Posts Tagged ‘Henry Blodget’

Don’t Worry: Prosperity Is Just Around The Corner

Don’t Worry: Prosperity Is Just Around The Corner

Courtesy of Henry Blodget at Clusterstock/Business Insider

Flat World Earth - tbiAnyone who has followed perpetually troubled companies has no doubt experienced one of their favorite (and surprisingly effective) tricks:

Continually publish rosy forecasts of future recovery that sound great at the time but never actually materialize.  As the happy forecasts fail to materialize, revise them, pushing the recovery to the next year.  And so on.

This trick, of course, is not only a favorite of companies.  Wall Street analysts and governments love it, too.

In the early years of the Great Depression, for example, Herbert Hoover was fond of saying that prosperity was just around the corner.

And it was.  As long as you measured in decades.

Today, President Obama is selling his new budget.  It includes a horrifying deficit for this year, but then a smaller deficit in all the following years.  Prosperity, in other words, is just around the corner.

Democratic Deficits

But it was just around the corner last year, too.  Check out this chart from the WSJ that shows what President Obama’s soothsayers foresaw for future deficits at this time last year:

Budget Deficit 2009

Last year at this time, 2009 was going to be the worst year, followed by a happy reduction in the deficit in 2010 and 2011 and so on.

This year, 2010 is going to be the worst year, followed by a happy reduction in the deficit in 2011 and 2012.  And so on.

And next year?

Never mind.  Just rest assured: Prosperity is just around the corner. 

See Also:

So, How Do You Think This Movie Will End?

We Are So Screwed

Goldman: After Six Months, We Can Safely Say This Is No V-Shaped Recovery

 


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Felix Salmon: Henry Blodget Should Be Banned From The Industry

Felix Salmon: Henry Blodget Should Be Banned From The Industry

henryblodget5.jpgCourtesy of Henry Blodget at Clusterstock

The king of financial bloggers, Felix Salmon, is annoyed by me.

Specifically, if I read him correctly, Felix is annoyed that:

1) I have a job that in a just world would belong to a normal out-of-work journalist who hasn’t been at the center of a huge financial scandal, and

2) I have not explained every last detail of my scandalous background in my Business Insider bio, which states merely that, at the end of my Wall Street career, I was "keelhauled by then-Attorney General Eliot Spitzer over conflicts of interest between research and banking."

Well, it is no fun to annoy the king of financial bloggers, so let me address these points, starting with the second one.

In the 7 years since I settled the widely publicized civil securities-fraud complaint brought against me by Eliot Spitzer and the SEC, I have contributed commentary to more than a dozen news organizations, including Slate, Fortune, NPR, MSNBC, CNN, FT, the BBC, The Atlantic, Forbes, The New York Times, Bloomberg, EuroMoney, Yahoo (I’m a host of their finance show, TechTicker), and CNBC.  When appropriate, I have gone to great lengths to detail every last bit of what had happened, so the readers, viewers, and listeners of these organizations would know exactly who they were dealing with (cue scary music).

felix salmonIn the early years, I also launched my own blog, Internet Outsider, in which I addressed what had happened in as much detail as I was able to.  (Thanks to various legal agreements, I have never been able to discuss the allegations publicly.  Eventually, when there’s not a soul left on earth who gives a damn, I’ll be able to tell my side of the story.  My grandchildren will love it!) 

Two years ago, when we launched Business Insider, I again frequently discussed what had happened to me, lest there were any readers who had not already gotten sick of my story.  This effort was made easier by the help of the folks who posted Eliot Spitzer’s press release in the comments whenever I said something they disagreed with.  Whenever possible, I responded to readers’ questions about


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Henry Blodget vs. Ken Fisher “We Need More Debt”

Is Ken Fisher talking his book, or as Henry Blodget believes, simply nuts? – Ilene

Henry Blodget vs. Ken Fisher "We Need More Debt"

Courtesy of Mish

Numerous people sent me a link to a preposterous statement by fund manager Ken Fisher regarding debt. Please consider Too Much Debt? Please. We Need MORE Debt, Says Ken Fisher.

