Posts Tagged ‘international trade’

Federal Reserve Officials: Americans Are Saving Too Much Money So We Need To Purposely Generate More Inflation To Get Them Spending Again

Federal Reserve Officials: Americans Are Saving Too Much Money So We Need To Purposely Generate More Inflation To Get Them Spending Again

Courtesy of Michael Snyder at Economic Collapse 

Some top Federal Reserve officials have come up with a really bizarre proposal for stimulating the U.S. economy.  As unbelievable as it sounds, what they actually propose to do is to purposely raise the rate of inflation so that Americans will stop saving so much money and will start spending wildly again.  The idea behind it is that if inflation rises a couple of percentage points, but consumers are only earning half a percent (or less) on their savings accounts, then there will be an incentive for consumers to spend that money as the value of it deteriorates sitting in the bank. 

Yes, that is how bizarre things have gotten.  It is not as if U.S. consumers are even saving that much money.  Several decades ago, Americans typically saved between 8 and 12 percent of their incomes, but over this past decade the personal saving rate got down near zero a number of times as Americans were living far beyond their means. Once the recession hit, Americans very wisely started saving more money, and so now the personal saving rate has been hovering around the 5 to 7 percent range.  This is well below historical levels, but the folks at the Fed apparently are eager for Americans to pull that money out and start spending it again.

In an article entitled "Fed Officials Mull Inflation as a Fix", Wall Street Journal columnist Sudeep Reddy described this bizarre new economic approach that some over at the Federal Reserve are now advocating….   

"But as the U.S. economy struggles and flirts with the prospect of deflation, some central bank officials are publicly broaching a controversial idea: lifting inflation above the Fed’s informal target."

Does increasing inflation as a way to stimulate the economy sound like a good idea to any of you?…
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Winners And Losers

Winners And Losers

Courtesy of Michael Snyder at Economic Collapse 

When you mention the word "globalism" to most people, they think of something that is going to happen someday in the future.  But the truth is that globalism is already here.  At this point we essentially already have a one world economy.  Goods and services flow across national borders more freely today than at any other point in human history.  A major economic event on one side of the world instantly affects financial markets on the other side of the world.  Labor has become a truly global commodity.  You can go to the exact same fast food restaurant or buy the exact same iPod on six different continents.  A whole host of international trade agreements are making national borders economically irrelevant. 

Today our "big box" stores and shopping malls are jammed full with products that have been made overseas and it is becoming increasingly difficult to find American-made products.  The reality is that it has now become undeniable that globalism has arrived and we are now part of a world economy that is integrating at lightning speed.  Unfortunately, all of this globalism has created some very clear winners and losers.  But most middle class Americans are in such a deep sleep that they don’t even realize that they are the losers.

The sad truth is that as work has become a global commodity, middle class American workers have been placed in direct competition with the cheapest labor in the world.  For years the U.S. economy was so strong that nobody really noticed that it was bleeding thousands of jobs every single month.  But now that 14 million Americans are unemployed and the U.S. economy is literally hemorrhaging jobs people are starting to sit up and take notice.

Let’s take a look at one recent example.  Ford Motor Company has just announced the closure of a facility that produces the Ford Ranger in St. Paul, Minnesota.  Approximately 750 good paying jobs are going to be lost.

But isn’t Ford doing better these days?

Sure.

Don’t people still need Ford Rangers?

Of course they do.

Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty even offered Ford a multi-million dollar incentive package full of tax cuts…
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Repairing China’s financial system

Repairing China’s financial system

Courtesy of Michael Pettis of China Financial Markets

BEJING SHOW BEIJING CHINA

The stock market had a bad day today, with the SSE Composite down 3.62%, mainly on rumors that banks will be seeking to raise equity capital next year in response to their loan surge this year.  On Tuesday Bloomberg reported that the five largest banks were supposed to have submitted plans to regulators for raising money, after unprecedented lending eroded their capital.

