Posts Tagged ‘initial jobless claims’

New Jobless Claims Far Worse Than Expected

New Jobless Claims Far Worse Than Expected

Courtesy of Vincent Fernando at Clusterstock/Business Insider 

The Department of Labor’s (DOL) measure of initial jobless claims for the week ending February 20th was reported today as a seasonally-adjusted 496,000 vs. an expected 460,000 from consensus.

DOL:

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Man Without Job

 

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending Feb. 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 496,000, an increase of 22,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 474,000. The 4-week moving average was 473,750, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week’s revised average of 467,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.5 percent for the week ending Feb. 13, unchanged from the prior week’s unrevised rate of 3.5 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Feb. 13 was 4,617,000, an increase of 6,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 4,611,000. The 4-week moving average was 4,600,750, an increase of 4,250 from the preceding week’s revised average of 4,596,500.

The fiscal year-to-date average for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment for all programs is 5.209 million.

UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 452,468 in the week ending Feb. 20, a decrease of 25,767 from the previous week. There were 605,668 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009.

The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 4.2 percent during the week ending Feb. 13, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 5,527,142, a decrease of 70,546 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 4.6 percent and the volume was 6,108,398.

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending Feb. 6 were in Alaska (7.5 percent), Oregon (6.5), Idaho (6.4), Montana (6.2), Wisconsin (6.2), Michigan (5.9), Puerto Rico (5.9), Nevada (5.8), Pennsylvania (5.7), and North Carolina (5.5).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending Feb. 13 were in North Carolina (+5,897), Pennsylvania (+2,813), Kentucky (+2,510), Virginia (+559), and Puerto Rico (+468), while the largest decreases were in California (-5,540), Illinois (-3,858), New York (-2,747), Texas (-2,636), and Missouri (-2,534).

Read the official release here > 

 


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WHAT’S ON TAP?

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WHAT’S ON TAP?

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

This is the biggest week of the quarter in terms of earnings.  29% of the S&P 500 will be reporting and 750 companies in total report.  The docket is loaded with energy and materials firms.   Adding to this is a heavy slate of economic news:

  • Monday: New home sales
  • Tuesday: July Conference Board Consumer Confidence, S&P/Case-Schiller Home Price Index
  • Wednesday: June durable goods orders, Federal Reserve Beige Book, weekly crude inventories
  • Thursday: weekly initial jobless claims
  • Friday: Advance Q2 GDP, July Chicago PMI

The government is auctioning off an incredible $115B in short-term notes next week.  This could create the risk of higher yields and a skittish stock market.  At some point the demand for bonds is going wane and  yields are going to spike.

The risks in this market are rapidly increasing.  There is a deep feeling of complacency in the market.  The latest AAII sentiment reading came in at 38 – a fairly neutral reading, but up substantially in the last two weeks.  Meanwhile the recent rally has been on very low volume and very questionable fundamentals:

 

bberg

 

The rapid decline in the VIX and Yen also have me feeling a bit uneasy about the current move.  The majority of the strong tech firms and banks have released earnings.  Now we’re moving into the real economy names – energy, materials and consumer related names.  I don’t expect the news to be nearly as good as we get deeper into the earnings season.  We’re also moving into a seasonal period that is very weak for the stock market.  Investors always try to anticipate the scary month of October by getting out in September.  We could see a repeat this year, especially considering the disaster we saw last year.  This is a fast moving market.  I’ll adapt with it, but for now, I am standing pat on my bullish stance with the expectation of short sellers capitulating at some point in the next week or so.  That will be your chance to move to a neutral position or get short.  Stay tuned.

 


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