Posts Tagged ‘FAST’

Fickle Friday – Google Goes Down as Costs Inflate

Well who’d have thunk it? 

The cost of doing business is rising and GOOG happens to be one of those businesses that lacks pricing power as their rates are generally set through an auction process and their users have to VOLUNTEER to pay more money to advertise.  Most advertisers on Google are on fixed budgets, like MSM advertisers and Google has done a great job of replicating that model.  Why then, should it be surprising if a maturing Google begins to look more like a traditional media outlet than a dot com company with exploding growth?  

Don’t get me wrong, we love Google long-term but we did short them as well as BIDU into Google earnings as we felt Google would disappoint enough to spook BIDU investors as well.  We’re taking the short money and running and looking for some bullish plays now – the drop from $630 last month to $545 today is plenty of froth blown off the top for us to get long-term interested again.  As you can see from the tag cloud of the Conference Call, growth is still there, especially in mobile display ads (Android a bit disappointing) and no major negatives.  I’m not going to write a whole thing about GOOG though, there are thousands of people doing that and our Members know well enough where I stand.  I’m more interested in examining the bigger picture.  

We expected Q1 earnings to be rough and we’ve already seen FDX, NKE, ORCL, RIMM, FAST, FCS and AA struggle so hopefully you don’t have to be hit on the head with another whole week of earnings before you get a little more cautious.  Next week we hear from C, HAL, LLY, TXN, BK, GS, INTC, IBM, SYK, USB, VMW and YHOO on Monday and Tuesday and then we’re off to the races with hundreds of companies reporting each week for the rest of the month.  Our job in the first few weeks of earnings season is to get a feel for the quarter and, so far, that feeling is rough.  

It’s all about inflation, of course and don’t say we didn’t warn you about that one!  We went more  bearish up at those 100% lines we’ve been watching and now the question really is – how bad was it?  Inflation is, after all, our long-term BULLISH premise.  We don’t think corporations
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Bearish Player Targets Verigy Ltd. Put Options

Today’s tickers: VRGY, AEO, FAST & XLK

VRGY - Verigy Ltd. – A sizable put spread on the maker of chip-testing equipment suggests one option strategist is prepared for shares in Verigy Ltd. to drop ahead of April expiration. Shares in Singapore-based Verigy are currently up 0.85% to stand at $13.03 perhaps after analysts at JPMorgan upgraded the semiconductor sector to ‘constructive’ from ‘cautious.’ Verigy looked to acquire LTX-Credence Corp. back in November in an all-stock deal that valued its takeover target at $500 million including net debt, but those plans may fall through as Japanese chip-testing equipment giant, Advantest Corp., extended its own offer to acquire Verigy at a substantial premium of $15.00 a share, up from an original bid of $12.50 a share, at the end of last year. The merger of Verigy and Advantest would form the largest manufacturer of semiconductor testing equipment in the world. Perhaps the put player populating Verigy today is prepared to see shares in the name drop if the deal with Advantest ultimately falls through in the next six weeks to April expiration. The investor purchased 5,200 puts at the April $13 strike for a premium of $1.00 each, and sold the same number of puts at the lower April $11 strike at a premium of $0.25 apiece. Net premium paid to initiate the spread amounts to $0.75 per contract. Thus, the trader starts making money should Verigy’s shares decline 6.00% to breach the effective breakeven price of $12.25 ahead of April expiration day. Maximum potential profits of $1.25 per contract pad the investor’s wallet in the event that shares in VRGY plummet 15.6% from the current price of $13.03 to trade below $11.00 by expiration next month.

AEO - American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. – Call options on the casual clothing retailer are…
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Options Tactician Targets Southwestern Energy Co.

Today’s tickers: SWN, XLE, FAST, NFLX, WU, ODP & SEH

SWN – Southwestern Energy Co. – Shares of the independent energy company engaged in natural gas and crude oil exploration, development and production increased as much as 1.6% at the start of the trading session to touch an intraday high of $32.60. Options trading on the stock took on a bullish slant after one strategist populated the January 2011 contract with a couple of interesting transactions. It looks like the investor sold a strangle and purchased in-the-money call options during the second half of the trading session. The options player purchased 10,000 in-the-money calls at the January 2011 $32 strike at an average premium of $2.795. At the same time, the trader initiated a short strangle, selling 15,000 calls at the January 2011 $36 strike for premium of $1.13 each, and shedding 15,000 puts at the lower January 2011 $29 strike at a premium of $1.30 apiece. Gross premium pocketed on the strangle amounts to $2.43 per contract. It seems the trader is looking for substantial albeit limited upside movement in Southwestern shares. The long call stance, in isolation, prepares him to make money if SWN’s shares rally above the breakeven price of $34.43 by January expiration. Meanwhile, the trader keeps the full premium pocketed on the sale of the strangle if shares trade within the boundaries of the $29/$36 strike prices through expiration day next year. The short strangle may be a financing vehicle aimed at reducing the cost of getting long the in-the-money calls. In this scenario, the investor is bullish on Southwestern Energy, but does not see shares exploding to the upside in the next 5 months to expiration.

