Posts Tagged ‘housing data’

Rosenberg Explains Why Not One New Home Priced Over $750,000 Sold In July

Rosenberg Explains Why Not One New Home Priced Over $750,000 Sold In July

Political cartoon by Thomas Nast (1840 - 1902) depicting the 'Fine-Ass' Committee,' a group of Democratic Congressmen as donkeys, blowing financial bubbles after the Panic of 1873. (Photo by Kean Collection/Getty Images)

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

The most damning words on the recent horrendous housing data come from David Rosenberg: and since he has long been spot on in his macro observations, the 15% or so in additional price losses anticipated, will make this depression a truly memorable one (we will investigate not only the surging supply side of the housing equation, but the plunging demand side in a later post), and will leave the Fed with absolutely no choice other than the nuclear option: "If the truth be told, if we are talking about reversing all the bubble appreciation that began a decade ago, then we are talking about another 15% downside from here. The excess inventory data alone tell us that this has a realistic chance of occurring…The high-end market, in particular, is under tremendous pressure. In fact, it is becoming non-existent. Guess how many homes prices above $750k managed to sell in July. Answer — zero, nada, rien; and for the second month in a row."

From today’s Breakfast With Rosie

Once again, the consensus was fooled. It was looking for 330k on new home sales for July and instead they sank to a record low of 276k units at an annual rate. And, just to add insult to injury, June was revised down, to 315k from 330k. Just as resales undercut the 2009 depressed low by 15%, new home sales have done so by 19%. Imagine that even with mortgage rates down 100 basis points in the past year to historic lows, not to mention at least eight different government programs to spur homeownership, home sales have undercut the recession lows by double-digits.

This is what we have been saying for some time, in the aftermath of a credit bubble burst and a massive asset deflation, trauma has set in. The rupture to confidence and spending from our central bankers’ and policymakers’ willingness to allow the prior credit cycle to go parabolic has come at a heavy price in terms of future economic performance. Attitudes towards discretionary spending, credit and housing have been altered, likely for a generation.

The scars have apparently not healed from the horrific experience with defaults, delinquencies and deleveraging of the past two years — talk about a horror flick in 3D. The number…
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ZANDI: DON’T BELIEVE THE HOUSING DATA

ZANDI: DON’T BELIEVE THE HOUSING DATA

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

Mark Zandi of Moody’s says the recent strength in housing data is almost entirely due to seasonal factors and government intervention.  Zandi says housing data is likely to dip again after the April data is released:

Source: Bloomberg TV


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MORE ON THE HOUSING DATA….

MORE ON THE HOUSING DATA….

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Mark Hanson delves even deeper into the housing data.  It’s very hard to make an argument that sheds his superb analysis in anything other than a bearish light:

Year-to-date 2009 sales are 20k FEWER than 2008, one of the worst years on record. And we spent hundreds of billions to achieve these results.

MH1

From 30k feet, this is your housing recovery.  What would have sales been without spending hundreds of billions on pulling out and forward demand from first time homeowners and investors?

MH2

Remember, organic move-up/across/down buyers have always led the market. First timers and investors have always been the weakest segments and cannot carry the market for long. This highlights the most important factor plaguing the housing market — epidemic negative equity prohibiting the typical homeowner from selling and re-buying. Epidemic negative equity is only fixed by ‘years’.

MH3

The tax credit extended the 2009 purch season a month (green) but as you can see from the MoM drop, seasonality reigns supreme. When this last push to get in before tax credit sunset, it sets the market up or a cash-for-clunkers effect over the near-term. If the credit is extended, it simply takes the pressure off and allows buyers to shop vs panic buy. Either way, the fundamentally weak housing market will show itself over the near term.

MH4

Lastly, in today’s release Lawrence Yun commented on the falling prices saying that…

“The national median existing-home price3 for all housing types was $174,900 in September, which is 8.5 percent lower than September 2008. Distressed properties continue to downwardly distort the median price because they generally sell at a discount relative to traditional homes in the same area.”

But distressed sales were the lowest of the year at 29% from 31% last month due to HAMP and the lack of foreclosure inventory. Therefore, the median is actually being skewed higher as more orginic and short sales went off towards the end of the season.

