Posts Tagged ‘FST’

Bearish Options Change Hands On Gap

Today’s tickers: GPS, TWX & FST

GPS - Gap, Inc. – Apparel retailer, Gap, Inc., popped up on our scanners this morning after a sizable trade was initiated in the August expiry put options. Nearly 5,000 of the Aug $46 strike puts changed hands close to the start of the session versus open interest of 778 contracts. Volume in the Aug $46 puts is more than twice the stock’s average daily options volume of around 2,100 contracts. Shares in GPS, up roughly 40% since the start of 2013, are off 0.30% on the day to stand at $46.33, hovering just below a multi-year high of $46.56 reached last week. Options changing hands on the retailer this morning suggest one trader is bracing for near-term weakness in the price of the underlying. It looks like the strategist purchased around 4,000 Aug $46 puts at a premium of $0.86 per contract. The trade starts making money if shares in Gap decline 2.6% from the current price of $46.33 to breach the effective breakeven point on the downside at $45.14 by August expiration next week. The long put position may be an outright bearish bet on the stock or a protective stance to hedge a long position in the shares. Gap, Inc. is scheduled to report second-quarter earnings on August 22nd, the week following expiration of the Aug 16 ’13 options.

TWX - Time Warner Inc. – Options changing hands on media and entertainment company, Time Warner, today look for shares in the name to potentially come off the multi-year highs highs hit earlier in the session. Shares in TWX earlier rose 0.70% to $64.72 ahead of the company’s second-quarter earnings release prior to the opening bell on Wednesday. Shares in Time Warner are up nearly 60% since this time last year. A sizable trade…
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Sizable Call Spread Constructed On Pulte

 

Today’s tickers: PHM, GE & FST

PHM - PulteGroup, Inc. – Shares in the homebuilder are down 1.3% this morning ahead of the Fed’s decision regarding further quantitative easing to trade at $15.35, giving up some of Wednesday’s 7% rally that lifted the stock to a four-year high of $15.70, on an intraday basis. Pulte’s shares moved up sharply yesterday on an upgrade to ‘Buy’ from ‘Hold’ with an increased target price of $17.00 from $13.00 at Williams Financial Group. Today, a large call spread initiated on Pulte suggests one big options market participant is positioning for shares in the homebuilder to extend their impressive run during the next 16 months. Since roughly this time last year, the stock has more than quadrupled, rising from a low of $3.29 on October 4th, 2011, to yesterday’s high of $15.70. The long-term bullish bet established in PHM options this morning yields maximum possible profits if the stock gains more than 60% by January 2014 expiration. The strategist responsible for the trade appears to have purchased 15,000 calls at the Jan. 2014 $15 strike for a premium of $3.75 each and sold the same number of calls at the Jan. 2014 $25 strike at a premium of $0.95 each. Net premium paid for the position amounts to $2.80 per contract and establishes an effective breakeven price of $17.80. Thus, the trader starts making money if the shares rally 16% to top $17.80, and could rake in maximum potential profits of $7.20 per contract in the event PHM’s shares soar 63% to top $25.00 by expiration.

GE - General Electric Co. – Options on General Electric are more active than usual this morning ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision on whether to initiate a third round of bond buying to stimulate the economy. Heavy trading in GE Sep. 14 ’12 $22 strike weekly calls suggests one or more traders are preparing for shares in the name to potentially hit…
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Monday Market Movement – Pattern Recognition

Here’s a scary chart pattern for you from our Chart School:

Elliot Wave Trends points out that the S&P has fallen into a fractal patten that may be repeating the behavior of the great drop of ’08, right here, right now.  Of course patterns do SEEM to repeat themselves all the time – until they don’t – but it will be interesting this week and next to see if we follow-through with a flatline, followed by a drop to 1,000 from which we falsely back to 1,050 and then plunge to our doom as Santa foresakes us and we run all the way back down to our lows.

That’s where they lose me.  Charts are fun and all but I see no basis for going back to our lows as our lows were ridiculous and caused by panic-selling in a doomsday scenario.  Hard to imagine things will fall apart that badly between now and Jan earnings although I do believe we will have a rough time — just not that rough! 

Economy barrons surveyBarron’s surveyed Money Managers this weekend and they don’t seem to think things will be rough at all.  52% of those surveyed think there is NO WAY we will have a double dip recession.  76% believe that the decline in corporate profits has ended and 68% believe our GDP wil grow more than 2.5% in Q4 while just 10% believe it is possible for commodity pricing to fall in the next 6 months.  You know what they say about when everyone is on the same side of a bet of course! 

