Posts Tagged ‘Henry Blodget’

Don’t Worry: Prosperity Is Just Around The Corner

Don’t Worry: Prosperity Is Just Around The Corner

Courtesy of Henry Blodget at Clusterstock/Business Insider

Flat World Earth - tbiAnyone who has followed perpetually troubled companies has no doubt experienced one of their favorite (and surprisingly effective) tricks:

Continually publish rosy forecasts of future recovery that sound great at the time but never actually materialize.  As the happy forecasts fail to materialize, revise them, pushing the recovery to the next year.  And so on.

This trick, of course, is not only a favorite of companies.  Wall Street analysts and governments love it, too.

In the early years of the Great Depression, for example, Herbert Hoover was fond of saying that prosperity was just around the corner.

And it was.  As long as you measured in decades.

Today, President Obama is selling his new budget.  It includes a horrifying deficit for this year, but then a smaller deficit in all the following years.  Prosperity, in other words, is just around the corner.

Democratic Deficits

But it was just around the corner last year, too.  Check out this chart from the WSJ that shows what President Obama’s soothsayers foresaw for future deficits at this time last year:

Budget Deficit 2009

Last year at this time, 2009 was going to be the worst year, followed by a happy reduction in the deficit in 2010 and 2011 and so on.

This year, 2010 is going to be the worst year, followed by a happy reduction in the deficit in 2011 and 2012.  And so on.

And next year?

Never mind.  Just rest assured: Prosperity is just around the corner. 

See Also:

So, How Do You Think This Movie Will End?

We Are So Screwed

Goldman: After Six Months, We Can Safely Say This Is No V-Shaped Recovery

 


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Felix Salmon: Henry Blodget Should Be Banned From The Industry

Felix Salmon: Henry Blodget Should Be Banned From The Industry

henryblodget5.jpgCourtesy of Henry Blodget at Clusterstock

The king of financial bloggers, Felix Salmon, is annoyed by me.

Specifically, if I read him correctly, Felix is annoyed that:

1) I have a job that in a just world would belong to a normal out-of-work journalist who hasn’t been at the center of a huge financial scandal, and

2) I have not explained every last detail of my scandalous background in my Business Insider bio, which states merely that, at the end of my Wall Street career, I was "keelhauled by then-Attorney General Eliot Spitzer over conflicts of interest between research and banking."

Well, it is no fun to annoy the king of financial bloggers, so let me address these points, starting with the second one.

In the 7 years since I settled the widely publicized civil securities-fraud complaint brought against me by Eliot Spitzer and the SEC, I have contributed commentary to more than a dozen news organizations, including Slate, Fortune, NPR, MSNBC, CNN, FT, the BBC, The Atlantic, Forbes, The New York Times, Bloomberg, EuroMoney, Yahoo (I’m a host of their finance show, TechTicker), and CNBC.  When appropriate, I have gone to great lengths to detail every last bit of what had happened, so the readers, viewers, and listeners of these organizations would know exactly who they were dealing with (cue scary music).

felix salmonIn the early years, I also launched my own blog, Internet Outsider, in which I addressed what had happened in as much detail as I was able to.  (Thanks to various legal agreements, I have never been able to discuss the allegations publicly.  Eventually, when there’s not a soul left on earth who gives a damn, I’ll be able to tell my side of the story.  My grandchildren will love it!) 

Two years ago, when we launched Business Insider, I again frequently discussed what had happened to me, lest there were any readers who had not already gotten sick of my story.  This effort was made easier by the help of the folks who posted Eliot Spitzer’s press release in the comments whenever I said something they disagreed with.  Whenever possible, I responded to readers’ questions about


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Henry Blodget vs. Ken Fisher “We Need More Debt”

Is Ken Fisher talking his book, or as Henry Blodget believes, simply nuts? – Ilene

Henry Blodget vs. Ken Fisher "We Need More Debt"

Courtesy of Mish

Numerous people sent me a link to a preposterous statement by fund manager Ken Fisher regarding debt. Please consider Too Much Debt? Please. We Need MORE Debt, Says Ken Fisher.

