Posts Tagged ‘Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’

Fed Jawboning And Market Performance

Is there a tendency for the market to act in a particular way around the Fed Chairman’s testimony to Congress?  Welcome to Jason, who answers this question in the following piece. – Ilene

Fed Jawboning And Market Performance

Courtesy of Jason Goepfert at Sentiment’s Edge 

Here’s a reprint of something we discussed on the main site earlier this year.  It’s as relevant now as it was in February…

Mr. Bernanke is now scheduled to speak before Congress in the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress.

We’ve discussed this event several times over the years, but it’s worth touching on again, as we have seen some pretty consistent market action surrounding these speeches.

The day before the Fed Chair’s testimony to Congress, the S&P 500 has been up nearly 70% of the time.  But the day of the prepared remarks, it was up 44% of the time, and the day after it was up only 28% of the time (7 out of 25 occurrences).

For some reason, these meetings have an uncanny tendency to occur very near market inflection points, with the market moving substantially in the other direction from the move preceding the testimony.  The chart below highlights these meetings (the gray vertical lines) superimposed on a chart of the S&P 500.

 
Fed Chair = Market Timer

If the S&P 500 was negative over the month prior to the testimony, then the month following the meeting it was up 8 out of 10 times with an average return of a respectable +2.3%, though the risk/reward over the next month was about evenly distributed (-3.8% to +3.9%).

However, if the S&P was positive heading into the meeting, then the following month also showed a positive return only 13% of the time (2 out of 15 instances) and an average return of -2.8%.  The risk/reward was extremely skewed to the downside (-5.9% to +1.6%).  The last 12 occurrences, dating back to 1998, were all negative.

 


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At Long Last – Fed Explains Exit Strategy

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At Long Last – Fed Explains Exit Strategy

Fed's Exit PlanCourtesy of Mish

After months of hemming and hawing Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has finally detailed The Fed’s Exit Strategy in an Op-Ed in the Wall Street Journal.

The depth and breadth of the global recession has required a highly accommodative monetary policy. Since the onset of the financial crisis nearly two years ago, the Federal Reserve has reduced the interest-rate target for overnight lending between banks (the federal-funds rate) nearly to zero. We have also greatly expanded the size of the Fed’s balance sheet through purchases of longer-term securities and through targeted lending programs aimed at restarting the flow of credit.

My colleagues and I believe that accommodative policies will likely be warranted for an extended period. At some point, however, as economic recovery takes hold, we will need to tighten monetary policy to prevent the emergence of an inflation problem down the road. The Federal Open Market Committee, which is responsible for setting U.S. monetary policy, has devoted considerable time to issues relating to an exit strategy. We are confident we have the necessary tools to withdraw policy accommodation, when that becomes appropriate, in a smooth and timely manner.

The exit strategy is closely tied to the management of the Federal Reserve balance sheet. When the Fed makes loans or acquires securities, the funds enter the banking system and ultimately appear in the reserve accounts held at the Fed by banks and other depository institutions. These reserve balances now total about $800 billion, much more than normal. And given the current economic conditions, banks have generally held their reserves as balances at the Fed.

But as the economy recovers, banks should find more opportunities to lend out their reserves. That would produce faster growth in broad money (for example, M1 or M2) and easier credit conditions, which could ultimately result in inflationary pressures—unless we adopt countervailing policy measures. When the time comes to tighten monetary policy, we must either eliminate these large reserve balances or, if they remain, neutralize any potential undesired effects on the economy.

Bernanke Explains Fed Tools

The tools Bernanke mention in the article are:

Paying interest on reserves. This was authorized by Congress in 2008. Supposedly this was going to put a floor on interest rates at 2%.


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Bernanke Suffers From Selective Memory Loss

Courtesy of Mish

Bernanke Suffers From Selective Memory Loss; Paulson Calls Bank of America "Turd in the Punchbowl"

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben BernankeFed chairman Ben Bernanke’s memory seems to be failing at an amazingly convenient time, for Bernanke. Please consider Bernanke Blasted in House.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke faced open hostility from lawmakers who barraged him during a Congressional hearing over his handling of the financial crisis and the central bank’s role in reshaping the banking system.

Setting aside the deferential tone usually reserved for Fed chairmen, members of the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform repeatedly interrupted Mr. Bernanke at Thursday’s hearing to review the Fed’s role in engineering a government aid package for Bank of America Corp. The lawmakers pored over internal Fed emails subpoenaed by the committee and projected on a screen in the hearing room.

Much of the heat focused on the Fed’s part in pushing Bank of America to complete its acquisition of Merrill Lynch in January. House members on both sides grilled Mr. Bernanke on whether he threatened to force out Bank of America Chief Executive Kenneth Lewis. They accused him of inconsistencies in his statements and of keeping information from other agencies.

The biggest point of contention was over whether Mr. Bernanke threatened to oust Bank of America CEO Mr. Lewis. Bank of America approached top U.S. officials in mid-December about abandoning its deal to buy Merrill Lynch.

Mr. Bernanke defended the Fed’s actions, saying the central bank acted with the "highest integrity" in the negotiations with Bank of America. "I did not tell Bank of America’s management that the Federal Reserve would take action against the board or management," Mr. Bernanke said, adding that the decisions were "taken under highly unusual circumstances in the face of grave threats to our financial system and our economy."