The conventional wisdom is that Americans are struggling to crawl out from under a mountain of debt that will restrain growth and weigh down the economy for decades.

As [the following] chart shows, the US debt-to-GDP ratio recently soared to an all time high of 370%, meaning that for every $1 of output we produce, we have borrowed $3.70. This compares to a long-term debt-to-GDP average of about 150%.

click on chart for sharper image

Last time we went on a massive debt binge, in the 1920s, our debt-to-GDP ratio hit a relatively mild 250%, and we spent the better part of two decades (and the Great Depression) working it off. Many economists think the same thing will happen this time around.

But they’re wrong, says Ken Fisher, CEO of Fisher Investments ($35 billion under management), in a wildly contrarian view.

The U.S. has too little debt, not too much, Fisher says. The U.S.’s return on assets is high and interest rates are low, so our borrowing capacity is much higher than our current debt levels.

Also, Fisher says, you have to look at the U.S. in the context of the world, because the U.S. is only 25% of world GDP. The world is way under-leveraged, so one country’s particular debt-to-GDP ratio doesn’t matter.

Inquiring minds will want to play the accompanying video 

The idea that we need more debt is ludicrous. Consumers cannot service the levels of debt they have right now. This has increased defaults, foreclosures, bankruptcies, credit card writeoffs, and horrendous commercial real estate problems.

In the Business Insider Money Game Henry Blodget came to the conclusion, Ken Fisher is nuts.
 

We had Ken Fisher on TechTicker yesterday. Ken has managed money for nearly 40 years, and now has $35 billion of assets under management.

You make the big money on Wall Street when you hold a view that is so contrarian that most people think you are nuts. So Ken’s argument certainly merits consideration.


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The Blodget-Spitzer Interview

The Blodget-Spitzer Interview

Courtesy of Henry Blodget at Clusterstock

Eliot Spitzer was kind enough to sit down with me on TechTicker last week.  This was the second time I had ever met him--the first being not when he was pulverizing me as Attorney General, but later, when I was writing for Slate Magazine and he was running for Governor.  It was the first time I’d ever talked to him about any of this stuff.

It was a very interesting half-hour to say the least.  We’ll post a couple of clips here…

As many of you know, my career as a top-ranked Wall Street research analyst ended in 2002, when a then-little-known New York Attorney General named Eliot Spitzer accused me and my firm (Merrill Lynch) of producing bogus research to curry favor with banking clients.

Merrill denied and then settled the charges, but Spitzer’s allegations resonated with furious investors who had lost their shirts in the market crash.  Spitzer soon expanded his research investigation to other firms, eventually forcing the industry into a "Global Settlement" that changed the longstanding relationship between bankers and research analysts.  I, meanwhile, got tossed out of the securities industry.

For Spitzer, the research investigation was the first of many.  Over the next few years, as the newly crowned ‘Sheriff of Wall Street’, he launched similarly aggressive investigations into mutual funds, insurance, and other industries, often exposing shady practices that had come to be regarded as business as usual.

By 2003, when I was taking the first steps toward rebuilding my shattered reputation--writing commentary for Slate, The Atlantic, and other publications--Eliot Spitzer’s fame and success had soared.  In 2004, he was re-elected as Attorney General.  In 2006, he was elected Governor of New York in a landslide.  By 2007, he was frequently mentioned as a possible future presidential candidate.

Meanwhile, by the spring of last year, thanks to the generous second chance many people had given me, I was beginning to rebuild some credibility.  TechTicker was doing well, The Business Insider was growing rapidly, and Valleywag had even taken to referring to me as "the disgraced analyst everyone listens to."

Then, one day, I got a note from a New York Times reporter saying I should check out the lead story about Eliot Spitzer that had just hit their front page.  I checked it out--and my


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Phil's Favorites

Is This As Good As It Gets For the Stock Market?

 

Is This As Good As It Gets For the Stock Market?

Courtesy of 

Josh and I spoke recently  about the slow grind higher, the lack of volatility, and all the recent stock market records. The very first response in the comment section was, “market overdue for a pullback.”

