Posts Tagged ‘homebuilders’

Take It From Someone Who Called the Housing Crash

Take It From Someone Who Called the Housing Crash (and its victims) in 2005, We Are About Midway Through the Downturn, If That Far

Courtesy of Reggie Middleton at Zero Hedge 

Bloomberg reports US Home Prices Fall Again:

Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) — U.S. home prices dropped 3.3 percent in July from a year earlier, the eighth consecutive decline, as foreclosed properties flooded the market.

Prices fell 0.5 percent from June, the Federal Housing Finance Agency in Washington said in a report today. Economists had projected prices to fall 0.2 percent from the previous month, based on the average of 15 estimates in a Bloomberg survey. The agency revised the previously reported May-to-June decline to 1.2 percent from 0.3 percent.

Foreclosures are boosting the supply of available properties and reducing prices, even as mortgage rates tumble to record lows. The time it would take to clear the market of homes for sale was 12.5 months in July, the highest in more than a decade of data, according to the National Association of Realtors. Banks seized a record 95,364 properties from delinquent borrowers in August, according to RealtyTrac Inc., an Irvine, California-based seller of housing data.

This should be of no surprise to anyone that reads the BoomBust or follows me regularly. I’ve been warning about the crash for over 5 years now, and those who feel we are nearing a bottom need to take out their spreadsheets and plug in some historical numbers.

 

Paying Subscribers are welcome to download the mortgage and credit template that was used in the original US (Don’t) Stress (US) tests, otherwise known as SCAP. We have taken the liberty to update the template on a periodic basis for the government, since it appears they are not forcing the banks to do so :-) SCAP Assumptions Updated_09082010 Web Version. This model shows a weakness in the Case Shiller method of following prices in that the CS doesn’t include investment properties (usually the first to go into foreclosure), new construction, and REOs. As a matter of fact, Case Shiller actually looked slightly rosy as of late. The following graphs were generated from  SCAP Assumptions Updated_09082010 Web Version..

Notice how the federal numbers show falls where CS doesn’t. Signs on the street tell me the federal numbers…
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Banks, Transports Foreshadow Equities Decline

Banks, Transports Foreshadow Equities Decline

Former Westpac bankCourtesy of Ben, the Financial Ninja

FN: I’ve pointed out some of the divergences over the last few weeks that are mentioned in this Bloomberg article.

Banks Falling 23% Since May Foreshadow S&P 500 Slump (Update1): "Declines of more than 20 percent in regional banks and homebuilders and the failure of transportation companies to erase their annual loss may be signs the rally in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is about to fizzle.

Smaller lenders in the gauge lost 23 percent since climbing to a four-month peak on May 8, while builders tumbled 26 percent from May 4, when they reached the highest level since October. Concern that mortgage rates, credit losses and foreclosures are increasing spurred retreats in the companies forecast to be among the biggest beneficiaries of $12.8 trillion in government stimulus spending.

Slumps in bank stocks foreshadowed previous declines in the S&P 500 as investors focused on real-estate losses that curbed lending. Regional banks’ 51 percent plunge over 28 days starting Dec. 8 came a month before the S&P 500 began a 28 percent slump to a 12-year low of 676.53. The lenders’ all-time high in February 2007 occurred seven months before the S&P 500’s record.

FN: I pointed out three times that banks had stalled, rolled over and were threatening to break down in: Financials: Charts Say "Decision Time", Update1, Update2.

“If housing and credit led us into all this, they will have to stabilize,” said Mark Demos, a Minneapolis-based money manager at Fifth Third Asset Management, which oversees $18.7 billion. “There’s a growing concern that they’re not out of the woods. Less bad does not equal good.”

Speculation government spending will end the first global recession since World War II helped push up the S&P 500 by 15 percent since March 31, the biggest quarterly increase since 1998. Financial shares gained the most among the S&P 500’s 10 industry groups, rising 35 percent. Futures on the index rose 0.6 percent to 920.60 at 7:12 a.m. in New York today.

Stocks began to decline three weeks ago as economic reports spurred speculation the U.S. economy isn’t recovering fast enough to justify the S&P 500’s 36 percent advance since March 9. The Federal Reserve said in its


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Phil's Favorites

QAnon is an Attack on Democracy and Must Be Eliminated

 

Here's a repost of Jim Stewartson's fascinating post about Qanon, in case you missed it the first time around. Jim followed up with a tweet on the characters in the graphic below, which I added at the end of this article. 

