Posts Tagged ‘Index Futures’

Non-Farm Friday – Will Jobs Report Restore Market Confidence?

Ouch, that really stings!  

They say you can't keep a good market down but it remains to be seen whether or not we have a good market with almost all of August and September's BS gains (see any of my posts for warnings and hedge ideaserased just 3 days into October.  

As you can see from our Big Chart, the Russell, in particular, completed it's 10% drop yesterday and, as I said to our Members in yesterday's live Chat Room as we neared the bottom:

/TF/Jasu – Just a bit oversold and, as noted yesterday (and above) it's completing a 10% drop from 1,200 at 1,080, so that's a very firm line for a bounce and that's 20% of a 120-point drop, so we're looking for 25-point bounces to 1,105 (weak) and 1,130 (strong) now.  Anything less than 1,105 today is a failure and, if not tomorrow, then expect more downside next week.  

SPY DAILY/TF is the Futures on the Russell 2000 index and already this morning we're back to 1,097, which is up $1,700 per contract (see how easy this is?) from our 1,080 entry and just a little shy of our expected weak bounce.  

We do expect resistance at 1,100 so this is a good time to take profits off the table and we can go long again over that line or flip to the S&P Futures (/ES) over 1,950 or Nasdaq (/NQ) over 4,000 or the Dow (/YM) over 16,800.  As long as they are all performing, we can be confident on the long side. 

As we discussed with our Members earlier this morning, there's no particular reason to get bullish – this is just a technical bounce we expect off our 5% lines per our 5% Rule™ and, if they trun out to be weak bounces, then we can expect another 2.5-5% of downside next week.  That means we can use those same index lines to go short if they fail as we would to go long if they succeed this morning – that will be all up
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Which Way Wednesday – Fed Edition

Wow, what a recovery!  

And wow, what complete and utter BS it is.  They NYSE is still below 11,000 (our Must Hold line) and the Russell is still below it's 50 dma and we up on less than 10% of the volume (total) that sold off for the last two weeks.  But, who cares as long as it paints a pretty picture?  

We can thank the Wall Street Journal's Fed Whisperer, John Hilsenrath with yesterday's rally as he wrote not one but TWO  articles that whipped traders into a frenzy on his "insider view" that the Fed "may keep the words "considerable time" in its policy statement."  Oh, be still my heart!  More free money?  Really?  Will wonders never cease?  

Needless to say we took the opportunity to re-short the Dow Futures (/YM) at 17,050 and the S&P Futures (/ES) at 1,993 and the Nasdaq Futures (/NQ) at 4,060 and the Nikkei Futures (/NKD) at 15,950 – all of which we discussed in yesterday's Live Trading Webinar that was, sadly, a Members only affair (but you can join us here).  

We also got a chance to short oil at $95 again (a level I published in yesterday's post) and we're thrilled with that and already this morning, it's back at $94.50 for $500 per contract gains.  For non-futures players we grabbed the SCO Sept $30s at .25 as a fun play that inventories at 10:30 won't support $95 oil in much the way Fed policies at 2pm won't support these market levels.  In fact, here's CNBC's Art Cashin telling you yesterday at noon what I told you pre-market, yesterday morning – BRILLIANT!  

 

Art's actually one of the very few Wall Street analysts I respect (and not just because he repeats what I say), I've followed him since I was a kid – he's a fantastic guy and a lot of what I share with you – I learned from him.  As you can see on the Big Chart, the Russell is the laggard and, if the indexes break higher – it's the index we'll go long on but our short bets
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Toppy Tuesday – S&P 1,950 Edition

SPX WEEKLYHere we go again!  

As you can see from Dave Fry's S&P chart, we're back in the top of the channel on a Tuesday and I will refer you to April 1st's "Triple Top Tuesday" and December 31st's "Terminal Tuesday" – both of which were points we thought the market was topping out before.  

Actually, in both cases, we did have a mild pullback, but nothing that broke the trend – so far.

Back in that December post, we were playing gold (/YG) bullish at $1,185 to finish the year, based on our premise of MORE FREE MONEY in 2014 keeping the markets afloat.  We also went bullish on SHLD at $40, which is like $30 post-spit.  

In the April post, it was our 3rd try at 1,880 on the S&P and we had just cashed out our Income Portfolio and I we lost $10 betting the Nasdaq would be above 4,200 at April expirations on a TQQQ spread (now 4,350 – so bad timing) but our support held and kept the damage to a minimum.  We also (in the morning post) called for selling the AAPL Jan $450 puts for $5.90 to pay for those spreads and AAPL just split 7:1 so those are now the $64.29 puts at .25.  7 x .25 = $1.75 so up $4.15 (70%) already on that play.  

RUT WEEKLYWe also had bullish trade ideas for HOV, CHL, FCX, ABX and RIG – right in the morning post!  Our best play, however, was shorting the Russell Futures (/TF) at 1,180 in Member Chat at 10:53 – as that was the beginning of an $9,000 per contract pullback on that index – all the way back to 1,090 (where we went long).  

