Posts Tagged ‘governments’

The Straight Scoop

The Straight Scoop

Courtesy of Michael Panzner at Financial Armageddon 

Red backhoe scooper

You’ve heard what the clueless analysts, disingenuous policymakers, conflicted Wall Street paper-pushers, and corporate cheerleaders have had to say about the so-called recovery. Now listen to what one of the world’s largest private companies — which presumbaly means they don’t have to worry too much about "managing" expectations or convincing the masses to believe in financial fairytales — has to say about where things stand:

"Cargill Sounds Warning of a Slow Recovery" (Financial Times)

Cargill, the world’s largest agricultural commodities trader, on Tuesday warned that the global economic recovery had yet to gain traction as it reported a second straight decline in annual profit.

As economists debate the merits of government intervention to avoid a double-dip recession, the company said the economic outlook was uncertain.

“More uncertainty lies ahead, for the world has yet to transition from a policy-stimulated upturn to a structurally sustained recovery,” Cargill said in its annual report. “Europe’s debt crisis and China’s monetary tightening are moving markets. Governments have made promises that their economies cannot fulfil. Regulations are changing in unpredictable ways.”

The Minnesota-based company has a unique vantage on global economic trends, trading commodities from corn to oil to salt with employees in 66 countries. 


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Do sovereign debt ratios matter?

Do sovereign debt ratios matter?

Courtesy of Michael Pettis at China Financial Markets 

Flags flutter in front of the headquarters of Spain's largest savings bank La Caixa in Barcelona July 23, 2010. European Union bank stress tests due from regulators on Friday aim to bolster confidence in the sector by making clear which lenders are healthy and which need to raise capital. Tests on 91 financial institutions from 20 of the EU's 27 nations simulate worsened economic conditions including declines in the value of sovereign debt they hold. REUTERS/Albert Gea (SPAIN - Tags: BUSINESS IMAGES OF THE DAY)

In the past few weeks I have been getting a lot of questions about serial sovereign defaults and how to predict which countries will or won’t suspend debt payments or otherwise get into trouble.  The most common question is whether or not there is a threshold of debt (measured, say, against total GDP) above which we need to start worrying.

Perhaps because I started my career in 1987 trading defaulted and restructured bank loans during the LDC Crisis, I have spent the last 30 years as a finance history junky, obsessively reading everything I can about the history of financial markets, banking and sovereign debt crises, and international capital flows. My book, The Volatility Machine, published in 2002, examines the past 200 years of international financial crises in order to derive a theory of debt crisis using the work of Hyman Minsky and Charles Kindleberger.

No aspect of history seems to repeat itself quite as regularly as financial history.  The written history of financial crises dates back at least as far back as the reign of Tiberius, when we have very good accounts of Rome’s 33 AD real estate crisis.  No one reading about that particular crisis will find any of it strange or unfamiliar – least of all the 100-million-sesterces interest-free loan the emperor had to provide (without even having read Bagehot) in order to end the panic.

So although I am not smart enough to tell you who will or won’t default (I have my suspicions however), based on my historical reading and experiences, I think there are two statements that I can make with confidence.  First, we have only begun the period of sovereign default.

The major global adjustments haven’t yet taken place and until they do, we won’t have seen the full consequences of the global crisis, although already Monday’s New York Times had an article in which some commentators all but declared the European crisis yesterday’s news.

Just two months ago, Europe’s sovereign debt problems seemed grave enough to imperil the global economic recovery. Now, at least some investors are treating it as the crisis that wasn’t.

The article goes on to quote Jean-Claude Trichet sniffing over the “tendency among some investors and market participants to underestimate Europe’s ability to take bold decisions.”  Of course I’d be more impressed with…
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A Frightening Build-Up

A Frightening Build-Up

Courtesy of Michael Panzner at Financial Armageddon 

Although there are many reasons why it was not a good idea to keep dead and dying businesses alive, to spend and borrow hundreds of billions of dollars for ill-conceived stimulus programs and other boondoggles, to keep interest rates at record lows for an extended period of time, and to encourage people to hang on in hope that a recovery was just around the corner, the biggest issue with not facing the music early on is how daunting the problems have now become. As the New York Times notes in "Crisis Awaits World’s Banks as Trillions Come Due," the scale of short-term obligations that have built-up as a result of the decision to extend and pretend — or delay and pray — is frightening, to say the least.

