Posts Tagged ‘Gluskin Sheff’

Market Commentary From David Rosenberg: Just Call It “Deflationary Growth”

Market Commentary From David Rosenberg: Just Call It "Deflationary Growth"

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

If the way to classify the September stock move as "a confounding ramp on disappointing economic news" gets you stumped, here is Rosenberg to provide some insight. Just call is "deflationary growth or something like that." And as for the NBER’s pronouncement of the recession being over, Rosie has a few words for that as well: "this recovery, with its sub 1% pace of real final sales, goes down as the weakest on record."

It’s a real commentary that the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) decision on the historical record mattered more than the actual economic data. The National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB) housing market index is the latest data point in an array of September releases coming in below expected:

  • Philly Fed index: actual -0.7 versus 0.5 expected
  • Empire manufacturing index: actual 4.14 versus 8 expected
  • NAHB: actual 13 versus 14 expected
  • University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: actual 66.6 versus 70 expected

It’s early days yet, and these are only surveys, but it would seem as though the economy remains very sluggish as we head towards the third-quarter finish line.

It is truly difficult to come up with an explanation for the breakout, which in turn makes it difficult to ascertain its veracity. If we are seeing a re-assessment or risk or a major asset allocation move, then why did Treasury yields rally 4bps (and led lower by the “real rate”, which is a bond market proxy for “real growth expectations”)?

If it was a pro-growth move, why did copper sell off and the CRB flatten? And where is the volume? Still lacking? So we have a breakout with little or no confirmation. All we can see is that many sentiment measures have swung violently to the upside in recent weeks and the VIX index is all the way back to 21x —- somewhat contrary negative signposts for the bulls.

But the price action is undeniable and the bulls are in fact winning the battle in September, a typically negative seasonal month, after a bloody August. The fact that bonds rallied yesterday is a tad bizarre and perhaps the explanation, if there is one, is that the equity market is enamoured with the cash leaving the corporate balance sheet in favour of dividend payouts and share buybacks and


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USING THE ECRI AS AN INVESTMENT TOOL

USING THE ECRI AS AN INVESTMENT TOOL

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Great tool here from David Rosenberg at Gluskin Sheff.  As we note on a weekly basis the ECRI’s leading index has proven to be a fairly prescient market indicator.  Mr. Rosenberg did the legwork for us and shows us how to utilize this tool in our investment plans. He broke down the historical market performance based on the ECRI’s varying phases. As noted last Friday, we are clearly in a Phase 3 slowdown according to the ECRI.  Therefore, it can be expected that the S&P will remain volatile and likely underperform:

ECRI USING THE ECRI AS AN INVESTMENT TOOL

(Right click for larger image)

Source: Gluskin Sheff 


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THE BEST APPROACH TO 2010: THE OPPOSITE OF 2009?

THE BEST APPROACH TO 2010: THE OPPOSITE OF 2009?

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

A recent note from David Rosenberg highlights the schizophrenic market we have been experiencing over the last few years.  What works one year quickly stops working the next year.  Thus far in 2010 that trend has been true again.  After a very bullish 2009, Rosenberg now thinks the market could be entering a bearish phase in 2010.  And that means, what worked in 2009 likely won’t work in 2010:

“It is interesting that heading into 2008 all you had to do as an investor was flip everything around from market performance in 2007 — across just about every asset class. Then in 2009, what you wanted to do was the exact opposite as what worked in 2008 (see Table 1 below). Here we are in 2010 and it seems to us as if, yet again, what worked the year before is not going to work in the coming year and vice versa. Take emerging markets for example — most of them doubled in 2009, and here we are in the first month of 2010 and the MSCI excluding Japan Asian index is already trading at its lowest level in two months. The region still trades at 2x book value versus the 1.8x historical norm so don’t think for a second that we have approached some oversold low … at least not yet.”

2010 THE BEST APPROACH TO 2010: THE OPPOSITE OF 2009?

Source: Gluskin Sheff

 


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Zero Hedge

Not So Fast: China Will Not Allow Use Of Yuan As Bargaining Chip To Resolve Trade War

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

With market optimism brimming that it's just a matter of days, if not hours, before the US and China reach a truce in the ongoing trade war - even though there have been countless accurate analyses in recent weeks explaining why an actual trade deal is impossible since the object of contention is not trade at all but China's creeping technological dominance, something which Beijing will never voluntarily concede - Beijing has poured cold water over expectations of an imminent deal when China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on Wednesday that Chi...



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Phil's Favorites

Why opposing the man Trump wants as head of the World Bank might just work

 

Why opposing the man Trump wants as head of the World Bank might just work

The race is on to find a new head of the World Bank following Jim Yong Kim’s resignation. EPA-EFE/Made Nagi

Courtesy of John J Stremlau, University of the Witwatersrand

US President Donald Trump’s nomination of his Treasury Undersecretary David Malpass to become President of the World Bank Group and CEO of the World Bank should be seen more as an opportunity than a problem by African leaders and ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Are Bank Stocks Ready to Right-Side the Bull Market?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The bank sector is a good indicator of the health of the broader stock market.

Bulls like to see the banks in a leadership role because it indicates that the economy is doing well. But when they begin to lose momentum and underperform, it often leads to pullbacks and corrections.

As you can see in today’s chart, the Bank Index (BKX) began to stumble well before the recent correction. And that bearish divergence was a warning to market bulls – similar to the 2015-2016 setup.

On the other hand, the recent rally has given bulls an opportunity to right-side th...



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Insider Scoop

3 Texas Roadhouse Analysts Agree: Wait For A Better Entry Point In Stock

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related TXRH Texas Roadhouse's Q4 Earnings Preview Earnings Scheduled For February 19, 2019 ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

ValueWalk

Whitney Tilson Likes Activision Blizzard On Fortnite Mania

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Whitney Tilson‘s email to investors discussing Activision; Snapchat; TradeStops; and hiring writer or editor .

1) I’m going to start sending out short blurbs on stocks that are on my radar screen that I think are interesting enough to do a second round of research. To be clear: these are NOT stocks I own or am recommending – just ones that pass my initial five-minute screen (which few do these days!) that I’m doing some more work on. That means reading the latest quarterly earnings and annual report, investor presentation, any write-ups on ValueInvestorsClub, SumZero or Seeking ...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Thursday, 02 August 2018, 07:48:20 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: $600 BN interest payments for US gov, print baby print



Date Found: Sunday, 05 August 2018, 09:22:26 PM

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Comment: Hire FED interest rates always brings double trouble



Date Found: Monday, 06 August ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptos Are Surging: Bitcoin, Ethereum Hit One-Month Highs As Institutions Dip Toes

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Cryptocurrencies are surging while the US equity markets take the day off. Ethereum is up over 18% from Friday's 'close' and the rest of the crypto space is a sea of green. While no immediate catalyst (headline or technical level) is clear, increasing chatter over institutional investors dipping their toes in the space have prompted an extension of the positive trend.

A sea of green...

Source: Coin360

Ethereum is leading the charge follow...



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Biotech

Cancer: new DNA sequencing technique analyses tumours cell by cell to fight disease

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Cancer: new DNA sequencing technique analyses tumours cell by cell to fight disease

Illustration of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, showing lymphoblasts in blood. Kateryna Kon/Shutterstock

Courtesy of Alba Rodriguez-Meira, University of Oxford and Adam Mead, University of Oxford

...

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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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