The conventional wisdom is that Americans are struggling to crawl out from under a mountain of debt that will restrain growth and weigh down the economy for decades.

As [the following] chart shows, the US debt-to-GDP ratio recently soared to an all time high of 370%, meaning that for every $1 of output we produce, we have borrowed $3.70. This compares to a long-term debt-to-GDP average of about 150%.

click on chart for sharper image

Last time we went on a massive debt binge, in the 1920s, our debt-to-GDP ratio hit a relatively mild 250%, and we spent the better part of two decades (and the Great Depression) working it off. Many economists think the same thing will happen this time around.

But they’re wrong, says Ken Fisher, CEO of Fisher Investments ($35 billion under management), in a wildly contrarian view.

The U.S. has too little debt, not too much, Fisher says. The U.S.’s return on assets is high and interest rates are low, so our borrowing capacity is much higher than our current debt levels.

Also, Fisher says, you have to look at the U.S. in the context of the world, because the U.S. is only 25% of world GDP. The world is way under-leveraged, so one country’s particular debt-to-GDP ratio doesn’t matter.

Inquiring minds will want to play the accompanying video 

The idea that we need more debt is ludicrous. Consumers cannot service the levels of debt they have right now. This has increased defaults, foreclosures, bankruptcies, credit card writeoffs, and horrendous commercial real estate problems.

In the Business Insider Money Game Henry Blodget came to the conclusion, Ken Fisher is nuts.
 

We had Ken Fisher on TechTicker yesterday. Ken has managed money for nearly 40 years, and now has $35 billion of assets under management.

You make the big money on Wall Street when you hold a view that is so contrarian that most people think you are nuts. So Ken’s argument certainly merits consideration.


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The Blodget-Spitzer Interview

The Blodget-Spitzer Interview

Courtesy of Henry Blodget at Clusterstock

Eliot Spitzer was kind enough to sit down with me on TechTicker last week.  This was the second time I had ever met him--the first being not when he was pulverizing me as Attorney General, but later, when I was writing for Slate Magazine and he was running for Governor.  It was the first time I’d ever talked to him about any of this stuff.

It was a very interesting half-hour to say the least.  We’ll post a couple of clips here…

As many of you know, my career as a top-ranked Wall Street research analyst ended in 2002, when a then-little-known New York Attorney General named Eliot Spitzer accused me and my firm (Merrill Lynch) of producing bogus research to curry favor with banking clients.

Merrill denied and then settled the charges, but Spitzer’s allegations resonated with furious investors who had lost their shirts in the market crash.  Spitzer soon expanded his research investigation to other firms, eventually forcing the industry into a "Global Settlement" that changed the longstanding relationship between bankers and research analysts.  I, meanwhile, got tossed out of the securities industry.

For Spitzer, the research investigation was the first of many.  Over the next few years, as the newly crowned ‘Sheriff of Wall Street’, he launched similarly aggressive investigations into mutual funds, insurance, and other industries, often exposing shady practices that had come to be regarded as business as usual.

By 2003, when I was taking the first steps toward rebuilding my shattered reputation--writing commentary for Slate, The Atlantic, and other publications--Eliot Spitzer’s fame and success had soared.  In 2004, he was re-elected as Attorney General.  In 2006, he was elected Governor of New York in a landslide.  By 2007, he was frequently mentioned as a possible future presidential candidate.

Meanwhile, by the spring of last year, thanks to the generous second chance many people had given me, I was beginning to rebuild some credibility.  TechTicker was doing well, The Business Insider was growing rapidly, and Valleywag had even taken to referring to me as "the disgraced analyst everyone listens to."

Then, one day, I got a note from a New York Times reporter saying I should check out the lead story about Eliot Spitzer that had just hit their front page.  I checked it out--and my


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Phil's Favorites

Up and Down

 

Up and Down

Courtesy of 

This stat from @SentimentTrader blew me away:

“The S&P 500 fund, SPY, has been up at least 0.5% for 5 straight days. That’s tied for the longest streak since its inception.”

I wasn’t taken aback because of how strong the markets have been recently, but that streak of five days sounded really small to me. I almost couldn’t believe it was right. But after looking at the data, the shock wore off.