FRANKFURT— The sovereign debt crisis would seem to create worry enough for European banks, but there is another gathering threat that has not garnered as much notice: the trillions of dollars in short-term borrowing that institutions around the world must repay or roll over in the next two years.

The European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the International Monetary Fund have all recently warned of a looming crunch, especially in Europe, where banks have enough trouble raising money as it is.

Their concern is that banks hungry for refinancing will compete with governments — which also must roll over huge sums — for the bond market’s favor. As a result, credit for business and consumers could become more costly and scarce, with unpleasant consequences for economic growth.

“There is a cliff we are racing toward — it’s huge,” said Richard Barwell, an economist at Royal Bank of Scotland and formerly a senior economist at the Bank of England, Britain’s central bank. “No one seems to be talking about it that much.” But, he added, “it’s of first-order importance for lending and output.”

Banks worldwide owe nearly $5 trillion to bondholders and other creditors that will come due through 2012, according to estimates by the Bank for International Settlements. About $2.6 trillion of the liabilities are in Europe.

U.S. banks must refinance about $1.3 trillion through 2012. While that sum is nothing to scoff at, analysts seem most concerned about Europe because the banking system there is already weighed down by the sovereign debt crisis.

How banks will come up


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Phil's Favorites

Super-App

 

Super-App

Courtesy of Scott Galloway, No Mercy/No Malice, @profgalloway

Finally.

Two years ago I wrote a letter to the chairman of Twitter calling for Jack Dorsey to be replaced as CEO. Or, more to the point, for the board to appoint a full-time CEO. An executive who spends 90% of his time running another company and plans to spend half the year on a ...



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Zero Hedge

FDA Expedites Review Process For Omicron Vaccines And Drugs

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

It's been one week since the omicron variant first rattled markets and prompted the Federal Reserve's latest rethink of its plans for rolling back its monetary stimulus. And in that time, vaccine-makers have talked their book by sharing plans to produce new omicron-targeted vaccines, while others claim that there are no data suggesting the Pfizer-BioNTech jab is less effective against omicron.

Assuming the world still does care about omicron three months from now (the first cases of the variant have only just been confirmed in the US in recent days), the FDA and its advisors are reportedly working on an expedited approval pro...



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Chart School

Gold and Silver stock cycle bottom near

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

There are some regular cycles at play with the Gold and Silver stock leaders.

The metal stocks cycles in Australia lead the rest of world metal stocks. This is because you can make gains on the stock prices as well as the currency price (AUDUSD), this is the worlds first go to gold stock.

The US FED has just announced inflation is not transitory but is structural. This opens the door for inflation hedging strategies, and gold and silver stocks will be part of this play.

Chart 1 - This shows ASX Newcrest Mining near cycle lows, this is important as Wyckoff logic investors will be watching for 'whale' buying and accumulation swings up and down. Yes we may see a few more weeks of price moving along range bound lows but the cycle does ...

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Biotech/COVID-19

Omicron and market sell-off: don't be surprised if there's more turbulence to come

 

Omicron and market sell-off: don’t be surprised if there’s more turbulence to come

shutterstock.

Courtesy of Arturo Bris, International Institute for Management Development (IMD)

Until the Omicron variant hit the headlines, the signs were that 2021 was going to close with a stellar stock-market performance. Most markets have been on the rise since the beginning of the year, with the S&P500 up about 25% and the FTSE All Share index up by about 10%.

There had ...



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Politics

The first Thanksgiving is a key chapter in America's origin story - but what happened in Virginia four months later mattered much more

 

The first Thanksgiving is a key chapter in America’s origin story – but what happened in Virginia four months later mattered much more

In the 19th century, there was a campaign to link the Thanksgiving holiday to the Pilgrims. Bettman/Getty Images

Courtesy of Peter C. Mancall, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences

This year marks the 400th anniversary of the first Thanksgiving in New England. Remembered and retold as an allegory for perseverance and cooper...



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Digital Currencies

Stablecoins: these cryptocurrencies threaten the financial system, but no one is getting to grips with them

 

Stablecoins: these cryptocurrencies threaten the financial system, but no one is getting to grips with them

Safe as houses? iQoncept

Courtesy of Jean-Philippe Serbera, Sheffield Hallam University

Cryptocurrencies have had an exceptional year, reaching a combined value of more than US$3 trillion (£2.2 trillion) for the first time in November. The market seems to have benefited from the public having tim...



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Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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