Posts Tagged ‘factory orders’

Economists Surprised Again as German Factory Orders Unexpectedly Fall

Economists Surprised Again as German Factory Orders Unexpectedly Fall

Pig whispering in another pigs ear, close-up

Courtesy of Mish

Economists are surprised by the strangest things.

The UK has announced austerity measures, Greece, Spain, Portugal (3 little PIIGS) are in forced austerity programs, and Germany is paying more attention to deficit reduction than growth (rightfully so), yet somehow economists expect factory orders in Germany to keep improving.

Please consider the Bloomberg report German Factory Orders Unexpectedly Fell in May

German factory orders unexpectedly fell for the first time in five months in May as demand for goods made in Europe’s largest economy waned across the 16- nation euro region.

Orders, adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, declined 0.5 percent from April, when they rose a revised 3.2 percent, the Economy Ministry in Berlin said today. Economists had forecast a 0.3 percent gain for May, according to the median of 30 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. From a year earlier, orders increased 24.8 percent.

Europe’s sovereign debt crisis has pushed the euro down 17 percent against the dollar since late November, making exports to countries outside the currency bloc more competitive just as the global recovery gathered pace. With governments cutting spending to convince investors that budget deficits are under control, growth in the euro area, Germany’s biggest export market, may slow.

“You have to see today’s decline in orders in the context of strong increases in the previous months,” said Klaus Schruefer, an economist at SEB Bank AG in Frankfurt. “It doesn’t throw the German economy off its recovery track.”

Recovery Off The Rails

While it is true that any month can be an outlier, the European macro picture is anemic in light of austerity programs virtually everywhere you look.

Moreover, the Asia picture is anemic, the US macro picture is anemic, and indeed the entire global macro picture is anemic. Yet economists, an ever optimistic lot, still have faith in a recovery 100% based on unsustainable government spending even though governments in general are cutting government spending in an attempt to reduce budget deficits.

For now, the US is an exception to global budget tightening. However, it should be perfectly clear that Congress is taking a harder stance towards more stimulus efforts as a measure to extend unemployment benefits has died in the US senate.

Talk of continued recovery is nonsense. The best anyone can possibly hope for…
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Services ISM Growth Slows – Jobs, Imports, Export Orders Contract; Manufacturing vs. Services ISM – Which is More Important and Why?

Services ISM Growth Slows – Jobs, Imports, Export Orders Contract; Manufacturing vs. Services ISM – Which is More Important and Why?

Courtesy of Mish 

In yet another sign the economy is cooling substantially, three components of the June Services ISM are now in contraction, with the overall index declining much faster than economists expected.

From the June 2010 ISM Report On Business®:

In June, the NMI registered 53.8 percent, indicating continued growth in the nonmanufacturing sector for the sixth consecutive month, but at a slightly slower rate than in May. A reading above 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector is generally contracting.

Employment activity in the nonmanufacturing sector contracted in June after one month of growth. ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Employment Index for June registered 49.7 percent.

Orders and requests for services and other non-manufacturing activities to be provided outside of the United States by domestically based personnel contracted in June after three consecutive months of growth.

ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Imports Index contracted in June after three consecutive months of growth.

The above link also contains the Manufacturing ISM.

Recovery Withers on the Vine

There is really not much to like in either of the ISM reports.

Inquiring minds also note Factory Orders Fall More Than Expected; Recovery Withers on the Vine

You should not have to be a genius to figure out the rebound in manufacturing was a result of four factors now withering on the vine.

  • Inventory replenishment
  • Unsustainable stimulus
  • Housing incentives pushing demand forward on appliances
  • Rebound in auto sales from extremely depressed levels

Is Europe going to lead the world recovery? China? US Consumers?

The answers are No, No, and No

Manufacturing was the one bright spot but its best days are now long gone. Moreover China Manufacturing Slows for Second Month; US ISM Weaker than Expected; Weekly Unemployment Claims Stubbornly High; Existing Home Sales Plunge

Budgetary Murder

This depression (and we are in one, masked only by safety nets galore), is The Price We Pay For Budgetary Murder.

Unfortunately, the budgetary murder continues unabated, and that will prolong this depression.

Japan is in its mess because of Keynesian and Monetarist stimulus, we are in this mess because of Keynesian and Monetarist stimulus, and the UK is in its mess because of Keynesian and Monetarist stimulus. Yet the


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Factory Orders Fall More Than Expected; Recovery Withers on the Vine

Factory Orders Fall More Than Expected; Recovery Withers on the Vine

Courtesy of Mish 

The "nascent recovery" was led by manufacturing and now the one bright spot is showing signs of age, just as state payrolls are about to get clobbered.

Please consider Orders to U.S. Factories Declined in May More Than Forecast.

Orders placed with U.S. factories declined in May more than forecast, a sign that manufacturing may be starting to cool.

The 1.4 percent decrease in bookings was the biggest since March 2009 and followed a revised 1 percent gain in April, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Economists forecast orders would drop 0.5 percent, according to the median projection in a Bloomberg News survey.

Estimates of total orders in the Bloomberg survey of 70 economists ranged from a decline of 2 percent to a gain of 1.5 percent. The decrease in May was the first in nine months.

Manufacturing in June expanded at the slowest pace this year as factories received fewer orders and demand from abroad slowed, a report showed yesterday. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing gauge fell to 56.2 from 59.7 a month earlier. Readings greater than 50 indicate expansion. The Tempe, Arizona- based group’s new orders measure fell to the lowest level since October.

Demand for durable goods, which make up just over half of total factory demand, decreased 0.6 percent in May. Shipments of durable goods fell 0.3 percent.

Bookings of non-durable goods, including food, petroleum and chemicals, decreased 2.1 percent. The decline reflected a drop in the value of orders for petroleum products, clothing, fertilizers and beverages.

