Posts Tagged ‘IFN’

Thursday – Bubble, Bubble, Toil and Trouble!

 

"I’m forever blowing bubbles, 
Pretty bubbles in the air, 
They fly so high, nearly reach the sky, 
Then like my dreams they fade and die. 
Fortune’s always hiding, 
I’ve looked everywhere, 
I’m forever blowing bubbles
Pretty bubbles in the air
."

GoldTreasuries, Junk Bonds, Netflix (we shorted them yesterday), PCLN (we shorted them Monday), Credit Default Swaps – take your pick of what is going to be the next bubble to burst.  

We shorted TLT again yesterday ($105) as I sure wouldn’t lend the US money at those rates and neither, it seems, will the "smart money" guys anymore.  The cost to hedge against losses on U.S. government debt rose to the most in six weeks as investors bet the Federal Reserve will put more cash into the economy.  Credit-default swaps on U.S. Treasuries climbed 1.7 basis points, the biggest increase in more than three weeks, to 49.4, according to data provider CMA. The Fed said Tuesday that slowing inflation and sluggish growth may require further action.  The statement positioned the central bank to expand its near-record $2.3 trillion balance sheet as soon as their November meeting – just in time for a Santa Clause boost for the markets. 

So why does this not make us bullish?  Well, as I said to Members on Tuesday, it was an anticipated statement with no immediate action and we’re at the top of a 10% run for September so, as I said in yesterday’s post, we anticipate a pullback of 2%, back to our 4% line (see post).  Also in yesterday’s post, I mentioned our IWM 9/30 $67 puts ($1.10) and the DIA Oct $105 puts (.89) both of which were good for a reload on yesterday’s silly spike, where I said to Members in the 9:56 Alert:

I like the same IWM and DIA puts as yesterday as we test 10,800 on the Dow – I don’t think it’s going to last.   Tomorrow we lose the usual 450,000 jobs for the week and we have Existing Home Sales at 10, which can now disappoint as Building Permits were a big upside surprise yesterday.  We also get Leading Economic Indicators at 10 but they are expected up just 0.1% and I doubt they go negative.  Friday we have Durable Goods, which should be down 2% and New Home Sales at 10, also now set up to disappoint even


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Phil's Favorites

Fighting historic wildfires amid bad ideas and no funding

 

Fighting historic wildfires amid bad ideas and no funding

A firefighter runs while trying to save a home near Lakeport, Calif. on July 31, 2018. AP Photo/Noah Berger, File

Courtesy of Edward Struzik, Queen's University, Ontario

Shortly after my book “Firestorm, How Wildfire Will Shape Our Future” was published in late 2017, I received a flurry of invitations to speak about the challenges of dealing with fires that are burning bigger, hotter, more often — and in increasingly unpredictable ways.

The invitations came from all over, from Los Angeles to Whiteh...



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Zero Hedge

Hedge Funds Piled Into Facebook Just Before The Crash: Full Q2 13-F Summary

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

It wasn't just David Einhorn who picked just the wrong time to dump most of his Apple stock: in the second quarter, some of the most iconic hedge funds like Duquesne’s Stanley Druckenmiller, Moore Capital Coatue Management and Jana Partners either bought or added to stakes in Facebook in the second quarter... just days before the company's biggest crash in history.

Other weres luckier, and the rich(est) got richer, as Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway boosted its stake in...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Junk Bond 12-month divergence matter this time?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Above compares the Pimco High Yield Fund (PHDAX) to the S&P 500 over the past 20-years.

Junk bonds diverged from the S&P 500 for nearly 24-months, prior to stocks peaking in 2000.

Junk bonds diverged from the S&P 500 for nearly 7-months, prior to stocks peaking in 2007.

Junk bonds have been diverging from the S&P 500 for the past 12-months. Will it be different this time?

At this time “It Doesn’t Matter Until It M...



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Insider Scoop

Morgan Stanley Incrementally Bullish On Salesforce, Says MuleSoft Deal Underappreciated

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related CRM 10 Biggest Price Target Changes For Tuesday Insider Buys Of The Week: AT&T, GE, Salesforce ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

Bitcoin Update - 6000 is support

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Demand shows it hand at support levels, well it obvious that $6000 BTCUSD is support so far.

More from RTT Tv , Ref: Brazil bitcoin currency , Brazil New Accounts
 


 

Main Chart in video



 

Sure fundamentals...



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ValueWalk

Hedge Funds Spending Close To $1M A Year On Alternative Data, But Show Me The Alpha

By Mark Melin. Originally published at ValueWalk.

It should come as no surprise to ValueWalk readers that alternative data has an obsolescence value that is negatively correlated to adoption rates. While we have noted data value dropping as usage and knowledge rise, a known concept in the hedge fund industry. What has been unknown until now is the levels to which fund managers must go to ensure the value of their alternative data does not get lost to the dulling mainstream consensus.

...

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Biotech

Here's what we know about CRISPR safety - and reports of 'genome vandalism'

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Here's what we know about CRISPR safety – and reports of 'genome vandalism'

A standee of the movie ‘Rampage’ at a theater in Bangkok, Thailand. Scientists in the film used CRISPR to create a monster. By Sarunyu L/shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jianhua Luo, University of Pittsburgh

A movie just recently released called “Rampage” features Dwayne “The Rock” Jo...



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Digital Currencies

What is a blockchain token?

 

What is a blockchain token?

What’s this digital token good for, anyway? knipsdesign/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Stephen McKeon, University of Oregon

People are just becoming acquainted with the idea of digital money in the form of cryptocurrencies like bitcoin, where transactions are recorded on a secure distributed database called a blockchain. And now along comes a new concept: the blockchain-based token, which I’ve been following as a blockchain researcher a...



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Members' Corner

There Are 3 Main Theories That Explain Trump's Approach to Putin and Russia-Which One Makes the Most Sense?

What do you think?

Thom Hartmann suggests that the "Manchurian Candidate theory" is the least likely explanation for Trump's pro-Russia behavior in "There Are 3 Main Theories That Explain Trump’s Approach to Putin and Russia—Which One Makes the Most Sense?" (below).  disagrees and suggests that Putin probably has "the goods" on Trump in "Trump’s Plot Against America". (To be fair, Hartmann acknowledges that his three theories are not mutually exclusive.) Jonathan Chait argues ...



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Mapping The Market

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

Via Jean-Luc:

Famed investor reflecting on his mistakes:

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

One that stands out for me:

Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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