Posts Tagged ‘HSBC research report’

AND NOW FOR THE HARD PART….

MUST READ: AND NOW FOR THE HARD PART….

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

I’ve spent a lot of time here talking about the major differences between the current recession and the types of recessions that most investors have grown accustomed to.  This literally isn’t your father’s recession.  Unfortunately, many are making the mistake of applying recent recessionary data to come to the conclusions that we’re going to experience a ‘82, ‘91 or ‘02 type of recovery.  I believe they are sorely mistaken.  There is no doubt that we averted a serious crisis last fall, but that doesn’t mean we are out of the woods.  I have often noted that there is a huge difference between real recovery and the deceleration in economic declines.  This means the the hardest part of the cycle  is likely ahead of us.  As we’ve said before, this is a two part credit crisis.

In a recent research report HSBC notes:

The progress seen so far could yet prove to be the easiest part of the recovery…with a number of formidable, structural challenges awaiting on the horizon.

However, financial markets, we suspect, may be about to find out that it’s often better to travel than arrive. Despite all the developments of the past year, we believe that the most formidable challenges may lie ahead, and that the more demanding questions are yet to be answered. It now seems likely that the worst outcomes which threatened last autumn have been averted, but it’s far from certain that a solid, durable recovery will emerge over the coming twelve months or, when abstracting from the cycle entirely, just what economic underpinnings remain.

Among the greenest of the green shoots has been China’s sharp rebound in recent months.  HSBC, however, is skeptical of China’s positive impact and believes the optimism is a bit overdone:

At first glance, the sharp rebound in China’s fixed investment (up 34% year-on-year in May) certainly sits oddly with the continued collapse in imports (down 25% over the same period), but the steep decline in import values is at least partly explained by commodity prices, which are still much lower than a year ago. China’s import volumes of iron ore and oil are, in fact, among the few that have shown any significant revival recently and the ongoing infrastructure investment suggests this is set to continue, bringing obvious benefits


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Zero Hedge

European Funds Post Stunning $835 Billion In Trading Losses For First Half Of 2020

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Putting a face to some of the very real economic impact from the coronavirus are European funds that suffered a combined 706.4 billion euros in trading losses ($835 billion USD) over the first half of 2020, according to Refinitiv Lipper data released Wednesday and reported on by Reuters.

Like many other industries, the pandemic had its way with European funds ...



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Phil's Favorites

Post-COVID, there'll be less of a reason to cut company tax than before

 

Post-COVID, there'll be less of a reason to cut company tax than before

Andrey Bayda/Shutterstock

Courtesy of Janine Dixon, Victoria University and Jason Nassios, Victoria University

They’re at it again, pushing lower company tax as a way to resuscitate the economy.

The arguments were well ventilated at the time the government pushed for ...



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The Technical Traders

Everything You Need to Know About Silver... and More

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Listen to Chris talk with Jim about Silver on Silver Radio. Chris and Jim explore the effect on Silver prices if a Black Swan event occurs, potential bullion shortage. They also talk about silver shorts and the ‘natural’ price of silver but-for market manipulation. We still think Silver will be the Super Hero of metals! Listen up as all of your questions about silver are answered here.

...

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ValueWalk

Looking to buy a business? Here's everything you must consider

By Michelle Jones. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Are you looking to buy a business? Or did you lose a job and have found that the prospects of getting another similar one are not that positive. You may also be thinking about buying a business as an investment, which can be lucrative.

Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Whatever your reason for looking to buy a business, there are many things to keep in mind. Simply coming up with the idea to buy a business is the easy part. Now you must figure out where to look for businesses to buy...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver Headed Back To $50, Top Of The Cup & Handle Pattern?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Could Silver be creating a multi-decade bullish “Cup & Handle” pattern? Possible!

Did a retest of a handle breakout take place in March at (1), where Silver created one of the largest bullish reversals in decades? Possible!

Could Silver be creating a 40-year bullish pattern? Anything is possible! I humbly have to say share this; I’ve been in the business for 40-years and I haven’t seen anything like this.

Silver looks to have double topped back in 2011 at $50, which was the 1980 highs. After double topping, Silver ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

What the huge COVID-19 testing undercount in the US means

 

What the huge COVID-19 testing undercount in the US means

Health care workers use a nasal swab to test a person for COVID-19 in Pembroke Park, Florida. Joe Raedle / Getty Images News

Courtesy of Melissa Hawkins, American University

Researchers from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and other institutions recently published a study which estimated that the true number of people infected by COVID-19 could be six to 24 times high...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Sunday, 29 March 2020, 07:00:37 PM

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Comment: Silver Shorts Are In a Bind | Ted Butler youtu.be/qQc0AoJp-Q8



Date Found: Monday, 30 March 2020, 05:21:45 PM

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Comment: 5 Questions From You for Luke Gromen youtu.be/nVZD_fuxbQE


...

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Digital Currencies

Twitter Says "Human Error" And "Spear-Phishing Attack" Responsible For Massive Bitcoin Hack

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Twitter suffered from a major hack about two weeks ago and has now said that its staff was tricked by "spear-phishing", which is a targeted attack to trick people into simply handing out their passwords. 

Twitter staff were targeted through their phones, according to a new report from the BBC. The attacks then allowed hackers the ability to Tweet from celebrity Twitter accounts. Twitter has said it was "taking a hard look" at how it could improve its permissions and processes.

"The attack on July 15, 2020, targeted a small number of employees through a phone spear phishing attack. This attack relied on ...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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