Posts Tagged ‘investor psychology’

Investor Psychology Cycle – Are We “There” Yet?

Investor Psychology Cycle – Are We “There” Yet?

Courtesy of Prieur du Plessis at Investment Postcards from Cape Town 

As the pendulum swings between greed and fear, investors typically become over-enthusiastic during bull markets and over-despondent as the bear’s growl grows louder.

It stands to reason that in order to be a successful investor, it is important to distance yourself from the herd mentality and to take objective decisions based on fundamental reasons.

The typical behaviour of investors is linked to the so-called investor psychology cycle, as illustrated below.

Before seeking to apply the cycle to the present stock market situation, let’s consider a short definition of each of the stages.

Contempt: According to the cycle, a bull market typically starts when a market is at a low and investors scorn stocks.

Doubt and suspicion: They try to decide whether what they have left should be invested in a safe haven such as a money market fund. They have burnt their fingers with stocks and vow never to invest again.

Caution: The market then gradually starts showing signs of recovery. Most investors remain cautious, but prudent investors are already drooling at the possibility of profit.

Confidence: As stock prices rise, investors’ feeling of mistrust changes to confidence and ultimately to enthusiasm. Most investors start buying their stocks at this stage.

Enthusiasm: During the enthusiasm stage, prudent investors are already starting to take profits and get out of the stock market, because they realize that the bull market is coming to an end.

Greed and conviction: Investors’ enthusiasm is followed by greed, which is often accompanied by numerous IPOs on the stock market.

Indifference: Investors look beyond unsustainably high price-earnings ratios.

Dismissal: As the market declines, investors show a lack or interest that quickly turns to dismissal.

Denial: Then they reach the denial stage where they regularly affirm their belief that the market definitely cannot fall any further.

Fear, panic and contempt: Concern starts to take a hold and fear, panic and despair soon follow. Investors again start scorning the market and once again they vow never to invest in stocks again.

In order to determine where in the stock market cycle we find ourselves, the challenge is to identify the prevalent stage of the psychological…
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MAUBOUSSIN ON INVESTOR PSYCHOLOGY

MAUBOUSSIN ON INVESTOR PSYCHOLOGY

Courtesy of Pragcap (and Credit Writedowns

Thanks to Credit Writedowns for pointing us in the direction of this excellent video on investor psychology.  Mauboussin is a money manager at Legg Mason and is always worth listening to:


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Michael Mauboussin on investor psychology

Michael Mauboussin on investor psychology

Courtesy of Edward Harrison at Credit Writedowns 

The Cabalistic analysis

When I was in business school in the mid-1990s I took a securities analysis class with Michael Mauboussin, who was an Adjunct Professor then working at Credit Suisse First Boston (he’s now at Legg Mason).  The class, which focused a lot on investor psychology, heuristics and the like made an indelible impression on me and cemented my aversion to the whole random walk, efficient market hypothesis claptrap.

Mauboussin would give us little experiments that proved his points. I pointed to one on investor overconfidence in a post I wrote in December 2008.

All of us have a bias that reinforces a false belief in the certainty of what we believe to be true. It’s called the overconfidence effect. Basically, we construct a mental map in our minds of what is probable and what is improbable. Over time, these beliefs harden and become what is certain and what is certainly not. I got a true test of this in business school.

My professor asked us some off the wall question like how much does the earth weigh. After we wrestled with the question and wrote down our answers, he then asked us to put a 95% confidence interval around the answer. He said give me a range of numbers that you believe the earth’s weight is 95% certain to be in. We mulled this over and answered. Result? Our 95% confidence interval was wrong something like 40% of the time within the class. Why?

Basically, by asking us the first question: how much does the earth weigh and giving us a chance to think about it, our professor was secretly giving our little pea brains a chance to become overconfident. By the time he asked us the second question, we had become anchored to the first answer. Essentially, he asked us to think outside the box and the mix of our overconfidence and anchoring caused us to make catastrophically wrong answers.

That’s how humans work. And this was a


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Phil's Favorites

Why hearsay isn't a problem for Congress in impeachment hearings

 

Why hearsay isn't a problem for Congress in impeachment hearings

I heard him saying… ASDF_MEDIA/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of James Steiner-Dillon, University of Dayton

Wednesday’s testimony by U.S. Ambassador to the European Union Gordon Sondland included the allegation that Sondland pushed Ukraine to investigate the Biden family in exchange for U.S. political support at the “...



