Posts Tagged ‘Fractional Reserve Lending’

Mish “Hard Money” Goes Off The Rails

Here’s another installment in the debate between our friends Mish (Global Economic Trend Analysis) and Karl (The Market Ticker).  Confession – as a big fan of both Mish and Karl, each makes good arguments, I’m currently undecided.  What do you think?  Don’t forget, we have a comment section.  :-)   Ilene

Mish "Hard Money" Goes Off The Rails

Courtesy of Karl Denninger at The Market Ticker


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Fractional Reserve Lending Constitutes Fraud

Fractional Reserve Lending Constitutes Fraud

Courtesy of Mish

I was asked to reply to Karl Denninger’s Rebuttal To Mish On Fractional Reserve Lending.

Here goes: Denninger does not phrase my arguments correctly on points 2-5, however he thinks they are immaterial so the points are somewhat moot. The crux of the matter is not whether assets are backed by collateral as Denninger suggests, but rather whether the same money has been lent out multiple times.

Let’s follow through with a real life example.

Fannie Mae makes a loan of $1,000,000. Let’s be more than reasonably fair and assume Fannie Mae issued bonds for the entire amount, not borrowing a single cent into existence. So far there is no fraud.

$1,000,000 goes to the home builder. That home builder deposits $1,000,000 into a Bank of America checking account. Ignoring sweeps that would allow Bank of America to loan out every cent, let’s assume BofA keeps 10% in reserves and lends out $900,000 to a new furniture store on the corner strip mall.

The furniture store owner buys $900,000 of furniture from a wholesaler. The wholesaler deposits $900,000 into a Citigroup checking account. Again, ignoring the likelihood Citigroup sweeps the whole amount into a savings account thereby able to lend out the entire amount (savings accounts have no reserve requirements), let’s assume that Citigroup keeps 10% in reserves and lends out $810,000 to a High Roller who takes out a home equity loan on his house that is supposedly worth $3,000,000.

High Roller buys a yacht from a boating manufacturer for $810,000. The yacht manufacturer deposits $810,000 in a checking account at Wells Fargo. Following the same pattern, Wells Fargo keeps 10% in reserves and lends out $729,000 to a plumbing supply company, because home sales are going gangbusters and the plumbing supplier needs more supplies.

I think you can see where this is headed.

On the original $1,000,000 this is what FRL allows to be lent out.

$900,000
$810,000
$729,000
$656,000
$590,000
$531,000
$478,000
$430,000
$387,000
….

See where this is going?
I am going to arbitrarily stop the chain right there, but the total so far is $5,511,000 out of $1,000,000 was lent out.

Karl claims this is not fraudulent because "it’s all backed by assets".

Well for starters the value of those assets backing


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Rebuttal To Mish: FRL

Rebuttal To Mish: FRL

Courtesy of Karl Denninger at The Market Ticker


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Global Debt Bubble, Causes and Solutions

Global Debt Bubble, Causes and Solutions

Courtesy of Mish

Australian economist Steve Keen is one of the very few who have called this economic crisis correctly. What distinguishes Keen is that his economic forecasts are based on levels of debt and changes in levels of debt as opposed to money supply, output capacity and other things that led most economists astray.

The following video is about 19 minutes long but very much worth listening to in entirety, improving as it goes along. The video may take a while to load but it’s well worth it. Everything below in quotes, until the next bold title is a partial transcript from the video.

Steve Keen:

"If you have a sane economy, and by sane economy I mean one which is not addicted to debt, not a Ponzi economy, then the change in debt each year should contribute a minor amount to demand. Therefore, if you tried to correlate debt to the level of unemployment you would not find much of a correlation. Unfortunately that is not the economy we live in."

deleveraging driven downturn

"The red line shows the percent contribution that debt contributes to demand and the blue line which is inverted is the unemployment rate."

"There should be no correlation if the economy is operating sensibly. Correlation is now at the level of 83%. Because we have a debt driven economy, the change in debt levels each year is the major determinant in the change in economic performance."

"Neoclassical economic theory is dangerous. Neoclassical economists completely missed this crisis. My favorite statement comes from the OECD in its June 2007 report"

" A recent survey trying to find economists who predicted this found 12. And there are 10,000-15,000 economists in the US alone which is why I don’t particularly accept their assurances that everything is OK from now on."

"Now why are economists so ignorant? Two major reasons. First of all the type of modeling they do is static where you ignore time, or if you have dynamics you assume they are converging to some nice stable situation in the future. And they ignore almost completely the role of credit and debt."

"I probably win the Dr. Doom award around the planet these days now that Nouriel Roubini is expecting the recession will end in about 6 months time. I…
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Zero Hedge

Gen Z Will Ditch Alcohol To Become The "Ultimate" Marijuana Consuming Generation

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

America's newest generation is growing up in a marijuana environment that is unlike anything ever seen in the U.S.

Generation Z has never experienced an era where marijuana was looked upon as a "scourge", or the source of extreme political ire - instead, they have only known an era where cannabis is being relentlessly pushed toward acceptance and legality. In fact, California voted to legalize medical marijuana in 1996, just one year before the eldest Generation Z consumers were born, ...



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Phil's Favorites

How Does this Happen?

 

How Does this Happen?

Courtesy of 

Apple has added $286 billion in market capitalization over the past 73 trading sessions. That’s $10 million every minute.

There are only 11 companies in the United States with a higher valuation than what Apple managed to tack on since January 3rd.

The biggest stock in the world gained 43% in under four months. How does something like this happen?

This question is a Rorschach test of sorts. Some people will see this and scoff at the idea that m...



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Insider Scoop

Uber To Sell Minority Stake Of Its Autonomous Vehicle Unit To Japanese Consortium

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Uber Technologies is planning to sell a 14 percent stake in its autonomous vehicle unit to existing investor Softbank, Japanese automaker Toyota, and auto parts manufacturer Denso ahead of its much-anticipated initial public offering (IPO), which is expected to happen in May. Though...



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Digital Currencies

5 Cryptocurrency Tax Questions To Ask On April 15th

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by David Kemmerer via CoinTelegraph.com,

Depending on what country you live in, your cryptocurrency will be subject to different tax rules. The questions below address implications within the United States, but similar issues arise around the world. As always, check with a local tax professional to assess your own particular tax situation.

...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Thursday, 18 October 2018, 05:33:01 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: Why The Stock Market Is Heading For Disaster youtu.be/Gubf0A5pHL0



Date Found: Monday, 29 October 2018, 12:55:07 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: Ross Beaty: We Are Star...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver Bear Market Faces Big Price Support Test!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

When silver, gold, and the precious metals industry were red-hot bullish in the 2000’s, investors could do no wrong.

You could buy SILVER at just about any price and it would go higher.

In today’s chart, you can see three large green bullish ascending triangles from the 2000’s that lead to big gains. But that was the bull market before the current bear market.

The tables have turned since the 2011 price top. Silver quickly formed a bearish descending triangle and fell another 50 percent when that broke down. This sent a vicious bear mark...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Biotech

Marijuana is a lot more than just THC - a pharmacologist looks at the untapped healing compounds

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Marijuana is a lot more than just THC - a pharmacologist looks at the untapped healing compounds

Assorted cannabis bud strains. Roxana Gonzalez/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of James David Adams, University of Southern California

Medical marijuana is legal in 33 states as of November 2018. Yet the federal government still insists marijuana has no legal u...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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