Posts Tagged ‘Henry Blodget’

Don’t Worry: Prosperity Is Just Around The Corner

Don’t Worry: Prosperity Is Just Around The Corner

Courtesy of Henry Blodget at Clusterstock/Business Insider

Flat World Earth - tbiAnyone who has followed perpetually troubled companies has no doubt experienced one of their favorite (and surprisingly effective) tricks:

Continually publish rosy forecasts of future recovery that sound great at the time but never actually materialize.  As the happy forecasts fail to materialize, revise them, pushing the recovery to the next year.  And so on.

This trick, of course, is not only a favorite of companies.  Wall Street analysts and governments love it, too.

In the early years of the Great Depression, for example, Herbert Hoover was fond of saying that prosperity was just around the corner.

And it was.  As long as you measured in decades.

Today, President Obama is selling his new budget.  It includes a horrifying deficit for this year, but then a smaller deficit in all the following years.  Prosperity, in other words, is just around the corner.

Democratic Deficits

But it was just around the corner last year, too.  Check out this chart from the WSJ that shows what President Obama’s soothsayers foresaw for future deficits at this time last year:

Budget Deficit 2009

Last year at this time, 2009 was going to be the worst year, followed by a happy reduction in the deficit in 2010 and 2011 and so on.

This year, 2010 is going to be the worst year, followed by a happy reduction in the deficit in 2011 and 2012.  And so on.

And next year?

Never mind.  Just rest assured: Prosperity is just around the corner. 

See Also:

So, How Do You Think This Movie Will End?

We Are So Screwed

Goldman: After Six Months, We Can Safely Say This Is No V-Shaped Recovery

 


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Felix Salmon: Henry Blodget Should Be Banned From The Industry

Felix Salmon: Henry Blodget Should Be Banned From The Industry

henryblodget5.jpgCourtesy of Henry Blodget at Clusterstock

The king of financial bloggers, Felix Salmon, is annoyed by me.

Specifically, if I read him correctly, Felix is annoyed that:

1) I have a job that in a just world would belong to a normal out-of-work journalist who hasn’t been at the center of a huge financial scandal, and

2) I have not explained every last detail of my scandalous background in my Business Insider bio, which states merely that, at the end of my Wall Street career, I was "keelhauled by then-Attorney General Eliot Spitzer over conflicts of interest between research and banking."

Well, it is no fun to annoy the king of financial bloggers, so let me address these points, starting with the second one.

In the 7 years since I settled the widely publicized civil securities-fraud complaint brought against me by Eliot Spitzer and the SEC, I have contributed commentary to more than a dozen news organizations, including Slate, Fortune, NPR, MSNBC, CNN, FT, the BBC, The Atlantic, Forbes, The New York Times, Bloomberg, EuroMoney, Yahoo (I’m a host of their finance show, TechTicker), and CNBC.  When appropriate, I have gone to great lengths to detail every last bit of what had happened, so the readers, viewers, and listeners of these organizations would know exactly who they were dealing with (cue scary music).

felix salmonIn the early years, I also launched my own blog, Internet Outsider, in which I addressed what had happened in as much detail as I was able to.  (Thanks to various legal agreements, I have never been able to discuss the allegations publicly.  Eventually, when there’s not a soul left on earth who gives a damn, I’ll be able to tell my side of the story.  My grandchildren will love it!) 

Two years ago, when we launched Business Insider, I again frequently discussed what had happened to me, lest there were any readers who had not already gotten sick of my story.  This effort was made easier by the help of the folks who posted Eliot Spitzer’s press release in the comments whenever I said something they disagreed with.  Whenever possible, I responded to readers’ questions about


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Henry Blodget vs. Ken Fisher “We Need More Debt”

Is Ken Fisher talking his book, or as Henry Blodget believes, simply nuts? – Ilene

Henry Blodget vs. Ken Fisher "We Need More Debt"

Courtesy of Mish

Numerous people sent me a link to a preposterous statement by fund manager Ken Fisher regarding debt. Please consider Too Much Debt? Please. We Need MORE Debt, Says Ken Fisher.

The conventional wisdom is that Americans are struggling to crawl out from under a mountain of debt that will restrain growth and weigh down the economy for decades.

As [the following] chart shows, the US debt-to-GDP ratio recently soared to an all time high of 370%, meaning that for every $1 of output we produce, we have borrowed $3.70. This compares to a long-term debt-to-GDP average of about 150%.

click on chart for sharper image

Last time we went on a massive debt binge, in the 1920s, our debt-to-GDP ratio hit a relatively mild 250%, and we spent the better part of two decades (and the Great Depression) working it off. Many economists think the same thing will happen this time around.

But they’re wrong, says Ken Fisher, CEO of Fisher Investments ($35 billion under management), in a wildly contrarian view.

The U.S. has too little debt, not too much, Fisher says. The U.S.’s return on assets is high and interest rates are low, so our borrowing capacity is much higher than our current debt levels.

Also, Fisher says, you have to look at the U.S. in the context of the world, because the U.S. is only 25% of world GDP. The world is way under-leveraged, so one country’s particular debt-to-GDP ratio doesn’t matter.

