Posts Tagged ‘housing data’

Rosenberg Explains Why Not One New Home Priced Over $750,000 Sold In July

Rosenberg Explains Why Not One New Home Priced Over $750,000 Sold In July

Political cartoon by Thomas Nast (1840 - 1902) depicting the 'Fine-Ass' Committee,' a group of Democratic Congressmen as donkeys, blowing financial bubbles after the Panic of 1873. (Photo by Kean Collection/Getty Images)

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

The most damning words on the recent horrendous housing data come from David Rosenberg: and since he has long been spot on in his macro observations, the 15% or so in additional price losses anticipated, will make this depression a truly memorable one (we will investigate not only the surging supply side of the housing equation, but the plunging demand side in a later post), and will leave the Fed with absolutely no choice other than the nuclear option: "If the truth be told, if we are talking about reversing all the bubble appreciation that began a decade ago, then we are talking about another 15% downside from here. The excess inventory data alone tell us that this has a realistic chance of occurring…The high-end market, in particular, is under tremendous pressure. In fact, it is becoming non-existent. Guess how many homes prices above $750k managed to sell in July. Answer — zero, nada, rien; and for the second month in a row."

From today’s Breakfast With Rosie

Once again, the consensus was fooled. It was looking for 330k on new home sales for July and instead they sank to a record low of 276k units at an annual rate. And, just to add insult to injury, June was revised down, to 315k from 330k. Just as resales undercut the 2009 depressed low by 15%, new home sales have done so by 19%. Imagine that even with mortgage rates down 100 basis points in the past year to historic lows, not to mention at least eight different government programs to spur homeownership, home sales have undercut the recession lows by double-digits.

This is what we have been saying for some time, in the aftermath of a credit bubble burst and a massive asset deflation, trauma has set in. The rupture to confidence and spending from our central bankers’ and policymakers’ willingness to allow the prior credit cycle to go parabolic has come at a heavy price in terms of future economic performance. Attitudes towards discretionary spending, credit and housing have been altered, likely for a generation.

The scars have apparently not healed from the horrific experience with defaults, delinquencies and deleveraging of the past two years — talk about a horror flick in 3D. The number…
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ZANDI: DON’T BELIEVE THE HOUSING DATA

ZANDI: DON’T BELIEVE THE HOUSING DATA

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

Mark Zandi of Moody’s says the recent strength in housing data is almost entirely due to seasonal factors and government intervention.  Zandi says housing data is likely to dip again after the April data is released:

Source: Bloomberg TV


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MORE ON THE HOUSING DATA….

MORE ON THE HOUSING DATA….

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Mark Hanson delves even deeper into the housing data.  It’s very hard to make an argument that sheds his superb analysis in anything other than a bearish light:

Year-to-date 2009 sales are 20k FEWER than 2008, one of the worst years on record. And we spent hundreds of billions to achieve these results.

MH1

From 30k feet, this is your housing recovery.  What would have sales been without spending hundreds of billions on pulling out and forward demand from first time homeowners and investors?

MH2

Remember, organic move-up/across/down buyers have always led the market. First timers and investors have always been the weakest segments and cannot carry the market for long. This highlights the most important factor plaguing the housing market — epidemic negative equity prohibiting the typical homeowner from selling and re-buying. Epidemic negative equity is only fixed by ‘years’.

MH3

The tax credit extended the 2009 purch season a month (green) but as you can see from the MoM drop, seasonality reigns supreme. When this last push to get in before tax credit sunset, it sets the market up or a cash-for-clunkers effect over the near-term. If the credit is extended, it simply takes the pressure off and allows buyers to shop vs panic buy. Either way, the fundamentally weak housing market will show itself over the near term.

MH4

Lastly, in today’s release Lawrence Yun commented on the falling prices saying that…

“The national median existing-home price3 for all housing types was $174,900 in September, which is 8.5 percent lower than September 2008. Distressed properties continue to downwardly distort the median price because they generally sell at a discount relative to traditional homes in the same area.”

