Posts Tagged ‘FTSE’

Global Chart Reveiw Shows Key Inflection Point

Chart Review by Michael Clark

“By a continuing process of inflation, government can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens.”

    -- John Maynard Keynes

SO, IS THIS FINALLY THE 'REAL' CORRECTION?

What a week it was.  The Bears gave the Bulls some payback.  Obama got a wake-up call.  And the banks got a well-deserved scare (and we hope they will get a well-deserved hair cut).

The markets reacted, as one might expect, with selling.  Actually, the selling began before the Massachusetts election and before Obama sent a shot across the Goldman Sach's bow.  Last week Intel announced surprisingly strong earnings; and the stock started up and then sank.  For the past half-year investor behavior had been the reverse: a buying spree for any stock that did not lose as much as it might have — beating 'Street expectations' that had been dumbed down over and over again during a quarter so that the company could report 'surprising' strength.  Suddenly, now, even good earnings are being greeted with selling.  Then came Massachusetts — wasn't that a Bee Gees' song?
 

All the lights went out in Massachusetts

Anyway, readers want to know where the markets stand today, after the sell-off this week.  My view of it — my 'view', not my gut-feeling — is that we are, so far, merely correcting from an over-extended rally.  This rally has been bizarre, to say the least.  This has been a 'fear rally' — usually the 'fear' side of the equation is when selling comes in, 'greed' driving the expansion.  But fear of systemic failure has driven this rally; and Ben Bernannke has been the captain sailing the 'Boat of Fear',   Ben's logic — that more debt will solve the insolvency crisis — has a shadow side, the logic that a collapse in stock prices will result in systemic failure, international chaos, revolution, repression…made him believe that preservation of the status quo was requiired, at any price.  A 'make-believe' recovery could be jump-started, perhaps, if the Fed could just stimulate (and simulate) another asset-bubble.  After all – that is how his mentor and predecessor, Alan Greenspan, had become the darling of the coctail party crowd, leading member of Time Magazine's 'Committee to Save the World';
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Wednesday When Wen Chips In

China is leading the markets this morning.

Word is that Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao may announce new stimulus measures tomorrow, adding to a 4 Trillion yuan ($585 billion) spending plan as the government tries to revive growth in the world’s third-biggest economy.  Wen will announce “a new stimulus package” in his annual address to the nation’s legislature, former statistics bureau head Li Deshui told reporters in Beijing today.  That was enough to send the Shanghai soaring 6.1% with the Hang Seng jumping right to the 2.5% rule, finishing at the high of the day in a bullish move up

Copper futures, which we have been watching closely, went limit up in Shanghai trading, oil jumped back to $42.50 and the Baltic Dry Index hit 2,034, a very far cry from the 700s we were seeing in the Fall. China will spend more on infrastructure and to boost manufacturing in addition to the stimulus package announced in November, Reuters reported today, citing an unidentified official at the country’s top economic planning agency.  Wen’s speech to the legislative meeting, which starts at 9 a.m. tomorrow, will be the equivalent of a U.S. State of the Union address, setting priorities for the year.  Keep in mind that China's GDP is "just" $3.5Tn, a $600Bn stimulus from China's leadership is like a $2.6Tn stimulus bill from us, not the $787Bn Washington is wringing it's hands over.

The Nikkei "only" gained 0.85% on the day but that doesn't really tell the tale as the index jumped 200 points off the bottom (2.8%) as Bank of Japan board member Miyako Suda said today the central bank should signal that it’s prepared to take “bold” measures to counter the recession. Japan’s lower-house of parliament approved a bill that will free up about 5 trillion yen ($50 billion) for economic stimulus.  This kept the dollar from falling below 100 yen, which is a line Japan would really like to avoid crossing again. 

This suits us just fine as the final play of the day, at 3:34 was: "Now is a good point to reload on those SKF plays.  The $170 puts are back to $11 (from $14), the $120 puts are back to $1.45, the $270 calls can be sold for $9.70.  Once again we have an air pocket under the gains, it’s a
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Testy Tuesday – A Very Dangerous Line in the Sand

Well we are up in the pre-markets (7am) – that's something

Interestingly the global markets took our dip rather well.  The Shanghai fell 2.8%, the Hang Seng gave back yesterday's 3.5% gain, India hit the 2.5% rule, and the Nikkei fell 2.2% – a bad day but not worse than ours, as is often the case in Asia.  The DAX is, of course, leading Europe lower with a 2% loss into lunch but the CAC and FTSE are down just a point.  I had a busy evening doing a Big Chart Review and indulging in my political rant of the week about the budget fiasco but maybe that will be a weekend article as my comments alone in the members section were over 2 pages.