XLE – Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF – The implementation of a ratio put spread on the energy ETF suggests one options strategist may be bracing for erosion in the price of the underlying shares through January 2011 expiration. Shares of the XLE, an exchange-traded fund designed to yield investment results that correspond to the price and yield performance of the Energy Select Sector of the S&P 500 Index, are lower by 0.75% to stand at $54.44 with approximately 40 minutes remaining before the closing bell. The put player appears to have purchased 11,500 lots at the January 2011 $50 strike for premium of $1.66 each, and sold 23,000 puts at the lower January 2011 $47 strike at…
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GDWheee Friday – Could be a Wild Ride!

Attention ladies and gentlemen:

The stock market will soon be leaving the station, please secure all personal items, pull down the safety bar (our Disaster Hedges) and keep all body parts inside ride at all times.  Well you know you can follow all of the safety instructions and STILL get smacked in the face with a black swan (like our friend Fabio, pictured here) which is why we elected to get back to cash ahead of this report.  The markets were just too insane this week and who the heck knows if Europe will still be a Union on Monday or what the GDP number is going to be (but I do think it's a miss). 

Since our biggest weekend fear is financial panic in Europe, our cash US dollars will become more valuable in a crisis and if the market drops, all the better as we can ride back in and do some bargain hunting.  If the market takes off on good GDP and Greece is "fixed" and Spain is "fixed" and Portugal and Ireland are not really a problem (especially for MS and JPM) and the CRIMINAL charges against Goldman look beatable and and the Financial Reform Bill doesn't disrupt the market with a disorderly breakup of the big banks and the Bank of International Settlements Report continues to be ignored and the run on the Greek banks doesn't spread to other STUPID counties – well, then we can BUYBUYBUY because, if all this doesn't matter, then it's very likely that the entire planet Earth could explode but Wall Street will keep ticking higher.

Yep, I can't wait to ride this baby mindlessly higher!  After all, what can go wrong?  BIDU is ONLY $710 a share, BLK is $190, CMP is $76, GOLD is $84, BUCY is $65, FAST is $56, MMM is $90, FOSL $40, F $13.50, DECK $149, SHOO $55, TPX $35, LZB $14, CTB $22, NOG $16, CEO $176, FTI $75, CLB $150, CIB $46, BBD $19, TD $75, BCA $45, BAP $87, ITUB $22, EDU $94, WYNN $93, FFIV $72, CY $14, CREE $77, UPS $70, UNP $78… 

These were stocks I was looking at last week, when I told members I thought it was easier to construct a Sell List than our usual…
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Testy Tuesday – Have the Markets Become Comfortably Numb?

"There is no pain you are receding
A distant ship's smoke on the horizon.
You are only coming through in waves.
Your lips move but I can't hear what you're saying.
When I was a child
I caught a fleeting glimpse
Out of the corner of my eye.
I turned to look but it was gone
I cannot put my finger on it now
The child is grown,
The dream is gone.
but I have become comfortably numb
." – Pink Floyd
 

I have a theory that the markets (and the American people in general) aren't irrational, they are simply shell-shocked after suffering a very traumatic group financial experience… 

To be shell-shocked is to be "mentally confused, upset, or exhausted as a result of excessive stress" and the most common symptoms are: Fatigue, slower reaction times, indecision, disconnection from one's surroundings, and inability to prioritize – That certainly sounds like our Congress doesn't it?  Combat stress disorder was first diagnosed in WWI, when 10% of the troops were killed and 56% wounded – far worse than had been experienced in previous wars.  Our current financial crisis has similarly affected more people than any previous crisis with almost everyone knowing someone who is bankrupt or lost their jobs or homes and almost no one escaped the carnage of the downturn without some financial damage. 

Combat fatigue may go a long way to explaining the severe drop-off in volume that has plagued the markets since March, with participation now down to 25% of where we were last January and that leaves us open to the blatant sort of market manipulation that Karl Denninger caught last week as well as the usual nonsense we get daily from HFT programs that drive the market with such precision that we are able to tell how the day is going to go by simply checking our hourly volume targets.  Here's a clip from CNBC where a floor trader discusses market manipulation as a fact of trading (2 mins in).  

