Posts Tagged ‘Henry Blodget’

Don’t Worry: Prosperity Is Just Around The Corner

Don’t Worry: Prosperity Is Just Around The Corner

Courtesy of Henry Blodget at Clusterstock/Business Insider

Flat World Earth - tbiAnyone who has followed perpetually troubled companies has no doubt experienced one of their favorite (and surprisingly effective) tricks:

Continually publish rosy forecasts of future recovery that sound great at the time but never actually materialize.  As the happy forecasts fail to materialize, revise them, pushing the recovery to the next year.  And so on.

This trick, of course, is not only a favorite of companies.  Wall Street analysts and governments love it, too.

In the early years of the Great Depression, for example, Herbert Hoover was fond of saying that prosperity was just around the corner.

And it was.  As long as you measured in decades.

Today, President Obama is selling his new budget.  It includes a horrifying deficit for this year, but then a smaller deficit in all the following years.  Prosperity, in other words, is just around the corner.

Democratic Deficits

But it was just around the corner last year, too.  Check out this chart from the WSJ that shows what President Obama’s soothsayers foresaw for future deficits at this time last year:

Budget Deficit 2009

Last year at this time, 2009 was going to be the worst year, followed by a happy reduction in the deficit in 2010 and 2011 and so on.

This year, 2010 is going to be the worst year, followed by a happy reduction in the deficit in 2011 and 2012.  And so on.

And next year?

Never mind.  Just rest assured: Prosperity is just around the corner. 

See Also:

So, How Do You Think This Movie Will End?

We Are So Screwed

Goldman: After Six Months, We Can Safely Say This Is No V-Shaped Recovery

 


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Felix Salmon: Henry Blodget Should Be Banned From The Industry

Felix Salmon: Henry Blodget Should Be Banned From The Industry

henryblodget5.jpgCourtesy of Henry Blodget at Clusterstock

The king of financial bloggers, Felix Salmon, is annoyed by me.

Specifically, if I read him correctly, Felix is annoyed that:

1) I have a job that in a just world would belong to a normal out-of-work journalist who hasn’t been at the center of a huge financial scandal, and

2) I have not explained every last detail of my scandalous background in my Business Insider bio, which states merely that, at the end of my Wall Street career, I was "keelhauled by then-Attorney General Eliot Spitzer over conflicts of interest between research and banking."

Well, it is no fun to annoy the king of financial bloggers, so let me address these points, starting with the second one.

In the 7 years since I settled the widely publicized civil securities-fraud complaint brought against me by Eliot Spitzer and the SEC, I have contributed commentary to more than a dozen news organizations, including Slate, Fortune, NPR, MSNBC, CNN, FT, the BBC, The Atlantic, Forbes, The New York Times, Bloomberg, EuroMoney, Yahoo (I’m a host of their finance show, TechTicker), and CNBC.  When appropriate, I have gone to great lengths to detail every last bit of what had happened, so the readers, viewers, and listeners of these organizations would know exactly who they were dealing with (cue scary music).

felix salmonIn the early years, I also launched my own blog, Internet Outsider, in which I addressed what had happened in as much detail as I was able to.  (Thanks to various legal agreements, I have never been able to discuss the allegations publicly.  Eventually, when there’s not a soul left on earth who gives a damn, I’ll be able to tell my side of the story.  My grandchildren will love it!) 

Two years ago, when we launched Business Insider, I again frequently discussed what had happened to me, lest there were any readers who had not already gotten sick of my story.  This effort was made easier by the help of the folks who posted Eliot Spitzer’s press release in the comments whenever I said something they disagreed with.  Whenever possible, I responded to readers’ questions about


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Henry Blodget vs. Ken Fisher “We Need More Debt”

Is Ken Fisher talking his book, or as Henry Blodget believes, simply nuts? – Ilene

Henry Blodget vs. Ken Fisher "We Need More Debt"

Courtesy of Mish

Numerous people sent me a link to a preposterous statement by fund manager Ken Fisher regarding debt. Please consider Too Much Debt? Please. We Need MORE Debt, Says Ken Fisher.

