Posts Tagged ‘Gary Shilling’

The Chances of a Double Dip

The Chances of a Double Dip 

Courtesy of John Mauldin at Thoughts From The Frontline 

I am on a plane (yet again) from Zurich to Mallorca, where I will meet with my European and South American partners, have some fun, and relax before heading to Denmark and London. With the mad rush to finish my book (more on that later) and a hectic schedule this week, I have not had time to write a letter. But never fear, I leave you in the best of hands. Dr. Gary Shilling graciously agreed to condense his September letter, where he looks at the risk of another recession in the US.

I look forward at the beginning of each month to getting Gary’s latest letter. I often print it out and walk away from my desk to spend some quality time reading his thoughts. He is one of my "must-read" analysts. I always learn something quite useful and insightful. I am grateful that he has let me share this with you.

If you are interested in getting his letter, his website is down being redesigned, but you can write for more information at insight@agaryshilling.com. If you want to subscribe (for $275), you can call 888-346-7444. Tell them that you read about it in Thoughts from the Frontline, and you will get an extra one month on your subscription. And now, let turn to Gary.

The Chances of a Double Dip

By Gary Shilling

Investor attitudes have reversed abruptly in recent months. As late as last March, most translated the year-long robust rise in stocks, foreign currencies, commodities and the weakness in Treasury bonds that had commenced a year earlier into robust economic growth – the "V" recovery.

As a result, investors early this year believed that rapid job creation and the restoration of consumer confidence would spur retail spending. They also saw the housing sector’s evidence of stabilization giving way to revival, and strong export growth also propelling the economy. Capital spending, led by high tech, was another area of strength, many believed.

Not So Fast

But a funny, or not so funny, thing happened on the way to super-charged, capacity-straining growth. In April, investors began to realize that the eurozone financial crisis, which had been heralded at the beginning of the year by the decline in the euro, was a serious threat to…
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SHILLING: WE’RE IN A WORLD OF “CHRONIC DEFLATION”

SHILLING: WE’RE IN A WORLD OF “CHRONIC DEFLATION”

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

Few people have nailed the deflationary environment as well as Gary Shilling. Shilling was one of the few people who foresaw the housing crisis and the equity market catastrophe in 2008 and although he remained bearish in 2009 he has been largely correct with regards to the macro picture. He believes we’re in for a prolonged bout with deflation and says Obama’s economic policies are only making matters worse.

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Gary Shilling Says Yuan Move Is Risky

Gary Shilling Says Yuan Move Is Risky

Courtesy of Edward Harrison at Credit Writedowns

Gary Shilling talked with Bloomberg about the implications of China’s recent currency move and the European debt crisis. True to form, he is bearish – both on the Chinese move and on the European debt situation. His view is that the Yuan move comes at the wrong time given that the European debt crisis and fiscal austerity is already poised to slow global growth.

While I agree with his comments on the risks to the Eurozone and the Chinese economy, I will defer to Marc Chandler’s views on China’s forex move who has fewer negative things to say about the move. 


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GARY SHILLING’S FAVORITE 2010 TRADES

GARY SHILLING’S FAVORITE 2010 TRADES

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist  

The New Mutate Britain Exhibition One Foot In The Grove Is Launched

Gary Shilling has become infamous in the last few years for predicting the credit crunch and the bear market.  The bearish investor still believes deflation is the dominant force at work and that the credit crunch is in the process of unfolding.  But he isn’t bearish about everything.  The following are his 6 buys:

  1. Buy treasury bonds – the safehaven trade will return.
  2. Buy income-producing securities – high quality dividend names will be a safe place to hide.
  3. Buy consumer staples and foods – consumers won’t stop buying the necessities.
  4. Buy ’small luxuries’ – consumers are trading down.
  5. Buy the U. S. dollar – still the world’s safehaven currency.
  6. Buy eurodollar futures.

Unfortunately for market bulls Shilling is generally bearish about stocks and the global economy.  His 11 sells:

High angle view of a globe on a heap of Indian banknotes and Euro banknotes

  1. Sell U.S. stocks in general – U.S. stocks are just too expensive.
  2. Sell home-builder and selected related stocks – home prices will fall 10% in 2010 and the stocks will tank with it.
  3. Sell big-ticket consumer discretionary equities -  consumers aren’t buying luxury goods due to the trade down.
  4. Sell banks & other financial institutions – the days of big bank profits and bailouts are over.
  5. Sell consumer lenders’ stocks – consumers will continue to deleverage.
  6. Sell many low- and old-tech capital-equipment producers.
  7. If you plan to sell a home or investment house, do so yesterday.
  8. Sell junk bonds.
  9. Sell commercial real estate – the real estate bubble is a slow motion train wreck.
  10. Sell most commodities – the dollar rally will crush commodities.
  11. Sell developing country stocks and bonds – there will be no decoupling.

