Posts Tagged ‘Gary Shilling’

The Chances of a Double Dip

The Chances of a Double Dip 

Courtesy of John Mauldin at Thoughts From The Frontline 

I am on a plane (yet again) from Zurich to Mallorca, where I will meet with my European and South American partners, have some fun, and relax before heading to Denmark and London. With the mad rush to finish my book (more on that later) and a hectic schedule this week, I have not had time to write a letter. But never fear, I leave you in the best of hands. Dr. Gary Shilling graciously agreed to condense his September letter, where he looks at the risk of another recession in the US.

I look forward at the beginning of each month to getting Gary’s latest letter. I often print it out and walk away from my desk to spend some quality time reading his thoughts. He is one of my "must-read" analysts. I always learn something quite useful and insightful. I am grateful that he has let me share this with you.

If you are interested in getting his letter, his website is down being redesigned, but you can write for more information at insight@agaryshilling.com. If you want to subscribe (for $275), you can call 888-346-7444. Tell them that you read about it in Thoughts from the Frontline, and you will get an extra one month on your subscription. And now, let turn to Gary.

The Chances of a Double Dip

By Gary Shilling

Investor attitudes have reversed abruptly in recent months. As late as last March, most translated the year-long robust rise in stocks, foreign currencies, commodities and the weakness in Treasury bonds that had commenced a year earlier into robust economic growth – the "V" recovery.

As a result, investors early this year believed that rapid job creation and the restoration of consumer confidence would spur retail spending. They also saw the housing sector’s evidence of stabilization giving way to revival, and strong export growth also propelling the economy. Capital spending, led by high tech, was another area of strength, many believed.

Not So Fast

But a funny, or not so funny, thing happened on the way to super-charged, capacity-straining growth. In April, investors began to realize that the eurozone financial crisis, which had been heralded at the beginning of the year by the decline in the euro, was a serious threat to…
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SHILLING: WE’RE IN A WORLD OF “CHRONIC DEFLATION”

SHILLING: WE’RE IN A WORLD OF “CHRONIC DEFLATION”

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

Few people have nailed the deflationary environment as well as Gary Shilling. Shilling was one of the few people who foresaw the housing crisis and the equity market catastrophe in 2008 and although he remained bearish in 2009 he has been largely correct with regards to the macro picture. He believes we’re in for a prolonged bout with deflation and says Obama’s economic policies are only making matters worse.

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Gary Shilling Says Yuan Move Is Risky

Gary Shilling Says Yuan Move Is Risky

Courtesy of Edward Harrison at Credit Writedowns

Gary Shilling talked with Bloomberg about the implications of China’s recent currency move and the European debt crisis. True to form, he is bearish – both on the Chinese move and on the European debt situation. His view is that the Yuan move comes at the wrong time given that the European debt crisis and fiscal austerity is already poised to slow global growth.

While I agree with his comments on the risks to the Eurozone and the Chinese economy, I will defer to Marc Chandler’s views on China’s forex move who has fewer negative things to say about the move. 


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GARY SHILLING’S FAVORITE 2010 TRADES

GARY SHILLING’S FAVORITE 2010 TRADES

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist  

The New Mutate Britain Exhibition One Foot In The Grove Is Launched

Gary Shilling has become infamous in the last few years for predicting the credit crunch and the bear market.  The bearish investor still believes deflation is the dominant force at work and that the credit crunch is in the process of unfolding.  But he isn’t bearish about everything.  The following are his 6 buys:

  1. Buy treasury bonds – the safehaven trade will return.
  2. Buy income-producing securities – high quality dividend names will be a safe place to hide.
  3. Buy consumer staples and foods – consumers won’t stop buying the necessities.
  4. Buy ’small luxuries’ – consumers are trading down.
  5. Buy the U. S. dollar – still the world’s safehaven currency.
  6. Buy eurodollar futures.

Unfortunately for market bulls Shilling is generally bearish about stocks and the global economy.  His 11 sells:

High angle view of a globe on a heap of Indian banknotes and Euro banknotes

  1. Sell U.S. stocks in general – U.S. stocks are just too expensive.
  2. Sell home-builder and selected related stocks – home prices will fall 10% in 2010 and the stocks will tank with it.
  3. Sell big-ticket consumer discretionary equities -  consumers aren’t buying luxury goods due to the trade down.
  4. Sell banks & other financial institutions – the days of big bank profits and bailouts are over.
  5. Sell consumer lenders’ stocks – consumers will continue to deleverage.
  6. Sell many low- and old-tech capital-equipment producers.
  7. If you plan to sell a home or investment house, do so yesterday.
  8. Sell junk bonds.
  9. Sell commercial real estate – the real estate bubble is a slow motion train wreck.
  10. Sell most commodities – the dollar rally will crush commodities.
  11. Sell developing country stocks and bonds – there will be no decoupling.

 


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Zero Hedge

Maduro Wins Vote Boycotted By Opposition As US Threatens Sanctions

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Socialist President Nicolas Maduro won another six-year term in power over the weekend in a vote that western countries have widely denounced as illegitimate.

