Posts Tagged ‘Index Futures’

Non-Farm Friday – Will Jobs Report Restore Market Confidence?

Ouch, that really stings!  

They say you can't keep a good market down but it remains to be seen whether or not we have a good market with almost all of August and September's BS gains (see any of my posts for warnings and hedge ideaserased just 3 days into October.  

As you can see from our Big Chart, the Russell, in particular, completed it's 10% drop yesterday and, as I said to our Members in yesterday's live Chat Room as we neared the bottom:

/TF/Jasu – Just a bit oversold and, as noted yesterday (and above) it's completing a 10% drop from 1,200 at 1,080, so that's a very firm line for a bounce and that's 20% of a 120-point drop, so we're looking for 25-point bounces to 1,105 (weak) and 1,130 (strong) now.  Anything less than 1,105 today is a failure and, if not tomorrow, then expect more downside next week.  

SPY DAILY/TF is the Futures on the Russell 2000 index and already this morning we're back to 1,097, which is up $1,700 per contract (see how easy this is?) from our 1,080 entry and just a little shy of our expected weak bounce.  

We do expect resistance at 1,100 so this is a good time to take profits off the table and we can go long again over that line or flip to the S&P Futures (/ES) over 1,950 or Nasdaq (/NQ) over 4,000 or the Dow (/YM) over 16,800.  As long as they are all performing, we can be confident on the long side. 

As we discussed with our Members earlier this morning, there's no particular reason to get bullish – this is just a technical bounce we expect off our 5% lines per our 5% Rule™ and, if they trun out to be weak bounces, then we can expect another 2.5-5% of downside next week.  That means we can use those same index lines to go short if they fail as we would to go long if they succeed this morning – that will be all up
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Which Way Wednesday – Fed Edition

Wow, what a recovery!  

And wow, what complete and utter BS it is.  They NYSE is still below 11,000 (our Must Hold line) and the Russell is still below it's 50 dma and we up on less than 10% of the volume (total) that sold off for the last two weeks.  But, who cares as long as it paints a pretty picture?  

We can thank the Wall Street Journal's Fed Whisperer, John Hilsenrath with yesterday's rally as he wrote not one but TWO  articles that whipped traders into a frenzy on his "insider view" that the Fed "may keep the words "considerable time" in its policy statement."  Oh, be still my heart!  More free money?  Really?  Will wonders never cease?  

Needless to say we took the opportunity to re-short the Dow Futures (/YM) at 17,050 and the S&P Futures (/ES) at 1,993 and the Nasdaq Futures (/NQ) at 4,060 and the Nikkei Futures (/NKD) at 15,950 – all of which we discussed in yesterday's Live Trading Webinar that was, sadly, a Members only affair (but you can join us here).  

We also got a chance to short oil at $95 again (a level I published in yesterday's post) and we're thrilled with that and already this morning, it's back at $94.50 for $500 per contract gains.  For non-futures players we grabbed the SCO Sept $30s at .25 as a fun play that inventories at 10:30 won't support $95 oil in much the way Fed policies at 2pm won't support these market levels.  In fact, here's CNBC's Art Cashin telling you yesterday at noon what I told you pre-market, yesterday morning – BRILLIANT!  

 

Art's actually one of the very few Wall Street analysts I respect (and not just because he repeats what I say), I've followed him since I was a kid – he's a fantastic guy and a lot of what I share with you – I learned from him.  As you can see on the Big Chart, the Russell is the laggard and, if the indexes break higher – it's the index we'll go long on but our short bets
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Toppy Tuesday – S&P 1,950 Edition

SPX WEEKLYHere we go again!  

As you can see from Dave Fry's S&P chart, we're back in the top of the channel on a Tuesday and I will refer you to April 1st's "Triple Top Tuesday" and December 31st's "Terminal Tuesday" – both of which were points we thought the market was topping out before.  

Actually, in both cases, we did have a mild pullback, but nothing that broke the trend – so far.

Back in that December post, we were playing gold (/YG) bullish at $1,185 to finish the year, based on our premise of MORE FREE MONEY in 2014 keeping the markets afloat.  We also went bullish on SHLD at $40, which is like $30 post-spit.  