We went mildly bullish into yesterday's close, mainly by covering our long index puts, looking for at least a bounce off what is now a 1,100 point drop since February 9th, when we did our previous Big Chart Review.  We are actually 14% below the 8,280 on the Dow that we held that morning so another 1% down to go before we hit our next bounce, just over the 7,000 mark.  The gravity of the 5% rule dictates that we are more likely to go down than up now that we blew through 12.5% and finished at yesterday's low and getting back to that 12.5% line (7,245) will be our challenge for the day.  On the S&P we'll be looking for 760 to be taken back but we are just a hair over 738, which is the 15% drop off that 2/9 open.  The Nasdaq is about 2% over 1,352 and just under the 12.5% line at 1,392 so we'll be looking for leadership there to the upside. 

The NYSE is our most worrying index.  They are aleady down more than 15% (4,675) at 4,633 and the Russell (see David Fry's chart) is the NYSE's partner in crime, failing the 15%, 400 mark by 5 points already.  So it's going to be an easy day to look for a turn as we need the NYSE to break over 4,675 and 4,790 is our next stop.  The Nasdaq needs to hold 1,352 and get back over 1,392 and the Russell must break over 400 and return to 411 in…
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Phil's Favorites

How palm oil became the world's most hated, most used fat source

 

How palm oil became the world’s most hated, most used fat source

Oil palm fruit in North Aceh, Indonesia. Fachrul Reza / Barcroft Media via Getty Images

Courtesy of Jonathan E. Robins, Michigan Technological University

Palm oil is everywhere today: in food, soap, lipstick, even newspaper ink. It’s been called the world’s most hated crop because of its association with de...



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Biotech/COVID-19

The FDA's weak drug manufacturing oversight is a potentially deadly problem

 

The FDA’s weak drug manufacturing oversight is a potentially deadly problem

Though drug recalls are relatively uncommon in the U.S., reduced inspections increase the likelihood of manufacturing errors that slip through the cracks. AP Photo/Rafiq Maqbool

Courtesy of Adrian V. Hernandez, University of Connecticut and C. Michael White, University of Connecticut

The ...



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Zero Hedge

Buzzfeed Is Finally Going Public In SPAC Merger Valued At $1.5 Billion

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Update (1100ET): At long last, Buzzfeed is finally going public, a crowning career accomplishment for founder and CEO Jonah Peretti.

As we reported earlier, Peretti confirmed on Thursday morning that Buzzfeed had agreed to merge with the obscure 890 5th Avenue Partners (yes, it's named after the fictional headquarters of the Avengers), which raised $250 million in an IPO earlier this year.

The SPAC is led by CEO Emiliano Calemzuk and executive chairman Adam Rothstein, and counts NBCUniversal ad sale chief Linda YAccarino, former Buzzfeed President Greg Coleman, Time W...



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Digital Currencies

Will Bitcoin Crash the Stock Market?

 

Will Bitcoin Crash the Stock Market?

Courtesy of 

When the S&P 500 fell in March last year, it brought Bitcoin down with it. So if stocks can bring down Bitcoin, it’s reasonable to ask if Bitcoin can bring down stocks.*

If you thought the Bitcoin run-up to 60k was emblematic of investor** euphoria, then you probably wondered what would happen if it were to come crashing down. Would that take other high-flying areas of the market down with it?

It might be premature, but as of now, the answer is no.

...



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Chart School

RTT Plus Bulletin

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

RTT Plus private blog answer these questions over the last two weeks.

Ending: 2021-06-19

- Metal stocks very bullish after gold smash
- FED taper talk vs Basel 3
- Dollar devaluatioin before end of 2021
- COVID, Vaccine insight (off topic)
- The next play for the deep sate (off topic)
- The debt loaded USA can not break these economic stats


RTT Plus membership required to review.

RTT Plus members can include chart building services if you wish. If you you do not want chart building services select 'RTT Plus' only during the membership sign up process.

Sign up now!






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Politics

The Ukraine Fallacies (with Victor Rud)

 

The Ukraine Fallacies (with Victor Rud)

Americans are confused about the history of Ukraine. That's just how Russia wants it.

Courtesy of Greg Olear, at PREVAIL

Greg is the author of Dirty Rubles: An Introduction to Trump/Russia 

...

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Promotions

Live Webinar with Phil on Option Strategies

 

June is TD Bank's Option Education Month, and today (Thursday, June 10) at 1 pm EST, Phil will speak with host Bryan Rogers about selling options and various option strategies that we use here at Phil's Stock World. Don't miss this event!

Click here to register for TD's live webinar with Phil.

 

...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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