Posts Tagged ‘EWZ’

Monday Market Movement – Do We Ever Go Down?

breadth

We all go down for a piece of the moment
Watch another burn to the death to the core
And the roadshow thrills pack the freaks and the phonies
Sing: now is now, yeah! – Rob Zombie 

There is just no way to win betting against this market!  

Well, actually, there is one way and that's betting that each pop is nonsense and tends to have a subsequent pullback intra-day but, long-term, the cumulative effect of all that low-volume pumping has been a rousing success, to say the least.  

As you can see from Andy Thrasher's S&P chart, there has been some amazing underlying deterioration since the July 4th weekend with the Advance/Decline line falling back to trend and stocks above their 200-Day Moving Average dropping 15% in 3 weeks.  Stocks above the 200 DMA is a fantastic leading indicator for downside move – ignore it at your own risk. 

TNXPeople are panicking into bonds, dropping the 10-Year Yield 20%, from 3.1% to 2.45% this year but it doesn't matter because Central Banksters are pumping SO MUCH MONEY into the Global Markets that there's enough to buy all asset classes simultaneously – something that is unprecedented in Financial History – what could go wrong?

Well, one thing that could go wrong is you putting your money into Mutual Funds.  As it turns out, in an S&P study of actively managed Mutual Funds, only 2 (two) out of 2,862 actually beat the S&P over ANY of the fund's lifetimes (limited to 12 months or longer).  

That's even worse than the average performace of hedge funds, which only averaged a 0.59% annual loss when compared to just putting your money directly into the S&P.

 This dovetails with a conversation we were having this weekend in our Member Chat Room, where I identified 4 trade ideas for a $50,000 Portfolio that only used 1/4 of the buying power to generate $365,512 in projected profits over the next 15 years using CONSERVATIVE options strategies designed to MATCH the S&P, not beat it.…
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Too High Tuesday? 10 Bullish Trade Ideas that Made Over 1,200%

SPY 5 MINUTEThis is ridiculous.

As noted on Dave Fry's chart, the S&P made a new record high with narrow participation and essentially all of the gains were one big move in the Futures to reprice the index.  I said yesterday we have been getting 50% of the day's volumes in the close and yesterday was no different and that closing volume is all dumping into the ETF, IRA and 401K suckers that are forced to buy.  

We took a couple of big bats against the Dow's move up yesterday, adding a DIA put at $166.80 (see yesterday's Member Chat for details) as well as going long on DXD at $26.20 – both with leveraged options plays, of course.  

SPX WEEKLY

We still have plenty of bullish trades to protect but, when we bein to cash out our winners and start buying short plays on the index – you can tell the winds are changing.  Our 500% trade on DDM from Thanksgiving was scheduled to top out in April anyway – and we sold in May to go away.  

That trade was one of our "10 Trade Ideas That Can Make (and some have already made) 500% in a Rising Market" and I had just as much trouble convincing people to go long in November as I'm having convincing people it's time to cash out in May.  

Not all the trades are done, but a quick summary of those positions is:

  • ABX 2015 $13/18 bull call spread at $2.80, selling 2015 $15 puts for $2.05 for net .75, now $2.35 – up 213%
  • 8 QQQ Jan 2014 $75/80 bull call spreads for $3 ($2,400), selling 1 ISRG 2015 $300 put for $23.50 ($2,350) for net $50, now net $2,600 - up 5,100%


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Friday Fakery – $188Bn Buys You a One-Day Rally

$188Bn!

That's how much money yesterday's rally cost.  Spain got the green-light on $123Bn from the ECB, most of which goes to just ONE bank (Bankia Group).  This news sent Bankia shares up 15% and did wonders for their creditors' stocks as well because, as we know, the best way to get money from a Central Banks is to owe a lot of money to other banks so – borrow, borrow, borrow if you want to survive the Financial Crisis.  Spain led Europe higher with a 4% gain on the day and hit another 1.75% early this morning before pulling back.  