Inquiring minds will want to play the accompanying video 

The idea that we need more debt is ludicrous. Consumers cannot service the levels of debt they have right now. This has increased defaults, foreclosures, bankruptcies, credit card writeoffs, and horrendous commercial real estate problems.

In the Business Insider Money Game Henry Blodget came to the conclusion, Ken Fisher is nuts.
 

We had Ken Fisher on TechTicker yesterday. Ken has managed money for nearly 40 years, and now has $35 billion of assets under management.

You make the big money on Wall Street when you hold a view that is so contrarian that most people think you are nuts. So Ken’s argument certainly merits consideration.


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The Blodget-Spitzer Interview

The Blodget-Spitzer Interview

Courtesy of Henry Blodget at Clusterstock

Eliot Spitzer was kind enough to sit down with me on TechTicker last week.  This was the second time I had ever met him--the first being not when he was pulverizing me as Attorney General, but later, when I was writing for Slate Magazine and he was running for Governor.  It was the first time I’d ever talked to him about any of this stuff.

It was a very interesting half-hour to say the least.  We’ll post a couple of clips here…

As many of you know, my career as a top-ranked Wall Street research analyst ended in 2002, when a then-little-known New York Attorney General named Eliot Spitzer accused me and my firm (Merrill Lynch) of producing bogus research to curry favor with banking clients.

Merrill denied and then settled the charges, but Spitzer’s allegations resonated with furious investors who had lost their shirts in the market crash.  Spitzer soon expanded his research investigation to other firms, eventually forcing the industry into a "Global Settlement" that changed the longstanding relationship between bankers and research analysts.  I, meanwhile, got tossed out of the securities industry.

For Spitzer, the research investigation was the first of many.  Over the next few years, as the newly crowned ‘Sheriff of Wall Street’, he launched similarly aggressive investigations into mutual funds, insurance, and other industries, often exposing shady practices that had come to be regarded as business as usual.

By 2003, when I was taking the first steps toward rebuilding my shattered reputation--writing commentary for Slate, The Atlantic, and other publications--Eliot Spitzer’s fame and success had soared.  In 2004, he was re-elected as Attorney General.  In 2006, he was elected Governor of New York in a landslide.  By 2007, he was frequently mentioned as a possible future presidential candidate.

Meanwhile, by the spring of last year, thanks to the generous second chance many people had given me, I was beginning to rebuild some credibility.  TechTicker was doing well, The Business Insider was growing rapidly, and Valleywag had even taken to referring to me as "the disgraced analyst everyone listens to."

Then, one day, I got a note from a New York Times reporter saying I should check out the lead story about Eliot Spitzer that had just hit their front page.  I checked it out--and my


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Zero Hedge

USPS Starts Testing Self-Driving Trucks For Long Hauls

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

The US Postal Service (USPS) has awarded TuSimple, a global self-driving truck company, a contract to haul mail across the country with self-driving trucks, a move that could save the money-losing government agency millions of dollars per year if implemented, reported a TuSimple press release.

The two-week pilot started Tuesday will haul USPS trailers about 1,000 miles bet...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

DAX (Germany) About To Send A Bearish Message To The S&P 500?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the DAX index from Germany about to send a bearish message to stocks in Europe and the States? Sure could!

This chart looks at the DAX over the past 9-years. It’s spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of rising channel (1), creating a series of higher lows and higher highs.

It looks to have created a “Double Top” as it was kissing the underside of the rising channel last year at (2).

After creating the potential double top, the DAX index has continued to create a series of lower highs, while experiencing a bearish divergence with the S...



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Phil's Favorites

Faster, more accurate diagnoses: Healthcare applications of AI research

 

Faster, more accurate diagnoses: Healthcare applications of AI research

As machine learning progresses, its applications include faster, more accurate medical diagnoses. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Seokbum Ko, University of Saskatchewan

When Google DeepMind’s AlphaGo shockingly defeated legendary Go player Lee Sedol in 2016, the terms artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning and deep learning were propelled into the technological mainstream.

BBC Newsnight: AlphaGo and the future of Artificial Intelligence.

AI is generally defined as the capacity for a compu...



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Insider Scoop

55 Biggest Movers From Yesterday

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Gainers
  • Obalon Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: OBLN) shares jumped 233.3 percent to close at $1.30 on Wednesday after the company reported expanded data from a large scale commercial use study that was presented at the Digestive Disease Week.
  • Ascent Capital Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: ASCMA) shares jumped 51.4 percent to close at $1.37 after the company announced a restructuring support agreement with Monitronics International.
  • Valeritas Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: VLRX) shares dippe...


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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap May 18, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

China – U.S. trade talk continued to dominate the week.   A heavy selloff Monday was followed by 3 up days, with Friday moderately down.

On Monday, Chinese officials announced retaliatory tariffs against the U.S., hitting $60 billion in annual exports to China with new or expanded duties that could reach 25%.

Then on Wednesday:

The Trump administration plans to delay a decision on instituting new tariffs on car and auto part imports for up to six months, according to media reports.

...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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