I would argue that a more compelling reason to raise capital is the almost-certain surge in NPLs over the next three or four years.  In fact I am pretty surprised that these rumors caught the market by surprise.  Every time that banks have engineered a policy-induced surge in lending, they have followed up with a surge in NPLs [non-performing loans], and it would be pretty extraordinary if this time were any different.  A refusal to raise capital levels would have been very imprudent, and it is pretty clear that the PBoC and the CBRC are already worried about the impacts of the credit expansion on the banking system.

Raising capital by selling equity is one way for banks to protect themselves from the consequences of bad lending, but I have been arguing for a long time that the main way banks have been recapitalized in the past has been the very wide spread between the PBoC-mandated lending and deposit rates.  This was more or less confirmed in an interesting but perhaps little noticed speech last week by Governor Zhou.  According to an article in Reuters,

China needs to maintain a certain spread between deposit and lending rates in order for banks to be able to support the economy, Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of the People’s Bank of China, said on Friday. The central bank sets a ceiling on the rates banks may pay depositors and a floor on their lending rates. The built-in margin is a rich source of profit for Chinese banks that strengthens their balance sheets.

Lujiazui Finance and Trade Zone, Pudong, Shanghai, China

Speaking at a forum, the central bank chief also said China must ensure that its pro-investment policies do not lead to overcapacity, which he said was already plaguing some sectors.

The low deposit rates mean that Chinese savers are effectively being taxed to replenish bank capital.  Although this may be…
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China Requests Debate on Reserve Currency at G14 Summit

China Requests Debate on Reserve Currency at G14 Summit

Le Café AméricainCourtesy of Jesse’s Café Américain

China is proposing a new reserve currency regime less dependent on the dollar, along with other BRIC countries, and the US and its financial allies in the status quo will resist change because it is in their short term interest to do so.

China can take ‘pre-emptive’ action by diversifying its holdings ahead of any change, and there are some indications that it is doing so already. But while the dollar is the prime medium of international trade, China must buy dollars to support its mercantilist industrial policy. Its own alternative is to boost its domestic consumption and ‘grow a middle class’ which in some minds erodes the power of the narrow political elite which rules the country.

The US needs to stand firm in some areas, and acquiesce in others. Standing firm with regard to the yuan being free of a peg and currency controls is one area that ought to have been sine qua non when first Clinton and then Bush gave China its openings as a preferred trading partner even while maintaining de facto industrial subsidies through its currency and markets.

The first line of negotiation will be to agree on a dollar substitute, which will probably be the SDR. The US will resist and delay this as long as is possible.

British EmpireThe fallback position then will be the composition of the SDR, and a long phasing of the change in the primacy of the dollar and a few G7 currencies. China will seek more diversity and the inclusion of gold and silver, which is anathema to the Wall Street banking cartel.

The US must change or face more seismic, involuntary dislocations. As Britain surrendered its far flung colonial Empire, so the US must downsize its financial sector, restore balance to its own economy and its place in the world economy, and relinquish the primary reserve currency status which has become a powerful instrument of manipulation by the Wall Street banking cartel.

The dollar is the last, the mother of bubbles. Few understand this even now.

The epic US credit expansion was enabled by the preferred position of US debt instruments as the reserve currency of the world. The bond and the dollar are the absolute foundation of that debt pyramid.

Those days are undeniably over.


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Phil's Favorites

Ransomware can interfere with elections and fuel disinformation - basic cybersecurity precautions are key to minimizing the damage

 

Ransomware can interfere with elections and fuel disinformation – basic cybersecurity precautions are key to minimizing the damage

Ransomware attacks often strike local government computer systems, which poses a challenge for protecting elections. PRImageFactory/iStock via Getty Images

Courtesy of Richard Forno, University of Maryland, Baltimore County

Government computer systems in Hall County, Georgia, including a voter signature database, were ...