QAnon is an Attack on Democracy and Must Be Eliminated

Courtesy of Jim Stewartson@jimstewartson

[Originally published 12-17-20, updated 1-12-21.]

This is a chart developed over several months of investigation. It shows the individuals, functions and relationships of the top leadership of QAnon as currently und...



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Zero Hedge

Not As Green As You Think - Global EV Push Sparks Cobalt Chaos

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Global cobalt prices per metric ton are up more than 20% since the beginning of this year as increasing electric vehicle demand has strained global supply chains. 

WSJ spoke with auto and battery experts about cobalt, a metal found in lithium-ion batteries. Besides EVs, the blue metal is found in virtually every consumer electro...



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Politics

Far-right groups move to messaging apps as tech companies crack down on extremist social media

 

Far-right groups move to messaging apps as tech companies crack down on extremist social media

Far-right groups like the Proud Boys, seen here marching in Washington, D.C., on Dec. 12, are increasingly organizing their activities on messaging services like Telegram. Stephanie Keith/Getty Images

Courtesy of Kevin GrishamCalifornia State University San Bernardino

Right-wing extremists called for open revolt against the U.S. government ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Bitcoin Parabolic Rally Reversal Faces Big Support Test!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

One of the biggest breakouts of 2020 came by way of Bitcoin. And it was epic.

The coronavirus crash saw the cryptocurrency retest its 2018 lows before rocketing higher in parabolic fashion.

Did Bitcoin Peak? What’s Next?

Today we examine a “weekly” chart of Bitcoin, highlighting its parabolic rally… and recent reversal lower.

The rally in Bitcoin surged all the way to the 361% Fibonacci extension level at (1) before creating the largest bearish reversal in years.

In just a few weeks time, Bitcoin is testing its 261% Fibonacci level near 31,000 at (2). This is a big test of support for the cryptocurrency. A “weekl...



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ValueWalk

Hybrid Electric Vehicles: A Stay of Execution for NiMH Batteries

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Hybrid Electric Vehicles: A Stay of Execution for NiMH Batteries, Explores IDTechEx

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

NiMH Batteries Are Still Commonly Used

When we talk about battery-electric vehicles, the lithium-ion battery is dominant; however, for full hybrid electric vehicles (those that have electric-only modes but do not plug-in), NiMH batteries are still the most common battery on the road. With the growing market for hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), will this drive further demand for NiMH batteries and stop them from being eliminated from the automotive market?...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Saturday, 11 July 2020, 05:26:16 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: This is lack of liquidity means support is likely to break if it is tested hard!



Date Found: Saturday, 11 July 2020, 09:51:58 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: Nasdaq losing momentum.



Da...

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Biotech/COVID-19

The simple reason West Virginia leads the nation in vaccinating nursing home residents

 

The simple reason West Virginia leads the nation in vaccinating nursing home residents

By mid-January, only about a quarter of the COVID-19 vaccines distributed for U.S. nursing homes through the federal program had reached people’s arms. Paul Bersebach/MediaNews Group/Orange County Register via Getty Images

Courtesy of Tinglong Dai, Johns Hopkins University School of Nursing

The urgency of vaccinating nursing home residents is evident in the numbers. The COVID-19 pandemic has claimed the lives of mo...



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Mapping The Market

The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases

 

The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases

By Martin Armstrong, Statista, Jan 12, 2021

This regularly updated infographic keeps track of the countries with the most confirmed Covid-19 cases. The United States is still at the top of the list, with a total now exceeding the 22 million mark, according to Johns Hopkins University figures. The total global figure is now over 85 million, while there have been more than 1.9 million deaths.

You will find more infographics at ...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin: why the price has exploded - and where it goes from here

 

Bitcoin: why the price has exploded – and where it goes from here

B is for blast-off (but also bubble). 3DJustincase

Courtesy of Andrew Urquhart, University of Reading

Bitcoin achieved a remarkable rise in 2020 in spite of many things that would normally make investors wary, including US-China tensions, Brexit and, of course, an international pandemic. From a year-low on the daily charts of US$4,748 (£3,490) in the middle of March as pandemic fears took hold, bitcoin rose to ju...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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