The S&P 500 has gained >0.5% on 28% of all days (going back to 1993), so the likelihood of...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Is the COVID-19 pandemic cure really worse than the disease? Here's what our research found

 

Is the COVID-19 pandemic cure really worse than the disease? Here's what our research found

The economic impact of coronavirus restrictions can also take a human toll. mladenbalinovac via Getty Images

Courtesy of Olga Yakusheva, University of Michigan

The Research Brief is a short take about interesting academic work.

The big idea

The coronavirus pandemic catapulted the country into one of the deepest recessions in U.S. history, leaving millions ...



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ValueWalk

Financial Stress Is The Second Global Crisis We Are Facing

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

No matter what level of income you’re on, a global financial crisis can be extremely stressful for anyone. It boils down to one simple reason; uncertainty.

Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Humans hate uncertainty. In fact, a study in 2016 showed that humans find uncertainty even more stressful than knowing something bad is definitely going to happen. Uncertainty causes a huge amount of stress on the human body, and i...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Here's Why QQQ and Large Cap Tech Stocks May Rally Another 10%!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The long-term trend for large-cap tech stocks remains strongly in place.

And despite the steep rally out of the March lows, the index may be headed 10 percent higher.

Today’s chart highlights the $QQQ Nasdaq 100 ETF on a “monthly” basis. As you can see, the large-cap tech index touched its lower up-trend channel support in March at (1) before reversing higher.

It may now be targeting the top of the trend channel at (2), which also marks the 261.8 Fibonacci extension (based on 2000 highs and 2002 lows). That Fib level is $290 on $QQQ.

If so, this upside target for $QQQ is still 10% above current prices. Stay tuned!

This article was first written ...



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Zero Hedge

Operation Warp Speed Awards Novavax $1.6 Billion For COVID Vaccine 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

With US equity futures under pressure on Tuesday morning - it's not surprising whatsoever that hopium-inspiring vaccine headlines are hitting the tape. 

Novavax was awarded $1.6 Billion in funding via Operation Warp Speed to support "large-scale manufacturing of NVX-COV2373."

  • NOVAVAX ANNOUNCES $1.6 BILLION FUNDING FROM OPERATION WARP SPEED

...

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The Technical Traders

Big Funds to Pull Money OUT of Stocks: 2nd Wave to Hit Economy

Courtesy of Technical Traders

TOPICS IN THIS INTERVIEW:

-Big funds to pull money out of markets.

-Falling dollar to really start to benefit gold

-Gold miners showing signs of life.

-$2,000 gold will change people’s mindsets in gold.

-Gold or silver-backed currency will send metals through the roof.

Get Chris Vermeulen’s Trades – Click Here

...

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Chart School

Golds quick price move increases the odds of a correction

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Every market corrects, maybe profit taking, maybe of allowing those who missed out, to get in!


The current open interest on the gold contract looks to high after a very fast price move, it looks like 2008 may be repeating. A quick flushing out of the weak hands open interest may take place before a real advance in price takes place. The correction may be on the back of a wider sell off of risk assets (either before of after US elections) as all assets suffer contagion selling (just like 2008).

This blog view is a gold price correction of 10% to 20% range is a buying opportunity. Of course we may see  a very minor price correction but a long time correction, a price or time is correction is expected, we shall watch and...

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Lee's Free Thinking

These Charts Show COVID 19 Is Spreading in the US and Will Kill the Economy

 

These Charts Show COVID 19 Is Spreading in the US and Will Kill the Economy

Courtesy of  

The COVID 19 pandemic is, predictably, worsening again in much of the US. Only the Northeast, and to a lesser extent some Midwestern states, have been consistently improving. And that trend could also reverse as those states fully reopen.

The problem in the US seems to be widespread public resistance to recommended practices of social distancing and mask wearing. In countries where these practices have been practi...



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Digital Currencies

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

 

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

App-etising? LDprod

Courtesy of Michael Rogerson, University of Bath and Glenn Parry, University of Surrey

Food supply chains were vulnerable long before the coronavirus pandemic. Recent scandals have ranged from modern slavery ...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

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Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

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Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.