But distressed sales were the lowest of the year at 29% from 31% last month due to HAMP and the lack of foreclosure inventory. Therefore, the median is actually being skewed higher as more orginic and short sales went off towards the end of the season.

“Early information from a large annual consumer study to be released November 13, the 2009 National Association of Realtors® Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, shows that first-time home buyers accounted for more than 45 percent of home sales during the past year. A separate practitioner survey shows that distressed homes accounted for 29 percent of transactions in September.“

Some of the best real estate analysis around.  Thanks Mark!

Source: www.mhanson.com

 


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THE MANIC MARKET

THE MANIC MARKET

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

 


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Phil's Favorites

Market Correction Before The Santa Rally Has Started

 

Market Correction Before The Santa Rally Has Started

Courtesy of Lance Roberts, Real Investment Advice

Last week, we asked if there would be a market correction before “Santa visits Broad and Wall?”

“Investors’ ‘wish lists’ are hung by the chimney with care, hopeful the ‘Santa Claus rally’ will soon be there. While they remain ‘snug in their beds, the historical data dances in the heads.’ The chart below from @themarketear shows the annual “seasonality” from 1985 through 2019.

It certainly seems there is little to worry a...



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Zero Hedge

Risk Assets Don't Have A Central Bank Superhero This Time

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

By Michael Read, Bloomberg Markets Live commentator and reporter

Why hasn’t risk bounced?

Why hasn’t there been a large troupe of dip buyers at the ready after Friday’s rout? 

There are three main factors behind the underwhelming price action so far this week:

  1. The emergence of previous variants has come as central bankers were roughly midway through an easing program: there was a backdrop of asset purchases and dovish forward guidance to placate an angsty market. This time not so much, and while policy makers may twe...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Omicron: why the WHO designated it a variant of concern

 

Omicron: why the WHO designated it a variant of concern

Courtesy of Ed Feil, University of Bath

The World Health Organization (WHO) has announced that the B.1.1.529 lineage of Sars-CoV-2, thought to have emerged in southern Africa, is to be designated as a variant of concern (VoC) named omicron. This decision has already precipitated a broad shift in priorities in pandemic management on a global scale.

The WHO has recommended, among other things, increased surveillance, particularly virus genome sequencing; focused research to understand the dangers posed by this...



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Politics

The first Thanksgiving is a key chapter in America's origin story - but what happened in Virginia four months later mattered much more

 

The first Thanksgiving is a key chapter in America’s origin story – but what happened in Virginia four months later mattered much more

In the 19th century, there was a campaign to link the Thanksgiving holiday to the Pilgrims. Bettman/Getty Images

Courtesy of Peter C. Mancall, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences

This year marks the 400th anniversary of the first Thanksgiving in New England. Remembered and retold as an allegory for perseverance and cooper...



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Chart School

Gold and Silver still working higher

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Using Gann Angles from zero we can time the next run up, and it is near.

The last two days gold and silver are down on the back of central bankers talking the US Dollar higher in a attempt to off set inflation. A rising dollar is a form of tightening. Also the talk of a faster 'taper' has sent interest rates higher. But Luke Gromen knows this cant not last.

@LukeGromen Externally-financed twin deficit nations with insufficient external financing (ie the US, not Japan) cannot abide rising real rates for long.


RTT Comments: What this means a higher US Dollar makes it harder for those outside the US to buy the vast quantity of US Treasuries. 


U...

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Digital Currencies

Stablecoins: these cryptocurrencies threaten the financial system, but no one is getting to grips with them

 

Stablecoins: these cryptocurrencies threaten the financial system, but no one is getting to grips with them

Safe as houses? iQoncept

Courtesy of Jean-Philippe Serbera, Sheffield Hallam University

Cryptocurrencies have had an exceptional year, reaching a combined value of more than US$3 trillion (£2.2 trillion) for the first time in November. The market seems to have benefited from the public having tim...



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Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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