Also in the Free Money train yesterday was Brazil, who initiated a $65.6Bn stimulus package aimed at much-needed infrastructure ahead of the 2016 Olympics.  This is a "just in time" thing for Brazil as 32 of 58 reporting companies in the Bovespa Index missed sales projections this quarter – the worst performance since Q1 2009.     

The Olympics have also greatly aided the UK's economy and July Retail Sales were the stars of Europe at +0.3% and August should be good too – it's September, October and November we're worried about.  The entire Euro Zone is clearly in a Recession, but it could be argued that it's the same one that started 4 years ago, which some would call a Depression – but not if they want the MSM to listen to them or to keep their Government positions.  

Even China is seeing declining exports, with August projected to come in at less than 1% according to ForexLive, who says "China's Government has underestimated the impact of the European debt crisis on trade flows."  As you can see from the chart on the right for California, China's export woes are hitting us on this side of the Pacific as well as total state revenues are 10% below projections with HUGE misses in Sales Tax – indicating an extremely beaten-down West Coast consumer.  

The state has avoided default by temporarily borrowing from state trust funds, but those accounts will soon need their cash back to continue operating. Today California quickly began trying to sell $10 billion in municipal bonds to fund the record $28 billion they need to keep the lights on. With tax revenue plummeting and the state already the second


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Morgan Stanley Options Active As JPM Errs

 

Today’s tickers: MS, EWZ & MDR

MS - Morgan Stanley – JPMorgan’s trading loss troubles, which brought the shares down nearly 10.0% this morning, weighed heavily on Morgan Stanley as well. Shares in the financial services firm earlier fell 5.8% to an intraday and four-month low of $14.70. Options traders expecting MS to bounce back next week picked up cheapened upside exposure in the form of May expiry calls. The bullish plays may be winning propositions in the event of a near term recovery in the price of the underlying. Traders purchased around 2,100 of the May $14 strike calls for an average premium of $1.05 apiece, and picked up more than 4,800 calls at the higher May $15 strike at an average premium of $0.36 each. Premiums on the $14 and $15 strike calls have moved higher during the session as shares in the name recovered off the morning lows. Strategists holding in-the-money contracts with one week remaining to expiration face average breakeven prices of $15.05 and $15.36, respectively.

EWZ - iShares MSCI Brazil Index Fund – Shares in the EWZ, currently up 0.75% on the day at $57.53, may extend gains in the near term by the looks of bullish positioning in the June expiry options this morning. Call options on the fund are most active out at the June $60 strike, where more than 36,000 contracts changed hands against open interest of 9,244 positions. Most of the calls appear to have been purchased for an average premium of $0.80 apiece. The single largest stake, a block of 29,707 calls, was picked up just before 11:00 a.m. ET this morning. Call buyers stand ready to profit at expiration next month in the event that shares in the Brazil ETF rally 5.7% to top the average breakeven…
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Near-Term Bulls Shop Around for Call Options at Newell Rubbermaid

Today’s tickers: NWL, GRS, OIH, HIG, EWZ, MBT & XOP

NWL - Newell Rubbermaid, Inc. – The global marketer of everyday commercial and consumer products popped up on our ‘hot by options volume’ market scanner during the second half of the trading session due to bullish activity in the December contract. Shares in Newell Rubbermaid are up 3.35% to stand at $17.33 with 45 minutes remaining before the final bell. Options traders exchanged more than 3,460 call options at the December $17.5 strike, versus previously existing open interest of just 980 contracts. It looks like more than 3,000 of the calls were purchased for a premium of $0.35 per contract. Plain-vanilla call buyers are prepared to make money should shares increase another 3.00% to exceed the effective breakeven point to the upside at $17.85 ahead of December expiration day. Rubbermaid’s shares last traded above $17.85 as recently as November 5, 2010.

