Hardly.  I don’t have to convince many readers at Credit Writedowns or Naked Capitalism that there is a darker scenario which threatens recovery.  Many of you see this according to preliminary results from a recent poll I conducted. Nevertheless, let me use this post as a reminder of that downside scenario with some commentary from economists.  David Rosenberg is not the only major bearish economist that sees a very troubling economic outlook.

First, a post by Wolfgang Munchau in the FT reveals that much of the economic data of late has actually been disappointing despite the rally in shares and corporate bonds.

Last week, the green shoots shrivelled. In South Korea, China and Germany, exports were declining once again. In the US, the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book said “economic conditions remained weak or deteriorated further during the period from mid-April through May”.

The March signs of revival turned out to be little more than a technical inventory correction, with no change in the underlying trend. The world economy is still contracting, though perhaps not quite as fast as at the start of the year.

As an analysis by economists Barry Eichengreen and Kevin O’Rourke* shows, global industrial output is still on the same trajectory as it was during 1930. The only question is whether we can avoid 1931 and 1932.

Munchau argues we can avoid a 1931 and 1932 scenario only if we see a marked change in the present policy response in major economies.  But, Munchau’s analysis begs the question as to why he finds the situation so dire for the global economy.  Why does Wolfgang Munchau think