The victory hands Maduro sole ownership of the country's worsening economic crisis, as Bloomberg put it. The socialist regime ignored calls to suspend the vote, and even tolerated a challenge from former governor Henri Falcon, who won about 21% of votes in an election that saw 48% t...



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Phil's Favorites

Why China can't meet Trump's $200 billion trade demand

 

Via Pixabay

 

Why China can't meet Trump's $200 billion trade demand

Courtesy of Amitrajeet A. Batabyal, Rochester Institute of Technology

President Donald Trump has demanded China cut its trade deficit with the U.S. by US$200 billion by 2020 or face a host of punishing tariffs. After recent talks with the U.S., China ...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap May 20, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

This was a generally quiet week in the senior indexes, consolidating some of the prior week’s move up.   That said the Russell 2000 had some very nice action with a “breakout!”.  Otherwise pretty quiet on the news front except for TRADE WARS!(tm):

On Thursday, several news outlets reported that China had made an offer to cut its trade surplus with the U.S. by $200 billion, but a China official on Friday denied that an offer had been made.

For the week the S&P 500 closed down 0.5% while the NASDAQ fell 0.7%.  The Russell 2000 diverged, gaining 1.3%.

The only major economic report this week was retail sales which gained 0.3% in April...



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Biotech

Could this be the year for a Canadian Breakthrough Prize in Life Sciences?

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Could this be the year for a Canadian Breakthrough Prize in Life Sciences?

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

In 2013, Kyoto University’s Shinya Yamanaka was awarded one of the first Breakthrough Prizes in Life Sciences for his discovery of “induced” stem cells that enabled researchers to convert adult cells back into stem cells.

The Breakthrough Prize is not to be sneezed at. Founded in 2013, the prize “honours transformative advances toward understanding living systems and extending human life.” It’s also the most financially attractive aw...



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Insider Scoop

36 Biggest Movers From Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Gainers
  • Quotient Limited (NASDAQ: QTNT) rose 29 percent to close at $6.05 following commencement of EU blood grouping field trial.
  • Mannatech, Incorporated (NASDAQ: MTEX) climbed 22.64 percent to close at $19.50 on Friday after the company reported commencement of modified Dutch auction cash tender for up to $16 million of common stock.
  • Shineco, Inc. (NASDAQ: TYHT) gained 19.41 percent to close at $2.03 following Q3 results. Shineco posted Q3 earnings of $0.21 per share on sales of $13.3 million.
  • ...


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Digital Currencies

5 Factors That Drive Bitcoin's Ups & Downs

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

By Kayla Matthews via Hackernoon.com

The price of Bitcoin has been wildly volatile. From November to December 2017, it increased by 223 percent. It fell by 59 percent between January and February 2018, increased by 64 percent from February to March and then dropped again during March by 40 percent.

While this isn&r...



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ValueWalk

Buffett At His Best

By csinvesting. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Bear with me as I share a bit of my history that helped me create SkyVu and the Battle Bears games. The University of Nebraska gave me my first job after college. I mostly pushed TV carts around, edited videos for professors or the occasional speaker event. One day, Warren Buffet came to campus to speak to the College of Business. I didn’t think much of this speech at the time but I saved it for some reason. 15 years later, as a founder of my own company, I watch and listen to this particular speech every year to remind myself of the fundamentals and values Mr. Buffett looks for. He’s addressing business students at his alma mater, so I think his style here is a bit more ‘close to home’ than in his other speeches. Hopefully many of you find great value in this video like I have. Sorry for the VHS...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

 

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

Courtesy of Kimble Charting

 

The definition of a bull market or bull trends widely vary. One of the more common criteria for bull markets is determined by the asset being above or below its 200 day moving average.

In my humble opinion, each index above remains in a bull trend, as triple support (200-day moving averages, 2-year rising support lines, and February lows) are still in play ...



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Members' Corner

Cambridge Analytica and the 2016 Election: What you need to know (updated)

 

"If you want to fundamentally reshape society, you first have to break it." ~ Christopher Wylie

[Interview: Cambridge Analytica whistleblower: 'We spent $1m harvesting millions of Facebook profiles' – video]

"You’ve probably heard by now that Cambridge Analytica, which is backed by the borderline-psychotic Mercer family and was formerly chaired by Steve Bannon, had a decisive role in manipulating voters on a one-by-one basis – using their own personal data to push them toward voting ...



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Mapping The Market

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

Via Jean-Luc

How propagandist beat science – they did it for the tobacco industry and now it's in favor of the energy companies:

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

The original tobacco strategy involved several lines of attack. One of these was to fund research that supported the industry and then publish only the results that fit the required narrative. “For instance, in 1954 the TIRC distributed a pamphlet entitled ‘A Scientific Perspective on the Cigarette Controversy’ to nearly 200,000 doctors, journalists, and policy-makers, in which they emphasized favorable research and questioned results supporting the contrary view,” say Weatherall and co, who call this approach biased production.

A second approach promoted independent research that happened to support ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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