GRS - Gammon Gold, Inc. – Bullish players picked up call options on the gold mining company today with shares of the Halifax, Nova Scotia-based firm climbing 1.2% to $6.77 in the final hour of the session. Investors expecting Gammon’s shares to extend gains purchased more than 3,000 calls at the January 2011 $7.0 strike for a premium of $0.43 apiece. Call buyers at this strike are poised to profit should shares in Gammon Gold surge 9.75% over the current price of $6.77 to surpass the effective breakeven point at $7.43 by January expiration. More than 3,280 calls changed hands at the Jan. 2011 $7.0 strike, which is more than six times the number of contracts represented by the 531 lots of previously existing open interest at that strike. Bullish sentiment spread to the March 2011 $7.5 strike where another 1,000 call options were purchased for premium of $0.48 each.…
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Contrarian Player Plants Bull Call Spread on Seed Maker Monsanto Co.

 Today’s tickers: MON, EWZ, XLB, HPQ, V, BCSI & SLB

MON - Monsanto Co. – Shares of the maker of genetically modified seeds seemed to be recovering at the start of the current session following Tuesday’s horrendous performance wherein the stock fell as much as 9.80% from an intraday high of $52.64 to a low of $47.50. MON’s shares managed to rebound 4.50% off Tuesday’s low of $47.50 to briefly touch an intraday high of $49.62, although the rally proved to be short-lived and shares are down 1.00% at $48.25 as of 3:15 pm ET. Though MON was unable to keep hold of earlier gains, one contrarian player is optimistic that Monsanto’s shares will reverse course and head back up by November expiration. The investor purchased a call spread, buying 5,000 calls at the November $55 strike at a premium of $0.85 each, and selling the same number of calls at the higher November $60 strike for a premium of $0.27 apiece. Net premium paid to establish the transaction amounts to $0.58 per contract. Thus, the investor is ready to make money should Monsanto’s shares surge 15.20% over the current price of $48.25 to surpass the effective breakeven point on the spread at $55.58 by November expiration. Maximum potential profits of $4.42 per contract are available to the bullish player if MON’s shares jump 24.35% to trade above $60.00 by expiration day.

EWZ - iShares MSCI Brazil Index ETF – Investors are placing near-term bearish bets on the Brazil fund this afternoon by selling calls to finance the purchase of put spreads in the October contract. The large pessimistic plays could be the work of traders hedging long positions or the mark of outright bearish bettors expecting the price of the underlying fund to slip lower ahead of expiration next month. Shares of the EWZ, an exchange-traded fund designed to replicate the price and yield performance of publicly traded securities in the aggregate in the Brazilian market – as measured by the MSCI Brazil Index, rallied…
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Butterflies, Straddles and Spreads, Oh My!

Today’s tickers: HRS, EWZ, RSH, PNRA, IVN, LO & DOW

HRS – Harris Corp. – A three-legged bullish play on the international communications and information technology company that serves government and commercial markets around the world indicates one option strategist expects shares of the underlying stock to rally significantly by expiration day in February 2011. Harris Corp.’s shares are up 0.95% at $44.46 just before 2:30 pm (ET), but earlier in the session rallied as much as 1.8% to an intraday high of $44.84. HRS shares moved higher on news the firm recently won a number of large contracts. One such contract is a 30-month, $25-million contract under the Network-Centric Solutions contract vehicle, which requires Harris to upgrade network infrastructure at 15 National Guard sites. Harris Corp. popped up on our ‘hot by options volume’ market scanner in the first half of the trading day following the implementation of a three-legged bullish transaction. The investor responsible for the trade essentially sold puts to finance the purchase of a debit call spread. In doing so, the trader sold 1,500 puts at the February 2011 $35 strike for a premium of $1.75 per contract, purchased 1,500 calls at the February 2011 $45 strike for a premium of $4.65 each, and sold 1,500 calls at the higher February 2011 $55 strike for premium of $1.20 apiece. The net cost of the transaction amounts to $1.70 per contract. Thus, the options player is poised to profit as long as Harris Corp.’s shares rally 5.00% over the current price of $44.46 to surpass the effective breakeven point at $46.70 by expiration day. The investor walks away with maximum potential profits of $8.30 per contract if HRS shares surge 23.7% to trade above $55.00 by February 2011 expiration. The short put stance at the February 2011 $35 strike implies the investor is happy to have 150,000 shares of the underlying stock put to him at $35.00 each should the puts land in-the-money by expiration day.