As you can see from Dave's Russell chart, we're just playing a channel with our trades – it's really not that complicated.  Yesterday the Russell hit 1,180 and – guess what – we shorted it again!  Now you are catching on to our "secret" strategy!  

Already this morning the Russell Futures are down to 1,170, which is +$1,000 per contract from 1,180 but our…
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ValueWalk

Kase Learning Shorting Conference: Limited-Time Offer

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Shorting Conference: Limited-time offer for my newsletter subscribers!

We had an incredibly positive response to our inaugural Kase Learning Shorting Conference back in May. Many attendees capitalized on some of the fantastic actionable short ideas presented that day.

On Monday, December 3, we’ll be hosting our second Shorting Conference at the NY Athletic Club. We’re also going to be livestreaming the entire day if you cannot attend in person.

...



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Phil's Favorites

10 Years and 10 Lessons from the Financial Crisis

 

10 Years and 10 Lessons from the Financial Crisis

Courtesy of Cullen Roche, Pragmatic Capitalism 

10 years. It feels like yesterday. Then again, sometimes when I look at the economic data it feels like it never even happened. Whether you feel like the crisis is a distant memory or still lingering I think we can all agree that these kinds of big events serve as important lessons for understanding how we will navigate the future. So, 10 years later, here are 10 big lessons I take away from the financial crisis:

  1. Fear wins in the short-term and loses in the long-term. This is probably the number one lesson from the crisis. Human beings have been making tremendous progress for thousands of years. The fina...


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Zero Hedge

Nike Tumbles After Missing On Gross Margins; China, Latin America Sales

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Moments ago Nike reported Q1 earnings which beat on the top and bottom line, with EPS of 67c beating the estimate of 63c (with a 14% tax rate), on revenue of $9.95BN, also just above the $9.94BN, if not quite above the high end of the forecast range which stretched to $10.20BN.

This is for Nike's quarter ended August 31, which closed just a few days before the company announced its ad featuring Colin Kaepernick.

And yet, the stock reaction was rather negative, and that is being attributed to some on the modest miss in the Q1 gross margin which pr...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Canadian Dollar Attempting Bullish Breakout

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Since 2011, the Canadian Dollar has been hit hard, losing nearly a third of its value, while creating a series of lower highs and lower lows.

After declining nearly 30% into the lows of 2016, the Canadian Dollar has been attempting to change its long-term trend as it has created a series of higher lows inside of rising channel (2).

Over the past few months, rising support has been tested several times. Currently, it is attempting to break above falling resistance at (3), inside of the rising cha...



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Insider Scoop

10 Biggest Price Target Changes For Tuesday

Courtesy of Benzinga.

  • Morgan Stanley raised NuVasive, Inc. (NASDAQ: NUVA) price target from $55 to $77. NuVasive shares closed at $68.40 on Monday.
  • Citigroup cut the price target for Lam Research Corporation (NASDAQ: LRCX) from $216 to $177. Lam Research shares closed at $154.74 on Monday.
  • Stifel Nicolaus boosted the price target on Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: ALXN) from $130 to $136. Alexion Pharmaceuticals shares closed at $128.51 on Monday Monday.
  • ...


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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Sep 23, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

More saber rattling between China and the U.S. did little to distract the market.

On Tuesday, President Donald Trump reiterated his hard-line stance on China during a news conference with Polish President Andrzej Duda and said the U.S. had “no choice” but to levy another $267 billion in duties on China. That would come on top of announced tariffs on about $200 billion in Chinese goods announced late Monday.  China responded with tariffs of 5% to 10% on $60 billion worth of U.S. products that will take effect Sept. 24, and said it may introduce more measures if the U.S. goes ahead with higher tariffs.

This seems to be the prevailing thought process, ...



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Members' Corner

Why obvious lies still make good propaganda

 

This is very good; it's about "firehosing", a type of propaganda, and how it works.

Why obvious lies still make good propaganda

A 2016 report described Russian propaganda as:
• high in volume
• rapid, continuous and repetitive
• having no commitment to objective reality
• lacking consistency

...

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Digital Currencies

Mania to Mania

 

Mania to Mania

Courtesy of 

“Russell rarely played the stock market and had little investing experience when he put around $120,000 into bitcoin in November 2017.”

This comes from a CNN money article, Bitcoin crash: This man lost his savings when cryptocurrencies plunged. From January 2017 through the peak in early 2018, Ethereum gained 16,915%.

Any time you have something go vertical, you just know that some peopl...



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Biotech

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Breast cancer type 1 (BRCA1) is a human tumor suppressor gene, found in all humans. Its protein, also called by the synonym BRCA1, is responsible for repairing DNA. ibreakstock/Shutterstock.com

By Jay Shendure, University of Washington; Greg Findlay, ...



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Mapping The Market

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

Via Jean-Luc:

Famed investor reflecting on his mistakes:

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

One that stands out for me:

Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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