I can’t disagree with this outlook.  Stocks are very buoyant heading into Christmas and it’s unlikely that this report will force the Fed’s hand immediately.  Like Draaisma, I believe the rally could move higher into year-end based on this optimism, but could then begin to sputter out as 2010 becomes a year of higher rates and transition into an economy without a government crutch.  MS analysts report:

We expect the sweet spot to last a bit longer. The cyclical bull market has some further to run, in our view.  We expect 20%+ earnings growth in 2010, equity valuations are still attractive versus rates, and sentiment is not ultra-bullish yet. We prefer equities to fixed income, and we expect a further 9% upside to reach our 1200 bull case target for MSCI Europe based on the mid-cycle multiple on mid-cycle earnings of 15x 12% ROE.

Lessons from past tightening cycles. The start of tightening phases tends to lead to some indigestion and a defensive rotation in equity markets, for two quarters or more. The 1994 and 2004 episodes led to a 16% and 8% fall in MSCI Europe over eight and five months. Sector performance was defensive, but Oil and Materials outperformed, too. In the aftermath of secular bear markets tightening phases have been more severe, with equities falling on average 25% over 13 months.

Draaisma notes that it’s silly trying to jump on the back end of a 70% rally in an attempt to time the final leg up.  As we wrote earlier this week:

But Draaisma


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Phil's Favorites

American influence could take the hit as Putin, Zelenskiy try to make peace in Donbass

 

American influence could take the hit as Putin, Zelenskiy try to make peace in Donbass

Zelenskiy is facing a tough meeting with Russia’s Putin on Dec. 9. Ukrainian Presidential Press Office via AP

Courtesy of Erik C. Nisbet, The Ohio State University and Olga Kamenchuk, The Ohio State University

President Vladimir Putin of Russia and his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, are set ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold Miners Indicator Attempting Multi-Year Breakout, Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Are Gold Mining stocks about to be sent a bullish signal they haven’t received in years? Possible says Joe Friday.

This chart looks at the Senior Miner/Junior miner (GDXJ/GDX) ratio over the past few years. Historically when the ratio is heading up, miners tend to do very well.

The ratio has created a series of lower highs just below the falling line (1), since the summer of 2016. The ratio is currently testing the strong falling resistance line and the June 2019 highs at (2).

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am; If the ratio succeeds in a double breakout at (2), it sends miners a long-awaited bullish message.

...

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Zero Hedge

4 Dead After Two Robbers Hijack UPS Van, Ending In Epic Gun Battle On Florida Highway 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Four people have been confirmed dead after a UPS truck was hijacked by two suspects following a robbery attempt of a jewelry store on South Florida's Miracle Mile Thursday, reported CBS Miami.

The suspects led police on a two-county rush-hour chase through Miami and ended in a hail of gunfire on Miramar Parkway and Flamingo Road in Miramar.

The incident began around 4 pm Thursday in Miami-Dade County, where two people attempted to rob a jewelry store on the Miracle Mile.

The suspects exchanged gu...



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Insider Scoop

7 Healthcare Stocks Moving In Friday's Pre-Market Session

Courtesy of Benzinga

Gainers
  • Sierra Oncology, Inc. (NASDAQ: SRRA) shares increased by 43.3% to $0.55 during Friday's pre-market session. The market cap stands at $23.1 million. The most recent rating by Oppenheimer, on December 06, is at Outperform, with a price target of $1.20.
  • Cassava Sciences, Inc. (NASDAQ: SAVA) stock moved upwards by 40.6% to $2.53. The market value of their outstanding shares is at $20.6 million.
  • Puma Biotechnology, Inc. (NASDAQ: PBYI) stock increased by 5.9% to...


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Lee's Free Thinking

Chart Shows the Fed Ramping Up Not QE - Funding Almost All Treasury Issuance

 

Chart Shows the Fed Ramping Up Not QE – Funding Almost All Treasury Issuance

Courtesy of Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner 

The Fed is ramping up “Not QE” .

The Fed bought $2.2 billion in notes today in its POMO, “not QE,” operations. Actually $2.15 billion because they sold back a whole $50 million. Must have been a little glitch in the force.

This brings the Fed’s total outright purchases of Treasuries to $170 billion since it started Not QE, on September 17.

It also did $107 billion in gross new repo loans to Primary Dealers to buy Tre...



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Chart School

Silver stock taking the sector higher

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

As the US economy begins to show late cycle characteristics like: GDP slowing, higher inflation, higher wage costs, CEO confidence slump. 

Previous Post: Gold Stocks Review

The big players in the market are looking for the next swing off good value lows. This means more money is finding it way into the gold and silver sector, and it is said gold and silver stocks actually lead the metal prices.

The cycle below shows prices are ready to move in the months ahead (older chart re posted).


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Digital Currencies

Chinese Crypto Exchange IDAX Locks Cold Wallet As CEO "Goes Missing"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

By William Suberg via CoinTelegraph.com

Chinese cryptocurrency exchange IDAX has suspended deposits and withdrawals after its CEO allegedly disappeared.

In a blog post on Nov. 29, IDAX, which earlier this week warned it was seeing a run on withdrawals, said the whereabouts of Lei Guorong were currently unkno...



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Members' Corner

Sacha Baron Cohen Uses ADL Speech to Tear Apart Mark Zuckerberg and Facebook

 

Sacha Baron Cohen Uses ADL Speech to Tear Apart Mark Zuckerberg and Facebook

By Matt Wilstein

Excerpt:

Sacha Baron Cohen accepted the International Leadership Award at the Anti-Defamation League’s Never is Now summit on anti-Semitism and hate Thursday. And the comedian and actor used his keynote speech to single out the one Jewish-American who he believes is doing the most to facilitate “hate and violence” in America: Facebook founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg.

He began with a joke at the Trump administration’s expense. “Thank you, ADL, for this recognition and your work in fighting racism, hate and bigotry,” Baron Cohen said, according to his prepared...



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The Technical Traders

VIX Warns Of Imminent Market Correction

Courtesy of Technical Traders

The VIX is warning that a market peak may be setting up in the global markets and that investors should be cautious of the extremely low price in the VIX. These extremely low prices in the VIX are typically followed by some type of increased volatility in the markets.

The US Federal Reserve continues to push an easy money policy and has recently begun acquiring more dept allowing a deeper move towards a Quantitative Easing stance. This move, along with investor confidence in the US markets, has prompted early warning signs that the market has reached near extreme levels/peaks. 

Vix Value Drops Before Monthly Expiration

When the VIX falls to levels below 12~13, this typically v...



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Biotech

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

A vial of insulin. Prices for the drug, crucial for those with diabetes, have soared in recent years. Oleksandr Nagaiets/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Vanderbilt University

About 7.4 million people ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Promotions

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