EWZ – iShares MSCI Brazil Index Fund – An investor itching for a rally in shares of the Brazil ETF purchased a bullish call butterfly spread in the August contract this afternoon. Shares of the EWZ, an exchange-traded fund designed to correspond to the price and yield performance of publicly traded securities in the aggregate in the Brazilian market, as measured by the MSCI Brazil Index, fell 1.05% to trade at…
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Options Tacticians Target Pfizer, Inc.

Today’s tickers: PFE, EWZ, BAC, JNPR, RHB, GENZ, MRVL & SKX

PFE – Pfizer, Inc. – Options strategists initiated diverse transactions on the global pharmaceutical company today with shares of the underlying stock slipping 0.75% lower to arrive at $14.12 in afternoon trading. One investor expecting Pfizer’s shares to remain range-bound through August expiration sold a straddle, while a pessimistic trader enacted a ratio put spread in the January 2011 contract. The short straddle took place at the August $15 strike where approximately 10,000 calls were sold for an average premium of $0.27 apiece, in conjunction with the sale of about 10,000 in-the-money puts for an average premium of $1.28 each. The straddle-seller pockets a gross premium of $1.55 per contract on the transaction, keeping the full amount of premium received if Pfizer’s shares settle at $15.00 at expiration. Shares must rally 6.2% in the next couple of months to reach $15.00 by expiration day in August. The short stance taken in both call and put options expose the responsible party to potentially devastating losses in the event that shares swing dramatically in either direction away from the $15.00 strike price. Losses accumulate for the straddler if PFE’s shares rally above the upper breakeven price of $16.55, or should shares slip beneath the lower breakeven point at $13.45 ahead of expiration. In longer-dated January 2010 options, a bearish trader wary of continued erosion in the price of Pfizer’s shares established a ratio put spread. The investor purchased 10,000 puts at the August $14 strike for a premium of $1.47 each, and sold 20,000 puts at the lower August $11 strike for a premium of $0.49 a-pop. Net premium paid for the transaction amounts to $0.49 per contract. The trader is poised to profit if shares of the pharmaceutical company decline 4.3% from the current price of $14.12 to breach the effective breakeven point on the spread at $13.51 by January 2011 expiration day. Maximum available profits of $2.51 per contract pad the investor’s wallet if Pfizer’s shares plummet 22.00% to settle at $11.00 at expiration.

EWZ – iShares MSCI Brazil Index ETF – Shares of the EWZ, an exchange-traded fund designed to provide investment results that correspond to the price and yield performance of publicly traded securities in the aggregate in the Brazilian market as measured by the MSCI Brazil Index, rallied 0.70% to $63.40 by 2:30 pm (ET). Despite…
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Bulls Target Newmont Mining Corp. Call Options as Shares Near All-Time Highs

Today’s tickers: NEM, RIG, CAL & EWZ

NEM – Newmont Mining Corp. – Gold producer, Newmont Mining Corp., enticed bullish options strategists to the arena in the first half of the trading session with shares of the underlying stock rallying nearly 3.00% to a new 52-week high of $61.46 as of 12:15 pm (ET). Investors expecting the price of Newmont’s shares to continue to appreciate ahead of July expiration, and potentially break straight through its all-time high of approximately $62.72 secured back in early 2006, purchased approximately 1,300 call options at the July $65 strike for an average premium of $0.74 apiece. Call buyers at this strike price are poised to profit if shares of the gold company surge 6.95% to surpass the average breakeven price of $65.74 ahead of expiration day next month. Longer-term bullish behavior observed today took place at the sky-high September $75 strike where it looks like 2,000 calls were picked up at an average premium of $0.54 per contract. Investors long the calls make money if the gold producer’s shares jump 22.9% to trade above the average breakeven price of $75.54 by September expiration.