This seems to be the prevailing narrative and I gotta be honest, I agree. I’m just as surprised as anyone that the market keeps grinding higher.

Here are a few data points, by way of the S&am...



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Zero Hedge

Neel Kashkari Appeals To "QE Conspiracists": Show Me How The Fed Is Moving Stock Prices... So Here It Is

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Things are starting to get surprisingly heated at the Fed, now that not only Wall Street strategists, and traders but also Fed presidents are starting to tell the truth about how the Fed's "NOT QE", which sorry but we will call it by its real name QE 4, is pus...



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The Technical Traders

Energy Continues Basing Setup - Breakout Expected Near January 24th

Courtesy of Technical Traders

After watching Crude Oil fall from the $65
ppb level to the $58 ppb level (-10.7%) over the past few weeks, we still
believe the energy sector is setting up for another great trade for skilled
investors/traders.

We are all keenly aware that Winter is still
here and that heating oil demands may continue to push certain energy prices
higher.  Yet Winter is also a time when
people don’t travel as much and, overall, energy prices tend to weaken
throughout Winter.

Over the past 37 years, the historical monthly breakdown for Crude Oil is as follows:

December: Generally l...



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Insider Scoop

10 Biggest Price Target Changes For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Citigroup lifted Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) price target from $145 to $170. Caterpillar closed at $147.87 on Thursday.
  • UBS cut Twitter Inc (NYSE: TWTR) price target from $37 to $35. Twitter shares closed at $34.19 on Thursday.
  • Morgan Stanley boosted the price target for Yum! Brands, Inc. (NYSE: YUM) from $113 to $118. Yum! Brands closed at $102.16 on Thursday.
  • Jefferies lifted the price target on Ventas, Inc. (NYSE: ...


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Kimble Charting Solutions

Tesla About To Run Out Of Energy Here? Short-Term Peak Possible?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Tesla (TSLA) has been screaming higher of late, as very impressive gains have taken place.

Is Tesla about to run out of energy/take a break/experience some selling pressure? A unique price setup is in play, that bulls might want want to be aware of.

This chart applies Fibonacci to the 2016 lows and 2017 highs at each (1). The impressive rally of late has it testing its 161% extension level, based upon those price points.

At the same time, it is hitting its 161% extension level, it finds itself at the top of a 7-year rising channel, with momentum hitting the highest ...



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Chart School

Gold Gann Angle Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

The new year of 2020 has gold is poised to break out higher. Why is gold going higher? Maybe the FED's economists can explain .... or not.

Maybe these could be on the list:

- FED repo hundreds of billions a day.
- ECB made up tools to keep the European banks solvent.
- A sugar high stock market with Apple Inc and Microsoft looking like Bitcoin 2017.
- The US bond market is NOT confirming a strong stock market.
- Corporate profits have flat lined for 3 years while stocks soared each year.
- Knowing an US election year needs stimulus, and a lower US dollar is a first choice.
- China deal, will have a currency element to make it easier to do business. Lower US dollar.



Gold Gann Angle ...

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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Digital Currencies

Cryptos Have Surged Since Soleimani Death, Bitcoin Tops $8,000

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Bitcoin is up over 15% since the assassination of Iran General Soleimani...

Source: Bloomberg

...topping $8,000 for the first time since before Thanksgiving...

Source: Bloomberg

Testing its key 100-day moving-average for the first time since October...

...



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Members' Corner

Tobin Smith: Foxocracy, the 2020 Election, and the Stock Market

 

For decades, Fox News has been spreading false information and hooking its audience into an angry, xenophobic and paranoid worldview. It's no mystery that Fox was instrumental in the 2016 election -- but how did it do it? How did it gain so much influence? Tobin Smith, CEO of Transformity Research, Inc. and former Fox News contributor and talk show host, explores this phenomenon and discusses Fox News’ emotionally predatory and partisan propaganda media strategies and tactics in his new book, ...



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Biotech

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

A vial of insulin. Prices for the drug, crucial for those with diabetes, have soared in recent years. Oleksandr Nagaiets/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Vanderbilt University

About 7.4 million people ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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