The conventional wisdom is that Americans are struggling to crawl out from under a mountain of debt that will restrain growth and weigh down the economy for decades.

As [the following] chart shows, the US debt-to-GDP ratio recently soared to an all time high of 370%, meaning that for every $1 of output we produce, we have borrowed $3.70. This compares to a long-term debt-to-GDP average of about 150%.

click on chart for sharper image

Last time we went on a massive debt binge, in the 1920s, our debt-to-GDP ratio hit a relatively mild 250%, and we spent the better part of two decades (and the Great Depression) working it off. Many economists think the same thing will happen this time around.

But they’re wrong, says Ken Fisher, CEO of Fisher Investments ($35 billion under management), in a wildly contrarian view.

The U.S. has too little debt, not too much, Fisher says. The U.S.’s return on assets is high and interest rates are low, so our borrowing capacity is much higher than our current debt levels.

Also, Fisher says, you have to look at the U.S. in the context of the world, because the U.S. is only 25% of world GDP. The world is way under-leveraged, so one country’s particular debt-to-GDP ratio doesn’t matter.

Inquiring minds will want to play the accompanying video 

The idea that we need more debt is ludicrous. Consumers cannot service the levels of debt they have right now. This has increased defaults, foreclosures, bankruptcies, credit card writeoffs, and horrendous commercial real estate problems.

In the Business Insider Money Game Henry Blodget came to the conclusion, Ken Fisher is nuts.
 

We had Ken Fisher on TechTicker yesterday. Ken has managed money for nearly 40 years, and now has $35 billion of assets under management.

You make the big money on Wall Street when you hold a view that is so contrarian that most people think you are nuts. So Ken’s argument certainly merits consideration.


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The Blodget-Spitzer Interview

The Blodget-Spitzer Interview

Courtesy of Henry Blodget at Clusterstock

Eliot Spitzer was kind enough to sit down with me on TechTicker last week.  This was the second time I had ever met him--the first being not when he was pulverizing me as Attorney General, but later, when I was writing for Slate Magazine and he was running for Governor.  It was the first time I’d ever talked to him about any of this stuff.

It was a very interesting half-hour to say the least.  We’ll post a couple of clips here…

As many of you know, my career as a top-ranked Wall Street research analyst ended in 2002, when a then-little-known New York Attorney General named Eliot Spitzer accused me and my firm (Merrill Lynch) of producing bogus research to curry favor with banking clients.

Merrill denied and then settled the charges, but Spitzer’s allegations resonated with furious investors who had lost their shirts in the market crash.  Spitzer soon expanded his research investigation to other firms, eventually forcing the industry into a "Global Settlement" that changed the longstanding relationship between bankers and research analysts.  I, meanwhile, got tossed out of the securities industry.

For Spitzer, the research investigation was the first of many.  Over the next few years, as the newly crowned ‘Sheriff of Wall Street’, he launched similarly aggressive investigations into mutual funds, insurance, and other industries, often exposing shady practices that had come to be regarded as business as usual.

By 2003, when I was taking the first steps toward rebuilding my shattered reputation--writing commentary for Slate, The Atlantic, and other publications--Eliot Spitzer’s fame and success had soared.  In 2004, he was re-elected as Attorney General.  In 2006, he was elected Governor of New York in a landslide.  By 2007, he was frequently mentioned as a possible future presidential candidate.

Meanwhile, by the spring of last year, thanks to the generous second chance many people had given me, I was beginning to rebuild some credibility.  TechTicker was doing well, The Business Insider was growing rapidly, and Valleywag had even taken to referring to me as "the disgraced analyst everyone listens to."

Then, one day, I got a note from a New York Times reporter saying I should check out the lead story about Eliot Spitzer that had just hit their front page.  I checked it out--and my


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Phil's Favorites

Momentum Monday...Still So Much Pessimisim Amidst The Speculation

 

Momentum Monday…Still So Much Pessimisim Amidst The Speculation

Courtesy of Howard Lindzon

Happy Monday everyone.