“Early information from a large annual consumer study to be released November 13, the 2009 National Association of Realtors® Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, shows that first-time home buyers accounted for more than 45 percent of home sales during the past year. A separate practitioner survey shows that distressed homes accounted for 29 percent of transactions in September.“

Some of the best real estate analysis around.  Thanks Mark!

Source: www.mhanson.com

 


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THE MANIC MARKET

THE MANIC MARKET

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

 


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Zero Hedge

EU Reportedly Pushes Decision On Brexit Delay Until Friday

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Amid rumors that UK PM Boris Johnson might capitulate and agree to delay Brexit Day until the end of January, reports have surfaced claiming that the EU won't release its decision on postponement until Friday.

  • EU DECISION ON BREXIT DELAY WILL PROBABLY COME FRIDAY: OFFICIALS

Sources from within No. 10 Downing Street have reportedly been talking with reporters all day, claiming that if there is an extension, the Johnson government will opt to push for an election, and that the conservatives will campaign on their plan.

...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

S&P Needs This Key Indicator To Experience A Breakout!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is a leading Tech sector about to send the broad market a key message? In our opinion, yes!

This chart looks at the Semiconductor/S&P ratio over the past couple of years.

When the ratio peaked around March of last year at (1), numerous indices in the states (NYSE, Mid-Caps, Small Caps) and around the world (EEM & EFA) started to create a series of lower highs.

The SMH/SPY ratio is again testing the highs of early 2018 at (2).

Many indices in the states and around the world, need this ratio to continue to move higher/experience if the...



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Phil's Favorites

Might consciousness and free will be the aces up our sleeves when it comes to competing with robots?

 

Might consciousness and free will be the aces up our sleeves when it comes to competing with robots?

Our advantage lies in incommensurables, and it’ll grow in importance. Franck V. on Unsplash

Courtesy of Allan McCay, University of Sydney

The rise of artificial intelligence has led to widespread concern about the role of humans in the workplaces of the future.

Indeed, Israeli historian, futurist and publishing sensation Yuval Noah Harari warns in his most recent book 21 Lessons for the 21st Century that there might one day be little need for human...



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Insider Scoop

A Peek Into The Markets: US Stock Futures Down; Crude Oil Falls 1%

Courtesy of Benzinga

Pre-open movers

U.S. stock futures traded lower in early pre-market trade. The FHFA house price index for August will be released at 9:00 a.m. ET.

Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 27 points to 26,736 while the Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures traded fell 2.75 points to 2,991.75. Futures for the Nasdaq 100 index fell 5.25 points to 7,853.50.

...



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Digital Currencies

Blockchain voting is vulnerable to hackers, software glitches and bad ID photos - among other problems

 

Blockchain voting is vulnerable to hackers, software glitches and bad ID photos – among other problems

How secure is online voting with blockchain technology? WhiteDragon/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Nir Kshetri, University of North Carolina – Greensboro

A developing technology called “blockchain” has gotten attention from election officials, startups and even Democratic presidential candidate Andrew Yang as a ...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Repo Market Bank Regulations and the Slings And Arrows of Outrageous Leverage

 

Repo Market Bank Regulations and the Slings And Arrows of Outrageous Leverage

Courtesy of 

Are repo market regulations really behind the money market’s problems? That’s what bankers and their hired mouthpieces are saying.

So I need to get a few things off my chest about this notion that post financial crash Dodd-Frank bank regulations are the cause of the current repo market problems.

It’s total bullsh*t. The bankers and their superleveraged hed...



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The Technical Traders

Daily Market Forecast and Trading Patterns

Courtesy of Technical Traders

CLICK HERE TO GET REAL TIME TRADE ALERTS!

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Chart School

Gold Stocks Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Gold stocks are swinging back forth between the range, and a break out swing higher is due. Gold stocks are holding a near perfect Wyckoff accumulation pattern. All should get ready to play this sector. Yet we must recognize that gold stocks are a one of the most crazy rides at the stock market fair, so play very carefully.

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GDX PnF chart from within the video

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Important channels around the HUI.
...

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Biotech

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Courtesy of  , Visual Capitalist

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless co...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

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