Posts Tagged ‘free week’

Technicals vs. Fundamentals: Which are Best When Trading Crude Oil and Natural Gas?

Technicals vs. Fundamentals: Which are Best When Trading Crude Oil and Natural Gas? 

Low angle view of an oil derrick at work in desert setting

By Elliott Wave International

If "fundamentals" drive trend changes in financial markets, then shouldn’t the same factors have consistent effects on prices?

For example: Positive economic data should ignite a rally, while negative news should initiate decline. In the real world, though, this is hardly the case.  On a regular basis, markets go up on bad news, down on good news, and both directions on the same news — almost as if saying "talk to the hand cuz the chart ain’t listening." 

Unable to deny this fly in the fundamental ointment, the mainstream experts often attempt to reconcile the inconsistencies with phrases like "shrugged off," "defied" or "in spite of." 

That begs the next question: How do you know when a market is going to cooperate with fundamental logic and when it won’t? ANSWER: You don’t.

Take, for instance, the first three news items below regarding the July 22 performance in crude oil, versus the fourth headline, which occurred on July 23:

  • Crude prices surge nearly 4% in their sharpest one-day percentage gain since May. The rally was "aided by fears that Tropical Storm Bonnie will enter the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend and disrupt oil production." (Wall Street Journal) 
  • "Oil Prices Soar As Gulf Storm Threat Looms" (Associated Press) 
  • "The storm should keep oil prices bubbling if it continues to strengthen and remain on track." (Bloomberg) 

vs.

  • "Oil Slips From Surge Despite Storm Threats" (Commodity Online) 

Unlike fundamental analysis, technical analysis methods don’t rely on the news to explain or predict market moves. They look at the markets’ internals instead.

*****

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This S&P 500 Chart Tells the Two-Part Truth

This S&P 500 Chart Tells the Two-Part Truth

Until Nov. 11, EWI is allowing free downloads of their latest market analysis and forecasts, including Robert Prechter’s latest Elliott Wave Theorist and Steve Hochberg’s and Pete Kendall’s latest Elliott Wave Financial Forecast. Learn more about FreeWeek, and download your free reports here.

By Robert Folsom, Senior Writer for Elliott Wave International

As you read and look at this page, please know that the chart is the star of the show. My description will add only a few details.

Two Months of Euphoria Produces only 57S&P Points

The chart published less than two weeks ago in Bob Prechter’s Elliott Wave Theorist. The rectangular box is plain to see: It envelopes the huge S&P 500 rally that began last March — a gain of 61.5% and 430 points, as of Oct. 18.

But there’s a two-part truth to the rally — and that is what the box really shows.

Part one shows the "wall of worry" — basically March through August. That’s when the media and experts were overwhelmingly negative about stocks. They were surprised by the rally. Remember?

Part two shows the more recent time of "euphoria" — basically September and October. The media and experts turned positive. The market was all about "green shoots" and "recovery."

You see when most of the rally unfolded. Six months of serious worry produces a 373-point climb, whereas "two months of euphoria produces only 57 S&P points."

Now, the two-part truth about this rally is an easy story to tell. It’s literally a few lines and notations on a price chart. Has anyone else pointed out that over the past two months, the stock market "rally" has in fact slowed to a crawl?  As you look at the chart, perhaps you notice that the decline, which began in 2007, and in turn the recent rally, are both on a similarly large scale.

Price action in the stock market this week has only strengthened the analysis in Bob Prechter’s October Theorist issue.

You can read the very latest forecasts in the just-published November issue of the Elliott Wave Financial Forecast — both publications (plus the tri-weekly Short Term Update) are yours for free — only during FreeWeek (now through Nov. 11).

Learn more about FreeWeek, and download the November Theorist for more about the above chart.

Robert Folsom is a financial writer and editor for Elliott Wave International. He has covered
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ValueWalk

Weak Jobs Data, Stocks And Gold

By Monica Kingsley. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stocks gave up some of Monday‘s strong gains, but I find it little concerning in the sub-3,900 pre-breakout meandering. It‘s about time, and a play on the tech sector to participate meaningfully in the coming rally (or at least not to stand in the way again).

[soros]

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Talking obstacles, what about today‘s non-farm employment change, before the really key Fri‘s release? A bad number makes it less like...