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Zero Hedge

"It's Not Sustainable:" PG&E Rolling Blackouts To Hit 181,000 Customers Wednesday 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Seriously, every time the wind blows in California, it transforms into a third world country with rolling blackouts. And if you've ever been to let's say South America where this happens frequently, it's not a pleasant thing to experience. 

So Californians will get another taste of what it's like to live in Venezuela or Argentina on Wednesday. Nearly 181,00 customers in Northern California on early Wednesday will see their power cutoff so that Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) can avoid sparking another deadly wildfire. 

...



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Insider Scoop

GM Sues Fiat Chrysler, Alleges Racketeering And Corruption In UAW Negotiations

Courtesy of Benzinga

General Motors Company (NYSE: GM) is suing rival Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV (NYSE: FCAU), alleging Fiat executives bribed union officials to gain an advantage over GM in how its contracts were structured.

The alleged corruption has also been the focus of a federal criminal probe into Fiat Chrysler and the Unit...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

New York Stock Exchange Double Topping or Sending A Strong Bullish Message?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

A very broad index is testing last year’s highs, as monthly momentum is creating lower highs? Which indicator is more important, price or momentum?

This chart looks at the New York Stock Exchange Index (NYSE) on a monthly basis over the past 15-years.

The index peaked in January of 2018, as momentum was the highest since the peak in 2007.

The rally off the lows around Christmas last year, has the index testing the highs of January 2018. While the rally has taken place over the past 12-months, lofty momentum has created a series of lower highs.

Can you believe th...



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Lee's Free Thinking

NY Department of Welfare Announces Increased Subsidies for Primary Dealers, Thank God!

 

NY Department of Welfare Announces Increased Subsidies for Primary Dealers, Thank God!

Courtesy of , Wall Street Examiner

Here’s today’s press release (11/14/19) from the NY Fed verbatim. They’ve announced that they will be making special holiday welfare payments to the Primary Dealers this Christmas season. I have highlighted the relevant text.

The Open Market Trading Desk (the Desk) at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has released the schedule of repurchase agreement (repo)...



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The Technical Traders

VIX Warns Of Imminent Market Correction

Courtesy of Technical Traders

The VIX is warning that a market peak may be setting up in the global markets and that investors should be cautious of the extremely low price in the VIX. These extremely low prices in the VIX are typically followed by some type of increased volatility in the markets.

The US Federal Reserve continues to push an easy money policy and has recently begun acquiring more dept allowing a deeper move towards a Quantitative Easing stance. This move, along with investor confidence in the US markets, has prompted early warning signs that the market has reached near extreme levels/peaks. 

Vix Value Drops Before Monthly Expiration

When the VIX falls to levels below 12~13, this typically v...



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Biotech

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

A vial of insulin. Prices for the drug, crucial for those with diabetes, have soared in recent years. Oleksandr Nagaiets/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Vanderbilt University

About 7.4 million people ...



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Chart School

Dow Jones cycle update and are we there yet?

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Today the Dow and the SP500 are making new all time highs. However all long and strong bull markets end on a new all time high. Today no one knows how many new all time highs are to go, maybe 1 or 100+ more to go, who knows! So are we there yet?

readtheticker.com combine market tools from Richard Wyckoff, Jim Hurst and William Gann to understand and forecast price action. In concept terms (in order), demand and supply, market cycles, and time to price analysis. 

Cycle are excellent to understand the wider picture, after all markets do not move in a straight line and bear markets do follow bull markets. 



CHART 1: The Dow Jones Industrial average with the 900 period cycle.

A) Red Cycle:...

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Digital Currencies

Is Bitcoin a Macro Asset?

 

Is Bitcoin a Macro Asset?

Courtesy of 

As part of Coindesk’s popup podcast series centered around today’s Invest conference, I answered a few questions for Nolan Bauerly about Bitcoin from a wealth management perspective. I decided in December of 2017 that investing directly into crypto currencies was unnecessary and not a good use of a portfolio’s allocation slots. I remain in this posture today but I am openminded about how this may change in the future.

You can listen to this short exchange below:

...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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