Lawmakers pointed to a Dec. 20 email written by Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker. One of a series unearthed by the panel, the email recounts a conversation between Messrs. Lacker and Bernanke in which the Fed chief planned to tell Bank of America that "management is gone," if they quashed the deal and later needed more government aid, wrote Mr. Lacker.

Pressed on the issue, Mr. Bernanke said he didn’t make such a comment to Mr. Lewis and didn’t remember that part of the conversation with Mr. Lacker.

Rep. Dan Burton, (R., Ind.), a


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Phil's Favorites

Is This As Good As It Gets For the Stock Market?

 

Is This As Good As It Gets For the Stock Market?

Courtesy of 

Josh and I spoke recently  about the slow grind higher, the lack of volatility, and all the recent stock market records. The very first response in the comment section was, “market overdue for a pullback.”

This seems to be the prevailing narrative and I gotta be honest, I agree. I’m just as surprised as anyone that the market keeps grinding higher.

Here are a few data points, by way of the S&am...



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Zero Hedge

Neel Kashkari Appeals To "QE Conspiracists": Show Me How The Fed Is Moving Stock Prices... So Here It Is

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Things are starting to get surprisingly heated at the Fed, now that not only Wall Street strategists, and traders but also Fed presidents are starting to tell the truth about how the Fed's "NOT QE", which sorry but we will call it by its real name QE 4, is pushing stocks to ridiculous nosebleed record levels (as one can see by the relentless meltup in the S&P over the past four months), at valuations that are now higher the dot com days.

...



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The Technical Traders

Energy Continues Basing Setup - Breakout Expected Near January 24th

Courtesy of Technical Traders

After watching Crude Oil fall from the $65
ppb level to the $58 ppb level (-10.7%) over the past few weeks, we still
believe the energy sector is setting up for another great trade for skilled
investors/traders.

We are all keenly aware that Winter is still
here and that heating oil demands may continue to push certain energy prices
higher.  Yet Winter is also a time when
people don’t travel as much and, overall, energy prices tend to weaken
throughout Winter.

Over the past 37 years, the historical monthly breakdown for Crude Oil is as follows:

December: Generally l...



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Insider Scoop

10 Biggest Price Target Changes For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Citigroup lifted Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) price target from $145 to $170. Caterpillar closed at $147.87 on Thursday.
  • UBS cut Twitter Inc (NYSE: TWTR) price target from $37 to $35. Twitter shares closed at $34.19 on Thursday.
  • Morgan Stanley boosted the price target for Yum! Brands, Inc. (NYSE: YUM) from $113 to $118. Yum! Brands closed at $102.16 on Thursday.
  • Jefferies lifted the price target on Ventas, Inc. (NYSE: ...


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Kimble Charting Solutions

Tesla About To Run Out Of Energy Here? Short-Term Peak Possible?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Tesla (TSLA) has been screaming higher of late, as very impressive gains have taken place.

Is Tesla about to run out of energy/take a break/experience some selling pressure? A unique price setup is in play, that bulls might want want to be aware of.

This chart applies Fibonacci to the 2016 lows and 2017 highs at each (1). The impressive rally of late has it testing its 161% extension level, based upon those price points.

At the same time, it is hitting its 161% extension level, it finds itself at the top of a 7-year rising channel, with momentum hitting the highest ...



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Chart School

Gold Gann Angle Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

The new year of 2020 has gold is poised to break out higher. Why is gold going higher? Maybe the FED's economists can explain .... or not.

Maybe these could be on the list:

- FED repo hundreds of billions a day.
- ECB made up tools to keep the European banks solvent.
- A sugar high stock market with Apple Inc and Microsoft looking like Bitcoin 2017.
- The US bond market is NOT confirming a strong stock market.
- Corporate profits have flat lined for 3 years while stocks soared each year.
- Knowing an US election year needs stimulus, and a lower US dollar is a first choice.
- China deal, will have a currency element to make it easier to do business. Lower US dollar.



Gold Gann Angle ...

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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Digital Currencies

Cryptos Have Surged Since Soleimani Death, Bitcoin Tops $8,000

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Bitcoin is up over 15% since the assassination of Iran General Soleimani...

Source: Bloomberg

...topping $8,000 for the first time since before Thanksgiving...

Source: Bloomberg

Testing its key 100-day moving-average for the first time since October...

...



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Members' Corner

Tobin Smith: Foxocracy, the 2020 Election, and the Stock Market

 

For decades, Fox News has been spreading false information and hooking its audience into an angry, xenophobic and paranoid worldview. It's no mystery that Fox was instrumental in the 2016 election -- but how did it do it? How did it gain so much influence? Tobin Smith, CEO of Transformity Research, Inc. and former Fox News contributor and talk show host, explores this phenomenon and discusses Fox News’ emotionally predatory and partisan propaganda media strategies and tactics in his new book, ...



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Biotech

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

A vial of insulin. Prices for the drug, crucial for those with diabetes, have soared in recent years. Oleksandr Nagaiets/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Vanderbilt University

About 7.4 million people ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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