Posts Tagged ‘ISIS’

Thrilling Thursday – S&P 2,000!!! Again…

Wheeeee, what a ride!  

This is why we use hedges – they kept us from stopping out of our long positions during the dip and, since our long positions pay off in a flat or up market, anything not down is VERY profitable for our Long-Term positions, which outnumber our bearish Short-Term hedges by 10:1 in our Income Portfolio and Long-Term Portfolio.  

Markets do, indeed go up AND down on a pretty regular basis and we've made a lot of bottom calls this week, adding more long positions as we got a nice pullback.  Now we have the bounces we predicted and we'll just have to wait and see if our strong bounce lines hold up for the week.  Yesterday morning, before the Market, our 5% Rule™ predicted we'd see:

  • Dow 17,100 (weak) and 17,150 (strong) – Now 17,210
  • S&P 1,990 (weak) and 1,995 (strong) – Now 1,998
  • Nasdaq 4,525 (weak) and 4,550 (strong) – Now 4,555
  • NYSE 10,875 (weak) and 10,950 (strong) – Now 10,885
  • Russell 1,125 (weak) and 1,135 (strong) – Now 1,128

RUT WEEKLYSo we have 3 greens and two in-betweens and that's certainly enough to get us to stop being bearish but not quite enough to turn us bullish yet.  If we are holding the Strong Bounce lines on the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq, however, we could go long on the Russell, with the …
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Deja Thursday – The Coalition of the Willing is Back in Business!

We're back in business baby!  

It's been 12 years since GW Bush first assembled the "Coalition of the Willing" in November of 2002 (a full year after we were attacked by 15 Saudi hijackers), to go after Osama Bin Laden, (who was hiding in Afghanistan) by attacking Iraq.  Interestingly, Bush only stole that phrase from Bill Clinton (what, you thought Bush had an original thought?), who first mentioned it in a 1994 interview

Now, in 2014, we're ready to go back to war – in Iraq (did we ever really leave?) – with another coalition of the willing staring most of the same players but this time, we have Germany on our side – so you know we're serious.  According to the WSJ, they've already spotted a training camp for Syrian rebels in Saudi Arabia and – oops, wait – that's being run by us – WE'RE arming and training Syrian rebels – what can go wrong?

ShiftingGround

Well, as they say, politics make strange Bedouin fellows and I guess we'll ignore the fact that the current ISIS rebels were the same people we armed and trained to fight Saddam 12 years ago.  While we're training and arming Syrians in Saudi Arabia, we'll be bombing their country as well.  Again, this is pretty much how we handled Iraq but hey – at least we're consistent!  

At PSW, we're consistent too.  While we love war as much as any other red-blooded Americans, we question this one as well – even when there's a Democrat in charge.  It's funny because, just the other day, I suggested that Congress, rather than rejecting the call for $40M to help combat Eblola (as they just did), could have scraped together that money by simply firing one less $1M Tomahawk missile each week.  I was wrong, and I apologize – it turns out they cost $1.41M each.  

This is, of course, great news for RTN, whose stock has already run up 13% in the past 30 days as the fear of peace flushes out of the stock price.  If you want to
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Monday Market Mayhem – Bombs Fly, Markets Fly – Why Not?

America F*ck Yeah!  

From Ferguson to Fallujah, America has spent the weekend kicking ass and taking names with the National Guard rushing in to put down the 99% in Missouri while in Mosul, we're bombing the Middle East's 99% off the dams and picking off the stragglers with high-tech drones – F*ck Yeah!  

That, combined with what we can politely call a non-escalation of tensions in the Ukraine has sent the price of oil tumbling by 0.75 this morning, good for $750 per contract from our Friday short (and now we're long at $94 on /CLV4 for October) - F*ck Yeah!  Index futures were up slightly in Asia but gathered steam in Europe and markets there are coming out of lunch up over 1% – even as the cease-fire in Gaza is about to end.  

Meanwhile, over in Hong Kong, we got a powerful lesson in numbers as the 1.3Bn population of China is able to overwhelm that Island's 7M people (0.5% of China's population) at will and that will was exercised this weekend as China staged "Pro-Beijing" rallies that protested the "Occupy Central" rallies the bottom 99% of Hong Kong had been staging.   Can anti-democracy rallies be far behind?  

The anti-Occupy Central campaign's focus on the impact of civil disobedience has appealed to the pragmatism of many Hong Kong people. While many support democracy, they also just want to live their lives and go to work unimpeded.  "We can't be optimistic at all—the pro-Beijing camp will control the entire list of candidates," said Joseph Cheng, a political-science professor and convener of the Alliance for True Democracy, a coalition of democratic parties supporting Occupy Central.

In short, while China did promise to give Hong Kong the right to vote – they never said they wouldn't stuff the ballot boxes or put up candidates that were nothing more than two different flavors of the same puppets.  "If we are buying fruit, don't give us three rotten oranges to choose from," one of the activists said.  Oh wait, that might have been our own election coverage – it's so hard to keep these totalitarian regimes straight

Still it's VICTORY…
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Dow Chemical Option Bulls and Bears on the Prowl