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Phil's Favorites

Senator Ossoff Drops a Bombshell: "The 12 or 13 Largest Banks" Got the Trillions from the Fed's Repo Loans Last Year

Courtesy of Pam Martens

Senator Jon Ossoff, Democrat of Georgia

The new, 34-year old Democratic Senator from Georgia, Jon Ossoff, let a very big cat out of the bag at yesterday’s Senate Banking hearing. For at least a year, from September 17, 2019 through at least September 30, 2020, the New York Fed, acting as an agent for the Federal Reserve, doled out a cumulative $9 trillion or more in repo loans. The Fed would say only that the money was going to some of its 24 Primary Dealers on Wall Street, without naming any specific bank receiving the money. In June of 2020, the New York Fed abruptly sto...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Bond Prices About To Fall Off The Cliff?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The bull market in bond prices has steady, durable, and trustworthy. Over the past 40 years, if investors could count on anything, it was rising bonds and falling bond yields (interest rates).

But this trend / dynamic may be changing…

The post pandemic spike lower in interest rates (yields) sent bonds to all-time highs… but that quickly gave way to selling and steadily higher interest rates.

Is the bond market about to receive monster message?

As we have done many times before, today we share an “inverted” chart of ...



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Zero Hedge

Market Rollercoaster Continues As Global Markets Rebound From Tuesday Rout

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Once again market sentiment has reversed violently - or rather the opposite - overnight, with yesterday's late day spoo slump inspired by the short squeeze in Rocket Mortgage - which forced hedge funds to liquidate their best positions - being faded and on Wednesday Emini futures jumped 0.6%, global shares gained with European indexes echoed positive moves in Asia, as a recent retreat in Treasury yields fuelled demand for riskier assets... even though the 10Y has rebounded 5bps to 1.45% overnight as focus again turned back to the stimulus-fueled recovery from the pandemic....



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Biotech/COVID-19

COVID-19 revealed how sick the US health care delivery system really is

 

COVID-19 revealed how sick the US health care delivery system really is

Many U.S. hospitals and clinics are behind when it comes to sharing information. Teera Konakan/Moment via Getty Images

Courtesy of Elizabeth A. Regan, University of South Carolina

If you got the COVID-19 shot, you likely received a little paper card that shows you’ve been vaccinated. Make sure you keep that card in a safe place. There is no coordinated way to share information about who has been vaccinated and who has not.

...

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Mapping The Market

Which Governments Ordered Johnson & Johnson's Vaccine?

 

Which Governments Ordered Johnson & Johnson's Vaccine?

Courtesy of Niall McCarthy, Statista

On Wednesday, U.S. regulators announced that Johnson & Johnson's Covid-19 vaccine being developed by its subsidiary Janssen Pharmaceuticals in Belgium is effective at preventing moderate to severe cases of the disease. The jab has been deemed safe with 66 percent efficacy and the FDA is likely to approve it for use in the U.S. within days.

The Ad26.COV2.S vaccine can be stored for up to three months in a refrigerator and requires a single shot, ...



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Digital Currencies

Crypto - It Is Different This Time

 

Crypto – It Is Different This Time

Courtesy of Howard Lindzon

?I have been astonished as you know by the growth of crypto.

I remember back in 2017 when I noticed that Stocktwits message volume on Bitcoin ($BTC.X) surpassed that of $SPY. I knew Bitcoin was here to stay and Bitcoin went on to $19,000 before heading into its bear market.

Today Bitcoin is near $50,000.

Back in November of 2020, something new started to happen on Stocktwits with respect to crypto.

After the close on Friday until the open of the futures on Sunday, all Stocktwits trending tickers turned crypto. The weekend messages on Stocktwits have increased 400 percent.

That has continued each weekend...



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Politics

What is fascism?

 

What is fascism?

A Donald Trump supporter wears a gas mask and holds a bust of him after he and hundreds of others stormed the Capitol building on Jan. 6, 2021. Roberto Schmidt/AFP via Getty Images

Courtesy of John Broich, Case Western Reserve University

Since before Donald Trump took office, historians have debated whether he is a fascist.

As a teacher of World War II history...



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Chart School

The Fastest Money

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

The fast money happens near the end of the long trend.

Securities which attract a popular following by both the public and professionals investors tend to repeat the same sentiment over their bull phase. The chart below is the map of said sentiment.
 


 

Video on the subject.


 

Charts in the video



 



 



Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to ...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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