Posts Tagged ‘initial jobless claims’

New Jobless Claims Far Worse Than Expected

New Jobless Claims Far Worse Than Expected

Courtesy of Vincent Fernando at Clusterstock/Business Insider 

The Department of Labor’s (DOL) measure of initial jobless claims for the week ending February 20th was reported today as a seasonally-adjusted 496,000 vs. an expected 460,000 from consensus.

DOL:

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Man Without Job

 

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending Feb. 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 496,000, an increase of 22,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 474,000. The 4-week moving average was 473,750, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week’s revised average of 467,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.5 percent for the week ending Feb. 13, unchanged from the prior week’s unrevised rate of 3.5 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Feb. 13 was 4,617,000, an increase of 6,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 4,611,000. The 4-week moving average was 4,600,750, an increase of 4,250 from the preceding week’s revised average of 4,596,500.

The fiscal year-to-date average for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment for all programs is 5.209 million.

UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 452,468 in the week ending Feb. 20, a decrease of 25,767 from the previous week. There were 605,668 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009.

The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 4.2 percent during the week ending Feb. 13, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 5,527,142, a decrease of 70,546 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 4.6 percent and the volume was 6,108,398.

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending Feb. 6 were in Alaska (7.5 percent), Oregon (6.5), Idaho (6.4), Montana (6.2), Wisconsin (6.2), Michigan (5.9), Puerto Rico (5.9), Nevada (5.8), Pennsylvania (5.7), and North Carolina (5.5).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending Feb. 13 were in North Carolina (+5,897), Pennsylvania (+2,813), Kentucky (+2,510), Virginia (+559), and Puerto Rico (+468), while the largest decreases were in California (-5,540), Illinois (-3,858), New York (-2,747), Texas (-2,636), and Missouri (-2,534).

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WHAT’S ON TAP?

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

This is the biggest week of the quarter in terms of earnings.  29% of the S&P 500 will be reporting and 750 companies in total report.  The docket is loaded with energy and materials firms.   Adding to this is a heavy slate of economic news:

  • Monday: New home sales
  • Tuesday: July Conference Board Consumer Confidence, S&P/Case-Schiller Home Price Index
  • Wednesday: June durable goods orders, Federal Reserve Beige Book, weekly crude inventories
  • Thursday: weekly initial jobless claims
  • Friday: Advance Q2 GDP, July Chicago PMI

The government is auctioning off an incredible $115B in short-term notes next week.  This could create the risk of higher yields and a skittish stock market.  At some point the demand for bonds is going wane and  yields are going to spike.

The risks in this market are rapidly increasing.  There is a deep feeling of complacency in the market.  The latest AAII sentiment reading came in at 38 – a fairly neutral reading, but up substantially in the last two weeks.  Meanwhile the recent rally has been on very low volume and very questionable fundamentals:

 

bberg

 

The rapid decline in the VIX and Yen also have me feeling a bit uneasy about the current move.  The majority of the strong tech firms and banks have released earnings.  Now we’re moving into the real economy names – energy, materials and consumer related names.  I don’t expect the news to be nearly as good as we get deeper into the earnings season.  We’re also moving into a seasonal period that is very weak for the stock market.  Investors always try to anticipate the scary month of October by getting out in September.  We could see a repeat this year, especially considering the disaster we saw last year.  This is a fast moving market.  I’ll adapt with it, but for now, I am standing pat on my bullish stance with the expectation of short sellers capitulating at some point in the next week or so.  That will be your chance to move to a neutral position or get short.  Stay tuned.

 


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Zero Hedge

Will COVID-19 Lead To A Gold Standard?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Alasdair Macleod via GoldMoney.com,

Even before the coronavirus sprang upon an unprepared China the credit cycle was tipping the world into recession. The coronavirus makes an existing situation immeasurably worse, shutting down China and disrupting global supply chains to the point where large swathes of global production simply cease.

The crisis is likely to be a wake-up call for complacent investors, who are content to buy benchmark bonds i...



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Phil's Favorites

What scientists are doing to develop a vaccine for the new coronavirus

 

What scientists are doing to develop a vaccine for the new coronavirus

It is critical to learn more about SARS-CoV-2, including its source and why transmission appears to be more efficient than with previous coronaviruses. (Shutterstock)

Courtesy of Marc-Antoine De La Vega, Université Laval

With an increasing number of confirmed cases in China and 24 other countries, the COVID-19 epidemic caused by the novel coronavirus (now known as SARS-CoV-2) looks concerning to many. As of Feb. 19, the latest numbers listed 74,280 confirmed cases including 2,006 deaths. Four of these de...