Today’s tickers: DOW, GLD, ISIS, DTV, SINA, XOM, SPWRA, AGO & SINA

DOW – The Dow Chemical Co. – Shares of the manufacturer of chemicals and plastic materials increased 2% during the trading session to $29.45. We observed a mix of bullish and bearish option plays on the stock today. One investor appears to have unraveled an in-the-money ratio call spread in the December contract in order to finance the purchase of 7,500 calls at the December 28 strike for 1.92 apiece. Further along, in the January 2010 contract, another bullish player rolled a long call position to a higher strike price. It looks like the investor originally paid between 2.35 to 3.30 in premium to buy 5,000 calls at the now deep-in-the-money January 24 strike back on September 14, 2009. Today the trader closed out the December 24 strike calls by selling 5,000 contracts for 5.30 each. The closing sale of the calls was spread against the purchase of 5,000 fresh call options at the higher January 28 strike for about 2.45 premium per contract. Finally, protective plays dominated the March 2010 contract. Two put spreads were established this afternoon. The first transaction involved the purchased of 5,000 puts at the March 27 strike for 2.08 each, marked against the sale of the same number of puts at the lower March 20 strike for 47 cents apiece. The net cost of the trade amounts to 1.61 per contract and yields protection beneath the breakeven price of $25.39. The other put spread involved the same number of put options but was transacted at the March 26/19 strikes at a net cost of 1.38 per contract. Downside protection on this play kicks in if shares decline through the breakeven point at $24.62 by expiration day in March.

GLD – SPDR Gold Trust ETF – More than 253,800 option contracts changed hands on the GLD with about 30 minutes remaining in the trading day. Investors traded calls on the exchange-traded fund more than 1.8 times to each put option in play. Shares of the GLD, which replicates the performance of the price of gold bullion, are up 0.25% in late-day trading to stand at $111.90. A large-volume ratio call spread on the fund suggests some investors expect the price of gold to rise sharply by expiration in January 2010. Bullish traders bought approximately 15,000 calls at the January 112 strike for an…
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Phil's Favorites

Navigating a new digital era means changing the world economic order

 

Navigating a new digital era means changing the world economic order

Online shopping and services have grown during COVID-19. Natee Photo/Shutterstock

Courtesy of Shamel Azmeh, University of Manchester

COVID-19 has accelerated the growth in the digital economy through a dramatic increase in working from home, online shopping, digital entertainment, online services, among other areas. Ideas such as telemigration in which people from different part...



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Biotech/COVID-19

World's worst pandemic leaders: 5 presidents and prime ministers who badly mishandled COVID-19

 

World's worst pandemic leaders: 5 presidents and prime ministers who badly mishandled COVID-19

Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko visits a hospital for COVID-19 patients, unmasked, in Minsk on Nov. 27, 2020. Andrei Stasevich\TASS via Getty Images

By Sumit Ganguly, Indiana University; Dorothy Chin, University of California, Los Angeles; ...



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Zero Hedge

WTI Extends JCPOA Whipsaw Losses After Small Crude Build

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

A volatile in the energy complex as Iran nuke deal headlines (first optimism, then pessimism) sparked a dump-n-pump in crude prices (after Brent tagged $70 earlier in the day).

“I said that significant progress have been achieved, in my view,” Ulyanov said in the tweet.

“That is true. But unresolved issues still remain and the negotiators need more time and efforts to finalise an agreement on restoration of JCPOA.”

A return to the 2015 nuclear deal could allow for the remova...



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Politics

As the Palestinian minority takes to the streets, Israel is having its own Black Lives Matter moment

 

As the Palestinian minority takes to the streets, Israel is having its own Black Lives Matter moment

Israeli-arabs gesture and wave Palestinian flags at Israelis in a Jewish community building, during renewed riots in the city of Lod on May 11. Oren Ziv/picture alliance via Getty Images

Courtesy of James L. Gelvin, University of California, Los Angeles

The images and reports coming from Israel, Jerusale...



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Digital Currencies

Dogecoin Soars After Musk Tweets "Working With Doge Developers To Improve System Efficiency"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Just when you thought things couldn't get any more surreal after the past 24 hours, moments ago Elon Musk, who last night rejected bitcoin because its mining is "bad for the environment" as it consumes a lot of electricity (just wait until Elon discovers how all those rare earth metals that are in every electric car are mined, or what those electric cars run on), moments ago Musk poked the hornets nest again, and shortly after tweeting that 'it's high time there was a carbon tax'...

It is high time there was a carbon tax!

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 13, 2021

...

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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Sunday, 22 November 2020, 05:47:49 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: Bitcoin ambitions ...



Date Found: Sunday, 22 November 2020, 05:48:34 PM

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Comment: PMI juiced back up ...



Date Found: Sunday, 22 November 2020, 05:49:42 PM
...

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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Will Historic Selloff In Treasury Bonds Turn Into Opportunity?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Long-dated treasury bonds have been crushed over the past year, sending ETFs like TLT (20+ Year US Treasury Bond ETF) spiraling over 20%.

Improving economy? Inflation concerns? Perhaps a combination of both… interest rates have risen sharply and thus bond prices have fallen in historic fashion.

Today’s chart looks at $TLT over the past 20 years. As you can see, the recent decline has truly been historic. $TLT’s price has swung from historically overbought highs to oversold lows.

At present, the long-dated bond ETF ($TLT) is trading 7.8% below its 200-...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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Promotions

Phil's Stock World's Weekly Webinar - March 10, 2021

Don't miss our latest weekly webinar! 

Join us at PSW for LIVE Webinars every Wednesday afternoon at 1:00 PM EST.

Phil's Stock World's Weekly Webinar – March 10, 2021

 

Major Topics:

00:00:01 - EIA Petroleum Status Report
00:04:42 - Crude Oil WTI
00:12:52 - COVID-19 Update
00:22:08 - Bonds and Borrowed Funds | S&P 500
00:45:28 - COVID-19 Vaccination
00:48:32 - Trading Techniques
00:50:34 - PBR
00:50:43 - LYG
00:50:48 - More Trading Techniques
00:52:59 - Chinese Hacks Microsoft's E...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.