Orders for capital goods excluding aircraft and military equipment, a measure of future business investment, increased 3.9 percent after a 2.8 percent drop in April. Shipments of these goods, used in calculating gross domestic product, rose 1.4 percent after rising 0.4 percent.

Factory inventories declined 0.4 percent in May, and manufacturers had enough goods on hand to last 1.25 months at the current sales pace.

Recovery Withers on the Vine

You should not have to be a genius to figure out the rebound in manufacturing was a result of four factors now withering on the vine.

  • Inventory replenishment
  • Unsustainable stimulus
  • Housing incentives pushing demand forward on appliances
  • Rebound in auto sales from extremely depressed levels

Is Europe going to lead the world recovery? China? US Consumers?


continue reading


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Zero Hedge

Curve Inverts As Traders Brace For J-Hole Surprise; Boeing Propels Dow Higher

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

In what was mostly a very quiet day, with traders refusing to trade in size ahead of tomorrow's main event, J-Powell's J-Hole speech, we got a glimpse of what will happen if the Fed chair disappoints the market's expectations for committing to further rate cuts.

After spiking in early trading, stocks slumped to session lows and the VIX jumped back over the key 16 threshold, after Philly  Fed's Harker joined other regional Fed presidents in pouring cold water on hopes for more rate cuts, and instead saying that he expects not to vote for more easing.

...



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Phil's Favorites

Part III - Is the Fed Too Late Prevent A Housing Market Decline?

Courtesy of Technical Traders

So, the reality is that based on our modeling system and our research, there are only two ways that the US Fed (and likely the global central banks) can navigate out of this inflation killing debt glut that has sunk the global markets into a quicksand-like economic malaise; either A. reduce debts dramatically across the board (all nations) in an attempt to allow for some level of future growth/inflation opportunity, or B. find a way to push GDP out levels to 2x (or higher) that of current debt levels.  A is much more difficult to negotiate and navigate – but it may be an option sometime in the future.  B is the more likely option with a transition into some type of new 21st-cent...



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The Technical Traders

Part III - Is the Fed Too Late Prevent A Housing Market Decline?

Courtesy of Technical Traders

So, the reality is that based on our modeling system and our research, there are only two ways that the US Fed (and likely the global central banks) can navigate out of this inflation killing debt glut that has sunk the global markets into a quicksand-like economic malaise; either A. reduce debts dramatically across the board (all nations) in an attempt to allow for some level of future growth/inflation opportunity, or B. find a way to push GDP out levels to 2x (or higher) that of current debt levels.  A is much more difficult to negotiate and navigate – but it may be an option sometime in the future.  B is the more likely option with a transition into some type of new 21st-cent...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Is the US Dollar About To Break Out Higher?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The US Dollar Index is flexing its muscle of late.

Trade wars and fear of a global slowdown have capital fleeing to King Dollar.

King dollar breakout test in play?

Looking at today’s chart, you can see that the Dollar has been consolidating in a range for the past year – see shaded area on chart (1).

Now King Dollar is attempting to break out over the topside of that range at (2). That area represents dual resistance, as it also represents the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement level.

What it does here could highly impact the financial ...



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Insider Scoop

Earnings Scheduled For August 22, 2019

Courtesy of Benzinga

Companies Reporting Before The Bell
  • Hormel Foods Corporation (NYSE: HRL) is estimated to report quarterly earnings at $0.36 per share on revenue of $2.29 billion.
  • BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: BJ) is projected to report quarterly earnings at $0.37 per share on revenue of $3.38 billion.
  • DICK'S Sporting Good...


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Chart School

Gold Gann Angle Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Everything awesome? Gold over $1500. Central banks are printing money to generate fake demand. Germany issues first ever 30 year bond with negative interest rate. Crazy times!

Even Australia and New Zealand and considering negative interest rates and printing money, you know a bunch of lowly populated islands in the South Pacific with no aircraft carriers or nuclear weapons. They will need to do this to suppress their currency as they are export nations, as they need foreign currency to pay for foreign loans. But what is next, maybe Fiji will start printing their dollar. 

Now for a laugh, this Jason Pollock sold for more than $32M in 2012. 





Ok, now call Dan...

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Lee's Free Thinking

Watch Out Bears! Fed POMO Is Back!

Courtesy of Lee Adler

That’s right. The Fed is doing POMO again.  POMO means Permanent Open Market Operations. It’s a fancy way of saying that the Fed is buying Treasuries, pumping money into the financial markets.

Over the past 6 days, the Fed has bought $8.6 billion in T-bills and coupons. These are the first regular Fed POMO Treasury operations since the Fed ended outright QE in 2014.

Who is the Fed buying those Treasuries from?

The Primary Dealers. Who are the Primary Dealers?  I’ll let the New York Fed tell you:

Primary dealers are trading counterparties of the New York Fed in its implementation of monetary policy. They are also expected to make markets for the New York Fed on behalf of its official accountholders as needed, and to bid on a ...



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Digital Currencies

New Zealand Becomes 1st Country To Legalize Payment Of Salaries In Crypto

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have been on a persistent upswing this year, but they're still pretty volatile. But during a time when even some of the most developed economies in the word are watching their currencies bounce around like the Argentine peso (just take a look at a six-month chart for GBPUSD), New Zealand has decided to take the plunge and become the first country to legalize payment in bitcoin, the FT reports.

The ruling by New Zealand’s tax authority allows salaries and wages to b...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Biotech

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing - but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

Reminder: We're is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing – but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

A telomere age test kit from Telomere Diagnostics Inc. and saliva. collection kit from 23andMe. Anna Hoychuk/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Patricia Opresko, University of Pittsburgh and Elise Fouquerel, ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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