In the April post, it was our 3rd try at 1,880 on the S&P and we had just cashed out our Income Portfolio and I we lost $10 betting the Nasdaq would be above 4,200 at April expirations on a TQQQ spread (now 4,350 – so bad timing) but our support held and kept the damage to a minimum.  We also (in the morning post) called for selling the AAPL Jan $450 puts for $5.90 to pay for those spreads and AAPL just split 7:1 so those are now the $64.29 puts at .25.  7 x .25 = $1.75 so up $4.15 (70%) already on that play.  

RUT WEEKLYWe also had bullish trade ideas for HOV, CHL, FCX, ABX and RIG – right in the morning post!  Our best play, however, was shorting the Russell Futures (/TF) at 1,180 in Member Chat at 10:53 – as that was the beginning of an $9,000 per contract pullback on that index – all the way back to 1,090 (where we went long).  

As you can see from Dave's Russell chart, we're just playing a channel with our trades – it's really not that complicated.  Yesterday the Russell hit 1,180 and – guess what – we shorted it again!  Now you are catching on to our "secret" strategy!  

Already this morning the Russell Futures are down to 1,170, which is +$1,000 per contract from 1,180 but our…
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Phil's Favorites

How to make fragile global supply chains stronger and more sustainable

 

How to make fragile global supply chains stronger and more sustainable

Shipping containers are moved from the Fairview Cove Container Terminal In Halifax in May 2021. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Andrew Vaughan

Courtesy off Adel Guitouni, University of Victoria; Cynthia Waltho, University of Victoria, and Mohammadreza Nematollahi, University of Victoria

...

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Digital Currencies

Ethereum: the transformation that could see it overtake bitcoin

 

Ethereum: the transformation that could see it overtake bitcoin

The crypto wars are hotting up. Wit Olszewski

Courtesy of Daniel Broby, University of Strathclyde

The world’s second most valuable cryptocurrency, ether, has been touching all-time highs in price ahead of a major upgrade of its underlying platform, ethereum. Ether is currently worth in aggregate just shy of US$500 billion (£363 billion). That’s still slightly less than half that of the biggest cryptocurrency, bitcoin.

...

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Zero Hedge

Wait Until All These New Homebuyers See Their Property Taxes Go Up Next Year

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

To add another chapter to the "our economy is a ponzi scheme bubble that is bound to eventually burst" argument, those who went out and overpaid for property this year may wind up with a hangover in the form up skyrocketing property taxes.

We all know that higher real estate prices (hereinafter referred to as "a real estate bubble") are often praised by government and Fed officials as signs of progress for the economy. They're great news for those who already own property and terrible news for those looking to enter the m...



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Politics

Trump wants the National Archives to keep his papers away from investigators - post-Watergate laws and executive orders may not let him

 

Trump wants the National Archives to keep his papers away from investigators – post-Watergate laws and executive orders may not let him

Nixon resigned after tapes he had fought making public incriminated him in the Watergate coverup. Bettmann/Getty

Courtesy of Shannon Bow O'Brien, The University of Texas at Austin College of Liberal Arts

The National Archives is the United States’ memory, a repository of artifacts that includes everything from half-fo...



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Biotech/COVID-19

An infectious disease expert explains new federal rules on 'mix-and-match' vaccine booster shots

 

An infectious disease expert explains new federal rules on ‘mix-and-match’ vaccine booster shots

Discuss with your doctor whether or not you need a booster – and if so, which vaccine will work best for you. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News via Getty Images

Courtesy of Glenn J. Rapsinski, University of Pittsburgh Health Sciences

Many Americans now have the green light to get a COVID-19 vaccine booster – and the flexibility to receive a different brand than the ori...



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Chart School

Price and Volume Swing Analysis on Bitcoin and Silver

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Many take guidance from news, pundits or advisors. Well sometimes the swings of price and volume are a better measure of what happens next.

The big boys do not accumulate or distribute in single 1 second trade, they build positions over weeks, months and years. They use price swings in the market to build or reduce positions, and you can see their intent by studying swings of price and volume and applying Tim Ord logic as written in his book called 'The Secret Science of Price and Volume: Techniques for Spotting Market Trends, Hot Sectors, and the Best Stocks'.

Tim Ord is a follower of Richard Wyckoff logic, his book has added to the studies of Richard Wyckoff, Richard Ney and Bob Evans.

Richard Wyckoff after years of...

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Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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