Posts Tagged ‘Finding Alpha’

The Limits of Intellectual Property

Telluride Asset Management LLC v. Eric Falkenstein has been settled but the pain lingered on for many years. I learned about the case recently while reading Eric’s blog and wanted to learn more. Eric kindly agreed to share his experiences in an exclusive interview, and over the last week has been educating me in trade secrets and intellectual property law. 

The Limits of Intellectual Property

Are There Any in the Hedge Fund World?

By Ilene

So who is Eric Falkenstein and how did he become an ex-portfolio manager with no portfolio to manage? 

Eric graduated from Northwestern with a PhD in economics and wrote his dissertation on cross sectional stock returns and volatility.  Prior to joining Telluride as a hedge fund manager in 2004, he had been using strategies that drew upon his education, previous work running his own fund and a fund, Deephaven.
 
Eric resigned his position at Telluride in September, 2006. Several months later, Telluride initiated a lawsuit claiming that strategies used by Eric belonged to Telluride. The claims in the lawsuit would require a court to determine the nature of the components of the strategy Eric had been using and decide who owned them. This is more complicated than it may appear.
 
Consider this analogy.  Baker E goes to work baking sugar cookies for Bakery B.  E, who’s been a baker for ten years, has a favorite recipe calling for flour, butter, sugar, eggs and baking soda.  During the next few years, E tinkers with the ratios of ingredients and experiments with chocolate frosting and colorful sprinkles, but never deviates significantly from the basic recipe.
 
Then one day, Baker E decides to leave Bakery B and open a Cookie Shoppe C in another town.  Bakery B initiates legal action to prevent E from operating C, arguing that E’s cookie recipe will inevitably be derived from privileged information gained while working for B.
 
In response, Baker E argues that his recipe is a standard sugar cookie recipe, using common ingredients. He argues that B cannot own the sugar cookie constituents (sugar, flour, butter, etc.), and that B needs to define the specific recipe in its complaint. Bakery B argues they will provide that, after full discovery has been completed (which could be a few years).
 
And so began Eric's adventure into IP law.  
 
In a hedge fund “trade secret” case, the “ingredients” are variables used to construct


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Psychologists to the Rescue!

I don’t often post book reviews, but this one by Eric Falkenstein is particularly intriguing. I’d also like to welcome Eric as our newest contributor to Phil’s Stock World. Eric’s an economist, author of the book "Finding Alpha," and Managing Member of CapRock Advisors. – Ilene

Psychologists to the Rescue!

Doctoring the mind, psychologyCourtesy of
Eric Falkenstein of Falkenblog
 
With Danny Kahneman’s Nobel prize in economics every other week has a big-name author or journalist writing a breathless article about how the new ‘behavioral economics’ will fix sterile financial theory. Alas, way back in 1951 this was a tired theme. George Stigler noted "each decade, for the past nine or ten decades [ie, back to 1851!], economists have read widely in the then-current psychological literature. These explorers have published their findings, and others in the field have found them wanting—wanting in useful hypotheses about economic behavior."

Take, for example, the anchoring bias, where people do not adjust their prior beliefs sufficiently when presented with new data. On the other hand, there’s the case where people do not sufficiently account for base rate information, as for example when they are told a woman is quiet and assume she’s a librarian, not saleswoman, even though there are more saleswomen than librarians. Thus, over, or underreaction to information is a common ‘bias’, and so Kahneman’s classic work Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases surveys papers from the 1970s! After a generation, the low hanging fruit has been picked, and where are we? Momentum and mean-reversion are part of the ‘new’ finance, and George Soros proudly notes that his theory of markets has markets biased—though it could be in either direction. Yet, these are not really discovered by behavioral economics, but explained by it on a case by case basis. Prospect theory teaches us that people overweight, or underweight, extreme observations in various contexts. These insights are no more useful than saying the effect of X on Y ‘could go either way, depending on a bunch of other information we probably won’t notice until after the fact’.