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Zero Hedge

In Unprecedented Cost-Cutting, Exxon Is Firing 15% Of Its Workers To Keep Dividend

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

It may sound unbelievable that just seven years ago Exxon was the world's largest company.

Of course, all that changed with the advent of the FAAMGs and the Fed blowing the biggest tech bubble in history which together with the plunge in the price of oil, meant the market cap of Exxon has tumbled to just $136BN, below that of Zoom. Yes, we have gotten to the point in the bubble where a video chat with no barriers to entry, zero infrastructure and barely any profit is more val...



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ValueWalk

Donald Trump Is Headed For Another Shocking Victory: How To Position Your Portfolio For This "Obvious" Outcome

By David Pinsen. Originally published at ValueWalk.

I predict President Trump will win re-election with 312 electoral votes. Here I’ll show how I came up with that prediction, and how you can bet on it (or against it). I’ll also show how you can protect your portfolio against the risk of a disputed election.

Electoral Vote Prediction: 312-226 Obvious In Hindsight

The author’s election prediction. 

The winner of the 2016 Presidential election will seem obvious in hindsight. If former Vice President Joe Biden wins, that will be consistent with the polls.

The RealClearPolitics National Polling Average

However, pollster Robert Cahaly of the Trafalgar Group argues that many ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Is the Nasdaq About To Fall 25 Percent?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Technology is the lifeblood of our current economy and dictates future innovation. The sector has also taken a primary leadership role in the 11-year bull market.

But, as most of you are aware, that doesn’t mean that tech stocks are always smooth sailing. In fact, the Nasdaq and tech stocks can be a bumpy ride! Just check out today’s chart!

Displayed here is a “monthly” chart of the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) which highlights some a handful of large bearish reversal patterns.

The month of...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Achieving COVID-19 herd immunity through infection is dangerous, deadly and might not even work

 

Achieving COVID-19 herd immunity through infection is dangerous, deadly and might not even work

Under relaxed public health restrictions, deaths will spike far before herd immunity is achieved. AP Photo/Mark Lennihan

Courtesy of Steven Albert, University of Pittsburgh

White House advisers have made the case recently for a “natural” approach to herd immunity as a way to reduce the need for ...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Monday, 18 May 2020, 03:35:21 AM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: Ooh so pretty, so pretty, ooh so!



Date Found: Thursday, 21 May 2020, 01:03:17 AM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: Charlie Lee: All Things Litecoin (#MimbleWimble, ...



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Politics

How to track your mail-in ballot

 

How to track your mail-in ballot

Make sure you know when your ballot is arriving, and whether it’s been accepted for counting back at your election office. erhui1979/DigitalVision Vectors via Getty Images

Courtesy of Steven Mulroy, University of Memphis

Many voters who want to participate in the election by mail are concerned about when they’ll receive their ballot – and whether it will get back in time to be counted.

The pandemic has caused interest in ...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin: the UK and US are clamping down on crypto trading - here's why it's not yet a big deal

 

Bitcoin: the UK and US are clamping down on crypto trading – here's why it's not yet a big deal

Where there’s a bit there’s a writ. Novikov Aleksey

Courtesy of Gavin Brown, University of Liverpool

The sale and promotion of derivatives of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to amateur investors is being banned in the UK by the financial regulator, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). It is a...



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Mapping The Market

COVID-19 Forces More Than Half of Asset Management Firms to Accelerate Adoption of Digital Marketing Technology

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

There is no doubt that the use of technology to support client engagement initiatives brings both opportunities and threats but this has been brought into sharp focus this year with the COVID-19 pandemic.

The crisis has brought to the fore the need for firms to enable flexibility in client engagement – the expectation that providers will communicate to clients on their terms, at their speed and frequency and on their preferred channels, is now a given. This is even more critical when clients are experiencing unparalleled anxiety from both market conditions and their own personal circumstances.

...

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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

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Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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