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Biotech & Health

What scientists are doing to develop a vaccine for the new coronavirus

 

What scientists are doing to develop a vaccine for the new coronavirus

It is critical to learn more about SARS-CoV-2, including its source and why transmission appears to be more efficient than with previous coronaviruses. (Shutterstock)

Courtesy of Marc-Antoine De La Vega, Université Laval

With an increasing number of confirmed cases in China and 24 other countries, the COVID-19 epidemic caused by the novel coronavirus (now known as SARS-CoV-2) looks concerning to many. As of Feb. 19, the latest numbers listed 74,280 confirmed cases including 2,006 deaths. Four of these de...



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Members' Corner

Why do people believe con artists?

 

Why do people believe con artists?

Would you buy medicine from this man? Carol M. Highsmith/Wikimedia Commons

Courtesy of Barry M. Mitnick, University of Pittsburgh

What is real can seem pretty arbitrary. It’s easy to be fooled by misinformation disguised as news and deepfake videos showing people doing things they never did or said. Inaccurate information – even deliberately wrong informatio...



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The Technical Traders

Gold Rallies As Fear Take Center Stage

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Gold has rallied extensively from the lows near $1560 over the past 2 weeks.  At first, this rally didn’t catch too much attention with traders, but now the rally has reached new highs above $1613 and may attempt a move above $1750 as metals continue to reflect the fear in the global markets.

We’ve been warning our friends and followers of the real potential in precious metals for many months – actually since early 2018.  Our predictive modeling system suggests Gold will rally above $1650 very quickly, then possibly stall a bit before continuing higher to target the $1750 range.

The one thing all skilled traders must consider is the longer-term fear that is build...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Precious Metals Eyeing Breakout Despite US Dollar Strength

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Gold and silver prices have been on the rise in early 2020 as investors turn to precious metals as geopolitical concerns and news of coronavirus hit the airwaves.

The rally in gold has been impressive, with prices surging past $1600 this week (note silver is nearing $18.50).

What’s been particularly impressive about the Gold rally is that it has unfolded despite strength in the US Dollar.

In today’s chart, we look at the ratio of Gold to the US Dollar Index. As you can see, this ratio has traded in a rising channel over the past 4 years.

The Gold/US Dollar ratio is currently attempting a breakout of this rising channel at (1).

This would come on further ...



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Insider Scoop

68 Stocks Moving In Friday's Mid-Day Session

Courtesy of Benzinga

Gainers
  • Trans World Entertainment Corporation (NASDAQ: TWMC) shares climbed 120.5% to $7.72 after the company disclosed that its subsidiary etailz entered into a deal with Encina for $25 million 3-year secured revolving credit facility.
  • Celldex Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: CLDX) fell 39.8% to $3.1744. Cantor Fitzgerald initiated coverage on Celldex Therapeutics with an Overweight rating and a $8 price target.
  • TSR, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSRI) gained 36.2% to $8.17.
  • ...


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Digital Currencies

Altcoin season 2.0: why bitcoin has been outgunned by crypto rivals since new year

 

Altcoin season 2.0: why bitcoin has been outgunned by crypto rivals since new year

‘We have you surrounded!’ Wit Olszewski

Courtesy of Gavin Brown, Manchester Metropolitan University and Richard Whittle, Manchester Metropolitan University

When bitcoin was trading at the dizzying heights of almost US$2...



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ValueWalk

What US companies are saying about coronavirus impact

By Aman Jain. Originally published at ValueWalk.

With the coronavirus outbreak coinciding with the U.S. earnings seasons, it is only normal to expect companies to talk about this deadly virus in their earnings conference calls. In fact, many major U.S. companies not only talked about coronavirus, but also warned about its potential impact on their financial numbers.

Q4 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Coronavirus impact: many US companies unclear

According to ...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Tuesday, 01 October 2019, 02:18:22 AM

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Comment: Wall of worry, or cliff of despair!



Date Found: Tuesday, 01 October 2019, 06:54:30 AM

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Comment: Interesting.. Hitler good for the German DAX when he was winning! They believed .. until th...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

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Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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