These are the people we give our money to – the biggest and "brightest" of hedge fund managers who control over $1Tn of assets under management.  Favorite stocks in the group are: MSFT, ABT, BAC, BRK.A, CVS, GE, GS, LEG and QCOM.  Stocks that are considered overvalued are: AIG, AAPL, GOOG, CAT, AMZN, C, GE, GMCR, VZ and YHOO.  Ony 7% think Asian stocks are heading lowed, just 1% less than 8% who feel oil is going down; 92% don’t feel oil will go down

Everybody likes Tech (just 0.9% think it will be the worst performing sector) and nobody likes the Financials (22.5% think it will be the worst performing sector) followed by Consumer Cyclicals (20.7%) and, oddly, Utilities (15.3%).  The sectors picked as the best performers for the next 6-12 months are Tech (18.9%), Energy (17.1%) and Health Care (17.1%).  Only…
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Zero Hedge

"Mega Find" - 5,000 Classic Motorcycles Stashed In Barns 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

The Federal Reserve's quantitative easing and Treasury's fiscal stimulus have resulted in the greatest monetary experiment of all time. The result of trillions of dollars pumped into the economy has lifted prices of all assets, everything from the stock market to homes to baseball cards to crypto to classic cars and motorcycles. 

Last week, readers were one of the first to know about a rare 1955 Porsche 550 Spyder found in an ol...



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Phil's Favorites

Pandemic recovery will take more than soaring growth - to fuel a more equitable economy, countries need to measure the well-being of people, too

 

Pandemic recovery will take more than soaring growth – to fuel a more equitable economy, countries need to measure the well-being of people, too

Researchers have long been searching for a more comprehensive way to assess national progress than GDP. erhui1979 via Getty Images

Courtesy of Bas van Bavel, Utrecht University and Auke Rijpma, Utrecht University

...

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Digital Currencies

"You'd Have To Shut Down The Internet" To Ban Bitcoin, Says SEC's Hester Peirce

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Any government efforts to ban Bitcoin would be “foolish,” said Hester Peirce (aka “Crypto Mom”), a very Bitcoin-friendly commissioner at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), during a MarketWatch virtual conference earlier this week, according to Cryptoslate reporter Liam Frost.

"I think we were past that point very early on because you’d have to shut down the Internet,” Peirce said, adding, “I don’t see how you could ban it. Y...



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Chart School

Gold Gann Angle Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

The Biden Yellen team have made their play, and it is not US dollar friendly.

Janet Yellen speech named "International Priorities — Remarks to The Chicago Council on Global Affairs" (here) can be summed to (via Luke Gromen) :


The US is accelerating a move away from "subjugating the US middle and working class to support the USD", to "subjugating the USD to support the US middle and working classes".



Well the above is true, but as we all know large US deficits and the trend of the US dollar are joined at the hip, and that trend is down '...

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ValueWalk

2021 Sohn Investment Conference Featuring Einhorn, O'Shaughnessy And More

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The 2021 Sohn Investment Conference will be held virtually on May 12, 2021 and Valuewalk will be covering the event. Stay tuned for our in-depth coverage!

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Check out our coverage of the 2020 Sohn Hong Kong Conferences here.

All proceeds from The 2021 Sohn Investment Conference will be directed to Rockefeller University, which will provide unrestricted funding for scientists working on some of the highest-risk, highest-reward projects primed to advance the treatment of pediatric...



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Biotech/COVID-19

How worried should you be about coronavirus variants? A virologist explains his concerns

 

How worried should you be about coronavirus variants? A virologist explains his concerns

A COVID-19 patient in an ICU unit in a hospital in Capetown, South Africa, in December 2020. A variant emerged in South Africa that has since spread to other parts of the world. Other new variants could emerge elsewhere. Rodger Bosch/AFP via Getty Images

Courtesy of Paulo Verardi, University of Connecticut

Spring has sprung, and there is a sense of relief in the air. After one year of lockdowns and social distancing, mor...



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Politics

For autocrats like Vladimir Putin, ruthless repression is often a winning way to stay in power

 

For autocrats like Vladimir Putin, ruthless repression is often a winning way to stay in power

Russian police officers beat people protesting the jailing of opposition leader Alexei Navalny, Jan. 23, 2021 in Moscow. Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images)

Courtesy of Shelley Inglis, University of Dayton

Russian dissident Alexei Navalny, sick with a cough and ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold; Load Up The Truck Upon Hitting This Level

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Gold has created lower highs since peaking last summer. Is Gold near a low? Where would a nice entry point come into play?

This chart looks at Gold ETF (GLD) on a weekly basis over the past few years. GLD hit the top of this rising channel at (1) last summer, as it was above moving averages and relative strength was hitting lofty levels.

The decline over the past 7-months has GLD creating a death cross. Warren Buffett sold his Gold holding before this death cross took place!

Where would one want to pick up some GLD at a nice risk/reward price point?

If GLD reaches rising channel support at (2), w...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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Promotions

Phil's Stock World's Weekly Webinar - March 10, 2021

Don't miss our latest weekly webinar! 

Join us at PSW for LIVE Webinars every Wednesday afternoon at 1:00 PM EST.

Phil's Stock World's Weekly Webinar – March 10, 2021

 

Major Topics:

00:00:01 - EIA Petroleum Status Report
00:04:42 - Crude Oil WTI
00:12:52 - COVID-19 Update
00:22:08 - Bonds and Borrowed Funds | S&P 500
00:45:28 - COVID-19 Vaccination
00:48:32 - Trading Techniques
00:50:34 - PBR
00:50:43 - LYG
00:50:48 - More Trading Techniques
00:52:59 - Chinese Hacks Microsoft's E...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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