Posts Tagged ‘FST’

Bearish Options Change Hands On Gap

Today’s tickers: GPS, TWX & FST

GPS - Gap, Inc. – Apparel retailer, Gap, Inc., popped up on our scanners this morning after a sizable trade was initiated in the August expiry put options. Nearly 5,000 of the Aug $46 strike puts changed hands close to the start of the session versus open interest of 778 contracts. Volume in the Aug $46 puts is more than twice the stock’s average daily options volume of around 2,100 contracts. Shares in GPS, up roughly 40% since the start of 2013, are off 0.30% on the day to stand at $46.33, hovering just below a multi-year high of $46.56 reached last week. Options changing hands on the retailer this morning suggest one trader is bracing for near-term weakness in the price of the underlying. It looks like the strategist purchased around 4,000 Aug $46 puts at a premium of $0.86 per contract. The trade starts making money if shares in Gap decline 2.6% from the current price of $46.33 to breach the effective breakeven point on the downside at $45.14 by August expiration next week. The long put position may be an outright bearish bet on the stock or a protective stance to hedge a long position in the shares. Gap, Inc. is scheduled to report second-quarter earnings on August 22nd, the week following expiration of the Aug 16 ’13 options.

TWX - Time Warner Inc. – Options changing hands on media and entertainment company, Time Warner, today look for shares in the name to potentially come off the multi-year highs highs hit earlier in the session. Shares in TWX earlier rose 0.70% to $64.72 ahead of the company’s second-quarter earnings release prior to the opening bell on Wednesday. Shares in Time Warner are up nearly 60% since this time last year. A sizable trade…
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Sizable Call Spread Constructed On Pulte

 

Today’s tickers: PHM, GE & FST

PHM - PulteGroup, Inc. – Shares in the homebuilder are down 1.3% this morning ahead of the Fed’s decision regarding further quantitative easing to trade at $15.35, giving up some of Wednesday’s 7% rally that lifted the stock to a four-year high of $15.70, on an intraday basis. Pulte’s shares moved up sharply yesterday on an upgrade to ‘Buy’ from ‘Hold’ with an increased target price of $17.00 from $13.00 at Williams Financial Group. Today, a large call spread initiated on Pulte suggests one big options market participant is positioning for shares in the homebuilder to extend their impressive run during the next 16 months. Since roughly this time last year, the stock has more than quadrupled, rising from a low of $3.29 on October 4th, 2011, to yesterday’s high of $15.70. The long-term bullish bet established in PHM options this morning yields maximum possible profits if the stock gains more than 60% by January 2014 expiration. The strategist responsible for the trade appears to have purchased 15,000 calls at the Jan. 2014 $15 strike for a premium of $3.75 each and sold the same number of calls at the Jan. 2014 $25 strike at a premium of $0.95 each. Net premium paid for the position amounts to $2.80 per contract and establishes an effective breakeven price of $17.80. Thus, the trader starts making money if the shares rally 16% to top $17.80, and could rake in maximum potential profits of $7.20 per contract in the event PHM’s shares soar 63% to top $25.00 by expiration.

GE - General Electric Co. – Options on General Electric are more active than usual this morning ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision on whether to initiate a third round of bond buying to stimulate the economy. Heavy trading in GE Sep. 14 ’12 $22 strike weekly calls suggests one or more traders are preparing for shares in the name to potentially hit…
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Monday Market Movement – Pattern Recognition

Here’s a scary chart pattern for you from our Chart School:

Elliot Wave Trends points out that the S&P has fallen into a fractal patten that may be repeating the behavior of the great drop of ’08, right here, right now.  Of course patterns do SEEM to repeat themselves all the time – until they don’t – but it will be interesting this week and next to see if we follow-through with a flatline, followed by a drop to 1,000 from which we falsely back to 1,050 and then plunge to our doom as Santa foresakes us and we run all the way back down to our lows.

That’s where they lose me.  Charts are fun and all but I see no basis for going back to our lows as our lows were ridiculous and caused by panic-selling in a doomsday scenario.  Hard to imagine things will fall apart that badly between now and Jan earnings although I do believe we will have a rough time — just not that rough! 

Economy barrons surveyBarron’s surveyed Money Managers this weekend and they don’t seem to think things will be rough at all.  52% of those surveyed think there is NO WAY we will have a double dip recession.  76% believe that the decline in corporate profits has ended and 68% believe our GDP wil grow more than 2.5% in Q4 while just 10% believe it is possible for commodity pricing to fall in the next 6 months.  You know what they say about when everyone is on the same side of a bet of course! 