Finding AlphaA new book about psychiatry, Doctoring the Mind by Richard Bentall argues that the science of the mind is hardly a successful science. He argues that mental illness is on the increase and sufferers in the developed world with access to psychiatric care actually fare


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Zero Hedge

University Of Georgia Suggests "Wearing A Face Mask" During Sex

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Just when you thought all universities were good for was churning out uninformed Marxists, the University of Georgia breaks that stigma by offering up some groundbreaking sexual health advice in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic. 

The University had written a section called "Covid-19 Considerations" on its University Health Center website several days ago, but the document was pulled down after the university was subjected to ridicule for its content, which actually suggested "wearing a face mask during sex."

...

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Phil's Favorites

Before Kamala Harris became Biden's running mate, Shirley Chisholm and other Black women aimed for the White House

 

Before Kamala Harris became Biden's running mate, Shirley Chisholm and other Black women aimed for the White House

Kamala Harris, a U.S. senator from California, endorsed Joe Biden for president in March. Now she is his vice presidential nominee. Jeff Kowalsky/AFP via Getty Images

Courtesy of Sharon Austin, University of Florida

U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris, the ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Trillions in coronavirus spending is putting AOC's favorite economic theory to the test

 

Trillions in coronavirus spending is putting AOC's favorite economic theory to the test

The Fed can create all the money Uncle Sam needs. GeorgePeters/Getty Images

Courtesy of Steven Pressman, Colorado State University

French philosopher Voltaire famously quipped: “If God did not exist, it would be necessary to invent him.” Something similar can be said of modern monetary theory, also known as MMT, because it may be the economy’s only hope to get through the pandemic.

Coined by Australia...



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ValueWalk

Clem Chambers Explains How ADVFN Became A Financial Information Juggernaut

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Clem Chambers, the CEO of ADVFN and the CEO of Online Blockchain plc was kind enough to talk with Valuewalk about the success of his investment website. Below is a lightly edited Q&A between Clem and our editor.

Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Can you tell us about your background?

I started in the software industry over thirty-six years ago and was a pioneer of computer games, massively multiplayer games, multimedia and the internet. I founded internet company Online plc in 1990, which incubated stocks and shares (and now ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Doc Copper Bear Market Resistance Kiss In Play!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is ole Doc Copper about to ends its 9-year bear market? I suspect we will find out the answer to the question very soon!

Doc Copper has created a series of higher lows inside the falling channel (1) since it peaked back in 2011.

The rally from the lows in March of this year, has Doc Copper testing the top of its falling channel as well as a support/resistance price zone at (2).

With Doc Copper still in a bear market (lower highs for 9-years), this price test comes into play as important resistance at (2).

If Doc Copper breaks out at (2), it would send...



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Chart School

Silver Big Channel

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Big channels are the sand pit of price action. Lets review some big trends of these past months.


GLD
- Moving higher to upper solid red line channel


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XAU
- Ready to pause, or simply explode.



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SILVER
- Ready to pause, or simply explode.


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The Technical Traders

Melt-Up Continues While Metals Warn of Risks

Courtesy of Technical Traders

What a week for Metals and the markets, folks. The Transportation Index is up nearly 4% for the week.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up over 3% for the week.  Silver is up over 14% and reached a peak near $30 (over 23%).  Gold is up over 2.5% and trading above $2025 right now – with a peak price level near $2090.  If you were not paying attention this week, there were some really big moves taking place.

MELT-UP WITH HIGH RISKS – PAY ATTENTION

Overall, our research team believes the current “melt-up” price action is likely to continue as global investors continue to believe the US Fed will do everything possible to save the...



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Digital Currencies

Raoul Pal: "It May Not Be Worth Owning Any Asset Other Than Bitcoin"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Turner Wright via CoinTelegraph.com,

Raoul Pal, CEO and founder of Real Vision, says Bitcoin may soon become his only asset for long-term investments.

image courtesy of CoinTelegraph ...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

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Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.