 


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Phil's Favorites

The Great Dispersion

 

The Great Dispersion

Courtesy of Scott Galloway, No Mercy/No Malice@profgalloway

The pandemic’s most enduring feature will be as an accelerant of existing trends. The trend that encapsulates the greatest reshuffling of stakeholder value in recent history is … the Great Dispersion. Similar to prior macro trends like globalization and digitization, it offers enormous opportunity, but also real threats.

 

In 1997, I was ask...



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Biotech/COVID-19

New DIY contact tracing app expands the fight against COVID-19, using the science of memory

 

New DIY contact tracing app expands the fight against COVID-19, using the science of memory

This app is different. Designed by psychologists, the free and anonymous web-based app can help you remember who you came in contact with. Ani Ka via Getty Images

Courtesy of Jacqueline R. Evans, Florida International University; Christian Meissner, Iowa State University; ...



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ValueWalk

Stephanie Kelton: Stop Worrying About National Deficits

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Tomorrow evening, Bernie Sanders’ economic advisor Stephanie Kelton, a leading voice behind the push to spend more on progressive priorities, is appearing in the Intelligence Squared U.S. debate on the motion “Stop Worrying About National Deficits.”

Q3 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Economic Advisor Stephanie Kelton Debates About The About National Deficits

She's arguing for the motion alongside James Galbraith, who was Executive Director of the Joint Economic Committee in Congress. Arguing against them are Todd Buchhol...



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Zero Hedge

Restaurants Slashed Jobs Last Month

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

By Jonathan Maze of Restaurant Business

The restaurant industry lost 17,400 jobs in November, according to new data from the U.S. Department of Labor released on Friday.

It was the first monthly decline in the number of restaurant workers since April, suggesting that a renewed virus and state shutdowns of dine-in service are taking their toll.

The data is likely to increase pressure on Congress and the president to approve a new stimulus package, one that includes specific aid to independent restaurants that have been devastated by the pandemic.

The industry had been adding jobs at a rapid clip since May, as restaurants reopened dining rooms and expanded while consumers grew more comfortable with dining out. But it remains far below its pre-pande...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Is The US Dollar About To Reach A Melting Point?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

It’s been 20 years since the last major peak in the US Dollar. Could the greenback’s latest turn lower confirm another peak?

Today’s chart takes a macro view of the US Dollar Index and highlights the long-term down-trend at each point (1). As you can see, the buck is on a topsy turvy ride, bouncing up and down within this down-trend.

The latest bottom formed after the financial crisis and has seen the US Dollar trade within a 9 year up-trend channel marked by each (2). This gave bulls some confidence that the US Dollar may have formed a long-term bottomȂ...



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Politics

Ignoring Warnings His Election Lies Could Get People Killed, Trump Posts 46-Minute Rant Full of 'Unhinged' Falsehoods

 

Ignoring Warnings His Election Lies Could Get People Killed, Trump Posts 46-Minute Rant Full of 'Unhinged' Falsehoods

"Georgia elections director yesterday: Trump's rhetoric is going to get people killed. Trump today: here's 46 minutes of unhinged conspiracy theories."

Courtesy of Jake Johnson, Common Dreams

Activists march through the city of Detroit on November 7, 2020 to denounce President Donald Trump's false claims of voter fraud. (Photo: Adam J. Dewey/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

Just days...



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Chart School

Gold Chart Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Gold swing trade is due, lets review some charts to see if it is a viable move.

The seasonal period of gold is now upon us, gold should advance for the next 3 months.

Gold Gann Angle Chart ...



Gold Channel Chart .. close up!



 

Gold Channel Chart
 


Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination of Gann Ang...



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Digital Currencies

Five Reasons Why Bitcoin is Going Up

 

Five Reasons Why Bitcoin is Going Up

Courtesy of 

Call it the “Respectability Rally”…

A few reasons for Bitcoin’s return to the record highs. It’s about $18,500 as of this writing, matching the previous highs from 2017’s original explosion.

Reason one: It’s going up because it’s going up. Don’t scoff, this is the reason most things in the markets happen and then the explanations are called for afterwards. I’m in financial television, I have literally watched this process occur in real-time. The more something moves in a given direction, the more peop...



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Mapping The Market

COVID-19 Forces More Than Half of Asset Management Firms to Accelerate Adoption of Digital Marketing Technology

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

There is no doubt that the use of technology to support client engagement initiatives brings both opportunities and threats but this has been brought into sharp focus this year with the COVID-19 pandemic.

The crisis has brought to the fore the need for firms to enable flexibility in client engagement – the expectation that providers will communicate to clients on their terms, at their speed and frequency and on their preferred channels, is now a given. This is even more critical when clients are experiencing unparalleled anxiety from both market conditions and their own personal circumstances.

...

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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

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Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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