RIG – Transocean Ltd. – Shares of the international provider of offshore drilling services for oil and gas wells are currently up sharply by 7.85% to stand at $53.31 just before 12:30 pm (ET). RIG’s shares have roared back to life recently, rallying 28.55% in the past couple of weeks, from a 2-year low of $41.88 on June 9th, up to an intraday high of $53.84 today. Bullish options players populating the stock today are positioning for RIG’s shares to rebound higher by July expiration. Optimistic investors picked up approximately 1,000 calls at the July $55 strike for an average premium of $2.12 apiece. Traders long the July $55 strike calls profit if RIG’s shares rally another 7.15% from the current price of $53.31 to trade above the average breakeven point to the upside at $57.12 by expiration day next month. Buying behavior spread to the higher July $60 strike where at least 1,200 call options were purchased at an average premium of $0.73 per contract. Investors holding these contracts make money if shares of the underlying stock surge 13.9% to surpass the average breakeven price of $60.73 by July expiration. The overall reading of options implied volatility on Transocean plunged 17.1% to 61.61% by 12:35 pm (ET). The current 61.61%…
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Quicksilver Resources, Inc. Options Activity Jumps Late in Session

Today’s tickers: KWK, MCCC, EWZ, NSC, HNT, EFA, JNJ, GT & LVS

KWK – Quicksilver Resources, Inc. – The independent oil and natural gas company’s shares recovered late in the session, adding 0.50% to stand at $12.18 as of 3:07 pm (ET), after commencing the trading day in the red by 0.30% to touch an intraday low of $11.75. Options investors all but ignored Quicksilver until this afternoon when both puts and calls in the July contract started to change hands. Roughly 10,000 puts were exchanged at the July $11 strike for an average premium of $0.44 apiece. Simultaneously, investors traded about the same number of calls at the higher July $13 strike for an average premium of $0.79 each. It looks like some options strategists populating KWK are selling strangles on the stock because they expect shares to trade within a specified range through expiration. Strangle-sellers pocket an average gross premium of $1.23 per contract, and keep the full amount received as long Quicksilver’s shares trade within the $11.00 to $13.00 range through expiration day. Investors short the strangle face losses should shares rally above the upper breakeven price of $14.23, or if shares slip beneath the lower breakeven point at $9.77 ahead of expiration. Other options strategists may be utilizing the same strike prices in the July contract to enact bullish risk reversals. Investors employing the risk reversal likely sold the July $11 strike puts in order to offset the cost of buying the July $13 strike calls. Average net premium paid for the transaction amounts to $0.35 per contract and positions traders to make money as long as Quicksilver’s shares rally 9.60% to exceed the average breakeven price of $13.35 by October expiration.

MCCC – Mediacom Communications Corp. – Shares of the firm engaged in the development of cable systems serving smaller U.S. cities are flat on the day at $6.28 in late afternoon trading. MCCC popped onto our ‘hot by options volume’ market scanner earlier in the session after one options investor exchanged a chunk of 4,000 calls on the stock in the October contract. The calls traded to the middle of the market at the October $7.5 strike for a premium of $0.25 apiece. The investor may be buying the contracts, in which case he is bullish on Mediacom and expects shares to rally sharply ahead of expiration in five months time. A long call…
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Zero Hedge

Walmart Transforming 160 Parking Lots Into Drive-In Movie Theaters

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

In May, readers may recall we said social distancing would revive drive-in movie theaters in a post-corona world. And boy, were we right.  

A press release via Walmart on Wednesday (July 1) said, "Walmart is transforming 160 of its store parking lots into contact-f...



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ValueWalk

The "Next Netflix" Has Finally Revealed Itself

By Mauldin Economics. Originally published at ValueWalk.