These are the people we give our money to – the biggest and "brightest" of hedge fund managers who control over $1Tn of assets under management.  Favorite stocks in the group are: MSFT, ABT, BAC, BRK.A, CVS, GE, GS, LEG and QCOM.  Stocks that are considered overvalued are: AIG, AAPL, GOOG, CAT, AMZN, C, GE, GMCR, VZ and YHOO.  Ony 7% think Asian stocks are heading lowed, just 1% less than 8% who feel oil is going down; 92% don’t feel oil will go down

Everybody likes Tech (just 0.9% think it will be the worst performing sector) and nobody likes the Financials (22.5% think it will be the worst performing sector) followed by Consumer Cyclicals (20.7%) and, oddly, Utilities (15.3%).  The sectors picked as the best performers for the next 6-12 months are Tech (18.9%), Energy (17.1%) and Health Care (17.1%).  Only…
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ValueWalk

Crescat Capital: The Reckoning Is Upon Us

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Decades of fiscal profligacy are culminating in an explosion of government debt that is poised to bring simmering monetary debasement to a boiling point. Central bank interventions have aided and abetted reckless government spending that has obfuscated poor underlying organic growth fundamentals. Instead of laying zero groundwork for future real economic growth, monetary authorities have fostered a euphoric investment environment with delusional asset valuations. Paradoxically, we are past the point of no return where the stimulative policies that have created this frenzy are the death knell for the economy. The world is suffering from a debt overdose. It now must face the inevitability of collapsing financial asset pri...



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Phil's Favorites

Benchmark Capital's Chetan Puttagunta Joins Me On Panic With Friends - As Software Eats The World - How Hungry Is Open Source?

 

Benchmark Capital’s Chetan Puttagunta Joins Me On Panic With Friends – As Software Eats The World – How Hungry Is Open Source?

Courtesy of Howard Lindzon

I am fascinated by the software sector and lately the open source category of software.

I started down this rabbit hole back in January 2019 and covered it here.

Wired magazine just put out this ‘opinion’ piece titled ‘...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Key Inflation Indicators Facing Big Test In September!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Inflation has long been a word that the Federal Reserve uses but the general markets have forgotten about.

Why? Well because it’s been virtually non-existent for years. Key indicators like commodities (i.e. copper) have been in a down-trends and the Materials Sector (XLB) has lagged… until this year.

In today’s chart 3-pack, we take a look at the Equal Weight Commodity Index, ...



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Zero Hedge

Sweden Dominates Drug-Deaths In Europe

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

As highlighted by the latest edition of the European Drug Report, Sweden is the country with the most drug-induced deaths per million of the population in Europe.

In 2018, 81 people died per million inhabitants, ahead of the United Kingdom's 76 drug-induced deaths per million. Finland and Ireland jointly had the third-highest death rate with 72 deaths per million.

You will find more infographics ...



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Politics

'Colossal Backdoor Bailout': Outrage as Pentagon Funnels Hundreds of Millions Meant for Covid Supplies to Private Defense Contractors

 

'Colossal Backdoor Bailout': Outrage as Pentagon Funnels Hundreds of Millions Meant for Covid Supplies to Private Defense Contractors

"If you can't get a Covid test or find an N95, it’s because these contractors stole from the American people to make faster jets and fancy uniforms."

By Jake Johnson

Secretary of Defense Mark Esper and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Army Gen. Mark Milley hold an end of year press conference at the Pentagon on December 20, 2019 in Arlington, Virginia. (Photo: Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

Instead of adhering to congressional inten...



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Biotech/COVID-19

How and when will we know that a COVID-19 vaccine is safe and effective?

 

How and when will we know that a COVID-19 vaccine is safe and effective?

How much longer must society wait for a vaccine? ANDRZEJ WOJCICKI/Getty Images

By William Petri, University of Virginia

With COVID-19 vaccines currently in the final phase of study, you’ve probably been wondering how the FDA will decide if a vaccine is safe and effective.

Based on the status of the Phase 3 trials currently underway, it i...



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Chart School

Stocks are not done yet - Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

There are a few times in history when a third party said this US paper (stocks, funds or bonds) is worthless.

Here is two.

1) 1965 Nixon Shock - The French said to US we do not want your paper dollars please pay us in gold. This of course led to the US going off the gold standard.

2) 2007 Bear Stern Fund Collapse - Investors said their funds collateral was worth much less than stated. This of course was the beginning of the great america housing bust of 2008.


In both cases it was stated .."look the Emperor is naked!"... (The Empe...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies Rarely Used To Launder Money, Fiat Preferred

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Shaurya Malwa via Decrypt.io,

Traditional channels continue to dominate the estimated $2 trillion global money laundering racket instead of cryptocurrencies, a report says.

In brief
  • Money laundering via cryptocurrencies is not a preferred tool for criminals, a report said...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

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Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

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Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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