As always, Ivanhoff and I spent 20 minutes pouring over the markets looking at the areas of Momentum. Have a watch/listen here. I have embedded it below :

I am starting to think there are two macros…one for the old physical world (thousands of textbooks and hundreds of years of history) and one for the digital world which is anyone’s guess with so little history.

Obviously fear and greed will still drive bo...



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Zero Hedge

Greenwich Single-Family Listings Fall Most On Record As Buying Frenzy Continues 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

New York City millionaires quickly realize their hometown has transformed into a socio-economic disaster that could rival the 1970s in terms of crime, unemployment, and taxes. Many have made a beeline for neighboring Greenwich. 

After years of stagnant demand growth for its multi-million dollar mansions due to the secular decline of "active" asset management, the hedge fund capital of the world is having a real estate renaissance in the town located in southwestern Fairfield County, Connecticut. And it only took a virus pandemic.&...



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Digital Currencies

A Unifying Theory of Everything

 

A Unifying Theory of Everything

Courtesy of Scott Galloway, No Mercy/No Malice@profgalloway

This week, New York Magazine let me go full stream of consciousness on … everything. Their editor pitched me the idea to articulate a unifying theory on “this whole crazy techno-fiscal moment.” Problem is, while I understand crypto better than 99 percent of people, I do not understand crypto.

On Wednesday, crypto pioneer Coinbase listed shares on the NASDAQ, and closed the day at an almost $100 billion valuation, making it nearly as valuable as Goldman Sachs. Coinbase’s big day made a bunch of wealthy people wealthier, but it also poked several bears — ...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Scientists are on a path to sequencing 1 million human genomes and use big data to unlock genetic secrets

 

Scientists are on a path to sequencing 1 million human genomes and use big data to unlock genetic secrets

A complete human genome, seen here in pairs of chromosomes, offers a wealth of information, but it is hard connect genetics to traits or disease. HYanWong/Wikimedia Comons

Courtesy of Xavier Bofill De Ros, National Institutes of Health

The first draft of the human genome was publ...



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Chart School

Money Printing Asset Price Targets

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

The FED giveth and the FED taketh away. Right now the FED is giving a lot into 2022 US Mid Terms. 

Unless the FED breaks the market, here are some BRRRRR asset price targets, not normal price targets but money printing adjusted price targets. 


BITCOIN 175,000 to 500,000 USD

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DOW to 40,000 to 50,000

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More DOW

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Politics

Colombia gives nearly 1 million Venezuelan migrants legal status and right to work

 

Colombia gives nearly 1 million Venezuelan migrants legal status and right to work

Venezuelans wait at the Colombian border to be processed and housed in tents in 2020. All Venezuelans now in Colombia will receive a 10-year residency permit. Schneyder Mendoza/AFP via Getty Images

Courtesy of Erika Frydenlund, Old Dominion University; Jose J. Padilla, Old Dominion University...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Will Historic Selloff In Treasury Bonds Turn Into Opportunity?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Long-dated treasury bonds have been crushed over the past year, sending ETFs like TLT (20+ Year US Treasury Bond ETF) spiraling over 20%.

Improving economy? Inflation concerns? Perhaps a combination of both… interest rates have risen sharply and thus bond prices have fallen in historic fashion.

Today’s chart looks at $TLT over the past 20 years. As you can see, the recent decline has truly been historic. $TLT’s price has swung from historically overbought highs to oversold lows.

At present, the long-dated bond ETF ($TLT) is trading 7.8% below its 200-...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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Promotions

Phil's Stock World's Weekly Webinar - March 10, 2021

Don't miss our latest weekly webinar! 

Join us at PSW for LIVE Webinars every Wednesday afternoon at 1:00 PM EST.

Phil's Stock World's Weekly Webinar – March 10, 2021

 

Major Topics:

00:00:01 - EIA Petroleum Status Report
00:04:42 - Crude Oil WTI
00:12:52 - COVID-19 Update
00:22:08 - Bonds and Borrowed Funds | S&P 500
00:45:28 - COVID-19 Vaccination
00:48:32 - Trading Techniques
00:50:34 - PBR
00:50:43 - LYG
00:50:48 - More Trading Techniques
00:52:59 - Chinese Hacks Microsoft's E...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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