As Nicholas Santiago points out on In The Money Stocks,   "January is usually a very high volume month, yet it has started off the New Year even lighter than the last two months of 2009.  Light volume markets are very difficult to
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Phil's Favorites

How many Americans really misuse opioids? Why scientists still aren't sure

 

How many Americans really misuse opioids? Why scientists still aren't sure

Defining opioids. Darwin Brandis/shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Joseph Palamar, New York University Langone Medical Center

With rates of prescription opioid use disorder and opioid-involved overdose deaths on the rise, the U.S. opioid crisis appears to be continuing unabated.

Data on overdose and de...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

King Dollar Created Multi-Year Topping Pattern?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The currency markets often play a role in asset management for investors. And one key asset that pays close attention to the US Dollar is Gold (and precious metals). Could a near-term trend change be in store for the US Dollar… and its counterpart, the Euro? Precious metals bulls would love to see the US Dollar topping and the Euro bottoming.

In the chart below, you can see that the two currencies are showing similar reversal patterns – a traditional head and shoulders top for the US Dollar Index and an inverted head and shoulders bottom for the Euro.

BUT, they need to confirm these pattern by breaking down / up.

It’s worth noting that NOTHING has been proved so far, but the potential of both creating longer-term reversal patterns is there and traders should stay tuned.

US D...



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Zero Hedge

Italy's 5 Star Threatens To Ditch Coalition Over Budget Talks, Italian Bonds Slide

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

While the market turmoil over Italy's budget has quieted down in recent weeks as a result of soothing words by the ruling coalition that it would comply with European demands, that snapped moments ago when DPA reported that the leader of Italy's Five Star Movement has threatened to pull the plug on the country's populist government if it cannot find money to implement election campaign promises.

"If we do not find the resources to do what we have said, then it is better for us to go home, there is no point in...



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ValueWalk

How Soon Will A.I. Replace All The Traders: Q&A With Gaurav Chakravorty, CIO Of Qplum

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

VW: Tell our readers, what is Qplum?

Qplum is an AI-driven investment management firm. We manage money for individuals, families, and institutions. We actively manage investments using machine learning and deep learning technology.

Our three product lines are:

  1. Wealth, servicing the financial needs of individuals and families via separately managed accounts.
  2. Alpha, for institutional clients only, where we offer different products like GTAA (Global Tactical Asset Allocation), managed futures program, etc. and
  3. Solutions, where we work on customized tactical asset allocation solutions for pension funds and family offices to target a dual loss-aversion and return-seeking investment mandate.

[REITs]

...

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Digital Currencies

Mania to Mania

 

Mania to Mania

Courtesy of 

“Russell rarely played the stock market and had little investing experience when he put around $120,000 into bitcoin in November 2017.”

This comes from a CNN money article, Bitcoin crash: This man lost his savings when cryptocurrencies plunged. From January 2017 through the peak in early 2018, Ethereum gained 16,915%.

Any time you have something go vertical, you just know that some peopl...



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Insider Scoop

A Peek Into The Markets: US Stock Futures Flat Ahead Of Housing Starts, Current Account Data

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Pre-open movers

U.S. stock futures traded mostly flat in early pre-market trade. Data on housing starts for August and the current account report for the second quarter will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1 point to 26,273.00, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures traded declined 2 points to 2,909.75. Futures for the Nasdaq 100 index slipped 1.5 point to 7,523.

Oil prices traded ...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Sep 16, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

Slow and steady drip up all this past week in a very quiet news environment.  A gap down top open the day Tuesday (which was recovered quickly) and a gap up Thursday (which held) were the highlights!

The latest on TRADE WARS!(tm):

Tuesday, news hit that China vowed to retaliate and plans to ask the World Trade Organization next week for permission to impose sanctions on the U.S. for Washington’s noncompliance with a ruling in a dispute over U.S. dumping duties, Reuters reported. That’s part of a dispute that goes back to 2013.

“Trade wars are certainly a concern, but I don’t know that they’re a one...



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Members' Corner

Nike, Colin Kaepernick and the pitfalls of 'woke' corporate branding

 

Adding this article to Members Corner, in case anyone wants to share their opinions on Nike and Kaep, or on divisiveness in general. Also see the article I mentioned in the comments section, "A Warning From Europe: The Worst Is Yet to Come" and What’s behind the current wave of ‘corporate activism’? ~ Ilene

Nike, Colin Kaepernick and the pitfalls of 'woke' corporate branding

Courtesy of Simon Chadwick, University of Salford...



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Biotech

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Breast cancer type 1 (BRCA1) is a human tumor suppressor gene, found in all humans. Its protein, also called by the synonym BRCA1, is responsible for repairing DNA. ibreakstock/Shutterstock.com

By Jay Shendure, University of Washington; Greg Findlay, ...



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Mapping The Market

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

Via Jean-Luc:

Famed investor reflecting on his mistakes:

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

One that stands out for me:

Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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