A sleeping giant tech stock has awoken. It’s already handing out monster gains. And as I’ll show you today, it’s just getting warmed up.

Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

In fact, it won’t be long before this stock is mentioned in the same breath as hall-of-famers like Netflix (NFLX), Facebook (FB), and Google (GOOG). That’s right. The next great tech stock is growing up before our eyes.

I don’t say that lightly. Within a few years, this compan...



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Phil's Favorites

Coronavirus deaths and swelling public sector debt share a data-quality problem

 

Coronavirus deaths and swelling public sector debt share a data-quality problem

Different countries report coronavirus data differently. Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Marion Boisseau-Sierra, Cambridge Judge Business School

Watching scientists, politicians and journalists struggle to compare national death rates from the coronavirus pandemic, I had an acute case of déjà vu. Though the virus may be novel, the confusion generated by inconsistent data standards is anything but. It’s something I&...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Coronavirus deaths and swelling public sector debt share a data-quality problem

 

Coronavirus deaths and swelling public sector debt share a data-quality problem

Different countries report coronavirus data differently. Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Marion Boisseau-Sierra, Cambridge Judge Business School

Watching scientists, politicians and journalists struggle to compare national death rates from the coronavirus pandemic, I had an acute case of déjà vu. Though the virus may be novel, the confusion generated by inconsistent data standards is anything but. It’s something I&...



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Chart School

Golds quick price move increases the odds of a correction

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Every market corrects, maybe profit taking, maybe of allowing those who missed out, to get in!


The current open interest on the gold contract looks to high after a very fast price move, it looks like 2008 may be repeating. A quick flushing out of the weak hands open interest may take place before a real advance in price takes place. The correction may be on the back of a wider sell off of risk assets (either before of after US elections) as all assets suffer contagion selling (just like 2008).

This blog view is a gold price correction of 10% to 20% range is a buying opportunity. Of course we may see  a very minor price correction but a long time correction, a price or time is correction is expected, we shall watch and...

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The Technical Traders

Wild Volatility Continues As US Markets Attempt To Establish New Trend

Courtesy of Technical Traders

We’ve continued to attempt to warn investors of the risks ahead for the US and global markets by generating these research posts and by providing very clear data supporting our conclusions.  Throughout the entire months of May and June, we’ve seen various economic data points report very mixed results – and in some cases, surprise numbers as a result of the deep economic collapse related to the COVID-19 virus event.  This research post should help to clear things up going forward for most traders/investors.

As technical traders, we attempt to digest these economic data factors into technical and price analysis while determining where and what ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Nasdaq 100 Relative Strength Testing 2000 Highs

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The tech bubble didn’t end well. BUT it did tell us that the world was shifting into the technology age…

Since the Nasdaq 100 bottomed in 2002, the broader markets have turned over leadership to the technology sector.

This can be seen in today’s chart, highlighting the ratio of Nasdaq 100 to S&P 500 performance (on a “monthly” basis).

As you can see, the bars are in a rising bullish channel and have turned sharply higher since the 2018 stock market lows. This highlights the strength of the Nasdaq 100 and large-cap tech stocks.

...

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Lee's Free Thinking

These Charts Show COVID 19 Is Spreading in the US and Will Kill the Economy

 

These Charts Show COVID 19 Is Spreading in the US and Will Kill the Economy

Courtesy of  

The COVID 19 pandemic is, predictably, worsening again in much of the US. Only the Northeast, and to a lesser extent some Midwestern states, have been consistently improving. And that trend could also reverse as those states fully reopen.

The problem in the US seems to be widespread public resistance to recommended practices of social distancing and mask wearing. In countries where these practices have been practi...



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Digital Currencies

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

 

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

App-etising? LDprod

Courtesy of Michael Rogerson, University of Bath and Glenn Parry, University of Surrey

Food supply chains were vulnerable long before the coronavirus pandemic. Recent scandals have ranged from modern slavery ...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.