Posts Tagged ‘GYMB’

Bullish Player Acts on Gymboree Corp. Speculation with Ratio Call Spread

 Today’s tickers: GYMB, EQIX, JPM, SLV, STI, MBI, EEM, SNP & GDX

GYMB - Gymboree Corp. – One options player populating the retailer of children’s clothing and accessories waited until the twilight of the final trading day of the week to initiate a bullish stance on the stock. Gymboree’s shares surged as much as 21.425% at the start of the session to touch an intraday high of $50.44 on speculation the firm may put itself up for sale. The rumors drove implied volatility on Gymboree up 20.10% to 48.52% this morning along with the price of the underlying shares and spurred demand for options. Shares as well as volatility cooled somewhat by late afternoon, with shares up 16.5% at $48.40 and volatility higher by 13.5% to 45.85%, as of 3:00 pm ET. The patient bullish player looked to the February 2011 contract to establish a ratio call spread, purchasing 1,050 calls at the Feb. 2011 $48 strike at a premium of $4.80 each, and selling 2,100 calls at the higher Feb. 2011 $55 strike for a premium of $1.85 a-pop. Net premium paid to initiate the spread reduces down to $1.10 per contract. Thus, the trader is poised to profit should GYMB’s shares rally 1.45% over the current price of $48.40 to surpass the effective breakeven price of $49.10 by February expiration day. Maximum potential profits of $5.90 per contract are available to the ratio-spreader if the retailer’s shares surge 13.6% to settle at $55.00 at expiration. The greater proportion of sold calls expose the trader to losses should Gymboree’s shares explode higher to exceed the effective upper breakeven price of $60.90 ahead of expiration day in February. Analysts at Susquehanna raised their share price target on the stock to $60.00 from $48.00 after the Wall Street Journal’s website said bankers were looking into the possibility that Gymboree could be sold to private equity.

EQIX - Equinix, Inc. – The provider of global data center services appeared on our ‘hot by options volume’ market scanner in…
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Just Another Manic Monday – Retail Edition

[Growth and Deflation chart]Good morning! 

Japan had a huge GDP beat (+1.2% for the Q, 4.8% annualized)) and they leaked it early (to oil executives!) but, strangely, deflation is accelerating at the same time.  That’s great news for stimulus watchers as the government can continue to pump money into the economy, even while it’s growing and, of course, the carry trade can continue.

Despite the robust third-quarter report, Japanese officials said they were still concerned about the economy’s strength going forward, and didn’t intend to pull back plans for further spending to ensure continued growth.

"There is no change in the severe condition of the country’s economy," Naoto Kan, the deputy prime minister, told reporters after the report’s release. "We are concerned about whether the economy falls into a deflationary situation," he added.

The domestic demand deflator — a measure of changes in prices of goods and services, excluding exports and imports — plunged 2.6%, the fastest pace since 1958. It was the third straight quarter of falling prices.

Another sign of concern in the report: The contribution of private consumer spending to growth slipped in the third quarter, suggesting measures to convert Japan from export-led growth to domestic-demand-led growth were facing limits. In the third quarter, private consumer spending, rose 0.7%, compared with a revised 1% climb in the second quarter.

It’s all stimulus but there’s no sign stimulus is stopping so party on markets.  Japan also got a huge benefit from the Chinese auto sales – more stimulus!  The Nikkei itself isn’t thrilled and is up just 0.25%, barely hitting Friday’s high on a stick-save into the close but that didn't stopping the futures from jumping up more than half a point and gold from hitting $1,130.  I sent out an Alert to Members at 2:24 this morning saying:

"Once the Nikkei closes (2am EST) the Hang Seng will have an hour to themselves and that should top out our futures (the Hang Seng is up at 22,900 (+1.5%).  The shorting move on gold futures is to short them as they cross below $1,130 with zero tolerance for holding gold above that line.  The same can be done with the S&P futures at 1,100, the Dow at 10,316 and the Nas at 1,800 and you can even use the 2 out of 4 rule to
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Thoughtful Thursday Morning

Maybe I am being too bearish on the economy.

Maybe there is a shining city on the hill with 1,000 points of light and if I simply close my eyes and believe in it, I will be transported there and everything will be wonderful and China will expand and Europe will expand and the US markets will rise and rise as the 18M unemployed people line up in the streets to cheer us as we all drive past them in our new cars as we head over to the gas station to pay $4 for gas, honking joyfully as we pass by each empty storefront and each abandoned home

It was good to take quick bearish profits, as I warned in yesterday's post because quick profits are all the bears get these days as it was indeed a "Whipsaw Wednesday," and Buffett's warning went in one ear and out the other of investors so quickly that clearly there was no gray matter slowing it down along the way!  I was very proud of our short plays on COF, HPQ, RTP, SRS, RTH and our DUG long but all had a half-life on their success so short you could have run an atomic clock with it.  Fortunately, we had our bounce levels to guide us and our 3 of 5 rule to get out of bearish positions so the damage was more to our pride than our virtual portfolios.

Although I could see the turn in my 9:45 Alert to Members, I didn't have the heart to make any bullish calls as it just seemed like such nonsense.  By 10:12 we were even more concerned that something was up and I said: "Don’t get too excited bears.  As I said in the post, profits need to come quickly off the table – this is not a market for riding 20% profits too far."  Sadly, I then proceeded to make a short play on OIH at 10:26 that stopped out at 10:34 and an incredibly poorly timed idea to get the DIA $93 puts at 11:22, just minutes before the market went flying and stopped that one out too as we flew through our bounce zone of Dow 9,200, S&P 986, Nas 1,946, NYSE 6,400 and RUT 555.   Now that they've held up so well, those levels now become our watch levels to the downside and it makes…
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